TIF Feb 2016

PHD Research Bureau February 2016 1 February 2016 PHD Research Bureau February 2016 2 PHD Research Bureau Exec...

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PHD Research Bureau

February 2016

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February 2016

PHD Research Bureau

February 2016

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PHD Research Bureau

Executive Summary (TIF February 2016) India’s exports have been passing through the tough tim es due to various dom estic as w ell as externalchallenges in term s of price uncom petitiveness,rejection of export consignm ents,slow recovery in advanced nations and restrictions im posed by few coutries on im ports ofcom m odities viz.m eat,pharm aceuticals ,vegetables etc.W hile,there are few developm ents w hich have occurred in favour ofboosting India’s exports,going ahead. India’s exports for the m onth ofJanuary 2016 stands at USD 21.1 billion as com pared to USD 24.4 billion in January 2015 registering a grow th ofaround (-) 14% .During January 2016,the im ports are registered at USD 28.7 billion as com pared to USD 32.3 billion in January 2015,registering a grow th of(-)11% .The balance oftrade stands ataround USD (-)7.6 billion during January 2016 as com pared to USD(-)7.8 billion for January 2015. Com m odity-w ise,oil m eals exports fell by (-) 15% ,iron ore exports registered a fall of (-) 69% petroleum products exports decline by (-) 51% and cashew exports recorded a fall of (-) 15% during April-January,2015-16. In area ofinvestm ents the netFIIinvestm ents in the m onth ofJanuary 2016 stands atabout(-)USD 8814 m illion as com pared to about (-) USD 1243 m illion in Decem ber 2015. Based on the recom m endations ofForeign Investm entProm otion Board (FIPB)the governm enthas approved 10 FDIproposals involving an am ountofRs 607 crore. At international front,during the visit of President of France,M r.François Hollande,India and France signed 14 agreem ents /M em orandum of Understanding (M OUs) including cooperation in the fields of defence, cooperation in aerospace, cooperation in the field of solar alliance, joint venture in railw ays and cooperation in developm entofsm artcities have been concluded. The Union Cabinet chaired by our Hon’ble Prim e M inister Shri Narendra M odihas approved the Proposalfor Notification ofCom m itm ents under the Trade Facilitation Agreem ent (TFA) ofW orld Trade Organization (W TO),ratification and acceptance ofthe Instrum entofAcceptance ofProtocol of TFA to the W TO Secretariat and constitution of the National Com m ittee on Trade Facilitation (NCTF). Pertaining to policy developm ents,Directorate GeneralofForeign Trade (DGFT) notified that only tw o docum ents from the date of notification i.e 29th January,2016 are required to be uploaded /subm itted along w ith the digitalphotograph w hile applying for IEC. Jw aharlalNehru Port Trust (JNPT),the largest container term inalin India,started a new system Christened Direct Port Delivery (DPD),for cargo clearance that w illm ake it easier and faster for im porters to im portgoods through this port. M inister of Com m erce for State for Com m erce and Industry recently held an interactive m eeting w ith Export Prom otion Councils (EPCs) to deliberate on export related issues and the com m erce m inistry has prepared a strategy to boost shipm ents to Africa and has identified engineering as a m ajor sector for exportto severalnations ofthatcontinent. February 2016

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Contents S. No.

Topic

Page No.

1

Developm ents in India’s Foreign Trade

5

2

Developm ents in India’s Foreign Investm ents

7

3

Developm ents in BilateralTrade and Investm ents

7

4.

India and W TO

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5.

Policy Developm ents

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6.

M iscellaneous

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1.

Developments in India’s foreign trade

1.1

Exports

1.1.1 Merchandise exports decline by (-) 14% in January 2016 - India’s exports for the m onth of January 2016 stands at USD 21.1 billion as com pared to USD 24.4 billion in January 2015 registering a grow th of around (-) 14% .During January 2016,the im ports are registered at USD 28.7 billion as com pared to USD 32.3 billion in January 2015,registering a grow th of(-)11% .The balance oftrade stands ataround USD (-)7.6 billion during January 2016 as com pared to USD(-)7.8 billion for January 2015. Value of Foreign Trade Period

USD Billion January

November

December

20

22.3

21.1

(-)24.4

(-)14.7

(-) 13.6

30

34

28.7

(-)30.3

(-)3.8

(-)11

(-) 9.8

(-) 11.7

(-) 7.6

Exports FY16 Growth (%) Imports FY16 Growth (%) Trade balance FY16

Source : PHD Research Bureau, compiled from Ministry of Commerce and Industry

1.1.2 December, 2015 Services Exports stands at USD 12 billion - India’s services exports for the m onth ofDecem ber 2015 stand ataround USD 14 billion and services im ports stand atUSD 7.2 billion in Decem ber 2015.The trade balance in services stands at USD 6.8 billion for the m onth of Decem ber 2015. 1.1.3 Oil meals exports fell (-) 15% during April-Jan 2016 - According to Solvent Extractors Association ofIndia (SEA),exports ofoilm eals during April-January 2016 registered a decline of (-)51% to US$483 m illion during April-January 2016 from US$1.1 billion registered during the corresponding period of the last year. This is due to disparity and continuous high prices of oil m eals in the dom estic m arket w hich m akes Indian oilm eals non-com petitive in the international m arket. Currently FOB/FAS Indian soybean m eal,one ofthe m ajor categories ofoilm eals is quoted atUS$ 492 per ton againstArgentina origin soybean m ealCIF Rotterdam atUS$ 335 per ton. This is forcing the key Asian im porters viz.South Korea to sw itch to South Am erican countries viz. Argentina and Brazil.South Korea shipped in (-) 15% less im ports ofoilm eals from India during April2015 -January 2016.Furtherm ore,ban on the im ports of groundnut by Vietnam from April 2015,because ofpest found in our consignm ents rem ained also one ofthe m ajor reasons ofsharp fallin groundnutexportfrom India this year.

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1.1.4 Iron Ore exports fell (-) 69% - Iron ore exports have registered a significant fall by around (-) 69% to US$137 m illion during April-Jan 2016 from US$441 m illion registered during the corresponding period ofthe last year.High leveloftaxation,sluggish dem and in globalm arket especially in China and declining com m odity prices have hit hard the iron ore industry in the country.There is a 30% export duty on iron ore fines w ith the iron content of58% and above and 10% for below this content,for iron ore lum ps the duty is flat30% .Due to w eakening steeldem and in China,prices of iron ore on an average have declined by 40% and in a case of low er grades (below 58% )thus reducing the m argins for producers and forcing them to cutoutputand exports. 1.1.5 Petroleum products exports decline by (-) 51% - Exports of petroleum products registered a decline of around (-) 51% to US$25 billion during April-January 2016 from US$51.5 billion registered during the corresponding tim e of the previous fiscal year. This is m ajorly attributed to fallin crude oilprices in the internationalm arket.The petroleum products com prise of the highest share of 12% in India’s total exports,therefore,fall in global crude oil prices has pulled India’s overallexports realization dow n in recenttim es. 1.1.6 Cashew exports fell by (-) 15% - Cashew exports registered a 15% fallto US$6.5 billion in April-January 2016 from US$7.6 billion registered in April-January 2015.This is m ajorly on account of high processing cost because of substantial w age hike by the State Governm ent and rise in internationalprices of raw nuts.Furtherm ore,w ithdraw alof 5% export incentive under Vishesh KrishiGram UpajYojna schem e has also dragged cashew exports dow n from the country. 1.1.7 Auto car exports decline by (-) 19% - Auto car exports have registered a fallofaround (-) 19% to 33909 units in January,2016 from 41,787 units registered in the sam e m onth of the previous year. In the April-January period of this fiscal year, car exports have declined by (-) 5.22% to 4,39,208 units as against4,63,391 units in the corresponding period lastfiscal.This is m ajorly due to various challenges faced by Indian auto industry in few m arkets viz.Algeria,Europe and neighbouring country SriLanka.Algeria has brought a new law w hich requires cars im ported into the country to com ply w ith the ‘billofspecifications’pertaining to safety standards.In Srilanka Indian exporters are facing high taxation issue and Europe,the biggestm arketfor com pactcars for India is recovering from a slum p. 1.1.8 India’s tea exports rose by 9% - According to the Tea Board,India’s tea exports rose by 9% to Rs.3,218.07 crore in the April-Decem ber period ofthe currentfiscalfrom Rs.2,955.78 crore in the year-ago period.The increase in tea exports w as seen in m ajor tea-im porting countries such as the CIS countries,the U.K.,Germ any,Poland,the UAE,Bangladesh and SriLanka. 1.1.9 Beef ban hits Tamil Nadu's leather units, exports fell (-) 10% - This is due to falling dem and in key exportm arkets like EU and low er availability ofhide and skin due to the beefban in M aharashtra has hit the leather industry hard w ith exports falling by m ore than 10% in the first eight m onths of2015-16.A significant part ofthe im pact has been felt by tanneries across Tam il Nadu,the country's largestleather-exporting state.

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1.2

Imports

1.2.1 India’s steel imports fell (-) 8.7% in January, 2016 - India’s steelim ports fellby 8.7% during January 2016 w hile the sector recorded a rise of24.1% during April-January 2015-16.The developm ent com es in the w ake of the governm ent taking a num ber of steps to check inbound shipm ents from countries like China.Since June,2015,the steelsector has been provided a range of protection including hike in im port and safeguard duties to check cheap im ports.In June,India im posed anti-dum ping duty ofup to US$316 per tonne on im ports ofcertain steelproducts from few countries,including China to protectdom estic producers from below -cost inbound shipm ents. In August,2015 the governm enthad hiked im portduty on base m etals,including iron and steel,by 2.5% ,in a m ove aim ed at helping dom estic players to com pete w ith cheap Chinese im ports after yen valuation.In Septem ber,a provisionalsafeguard duty of20% w as im posed on im port ofhotrolled flatproducts ofnon-alloy and other alloy steel. 1.2.2 Urea imports up by 11% to 81.25 lakh tones -Urea im ports increased by 11% to 81.25 lakh tonnes (LT) in the first ten m onths ofthis fiscal.India had im ported 73.02 LT ofurea in the corresponding period a year ago.The rise in im ports w as due to low er prices ofthe fertiliser in the internationalm arket.

2.

Developments in India’s Foreign Investments

2.1 Net FII investments stands at about (-) USD 8814 million in Jan 2016 - The net FII investm ents in the m onth of January 2016 stands at about (-) USD 8814 m illion as com pared to about(-) USD 1243 m illion in Decem ber 2015.The netFIIinvestm ents registered a y-o-y grow th of about (-) 262% in January 2016 over investm ents ofabout USD 5453 m illion in January 2015.The netFIIinvestm ents registered a grow th ofabout(-)163% in Decem ber 2015 (Y-O-Y). 2.2 FIPB clears 10 FDI proposals worth Rs 607 crore - Based on the recom m endations of Foreign Investm ent Prom otion Board in its 231st m eeting held on January 22, 2016 the governm ent has approved 10 proposals involving FDI of Rs 607 crore, and recom m ended one proposal for approval of CCEA (cabinet Com m ittee on Econom ic Affairs) involving FDI of Rs 5856.51 crore.

3.

Bilateral Trade and Investment Developments

3.1 India - France signed 14 agreements/ Memorandum of Understanding (MOUs) during the visit of President of France - Recently,during the visit of President of France,M r. François Hollande,14 agreem ents /M em orandum ofUnderstanding (M OUs) including cooperation in the fields of defence,cooperation in aerospace,cooperation in the field of solar alliance,joint venture in railw ays and cooperation in developm entofsm artcities have been concluded.This is to m ention a few agreem ents,France is to investUS$10 billion in India in next5 years,Signed M oU on India purchasing 36 Rafale fighter jets,France to invest Euro 300 m illion to support International Solar Alliance, French EDF EN & India’s SITAC to invest Euro 155 m illion in clim ate change technology by end-2016,France to help construction of6 nuclear reactors atJaitapur to fix tim eline am ong others. February 2016

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3.2 India sign protocol amending Double Taxation Avoidance Convention with Armenia A protocol to am end the existing Double Taxation Avoidance Convention w as signed by the Governm ent ofIndia and the Governm ent ofArm enia. The Protocolam ends the Double Taxation Avoidance Convention betw een India and Arm enia thathas been in existence since 9th Septem ber, 2004.The Protocolam ends the Article on Exchange ofInform ation for tax purposes to bring it in line w ith the updated provisions in the OECD M odel. The Protocol w ill enable the tw o countries to exchange inform ation related to financialand banking transactions under the Double Taxation Avoidance Convention,and thereby facilitate them in addressing tax evasion.It is also expected to further strengthen the efforts ofGovernm entofIndia in curbing generation ofblack m oney. 3.3 India and Nepal sign signed 9 agreements -Recently,during the visitofPrim e M inister of Nepal Shri K.P. Sharm a Oli, 14 agreem ents /M em orandum of Understanding (M OUs) signed betw een India and Nepal.This includes M oU on utilization ofUS$ 250 m illion Grant com ponent of GOI’s Assistance package for Post-earthquake reconstruction assistance,M oU on strengthening of road infrastructure in the Teraiarea ofNepal,M oU betw een NepalAcadem y ofM usic and Dram a and Sangeet Natak Academ y, Establishm ent of Em inent Persons Group and so on. These developm ents are expected to lead a further strengthening of age-old,close and friendly relations betw een the tw o countries.

4.

India and WTO

The Union Cabinet approves Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) - The Union Cabinet chaired by our Hon’ble Prim e M inister Shri Narendra M odi has approved the Proposal for Notification of Com m itm ents under the Trade Facilitation Agreem ent (TFA) of W orld Trade Organization (W TO),ratification and acceptance ofthe Instrum entofAcceptance ofProtocolofTFA to the W TO Secretariat and constitution of the National Com m ittee on Trade Facilitation (NCTF).The Trade Facilitation Agreem ent contains provisions for expediting the m ovem ent, release and clearance of goods,including goods in transit.It also sets out m easures for effective cooperation betw een custom s and other appropriate authorities on trade facilitation and custom s com pliance issues. These objectives are in consonance w ith India’s “Ease of Doing Business” initiative.The Trade Facilitation Agreem ent shall enter into force for the notified m em bers upon acceptance by tw o-third W TO M em bers.To facilitate both dom estic coordination and im plem entation of the provisions of the Agreem ent,a National Com m ittee on Trade Facilitation w ould be setup

5.

Policy Developments

5.1 Sesame seeds export to EU allowed with conditions - The Directorate GeneralofForeign Trade (DGFT) w ith reference to its Notification No 37/2015-20,dated 3rd February,2016 has put certain conditions pertaining to exporting sesam e seeds to EU m arket. Exporters are required to take exportcertificate for outbound shipm ents ofsesam e seeds to the European Union.For this an Indian Oilseeds & Produce Export Prom otion Council (IOPEPC) is designated as com petent authority to issue export certification. The IOPEPC shall issue export certification w ithin tw o w orking days of receiving the request from an exporter.The m ove assum es significance as large num bers ofalerts w ere received from the EU countries aboutthe presence ofsalm onella bacteria in the consignm ents.

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5.2 Commerce Ministry reduces number of documents for import-export code - This is w ith reference to Notification No.34 /2015-2020,dated 29 January,2016 issued by Directorate GeneralofForeign Trade (DGFT) from the date ofnotification only tw o docum ents are required to be uploaded /subm itted along w ith the digital photograph w hile applying for IEC. Further, applications for IEC/ m odification in IEC can be m ade only in online m ode by applicants through digitalsignatures w ith effectfrom 1.4.2016. 5.2 JNPT eases cargo delivery to boost 'Make in India' -Jw aharlalNehru Port Trust (JNPT), the largest container term inalin India,started a new system ofcargo clearance that w illm ake it easier and faster for im porters to im port goods through this port.Christened Direct Port Delivery (DPD),the system allow s governm ent-accredited reputed im porters and im porting agencies to take delivery ofgoods from the port soon after the arrivalof ships,provided they com ply w ith allthe necessary paperw ork in advance.In the regular course,im porters com plete their paperw ork and pay their dues after a ship arrives atthe port. 5.3 RBI extends currency swap arrangement with SAARC nations - In order to enhance econom ic cooperation and strengthen financialstability,RBIhas extended the $2 billion currency sw ap arrangem ent to SAARC nations till m id-Novem ber 2017.Under the arrangem ent,RBI is to offer sw ap arrangem ent up to an overallam ount of$2 billion both in foreign currency and Indian rupee.The SAARC Sw ap Arrangem ent w as offered by the RBIto SAARC nations on Novem ber 15, 2012. The facility w ill be available to all SAARC m em ber countries - Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,M aldives,Nepal,Pakistan and SriLanka. 5.4 Import of duty-free capital goods for power sector banned - This is w ith reference to Notification No.35 /2015-2020,dated 29th January issued by Directorate GeneralofForeign Trade (DGFT)im portofCapitalGoods is notperm itted under EPCG Schem e for generation/transm ission ofpow er.Am ended Para 5.01 (g) ofFTP2015-20 shallread as ,authorization under EPCG Schem e shall not be issued for im port of any Capital Goods for generation/transm ission of pow er (including Captive plants and Pow er Generator Sets ofany kind) for Supply ofpow er (energy) in their ow n unit. 5.5 The Government extended e-Tourist Visa scheme to 37 more countries - The Governm enthas extended an e-TouristVisa (e-TV) facility to 37 m ore countries.The totalcountof countries under the schem e w ill becom e 150.The new 37 countries included in e-Tourist Visa schem e are Albania, Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Botsw ana, Brunei, Bulgaria, Cape Verde, Com oros,Cote d'lvoire,Croatia,Czech Republic,Denm ark,Eritrea,Gabon,Gam bia,Ghana,Greece, Guinea,Iceland,Lesotho,Liberia,M adagascar,M alaw i,M oldova,Nam ibia,Rom ania,San M arino, Senegal, Serbia, Slovakia, South Africa, Sw aziland, Sw itzerland, Tajikistan, Trinidad & Tobago, Zam bia and Zim babw e. 5.6 Vietnam lifts ban on import of Indian groundnut-The Vietnam M inistry ofAgriculture & RuralDevelopm ent (M ARD) have form ally com m unicated the decision to the Indian Governm ent stating that Plant Protection Departm ent of Vietnam (PPD) w ill issue im port perm its for groundnuts for January 18th 2016.The lifting of ban has com e in the w ake of visit of Vietnam delegation to India in Decem ber 2015.The delegation w as satisfied after seeing fum igation facilities, export procedures and export certification system for export ofgroundnuts export from India,as per the Standard Operating Procedure developed by Directorate of plant Protection,Quarantine and Storage,Faridabad.Vietnam had tem porarily suspended im portofgroundnuts from India w .e.f, 6th April,2015 due to interceptions ofquarantine pests living Caryedon serratus and Trogodrm a granarium intercepted in consignm ents ofgroundnuts exported since January,2015. February 2016

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6.

Miscellaneous

6.1 Commerce Minister held consultations with Export Promotion Councils (EPCs) – M inister of Com m erce for State for Com m erce and Industry recently held an interactive m eeting w ith Export Prom otion Councils (EPCs) to deliberate on export related issues. Som e of the observations raised by EPCs include request for increased duty draw backs, inclusion of m ore scrips in the M EIS schem e, request for abolishing service tax on exports, delays in getting Environm entalissues and m ore m easures aim ed at ensuring Ease ofdoing Business.The M inister assured the exporters that all the issues raised during the m eeting w ould be addressed after undertaking a com prehensive consultation process w ith the respective stakeholders. 6.2 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to a record low level – Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fellto a record low level at 300 points from around 1200 points in August 2015.This is on account of China’s econom ic slow dow n w hich led to the devaluation of its currency and grim trade clim ate across w orld.This has finally reduced the dem and for shipping capacity drastically. BDI is an econom ic indicator w hich is issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange to assess the price ofm oving cargo such as coal,grain and iron ore.The index has raised the concerns for the shipping vessel com panies w hich are facing a big challenge ow ing to decline in the globaltrade activities. 6.3 Commerce Ministry prepares strategy to boost exports to Africa - The com m erce m inistry has prepared a strategy to boost shipm ents to Africa and has identified engineering as a m ajor sector for exportto severalnations ofthatcontinent.The Departm entofCom m erce w illnow hold consultations w ith Am bassadors and High Com m issioners of m ajor African nations and industry stakeholders to im plem entthatstrategy. 6.4 EU stringent trademark laws fears India - The EU recently m ade its tradem ark law m ore stringent by introducing enforcem ent m easures on goods in transit w ithin its territories. This m eans that not only w ill goods w ith logos sim ilar to the ones registered in the EU countries be disallow ed from being sold in the bloc,but such item s could also be seized by custom s officials at EU ports and airports even ifthey are m eant for a third country.A team from Indian Governm ent recently m etEU officials in Brussels seeking changes to the tradem ark law so thatitdoesn’tlead to unnecessary hassles for Indian pharm aceuticalexporters. 6.5 12 nations sign Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal - The Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of the w orld's biggest m ultinationaltrade deals,w as signed by 12 m em ber nations ,but the m assive trade pactw illstillrequire years oftough negotiations .The TPP w illnow undergo a tw oyear ratification period in w hich atleastsix countries -thataccountfor 85 per centofthe com bined gross dom estic production ofthe 12 TPP nations - m ust approve the finaltext for the dealto be im plem ented.The 12 nations include Australia,Brunei,Canada,Chile,Japan,M alaysia,M exico,New Zealand,Peru,Singapore,the United States and Vietnam 6.6 Foreign Tourist Arrivals on E-Tourist Visa grow at 252.2% (y-o-y)– M inistry of Tourism reports thata totalof88,162 tourists arrived in January 2016 on e-TouristVisa as com pared to 25,023 during the m onth ofJanuary,2015 registering a grow th of252.3% .During the m onth ofJanuary,2016 a totalof 88,162 tourist arrived on e-Tourist Visa as com pared to 25,023 during the m onth of January, 2015 registering a grow th of 252.3% .This high grow th m ay be attributed to introduction of e-Tourist Visa for 113 countries as againstthe earlier coverage of43 countries. February 2016

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Study/Project Team Dr. S P Sharma ChiefEconom ist& Director ofResearch Ms. Rashmi Taneja Senior Research Officer

Disclaimer “Trade and Investment Facilitator” is prepared by PHD Cham ber of Com m erce and Industry to provide a broad view ofIndia’s foreign trade and investm ents developm ents. This new sletter m ay not be reproduced, w holly or partly in any m aterial form , or m odified,w ithoutprior approvalfrom the Cham ber. It m ay be noted that this new sletter is for guidance and inform ation purposes only. Though due care has been taken to ensure accuracy ofinform ation to the bestofthe PH D Cham ber’s know ledge and belief,it is strongly recom m ended that readers should seek specific professionaladvice before taking any decisions. Please note that the PHD Cham ber of Com m erce and Industry does not take any responsibility for outcom e ofdecisions taken as a resultofrelying on the contentofthis new sletter.PHD Cham ber of Com m erce and Industry shallin no w ay,be liable for any direct or indirect dam ages that m ay arise due to any act or om ission on the part ofthe Reader or User due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this publication.

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Team, PHD Research Bureau Dr. S P Sharma Chief Economist & Director of Research Email: [email protected] Economic Affairs and State Affairs (Macro Economy, Policy Development & Business environment)

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