IMPLEMENTING NTA FOR SENEGAL : OVERVIEW OF THE PROGRESS Latif Dramani Fahd NDIAYE Honolulu/HAWAI - USA 11-12 June 2010
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT • This NTA project for AFRICA has benefited of a IDRC grant administered by AERC • Africa NTA group • Global NTA project team
BRIEF INTRODUCTION OF SENEGAL • LOCATION: WEST OF AFRICA FACING THE US • SIZE: 197,000 km sq • POPULATION: 12,000,000 • CURRENCY: Franc CFA (1US$=500FCFA)
SOME FIGURES (ESPS-2005) • 55% of the population is less than 20 • The elderly (+65) are less than 4% • Support ratio is about ¼ • The global health situation has improved (access to health services, costs, etc.) since 1960
0
.01
Density
.02
.03
STRUCTURE OF POPULATION (SENEGAL -2005)
0
20
40
60 B3.Age
80
100
COMMENTS ON POPULATION STRUCTURE FOR SENEGAL • Population is very young (55% under 20) • A drop around 28 (cohort : 1980): progressive decrease of natality • Life expectation: still short but improving with medical progress and access to health infrastructure • Features of demographic transition?
WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR • i) Show the impact of age structure on growth for Senegal (dividend) • ii) Understand how the deficit is financed for Senegal
METHODOLOGY • 1) Construct the NTA profiles for Senegal • 2) Construct the LCD for Senegal (flow identity) • 3) Calculate the demographic dividends which show the impact of age structure on growth for Senegal • 4) Construct the second part of the flow identity that will allow understanding how the deficit is financed
I - NTA PROFILES
Private consumption for health and education (SENEGAL -2005)
25
15 10 5
per capita adjusted education
per capita adjusted health
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0 0
1000 FCFA
20
Consumption, Public and Private Per Capita, Senegal 2005 500000 CF PER CAPITA C PER CAPITA CG PER CAPITA
450000 400000 350000
CFA
300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000
AGE
90
87
84
81
78
75
72
69
66
63
60
57
54
51
48
45
42
39
36
33
30
27
24
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
0
PER CAPITA LABOUR INCOME AND CONSUMPTION SENEGAL 2005
700000
CF C 600000
YL
500000
CFA
400000
300000
200000
100000
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
0 AGE
COMMENTS ON THE PER CAPITA PROFILE • Private consumption are much more larger than public one • Individuals between 35 and 60 get surplus (data, weakness of wages in comparison of the cost of life) • Presence of child labor
II - LCD PROFILES
500000
PER CAPITA LCD SENEGAL 2005 400000 300000 200000
-100000 -200000 -300000 -400000 -500000
AGE
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
0
CFA
100000
-20
-10
AGE 88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Billions CFA 80
AGGREGATE LCD
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
COMMENTS ON THE LCD PROFILE • The impact of age structure is strong: the young consume much more than the elderly and the surplus is small! What are the effects on growth? • The agregate surplus is small and the agregate deficit is really big! How the deficit is financed? (private or public)
III – IMPACT OF AGE STRUCTURE
Economic Support Ratio, Senegal 1950-2050 0.75
0.70
Ratio
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000 Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.80
The First Dem ographic Dividend, Senegal, 1950-
0.60
Percent
0.40
0.20
0.00 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60 Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
COMMENTS ON SUPPORT RATIO • The support ratio (L/N) decrease from 1975 to 2000: N is growing faster (improvements of life conditions) • The growth of L/N indicates the gain on economic growth due to age structure: – The first dividend is enjoyed since 2000 – the pic is in 2025, almost 0.8% of economic growth will be due to age structure – In 2010, almost 0.5% is due to age (the prediction of growth for 2010 varies between 1.5% and 2.3%)
III – HOW THE DEFICIT IS FINANCED
TRANSFERS PROFILES PUBLIC TRANSFERS PRIVATE TRANSFERS: – INTER HOUSEHOLD TRANSFERS – INTRA HOUSEHOLD TRANSFERS
MACRO CONTROLS FOR PUBLIC TRANSFERS
PUBLIC TRANSFERS PER CAPITA 100000 Per capita Public transfer deficit
Public Inflow s
Public Outflow s
CFA
50000
0
-50000
-100000
-150000
-200000
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
INTERHOUSEHOLDS TRANSFERS 300
250
Per capita outflows Per capita inflows Net_Private transfers per capita
Thousands CFA
200
150
100
50
1 (50)
(100)
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
BRIEF REMARKS ON TRANSFERS PROFILES • Net public transfers show a deficit (18+): people are not relying so much on public systeme • Net private inter household transfers is important: remittances from foreign workers
WHERE TO GO? • Construct Intra Households transfers accounts • Complete the second part of NTA Flow
THE END
