QUARTER FOUR 2012/13 QUARTERLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (QGDP)
1. Introduction Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (QGDP) at constant 2002 prices is estimated to have declined by 0.6 percent from shs.6,155 Bn (revised) in Q4 2012/13 to shs. 6,119 Bn in Q1 2013/14. The decline is attributed to the reduction in value added for crop growing, forestry and fishing activities declined by 3.4 Percent from shs. 795 Bn (revised) in Q4 2012/13 to shs. 768 Bn in Q1 2013/14. In addition, the services sector registered a decline in value added of 0.5 percent from shs.3,238 Bn (revised) in Q4 2012/13 to shs. 3,221 Bn in Q1 2013/14. However, the value added for the industry sector grew by 0.1 percent from shs. 1,563 Bn (revised) in Q4 2012/13 to shs. 1,564 Bn in Q1 2013/14. 1. Explanations for the changes 1.1. Agriculture, fishing and forestry The sector contributed a share of 12.6 percent to the overall GDP estimates. The cash crop and food crop growing activities, with about 60 percent combined share within the sector, registered a decline in value added of 3.4 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively during Q1 2013/14. This was largely due to the unreliable rainfall during the first crop season of the year. Most parts of the country received late rains that were not conducive for crop growing. In particular, late planting in the first season of 2013 lead to low yields especially for tea, sugarcane, Matooke, cassava and sweet potatoes. On the other hand, Livestock rearing, fishing activities and forestry, with a combined share of about 40 percent within the sector, registered growth in value added of 0.9 percent, 1.1 percent and 0.5 percent respectively in Q1 2013/14.
1.2. Industry Value added for the industrial sector, with a share of 25.6 percent of overall QGDP, grew by one billion shillings (0.1 percent) in Q1 2013/14 from shs. 1,563 Bn in Q4 2012/13 (revised) to shs. 1,564 Bn in Q1 2013/14. Mining and quarrying activities value added registered the highest growth of 18.9 percent as a result of increased production of Syenitic aggragate and Kaoline. Electricity supply, water supply and construction activities value added also grew by 0.1 percent, 2.9 percent and 0.1 percent respectively. However, manufacturing with a 27 percent share of the sector registered a decline in value added by 1.7 percent. This was largely as a result of reduction in Food processing, Textiles, Clothing and Footwear and Saw milling, Paper and printing activities. Food processing declined due to closure of one of the sugar factories for routine maintenance during Q1 2013/14. Textiles, Clothing and Footwear production declined due to reduced demand at the export market and the low yields of cotton.
1.3. Services The services sector, with a share of 52.6 percent of total value added, registered a declined in value added of 0.5 percent in Q1 2013/14 from shs. 3,238 Bn in Q4 2012/13 to shs. 3,221 Bn in Q1 2013/14. In addition, Wholesale and retail trade, with nearly 25 percent share of value added for the sector, registered a decline in value added by 0.1 percent due to decline in agriculture as well as manufactured goods. Value added for public administration, education, health and social work activities with a combined share of about 19 percent also registered a decline in Q1 2013/14. However, Transport & communications, financial services and Real estate activities with, a combined share of about 39 percent, registered growth in value added by 1.4 percent, 1.7 percent and 0.7 percent respectively in Q1 2013/14.
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1.4. Taxes on products and subsidies Value added for taxes on products and subsidies for Q1 2013/14 grew by 1.8 percent from shs. 669 Bn in Q4 2012/13 to shs. 681 Bn in Q1 2013/14. VAT reduced as was the case with excise duty during the quarter although this was offset by the strong growth of revenue from customs duty.
1.5. Data revisions Revisions for previous quarters (Q3 and Q4 2012/13) were done. In addition, data was not obtained for railway transport, phone talk time and visitors to national parks warranting use of plausible estimates were made. Data updates of these activities will be done during compilation of Q2 2013/14 estimates.
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