Demographic Dividend in Bangladesh An Application of National Time Transfer Accounts with Age and Gender Muhammad Moshiur Rahman South Asian Network on Economic Modeling
NTA Team in Bangldesh Dr. Bazlul Haque Khondker Dr. Selim Raihan Muhammad Moshiur Rahman Syer Tazim Haque
Contents • • • • •
Demographic structure and transition Bangladesh’s sector growth performance An overview of National Transfer Accounts Descriptive analysis of time use survey of 2012 Policy issues
Demographic Structure and Transition 100+ 95‐99 90‐94 85‐89 80‐84 75‐79 70‐74 65‐69 60‐64 55‐59 50‐54 45‐49 40‐44 35‐39 30‐34 25‐29 20‐24 15‐19 9‐14 5‐9 0‐4 10000 8000 6000
4000 2000
2010
0 2000 4000
2050
2030 Female
6000 8000
Male
10000
Demographic Transition 60
3.5 3
50 2.5 40
2 1.5
30 1 0.5
20
0 10 ‐0.5 ‐1
0
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Population growth rate
Bangladesh’s Sector Growth Performance
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 1990‐95
1995‐00
2000‐01
2001‐02
2002‐03
2003‐04
Agriculture
2004‐05
2005‐06
Manufacturing
2006‐07 service
2007‐08
2008‐09 Total GDP
2009‐10
2010‐11
2011‐12
2012‐13
Methodology • Calculating private consumption • Distributing Public Consumption • Calculating Wage and Self Employment Income • Incorporating Government Transfers to the Households • Age Band Distribution
Per Capita Income and Consumption of Different Age Groups 1600.0000
1400.0000
1200.0000
1000.0000
800.0000
600.0000
400.0000
200.0000
0.0000 0‐4 05‐09 10‐14 15‐19 20‐24 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64 65‐69 70‐74 75‐79 80‐84 85‐89 90‐94 95‐99 100+
Per Capita Income
Per Capita Consumption
Per Capita Income Net of Government Transfers 1600.0000
1400.0000
1200.0000
1000.0000
800.0000
600.0000
400.0000
200.0000
0.0000 0‐4 05‐09 10‐14 15‐19 20‐24 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64 65‐69 70‐74 75‐79 80‐84 85‐89 90‐94 95‐99 100+
Per Capita Income Net of SP
Per Capita Consumption
Per Capita Government Transfers 70.0000
60.0000
50.0000
40.0000
30.0000
20.0000
10.0000
0.0000 0‐4 05‐09 10‐14 15‐19 20‐24 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64 65‐69 70‐74 75‐79 80‐84 85‐89 90‐94 95‐99 100+
Government Transfers
Life Cycle Deficit/Surplus (aggregate) 20000000000.0000
15000000000.0000
10000000000.0000
5000000000.0000
0.0000 0‐4 05‐09 10‐14 15‐19 20‐24 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64 65‐69 70‐74 75‐79 80‐84 85‐89 90‐94 95‐99 100+ ‐5000000000.0000
‐10000000000.0000
‐15000000000.0000 Life Cycle Deficit/Surplus
Average Hours Worked of Employed Population Age 15 and Above 18 15.7
16
15.2
14.6 14.4 14
12
10
8
6
6.9
6.9 5.2
5.2
3.6
3.6
4
2
1.4
1.1
1.5 0.8
0 Paid work
Household work
Leisure work
Other work Male
Source: Time Use Pilot Survey Report 2012
Female
SNA
Non‐SNA
Non‐Productive
Average Hours Worked of Unemployed Population Age 15 and Above 25 22.8 20.6 20 17.8 16.5 15
10
6.2
6.2 5 2.2 1.2 0
1.3
1.2
0
0
0
0 Paid work
Household work
Leisure work
Other work Male
Source: Time Use Pilot Survey Report 2012
Female
SNA
Non‐SNA
Non‐Productive
Average Hours Worked of Unemployed Population Age 15 Years and Above in Rural and Urban Areas
16
14.7
13.6
14
12
10
8
7.3 6.3
6
4 2 2
1.6
1.6 1
0 Paid work
Household work
Leisure work Rural
Source: Time Use Pilot Survey Report 2012
Urban
Other work
Average Hours Worked of Unemployed Population Age 15 Years and Above in Rural and Urban Areas Type of activity
Rural
Urban
Male
Female
Male
Paid work
6.7
5.0
7.7
Household work
1.5
3.6
1.0
Leisure work
1.1
0.7
1.6
1.4
Other work
14.7
14.6
13.7
13.5
Source: Time Use Pilot Survey Report 2012
Female 6.2 3.0
Policy Issues • Maximum utilization of the demographic dividend • Change in the public transfer system
Thank You
