Metropolis Training Center Middle East Branch Mashhad
Management of Urban Sprawl and Unofficial Se6lements 2: Urban Expansion Interna=onal Workshop Metropolis Training Center, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran September 27-‐30, 2010
Metropolis Training Center Middle East Branch Mashhad
27/9/10
We are near the home of ci=es
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Outline
Dimensions of global urban growth Urban expansion The roots of urban growth Urbanisa=on and systems of ci=es Explicit na=onal urban policy Implicit na=onal urban policy Na=onal urban policy and urban growth management
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Almost all of world net popula=on growth is urban
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Dimensions of global urban growth
• Passed ‘urban =pping point’ now • Centre stage in global considera=ons: – Climate change – GFC and fiscal s=mulus – Country compe=veness posi=oning
• Cri=cal to development planning • Correlated with produc=vity, wealth • But not equity – widening dispari=es 27/9/10
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A world of ci=es (1) (The Guardian, data UNFPA 2005)
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A world of ci=es (2)
(propor=on of forecast new urban dwellers 2002-‐2015. Source: Worldmapper)
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Urban agglomera=ons in 1975
Urban Agglomerations in 1975 (proportion urban of the world: 37.2%)
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Urban agglomera=ons in 2009
Urban Agglomerations in 2009 (proportion urban of the world: 37.2%)
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Urban agglomera=ons in 2025
Projected Urban Agglomerations in 2025 (proportion urban of the world: 37.2%)
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Ci=es across Asia are growing fast
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MDGs and urban growth
• 227m people in the world moved out of slum condi=ons 2000-‐2010, i.e. MDG target surpassed x 2.2 • Good news? But from 776.7m in 2000 to some 827.6m in 2010, an increase in 55m. • And W Asia broke the favorable Asia-‐ wide trend, adding 12m, mainly Iraq 27/9/10
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Urban expansion
Urban growth living areas accommodated through: – Infill (vs leapfrogging) – Redevelopment (vs derelic=on, abandonment) – Changes of use (to and from living areas) – Changes in occupancy / household size (up and down) – Peripheral and peri-‐urban development
Effect is massive urban expansion, managed, partly managed and uncontrolled 27/9/10
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Dimensions of urban expansion
Net effect of peripheral and peri-‐urban development: urban built-‐up areas exploding – From 400,000 km2 in 2000 to 1m km2 by 2030, 1.1% of total land area of countries (not 3% per GRUMP Global Rural Urban Mapping Project – see Angel et al)
Developing country ci=es carry the main task – From 200,000 km2 in 2000 to 600,000 km2 by 2030 – This assumes con=nued lowering of densi=es @ 1.7% p.a. from 8000 persons/ km2 – Each new resident converts on average 500 m2 rural to urban land 27/9/10
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Roots of urban expansion
• Natural increase • Rural-‐urban migra=on, limits to rural development • Inter-‐urban migra=on • Intra-‐urban reloca=on • Displacement, temporary migra=on • Economic and social opportunity • Lower densi=es, higher land consump=on • Removal of land from urban uses 27/9/10
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Urbanisa=on and systems of ci=es
• Overall degree of urbanisa=on • Na=onal, regional and global networks, global ci=es • Adap=ve se6lements and hierarchies • Relevance of urbanisa=on and na=onal se6lements planning and policy to urban growth management
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Na=onal urban policy
• Popula=on policies e.g. family size, family support, migra=on including migrant loca=on • Residence and workplace registra=on systems • Regional development policy: favouring ci=es especially growth poles or clusters • City efficiency or city size as a ma6er of na=onal economic policy • Na=onal land use or land conserva=on policy • Na=onal urban policies, na=onal se6lement strategies e.g. trying to affect rural to urban, or pa6erns among ci=es, or favour / discourage development in par=cular regions 27/9/10
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Na=onal urban policies in pursuit of urban growth management
• Policies seek to lead, finance, support, and some=mes override urban growth management policies. They are supported by wide varia=on in policy instruments and responses. • Na=onal and supra-‐na=onal policies (e.g. Europe) seeking to achieve balanced regional development or compe==ve ci=es and thus manageable urban growth • Na=onal policies seeking to limit unplanned rural-‐urban conversion including irregular prac=ces associated with the de-‐collec=visa=on of agriculture (e.g. Vietnam) • Renewed high-‐level efforts to manage urban growth for mi=ga=on of and adapta=on to damaging climate change (e.g. Netherlands) • Na=onal policies for financial support for city development and infrastructure being condi=onal on sa=sfactory metropolitan planning strategies (e.g. India)
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City networks of compe==on
• Interna'onal compe''on for jobs, investment and wealth crea=on. Many countries seek to decentralise power, including over economic development, in urban jurisdic=ons. Investment, trade, migra=on, short-‐term labour movements, tourism, major events, aid and food security, student mobility, all are dimensions of inter-‐urban compe==on. • City regions compete among themselves globally now in ways that na=on-‐states have done in the past, and na=onal governments understand the importance of good urban growth management to economic efficiency, equity and na=onal compe=veness. Countries with an ac=ve na=onal urban policy that address compe==veness include Egypt, Finland, France, Ghana, Ireland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom: see World Bank (2009) for an overview. 27/9/10
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City networks of coopera=on
• Interna'onal coopera'on: New pa6erns of coopera=on among ci=es, through associa=ons such as Metropolis and the sharing of best prac=ce through the UN-‐HABITAT Dubai compe==on. Inter-‐city coopera=on also occurs through the global diasporas of ethnic and na=onal groups and their remi6ances, the sought-‐amer return of expatriate experts to their home ci=es, and the growing web of transna=onal company networks and supply chains increasingly managed from ci=es in emerging economies. • However, globalisa=on can just as readily sap the economic vitality of an urban region as contribute to it (e.g. loss of talent through brain drain), and the task before ci=es is to =e economic development forces appropriate to their urban growth trajectory and needs. 27/9/10
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‘Implicit’ na=onal urban policy
Na=onal policies and programs may hint at urban development purposes, but are not linked or coordinated with them: • Macroeconomic policy e.g. fiscal s=muli • Housing and land development policy • Tax, especially treatment of mortgage debt, infrastructure deprecia=on etc • Intergovernmental financial and coordina=on arrangements • Industry policy and technology policy • Transport policy, including airport loca=on • Defense including procurement and force deployment • Major na=onal development projects • Legal precedents or code 27/9/10
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Na=onal urban policy effec=veness
Na=onal urban policy: • Not seriously recognised in most na=onal governments • Typically weak when it is recognised • Using changes to se6lement system for social aims extremely long-‐term and ambi=ous • Ci=es alone are weak in na=onal influence unless (a) primate or capital (b) confedera=on or umbrella group (c) local government cons=tu=onally recognised • Mediated by provincial governments in most federa=ons • Party-‐poli=cal differences Yet: It is s=ll possible to make a difference, and na=onal policy sepngs to support urban growth management can be powerful 27/9/10
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Ques=on for discussion
• Think of the three things you would like your na=onal government to do to support your city’s urban growth management
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Forms of urban expansion
Urban expansion takes place in many different forms. Densi=es Redevelopment, infill, peripheral, satellite. Avoidance or encroachment of hazards of many kinds Add or subtract from recrea=on and open space With less or more share of housing With or without its share of employment 27/9/10
Adequately funded with public or private funding. In various metropolitan forms. With or without public and private transport provided for. With or without adequate infrastructure and services. With land development legal, semi-‐legal or illegal
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Which city? 1
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Accra, Ghana
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Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
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Ahvaz, Iran
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Akashi, Japan
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Alexandria, Egypt
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Algiers, Algeria
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Aswan, Egypt
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Baku, Azerbaijan
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Cairo, Egypt
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Casablanca, Morocco
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Gorgan, Iran
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Guangzhou, China
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Hyderabad, India
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Jaipur, India
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Kolkota, India
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Bacolod, Philippines
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Discussion
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