User-defined Prediction The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
National and Regional Prediction: CON short 69 of majority Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Pred Seats CON 33.23%
208
33.00%
63
14
257
LAB 36.20%
346
28.00%
0
93
253
LIB
67
30.00%
41
0
108
NAT 2.22%
22.65%
8
2.22%
3
0
11
MIN 0.86%
3
0.86%
0
0
3
The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).
Area
Con %
Lab %
Lib %
Nat %
Weight %
Con SD%
Lab SD%
Lib SD%
Nat SD%
Scotland
14.0
36.0
25.0
21.0
8.8
-2.4
5.4
-5.6
3.3
The North
20.0
39.0
35.0
5.1
-3.4
-1.6
3.7
North West
29.0
35.0
30.0
8.5
2.5
-3.2
0.6
Yorks/Humber 28.0
32.0
32.0
Wales
26.0
33.0
26.0
West Midlands 38.0
28.0
East Midlands
29.0
36.0
9.5
-3.9
-0.8
3.8
5.3
4.1
-0.8
-0.4
27.0
10.0
2.6
-2.2
0.1
29.0
6.2
0.8
-2.8
1.8
8.0
Anglia
43.0
20.0
30.0
12.5
-1.3
-1.2
0.9
South West
37.0
16.0
42.0
10.8
-2.4
2.1
1.8
London
36.0
31.0
28.0
11.0
3.5
1.0
-1.9
South East
46.0
17.0
31.0
12.4
0.4
1.6
-2.5
Average
33.8
27.2
30.6
100.0
-0.0
0.0
-0.0
-4.6
List of predicted seat changes Seat
County/Area
Aberconwy
Clwyd
Aberdeen South
Grampian
Arfon
Gwynedd
Basildon South and East Thurrock
Essex
Battersea
Wandsworth
Predicted Change gain CON LAB from gain LIB LAB from gain NAT LAB from gain CON LAB from gain CON LAB from
MP as at 2005 : Betty Williams : Anne Begg : Unknown (changed seat) : Angela Smith : Martin Linton
Bedford
Bedfordshire
CON
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham
CON
Birmingham Hall Green
Birmingham
LIB
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Lancashire
CON
Blaydon
Newcastle area
LIB
Bolton North East
Western Manchester
CON
Bolton West
Western Manchester
CON
Bournemouth West
Dorset
LIB
Bradford East
West Yorkshire
LIB
Bradford West
West Yorkshire
LIB
Brentford and Isleworth
Hounslow
CON
Brighton Kemptown
East Sussex
CON
Bristol North West
Bristol area
LIB
Broadland
Norfolk
LIB
Broxtowe
Nottinghamshire
CON
Burnley
Lancashire
LIB
Burton
Staffordshire
CON
Bury North
Western Manchester
CON
Calder Valley
West Yorkshire
CON
Cardiff North
South Glamorgan
CON
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
Dyfed
CON
Chelmsford
Essex
LIB
Chester, City of
Cheshire
CON
Colne Valley
West Yorkshire
LIB
Corby
Northamptonshire
CON
Crawley
West Sussex
CON
Croydon Central
Croydon
CON
gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain
LAB : Patrick Hall LAB : Gisela Stuart LAB : Roger Godsiff LAB : Joan Humble LAB : David Anderson LAB : David Crausby LAB : Ruth Kelly CON : Sir John Butterfill LAB : Terry Rooney LAB : Marsha Singh LAB : Ann Keen LAB : Desmond Turner LAB : Doug Naysmith CON
: Unknown (new seat)
LAB : Nick Palmer LAB : Kitty Ussher LAB : Janet Dean LAB : David Chaytor LAB
: Christine McCafferty
LAB : Julie Morgan LAB : Nick Ainger CON : Simon Burns LAB : Christine Russell LAB : Kali Mountford LAB : Phil Hope LAB : Laura Moffatt LAB : Unknown (changed
Dartford
Kent
CON
Derby North
Derbyshire
LIB
Derbyshire South
Derbyshire
CON
Dorset North
Dorset
LIB
Dorset South
Dorset
CON
Dorset West
Dorset
LIB
Dudley North
West Midlands
CON
Dudley South
West Midlands
CON
Durham, City of
Durham
LIB
Ealing Central and Acton
Ealing
LIB
Eastbourne
East Sussex
LIB
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh area
LIB
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh area
LIB
Eltham
Greenwich
CON
Filton and Bradley Stoke
Bristol area
LIB
Gedling
Nottinghamshire
CON
Great Yarmouth
Norfolk
CON
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
West Midlands
CON
Haltemprice and Howden
Humberside
LIB
Harborough
Leicestershire
LIB
Harlow
Essex
CON
Harrow East
Harrow
CON
Hartlepool
Cleveland
LIB
Hastings and Rye
East Sussex
CON
Hendon
Barnet
CON
High Peak
Derbyshire
CON
from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from
seat) LAB : Howard Stoate LAB : Bob Laxton LAB : Mark Todd CON : Robert Walter LAB : Jim Knight CON : Oliver Letwin LAB : Ian Austin LAB : Ian Pearson LAB
: Roberta BlackmanWoods
LAB : Andrew Slaughter CON : Nigel Waterson LAB : Mark Lazarowicz LAB : Nigel Griffiths LAB : Clive Efford CON
: Unknown (new seat)
LAB : Vernon Coaker LAB : Tony Wright LAB : Sylvia Heal CON : David Davis CON : Edward Garnier LAB : Bill Rammell LAB : Tony McNulty LAB : Iain Wright LAB : Michael Foster LAB : Andrew Dismore LAB : Tom Levitt
Hove
East Sussex
CON
Hyndburn
Lancashire
CON
Islington South and Finsbury
Islington
LIB
Lancashire West
Lancashire
CON
Leicester South
Leicestershire
LIB
Leicestershire North West
Leicestershire
CON
Liverpool Wavertree
Merseyside
LIB
Loughborough
Leicestershire
CON
Manchester Gorton
Central Manchester
LIB
Meon Valley
Hampshire
LIB
Milton Keynes North
Buckinghamshire
CON
Milton Keynes South
Buckinghamshire
CON
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Lancashire
CON
Newcastle upon Tyne East
Newcastle area
LIB
Newcastle upon Tyne North
Newcastle area
LIB
Northampton North
Northamptonshire
LIB
Northampton South
Northamptonshire
CON
Norwich South
Norfolk
LIB
Ochil and South Perthshire
Tayside
NAT
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Eastern Manchester
LIB
Oxford East
Oxfordshire
LIB
Pendle
Lancashire
CON
Poplar and Limehouse
Tower Hamlets
CON
Portsmouth North
Hampshire
CON
Redditch
Hereford and Worcestershire
CON
Ribble South
Lancashire
CON
Rossendale and Darwen
Lancashire
CON
gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain
LAB : Celia Barlow LAB : Greg Pope LAB : Emily Thornberry LAB : Rosie Cooper LAB : Peter Soulsby LAB : David Taylor LAB : Jane Kennedy LAB : Andy Reed : Sir Gerald Kaufman : Unknown (new CON seat) : Unknown (changed LAB seat) LAB
LAB : Phyllis Starkey LAB : Geraldine Smith LAB : Nick Brown LAB : Doug Henderson LAB : Sally Keeble LAB
: Unknown (changed seat)
LAB : Charles Clarke LAB : Gordon Banks LAB : Phil Woolas LAB : Andrew Smith LAB : Gordon Prentice LAB : Jim Fitzpatrick LAB
: Sarah McCarthyFry
LAB : Jacqui Smith LAB : David Borrow LAB : Janet Anderson
Sefton Central
Merseyside
CON
Sheffield Central
South Yorkshire
LIB
Somerset North
Bristol area
LIB
Somerset North East
Bristol area
CON
Stafford
Staffordshire
CON
Stourbridge
West Midlands
CON
Stroud
Gloucestershire
CON
Swansea West
West Glamorgan
LIB
Swindon South
Wiltshire
CON
Tamworth
Staffordshire
CON
Totnes
Devon
LIB
Vale of Glamorgan
South Glamorgan
CON
Warrington South
Cheshire
CON
Watford
Hertfordshire
LIB
Weaver Vale
Cheshire
CON
Wells
Somerset
LIB
Westminster North
City of Westminster
CON
Weston-Super-Mare
Bristol area
LIB
Wirral South
Merseyside
CON
Wolverhampton South West
West Midlands
CON
Worcester
Hereford and Worcestershire
CON
Ynys Mon
Gwynedd
NAT
from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from gain from
LAB
: Claire CurtisThomas
LAB : Richard Caborn CON : Liam Fox LAB : Dan Norris LAB : David Kidney LAB : Lynda Waltho LAB : David Drew LAB : Alan Williams LAB : Anna Snelgrove LAB : Brian Jenkins CON : Anthony Steen LAB : John Smith LAB : Helen Southworth LAB : Claire Ward LAB : Mike Hall CON
: David HeathcoatAmory
LAB : Karen Buck CON : John Penrose LAB : Ben Chapman LAB : Robert Marris LAB : Michael Foster LAB : Albert Owen