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NTA Mexico Iván Mejía Guevara Carlos Galindo CONSEJO NACIONAL DE POBLACIÓN CEPAL/IDRC PROJECT Honolulu, June 19 2008 Na...

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NTA Mexico Iván Mejía Guevara Carlos Galindo CONSEJO NACIONAL DE POBLACIÓN CEPAL/IDRC PROJECT Honolulu, June 19 2008

National Transfer Accounts

Introduction

National Transfer Accounts

Age structure Age 100

2000

90

2050

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

National Transfer Accounts

0.2

0.0 Millions

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

TFR, 1950-2050 Sharp fertility decline, total population still growing 140 000 000

8.00

120 000 000

7.00 6.00 Population

5.00

80 000 000 4.00 TFR

60 000 000

3.00 40 000 000

2.00

20 000 000

1.00 0.00

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

National Transfer Accounts

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

Year

TFR

Population

100 000 000

Household Head ►

Reported ones are older than economic HH Thousands

Household Heads (absolute numbers)

1,000 900

Economic

800

Self-reported

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0

5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Age

National Transfer Accounts

Household Head ►

Given population age distribution (young), HH rates are very different Household Head Rates 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Economic

0.3

Self-reported 0.2 0.1 0.0 0

5

10 15

20 25 30

National Transfer Accounts

35 40 45

50 55

60 65 70

75 80

85 90 Age

L/N Workers / Population 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 Age

National Transfer Accounts

LCD

National Transfer Accounts

LCD, Mexico 2004

National Transfer Accounts

Economic Dependency Rate

National Transfer Accounts

PULIC TRANSFERS

National Transfer Accounts

Public Transfers, Inflows

National Transfer Accounts

► Institutional

Public Income

Federal Government Tributary ISR - income IVA - consumption IEPS Imports Owning a car ISAN – new car Other Non tributary Rights Products Fines, interests and other revenues Improvements ? Public Enterprises Pemex (Oil) Other Other Oil – non Oil dependant Source: HCP

National Transfer Accounts

Oil / non Oil Oil

IVA (VAT) IEPS Imports Rights Specially for Pemex Non Oil Tributary ISR - income IVA (VAT) IEPS (Alcohol, Tobacco, Beverages) Imports Other Non tributary Government Rights Products Fines, interests and other revenues Other Other Enterprises (without Pemex)

Public Resources, Mexico 2006 1,973.5

1,973.5

1,973.5

Debt

Adefas

20

13.9

100% 90% 80% 70%

Public Enterprises 613.7

Committed expenditure 566.6

Financial 261.8cost State & local Gov.

60%

638.4

50%

42.9

40%

Federal Gov

Unpledged expenditure

30% 20% 1,339.8

1,406.9

Public 367.8 Enterprises

Central Public Admin

10% 648.7 0% Source: HCP

Sources

National Transfer Accounts

Uses

Other Gov. Inst

Uses

Oil and Non-Oil Budget Dependency No Oil

Oil

Source: SHCP

National Transfer Accounts

Distribution of Income Tax

Source: SHCP

National Transfer Accounts

Tax Revenue 2000 (% GDP)

Source: OECD, SHCP

National Transfer Accounts

Per capita GDP and Tax Revenue OECD

Per Capita GDP (1996 US$ )

Tax Revenue (%GDP) Source: OECD, SHCP

National Transfer Accounts

Public Transfers, Outflows

National Transfer Accounts

Contribution of ISR and SSC by Income deciles

Source: SHCP

National Transfer Accounts

Contribution of ISR and SSC by Income deciles

National Transfer Accounts

Public Transfers, Outflows

National Transfer Accounts

Cash Public Transfers

National Transfer Accounts

Net Public Transfers

National Transfer Accounts

DIVIDENDS

National Transfer Accounts

Dividend

Tau=0.5 TG=0.015 AVD=0.03 AIR=0.06

National Transfer Accounts

Wealth

National Transfer Accounts

Thank You!

National Transfer Accounts