Next Five Years for Education Challenges & Policy Response Pawan Agarwal 13th Neemrana Conference, 16-18 December 2011
Outline
2
1.
Progress in Education
2.
Challenges of Schooling
3.
Higher Education Growth
4.
Conceptual Framework for HE Growth
5.
Higher Education – Puzzle
6.
Strategy to Manage Expansion
Enrolments – Various Levels in terms of Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) Growth 2001-2009 120
India Versus China
2001 2009
120
1 1 4 .4
111.4
100
India China
9 6 .3
113.0
100 92.0
7 6 .3
6 0 .2
60
GER – in percent
GER – in percent
80
5 9 .4
5 4 .0 44
40
60
78
76.3
59.8 54.0 48
47.0
40
3 4 .3
3 2 .0
80
34.3
26
25
20
15
20
15
7 .5
0
Pre-primary (- Primary (I-V) Upper Primary I) (VI-VIII)
Secondary (IX-X)
Upper Secondary (XI-XII)
Source: UNESCO Gobal Education Digest 2011 and Other Sources
Higher (XII +)
0
Pre-primary (- I)
Primary (I-V) Upper Primary (VI-VIII)
Secondary (IX-X)
Upper Secondary (XI-XII)
Higher (XII+)
3
Multiple Challenges at School Level Coverage
•Net Enrolment 16-18 % below gross enrolment •Uncovered areas and underserved communities
Attendance
•Attendance almost 12-14% lower than net enrolment •One-fifth of children from 6 to 17 years are out of school
Teachers
•Large vacancies and adverse teacher-pupil ratio •Unqualified teachers and teacher absenteeism
Quality
• Poor learning outcomes - 47% of children in grade 5 unable to read even a grade 2 level text in 2009 in rural India (ASER 2010)
Progression
•High drop outs - Mean year of schooling merely 4.2 years •Sharp decline at upper primary and upper secondary levels
Private growth
•Unfair practices – regulatory challenge •Equity problem – bias against girls and lower castes
Response – Universal coverage with better quality of schooling Sarva Siksha Abhiyan and Madhyamik Siksha Abhiyan 4
Growth of Institutions & Enrolment 40,000
25,000 35,000
35,000
16,000 25,000 13,000 20,000 10,000 15,000 7,000 10,406 10,000 7,073 5,000
4,000 5,932
3,359 605
1,000
1,864
0
-2,000 1950-51
1960-61
1970-71
1980-81
1990-91
2000-01
2010-01
* 1980-81 figures include institutions and enrolment in post-matric courses Source: Statistics of Higher and Technical Education, 2011, Ministry of HRD
Enrolment ('000)
19,000
30,000
Number of Institutions
22,000
Growth (2000-2010) Number of universities and colleges 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 Universities and colleges - Govt Engineering Colleges Pvt Medical colleges - Govt
2010 Universities and Colleges - Pvt Management Institutions - Govt Medical Colleges - Pvt
Engineering Colleges - Govt Managemnt Institutions - Pvt
Growth of Technical Institutions 1137 1114 1081
1228 1198 1021
854
1095
665
1003
Management
1132
2262
2385
1940
Pharmacy MCA
1169
1017
1523
1149 2972
3222
3393
2388
Engineering
1511
2006-07
Source: AICTE
1668
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
India has seen private sector-led growth over the past years This trend is likely to continue.....
• Dramatic expansion both institutions and enrolment over past 10 years
• Growth mostly in private institutions mainly in engineering & management
• Bulk of the enrolment continues to be in General stream
• For further higher education growth, expansion of secondary schooling is needed
8
Enrolment (GER)
Forms and phases of higher education in ‘Modern Societies’ Universal Over 50% Mass 16-50% Elite 0-15%
• Great diversity with no • Comprehensive with more
common standards • Boundaries and sequences break down, distinction between learning and life breaks down
diverse standards • Homogeneous with high and • Modular, flexible and semistructured sequence of common standards • Highly structured in terms of courses academic and professional Changing nature of content and institutions conceptions of knowledge
Purpose
• Shaping the mind and character of ruling class, a preparation for elite roles
Source: Martin Trow, 2006
• Transmission of skills and preparation of a broader range of technical and economic elite roles
• Adaptation of the whole population to rapid social and technological changes
Expanding higher education needs diversity Students are increasingly diverse
Employer demand for skills
Are changing rapidly, diversifying and unpredictable With private sector employers looking for more different skills and competencies
In interest Massification needs diversification differentiation
Not good enough to just have ‘degrees’
Source: .Adpated from Sachi Hatakenaka (CPR Higher Education Dialogue, 2011) 10
In learning style and capacity In socio-economic backgrounds In secondary school preparation
Puzzle - Pieces Not Fitting Together
Rising unemployment of graduates despite skill shortages Level of unemployment / underemployment rises with level of education
>1 million applicants with many graduates and PGs for 4013 peon posts in West Bengal
Huge unmet demand for higher education
11
Very High Graduate Unemployment Rates
Industry not finding skilled people
Raise GER in higher education to 30% by 2020
Graduate Unemploy ment Rate 25%
2.5 million White-collar jobs against 6.8 million graduates every year
Cancel courses with less than 60% graduates failing to find work
Aspiration as ‘Growth Driver’ India
Advanced nations
Differentiated System of Higher Education
Multidisciplinary Research Universities
Teaching focussed institutions
•To help create knowledge relevant for India •To establish research excellence •Wide range of options within •Professional/vocational/academic/cultural •Specialization opportunities after entrance •With energetic career service •Good for inclusiveness
Short-cycle vocational education coupled with remedial academic education
Private sector-led growth But unlikely to be good enough for -
Usually good enough for quantity , so long as the public remains confident about education quality (?) Balance and Manage Private Growth
Quality Fees are usually not enough quality enhancing inputs e.g. research, staff training, curriculum development, laboratories and libraries Diversity Public institutions cannot change and private institutions tend to ‘replicate’ models of success Equity Fee-based expansion is difficult for students from poorer families
Strategic Manage Expansion Robust Higher Education aligned to Aspirations and Economy
Institutional growth Enable ‘quality leading innovating’ institutions to emerge in each of diverse spheres Ensure proper governance structure
Accreditation and Public Information to support student choice to provide better incentives for institutions to improve
Funding key areas •Where private investments is unlikely (like research) •Access for the poor (Vocational/ teacher education) •Student finance – scholarships/loans
Appropriate Institutional Structure Enabling Policy Environment
THANK YOU 16
