NTA Mexico Iván Mejía Guevara Carlos Galindo CONSEJO NACIONAL DE POBLACIÓN CEPAL/IDRC PROJECT Honolulu, June 19 2008
National Transfer Accounts
Introduction
National Transfer Accounts
Age structure Age 100
2000
90
2050
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
National Transfer Accounts
0.2
0.0 Millions
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
TFR, 1950-2050 Sharp fertility decline, total population still growing 140 000 000
8.00
120 000 000
7.00 6.00 Population
5.00
80 000 000 4.00 TFR
60 000 000
3.00 40 000 000
2.00
20 000 000
1.00 0.00
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
National Transfer Accounts
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
Year
TFR
Population
100 000 000
Household Head ►
Reported ones are older than economic HH Thousands
Household Heads (absolute numbers)
1,000 900
Economic
800
Self-reported
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0
5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Age
National Transfer Accounts
Household Head ►
Given population age distribution (young), HH rates are very different Household Head Rates 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Economic
0.3
Self-reported 0.2 0.1 0.0 0
5
10 15
20 25 30
National Transfer Accounts
35 40 45
50 55
60 65 70
75 80
85 90 Age
L/N Workers / Population 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 Age
National Transfer Accounts
LCD
National Transfer Accounts
LCD, Mexico 2004
National Transfer Accounts
Economic Dependency Rate
National Transfer Accounts
PULIC TRANSFERS
National Transfer Accounts
Public Transfers, Inflows
National Transfer Accounts
► Institutional
Public Income
Federal Government Tributary ISR - income IVA - consumption IEPS Imports Owning a car ISAN – new car Other Non tributary Rights Products Fines, interests and other revenues Improvements ? Public Enterprises Pemex (Oil) Other Other Oil – non Oil dependant Source: HCP
National Transfer Accounts
Oil / non Oil Oil
IVA (VAT) IEPS Imports Rights Specially for Pemex Non Oil Tributary ISR - income IVA (VAT) IEPS (Alcohol, Tobacco, Beverages) Imports Other Non tributary Government Rights Products Fines, interests and other revenues Other Other Enterprises (without Pemex)
Public Resources, Mexico 2006 1,973.5
1,973.5
1,973.5
Debt
Adefas
20
13.9
100% 90% 80% 70%
Public Enterprises 613.7
Committed expenditure 566.6
Financial 261.8cost State & local Gov.
60%
638.4
50%
42.9
40%
Federal Gov
Unpledged expenditure
30% 20% 1,339.8
1,406.9
Public 367.8 Enterprises
Central Public Admin
10% 648.7 0% Source: HCP
Sources
National Transfer Accounts
Uses
Other Gov. Inst
Uses
Oil and Non-Oil Budget Dependency No Oil
Oil
Source: SHCP
National Transfer Accounts
Distribution of Income Tax
Source: SHCP
National Transfer Accounts
Tax Revenue 2000 (% GDP)
Source: OECD, SHCP
National Transfer Accounts
Per capita GDP and Tax Revenue OECD
Per Capita GDP (1996 US$ )
Tax Revenue (%GDP) Source: OECD, SHCP
National Transfer Accounts
Public Transfers, Outflows
National Transfer Accounts
Contribution of ISR and SSC by Income deciles
Source: SHCP
National Transfer Accounts
Contribution of ISR and SSC by Income deciles
National Transfer Accounts
Public Transfers, Outflows
National Transfer Accounts
Cash Public Transfers
National Transfer Accounts
Net Public Transfers
National Transfer Accounts
DIVIDENDS
National Transfer Accounts
Dividend
Tau=0.5 TG=0.015 AVD=0.03 AIR=0.06
National Transfer Accounts
Wealth
National Transfer Accounts
Thank You!
National Transfer Accounts