NTA Mexico Iván Mejía Guevara Carlos Galindo CONSEJO NACIONAL DE POBLACIÓN CEPAL/IDRC PROJECT Honolulu, June 19 2008 National Transfer Accounts
Inter Household Transfers
National Transfer Accounts
Inter-household Transfers Data from survey ►
Inflows
►
Outflows
59,500 million pesos
91,607 million pesos
(components)
(components)
►
Domestic aggregate control on Outflows = 117,715 million pesos taken from Other Current Transfers, Household (uses)
National Transfer Accounts
Inter-household Transfers Per Capita, Domestic, Inter-household Transfers, Mexico, 2004 8,000 Inflows Outflows
Mexican Pesos
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age
►
Domestic balance = zero domestic net inter-hh transfers
National Transfer Accounts
Inter-household Transfers 4,000
Millions
Aggregate, Domestic, Inter-household Transfers, Mexico, 2004 Inflows Outflows
3,000 Mexican Pesos
2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age
►
Domestic balance = zero domestic net inter-hh transfers
National Transfer Accounts
Remittances 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Million dollars
16,730
9,653
4,181
Central Bank in Mexico
Surveys, census & other sources in Mexico
National Transfer Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis (USA)
►Several
inconsistencies in central bank data
Levels and trends do not correspond with other aspects of migration phenomena (i.e. receiving households, regions of origin of migrants, trend of Mexican population in the US, estimations of the Bureau of Economic Analysis in US and estimations from Mexican census and surveys). Central Bank figures might include other money transfers.
Inter-household Transfers ►
Aggregate control for Net Inter-household Transfers = 193,619 million pesos taken from Other Current Transfers, Rest of the World (ROW uses) = Remittances data from Central Bank Per Capita Inter-household Transfers, Mexico, 2004 8,000
Mexican Pesos
6,000
Inflows
4,000 Remittances
2,000 0
Outflows
-2,000 -4,000 -6,000 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
Age
National Transfer Accounts
Inter-household Transfers Aggregate Inter-household Transfers, Mexico, 2004 10,000
Millions Total Inflows (with net remittances)
Mexican Pesos
8,000 6,000 4,000
Domestic Inflows
2,000 0
Outflows
-2,000 -4,000 -6,000 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Age National Transfer Accounts
90+
Inter-household Transfers
Mexican Pesos
Per Capita, Net Inter-household Transfers, Mexico, 2004 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000
Inflows
Net InterHousehold Tranfers Outflows
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 8590+
Age National Transfer Accounts
Inter-household Transfers Aggragate, Net Inter-household Transfers, Mexico, 2004 10,000
Millions
Inflows
Mexican Pesos
8,000 6,000 4,000
Net InterHousehold Tranfers
2,000 0
Outflows
-2,000 -4,000 -6,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age National Transfer Accounts
DIVIDENDS
National Transfer Accounts
Dividend
Tau=0.5 TG=0.015 AVD=0.03 AIR=0.06
National Transfer Accounts
Wealth
National Transfer Accounts
Public Outflows
National Transfer Accounts
Aggregate Controls Transfer Outflows (UN SNA Classification): Mexico 2004 (million pesos) TOTAL Taxes on production and imports [1] Taxes on products Value added type taxes (VAT) Taxes and duties on imports excluding VAT Export Taxes Taxes on products except VAT, import and export taxes Monopoly revenues and excise and stamp taxes from tobacco and alcohol Taxes on financial transactions Other Other taxes on production Subsidies [1] Subsidies on products Import subsidies Export subsidies Other subsidies on products Other subsidies on production Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. [2] Taxes on income Other current taxes Social contributions [2,3] Employers' actual social contributions Employees' actual social contributions Social contributions by self- and non-employed persons Imputed social contributions Other current transfer outflows [2] Other current transfers, domestic [4] Other current transfers, rest of the world [5] Classification from UN SNA 1993.
(1,509,301) (819,276) (777,816) (291,147) (29,693) (110,711) (346,264) (86,387) (218,417) (41,460) 32,778 32,778 32,778 (405,613) (368,114) (37,499) (175,415) (153,351) (22,065) (141,775) (141,039) (736)
VAT Imports
?
IEPS
?
ISR SSC
Other
National Transfer Accounts
Aggregate Controls Public Transfer Inflows Classified by Sector: Mexico 2004 (million pesos)
Sector Total Education Health Pensions Other Social Protection Other ROW
National Transfer Accounts
Public Transfer Inflows In-kind Transfer Cash Transfer Total Inflows Inflows Inflows 1,236,040 913,971 322,069 332,544 332,544 171,207 171,207 83,817 147,973 500,499 326,403 174,096 -
Aggregate Controls Structure of Public Flow Account: Mexico 2004 (million pesos) Public Transfers Net Public Transfers Public Transfer Inflows 1,236,040 In-kind Transfer Inflows 913,971 Cash Transfer Inflows 322,069 Public Transfer Outflows (1,236,040) Taxes and Grants (1,509,301) Transfers Surplus(+)/Deficit(-) 273,261 Public Asset-based Flows Public Asset-based Reallocations (208,174) Asset Income Less: Public Saving [1] 0 208,174 1. Table 9.1 Use of disposable income account (p 204) Saving, net for general government.
National Transfer Accounts
Aggregate Controls Public Transfers Indirect Taxes (VAT, IEPS), Mexico, 2004 30,000 Total SSC OTHER TAXES
25,000
DIRECT TAXES INDIRECT TAXES
Mexican Pesos
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
-5,000 Age
National Transfer Accounts
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
Intra Household Transfers
National Transfer Accounts
First Results Intra-household Health Transfers (Inflows), Mexico, 2004 5,000 4,500 4,000
Mexican Pesos
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46 Age
National Transfer Accounts
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
New Preliminary Estimation Intra-household Health Transfers (Inflows), Mexico, 2004 2,000 1,800 1,600
Mexican Pesos
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
Age
National Transfer Accounts
Problem -Adjusted profiles (cce, cch, ccx, tgtax,…) in micro level - Many profiles (taxes for instances) - Different strategies used for estimation
National Transfer Accounts
91
Thank You!
National Transfer Accounts
