Slides All

Extending the Life Of Submarine Cable Networks Steve   John     Elaine   Dawe,   Stafford,   Hibbard,   David  Ross   Hi...

0 downloads 85 Views 2MB Size
Extending the Life Of Submarine Cable Networks

Steve   John     Elaine   Dawe,   Stafford,   Hibbard,   David  Ross   Hibbard   Vodafone,   Group   Consul6ng   In  absen6a         HOW?   WHY?   CHAIR   (“Done  it  &   Using  it”)  

Larry   Moskowitz,   AT&T,       HOW?   (“Done  it  &     Using  it”)  

Seymour   Shapiro,   Ex-­‐SubCom.       RELIABILITY  

Stuart   Barnes   Xtera       HOW?   (“Supplied    It”)  

Raynald   LeConte   Orange       MARINE   (“Laid  it”)    

Bernard   Logan   Mertech       SALVAGE  

Keith     Schofield   Pioneer       SubOpIc   Working   Group  

Introductions

Elaine Stafford, The David Ross Group

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

Recycling Pre-Owned Cable Networks: Perspective on Recent Success Stories

2004-­‐  Recycling  Pre-­‐Owned  Systems  &  Shore  Ends  Proposed  at  SubOp@c:   as  a  poten@al  win-­‐win  means  to:   •  • 

Connect  remote  regions  where  new  cables  were  unaffordable,  and   Keep  supplier  marine  assets  in  service  during  market  down-­‐turn  

Since  2006:     •  •  •  •  • 

Seven  recycled  networks  have  been  installed  and  commissioned  in  the  Pacific,   Caribbean  and  Atlan@c   Several  of  these  extend  between  1000-­‐2000  km  in  length   All  are  reliably  providing  service  today  for  various  global  operators   None  have  experienced  any  internal  wet-­‐system  failure   All  were  recycled,  with  teams  of  experts,  using  cables  installed  in  the  mid-­‐90’s   •  •  • 

All  used  recycled  repeaters,  except  the  one  network  which  was  repeaterless   Most  used  simply  lightweight  cable,  but  some  also  recycled  shore  ends  and   armored  cable   Some  used  new  SLTEs  and  PFEs,  while  others  recycled  this  equipment  

Today:  a  proven,  affordable  alterna@ve  for  some  low-­‐capacity  regional   routes.  The  cost/benefit  is  very  solu@on-­‐specific.   Elaine Stafford,

The David Ross Group

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

The Recycling “Imperative” Affordable  Alterna@ve:  Remote,  low-­‐popula@on  island-­‐na@ons  remain   dependent  solely  on  satellite  and  would  benefit  from  fiber-­‐  if  it  was  affordable   Essen@al  Op@on:  Recycling  can  significantly  reduce  ini@al  capital  cost,  making   fiber  an  affordable  and  essen@al  op@on  for  some  regions   Ample  Capacity:  Even  with  reduced  capacity,  s@ll  can  be  abundant  for  skinny   routes   Reliable  Performance:  Life@me  forecast  for  recycled  cable  networks  can  be  many   years,  if  terminal  gear  (and  poten@ally  also  repeaters)  are  replaced,  and   warranted  comparably  to  new  networks   Timely  Availability:  Project  implementa@on  @me  similar  to  new  systems   Green  Solu@on:    cleans  seabed;  classic  recycling;  reduced  CO2  emission    -­‐-­‐   environmental  bonanza,  for  as  long  as  there  remains  suitable  cable  to  recover   Market  &  Finance  Percep@on  Problems:  gradually  being  overcome  and  accepted   by  banks  and  boards    (“Pre-­‐Owned”  vs.  “Second-­‐Hand”,  and  novel  need  not   mean  risky)       John Hibbard,

Hibbard Consulting

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

Economics and Expertise   The  economics  of  recycling  project  are  extremely  sensi@ve  to:   •  scope  of  recovery,     •  vessel  rate  and  endurance,    and   •  asset  transfer  fees.     Any  of  these  factors  (or  a  combina@on  thereof)  can  render  recycling  unviable.  Other   project  variables  make  li`le  difference  vis-­‐à-­‐vis  the  economics  of  new  vs.  recycled.    

  Key  to  recycling  success  is:   •  •  •  • 

close  teamwork  within  and  among  the  contrac@ng  partners,   coopera@ve  route  and  marine  engineering  defining  a  low  risk  technical  solu@on   matching  asset  availability  with  route  requirements,   an  experienced  project  engineering  and  management  team,     an  appropriate  risk  and  reward  structure-­‐  par@cularly  between  system  integrator,   marine  contractor  and  system  engineer  func@ons.  

 

Steve Dawe, Vodafone

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

Technical and Commercial Issues   Success  of  a  recycled  system  depends  on  good  line  design.    This  requires   experienced  vendors  with  deep  knowledge  of  system  impairments     Availability  of  cable  and  repeater  data  of  recycled  system  important  to   providing  a  good  line  design     Working  with  experienced  marine  operator  who  has  either  done  significant   repairs  or  recovered  systems  in  the  past  and  knows  the  area  where   recovery  will  occur     Cost  benefit  of  recovery  of  cable  and  repeaters  vs.  new  produc@on  needs   to  be  weighed.       • 

May  not  be  able  to  recover  armored  cable  as  it  is  buried  and  may  be   underneath  other  cables  so  cheaper  to  produce  new  cable  

• 

Use  of  exis@ng  shore  sec@ons  to  avoid  permidng  and  addi@onal  costs  

  Local  laws  and  fishermen  rights  to  be  respected  if  recycled  system  to  be   recovered  in  territorial  and  economic  zones     Larry Moskowitz, AT&T

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

Cable System Reliability    Fiber  Reliability:  >>  25  years  

•  Hydrogen  ageing  and  fiber  breaks  observed  early  in  system  life  –   residual  life  >>  25  years  

   Repeater  Reliability/Life@me:  >  25  years  

•  Housing  (>>  25  years)  and  electro-­‐op@cs  >  25  years   •  Repeater  replacement  may  introduce  incremental  reliability  risk  due  to   shipboard  join@ng  (moulding)    

   Cable  Mechanical/Insula@on  Integrity:  Poten@ally  >>  25  years    

•  Armored  cable  more  robust  than  armorless,  but  more  difficult  to  recover   •  Repeatered  cable  be`er  protected  (thicker  insula@on)  than  repeaterless   •  Careful  inspec@on  during  recovery  to  find  &  repair  damage  is  cri@cally   important;  risk  of  latent  damage  must  be  managed   •  Matching  recovered  cable/fiber  type  and  segment-­‐lengths  with  new-­‐ network  required  SLD  requires  expert  engineering  and  management  

   Terminal  Life@me:  wear  out  managed  by  repair   Seymour Shapiro,

past TE-SubCom CTO

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

System Design Perspective: Repeaters are the key   Network  transmission  capability  and  network  reliability  are  both  largely  determined   by  the  repeaters.  Replacing  repeaters  can  improve  both,  but  is  not  always   warranted.     Addi@onally,  the  network  cost  savings  afforded  thru  recycling  can  be  swayed  by  the   decision  of  new  vs.  recycled  repeaters,  but  is  largely  driven  by  recycled-­‐cable   purchase  price  and    marine  recovery  expense     Marine  costs  can  be  measurably   greater  with  recycling  

Illustrative  Comparative  Costs

  Cable  costs  are  likely  meaningfully   less  with  recycling  

 $40.0  $30.0

  Repeater  cost  savings  can  vary   considerably,  depending  on  whether   they  are  replaced  (or  not),  perhaps   to  achieve  greater  network  capacity  

 $20.0  $10.0  $-­‐ New

Recyle  w/Repeaters

Dry  Plant

Recovered  Wet  Plant

New  Cable

Marine-­‐  Recovery

Marine-­‐Install

Other

Recyle  (New Repeaters)

  Dry  Plant  Costs  –  small  part  of  the   equa@on  and  can  be  recycled  (or   not)  with  wet  plant  

New  Repeaters

 

Stuart Barnes, Xtera

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

Illustrative payback model -Assumptions

  The  pressured  CEO  and  Gov’t  are  de-­‐stressed   because  a  handful  of  100Gs  can  last  a  lifeKme!  

100  

Recycled  system   Recycled  &  New  Repeater  

80  

New  System  

60  

40  

20  

0  

-­‐20  

-­‐40  

YEAR  0   YEAR  1   YEAR  2   YEAR  3   YEAR  4   YEAR  5   YEAR  6   YEAR  7   YEAR  8   YEAR  9   YEAR  10   YEAR  11   YEAR  12   YEAR  13   YEAR  14   YEAR  15   YEAR  16   YEAR  17   YEAR  18   YEAR  19   YEAR  20   YEAR  21   YEAR  22   YEAR  23   YEAR  24   YEAR  25  

ANNUAL  PROFITABILITY  (US$M)  

 Small  PopulaKon  &  Capacity  Demand                                                                                                                                                      1000  km  from  hub  

  The  Fat  Controller  is  happy  with  the   return,  but  even  happier  with  the  iniKal   savings!     Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

Repeater Reliability An Illustrative Example   The  least  reliable  element  in  a  repeater  is  the  pump  laser     The  wear-­‐out  mechanism  for  lasers  follows  a  lognormal  distribu@on,   which  exhibits  an  increasing  failure  rate  with  @me.     For  a  somewhat  typical  laser  with  failure  rate  85  FITs  over  25  years,  it  is   reasonable  extrapolate  that  for  37  years  (50%  longer)  to:   •  •  • 

128  FITs  per  pump;   5.3  FITS  per  redundant  pump  pair  (vs.  1.6  FITS);   27.4  FITS  per  2-­‐pr  repeater  (vs.  20  FITS);  

  For  a  3000-­‐km,  30-­‐repeater  system,  this  results  in:   •  • 

30  X  27.4  =  822  FITs.   0.27  ship  repairs  over  37  years.   Repeater  reliability  for  a  recycled  regional  network,  recycled  aUer  10-­‐15  years  of   operaIon,    is  well  within  acceptable  system-­‐design  requirements.  

Stuart Barnes, Xtera

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

System Power Budgets: Recycling with Ample Transmission Margin Recycled  System  Power  Budgets:     Are  technically  the  same  as  for  a  new  build,  but:   •  • 

Margin  mainly  for  repairs,  as  ageing  should  be  small   Wet-­‐plant  performance  should  be  well-­‐known,  and  require  less  for  “unknowns”  

  Oten  start  with  extra/excess  opera@ng  margin   •  • 

Older  systems  had  very  conserva@ve  design  and  implementa@on,  resul@ng  in  more  margin  than   specified  in  the  original  requirements   Target  system  may  be  shorter  /  capacity  modest  

  Typically  are  based  on  wet-­‐plant  performance  measurements   •  •  •  • 

Needed  if  data  is  not  available  –  some@mes  for  “Legal”  reasons   Typically  on  one  pair  only  –  are  the  others  the  same?   Takes  @me,  par@cularly  for  several  poten@al  suppliers  to  test   There  are  alterna@ves  

  May  demonstrate  value  of  poten@ally  replacing  old  repeaters  with  new   •  •  • 

More  bandwidth,  less  noise  ⇨ more  capacity,  longer  poten@al  life.  A`ainable  capacity  is  likely:    greatest  with  a  new  system,  least  without  replacing  repeaters,  and  in-­‐between  if  repeaters  are  replaced   Adds  a  li`le  cost  and  @me,  but  needs  to  be  examined  in  the  cost/benefit  balance   Depends  on  several  factors,  not  all  technical,  and  needs  to  be  assessed  case-­‐by-­‐case  

  Stuart Barnes, Xtera

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

Proven Marine Experience FT-­‐Marine  Experience  :  two  large  projects  for  which  the  customer  owned  the  system  to  be   recovered  and  decided  to  redeploy  the  cable  and  repeaters.  This  was  solving  the  ownership   transfer  of  assets.   Marine  Scope:  Op@mizing  the  cost  of  marine  ops.   •  The  projects  were  made  on  board  CS  René  Descartes  with  her  three  tanks.     •  The  cable  and  the  repeaters  were  tested  during  the  recovery  phase.     •  The  new  system  was  constructed  on  board  while  recovering.    

 

Recovered  Cable  Quality:  Minimal  cable  damage   occurred  during  recovery  which  required  repair  before   relaying.  No  faults  were  experienced  during  or  ater  lay.   Excess  Recovered  Repeaters:  The  number  of  repeaters   recovered  enabled  some  to  be  allocated  to  the   maintenance  reserve   Splicing  in  New  Repeaters  On  Board?:  enabled  by  UJ   Cable/Route  Engineering:  The  issue  of  the  availability   and  engineering  of  the  armored  cable  into  the  new   route  is  cri@cal   Other  Advantages:  in  one  of  our  project,  the  reuse  of   the  landing  sta@ons,  that  of  course  simplified  dras@cally   the  permits  issue  

Raynald LeConte, Orange (FT-Marine)

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

When Recycling Uneconomical, SALVAGE

Benefits  of  Recovery:  

•  Removes  Con@nuous  Third  Party   risks  and  Permidng  Payments   •  Frees  up  sea  floor  route  for  new   cables   •  Recycling  of  Cable  Materials:  poly,   steel,  copper,  Environmental  Saving   •  Recovery  of  Repeaters:  Hazardous   Material  Handling  and  recycling     metals  

Challenges  in  Recovery:   •  Cable  Crossing  Data   •  Keeping  Costs  Down   •  Seeking  Original  Owners  Agreement  

Bernard Logan, Mertech Marine

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

Recycling 8000 km cable saves up to 286,000 tons of CO2 emissions New   products   Virgin input material

Recycled    products  

HDPE Plastic LDPE Plastic

1765 tons

68-136 GJ/ ton

20-42 tons CO2/ ton

3531 tons

68-136 GJ/ ton

20-42 tons CO2 /ton

Copper

2528 tons

44-83 GJ / ton

14-26 tons CO2 / ton

Steel

2336 tons

30-39 GJ /ton

9-12 tons CO2 /ton

TOTAL

10,160 tons

580K- 960K GJ

175,000 – 295,000 tons CO2

Recovery  at  sea  

116 tons CO2

Dismantling  

Undersea cable

166,000-­‐286, 000  tons  CO2   net  saving  

4,377 tons CO2

Transport  

PelleKsing  

148 tons CO2 2,860 tons CO2

Transport  to  client   TOTAL  

•  Plastic pellets •  Copper chips •  Steel cable

766 tons CO2

•  Plastic pellets •  Copper chips •  Steel cable

8,267 tons CO2

Note:  1)  Values  are  rounded.  Values  differ  between  sources  due  to  different  methods  of  produc@on  and  different  means  of  energy  genera@on                        2)  A  factor  of  1.08  kg  CO2  per  kWh  has  been  used  based  on  energy  produc@on  in  South  Africa  as  per  Smart  Living  Handbook                        3)  15%  has  been  subtracted  from  the  values  given  in  the  sources  in  order  to  compare  like  with  like,  since  the  values  in  the  sources  are  for  new  final  products,  whereas   the  values  calculated  for  recycled  material  are  for  pellets,  chips  and  cable  (i.e.  one  stage  before  final  product)   Sources:  Smart  Living  Handbook  (City  of  Cape  Town,  South  Africa,  2007,  www.capetown.gov.za),  www.ecofx.org,  www.wikipedia.com    

Bernard Logan, Mertech Marine

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

SubOptic Working Group Extending Working Life of Submarine Systems

  A  ‘Good  News’  story  for  the  industry     Voluntary  Cross-­‐industry  Collabora@on,  12+  involved   already  –  you  can  help  define  the  issues  to  resolve     Workstreams  on  Technical,  Opera@onal,  Commercial,   Financial,  Legal  &  Regulatory     Covers  extending  system  life  and  recovery/re-­‐lay     SubOp@c  2016  Workshop  to  present  the  findings     Much  work  to  do  –  volunteer  where  you  can  help   (see  Keith  Schofield  ater  this)  

Keith Schoefield, Pioneer

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

Extending the Life Of Submarine Cable Networks

Steve   John     Elaine   Dawe,   Stafford,   Hibbard,   David  Ross   Hibbard   Vodafone,   Group   Consul6ng   In  absen6a        

Larry   Moskowitz,   AT&T,      

Seymour   Shapiro,   Ex-­‐SubCom.      

Stuart   Barnes   Xtera      

Raynald   LeConte   Orange        

Bernard   Logan   Mertech      

Keith     Schofield   Pioneer      

Questions ? Thank You!

Elaine Stafford, The David Ross Group

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

BACKUP  

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

A worked example or two….      Proof  tes@ng:  

•  100kV  for  9  days  (equivalent  to  10kV  constant  voltage  for  25   years)   •  Cable  life@me    𝑡∝​𝑉↑−𝑛    •  Assume  ultra-­‐conserva@ve  power  law  exponent    n  =  3  

     Original  system  parameters:  

•  System  length    3500km   •  System  voltage    7kV   •  Opera@onal  life  to  date  10  years  

     Re-­‐laid  system  parameters:  

•  System  length    1500km   •  System  Voltage    3kV   •  Es@mated  remaining  life@me  800  years  

Stuart Barnes, Xtera

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15  

System Power Budgets: Recycling with Ample Transmission Margin   Op@cal  power  budgets  for  both  new  &  recycled  systems  must  be  engineered   with  margin  to  allow  for  con@nued  aging,  repairs  and  transmission   impairments     Most  recycled  systems  do  not  change  the  original  network  repeater  spacing     Most  recycled  systems  are  oten  shorter  than  and  require  less  capacity  than   their  original  network.  Thus,  original  repeater  spacing    and  power  levels  are   inherently  conserva@ve  rela@ve  to  requirements  for  their  new  home  and  offer   ample  margin     Nonetheless,  original  network  performance  data  is  important  to  collect,   analyse,  understand,  and  model  in  a  new  network  power  budget  for  the   recycled  network.     Recycled  networks’  power  budgets  may  not  be  “op@mized”  in  the  same  way  a   new  system  would  be,  to  reduce  repeater  count,  but  they  will  be  engineered   with  more  than  ample  margin  for  the  recycled  network’s  new  life@me   Stuart Barnes, Xtera

Emerging  SubSea  Networks-­‐   the  world’s  expanding  treasure  

Proud  Sponsor  of  PTC’15