Future prospects for Spain’s population: The role of INE’s population projections Sixto Muriel de la Riva Deputy Director of Population Statistics National Statistics Institute
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
What does INE tell about the future of Spain population?
We go down Spain will lose 5 millions of inhabitants in the next 40 years. Older than 64 will be 37% of the total population.
Spain faces a perfect demographic storm: emigration, ageing and low fertility. Since 2018 there will be more deaths than births
ABC, 20th November 2012
El País, 20th November 2012
Spain loses population for first time in 40 years Spain will lose population this year and will decrease more than 1 millionThe till 2022 evolution of population will become the Cinco Días, 20th November funding 2012 of the welfare system unsustainable Expansion, 20th November 2012 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
What is a population projection?
9 A population projection is NOT a forecast. 9 A population projection is an statistical simulation of the future population, based on several hypothesis about the future demographic evolution. 9 Purpose of INE’s population projection for Spain: showing where the present population structure and the recent demographic trends would lead us in the coming future.
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
So, INE’s population projection for Spain are…
9 Objective: simulation of the future consequences of the current population pyramid and demographic behaviours. 9 Useful: warning of possible future scenarios and risks. 9 Relevant: guaranteed by a continuous updating.
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
Last ten years trends in fertility rates by age are extrapolated to the future Projection of fertility rates Ages 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 120 100 80
Projected fertility indicators
60
1,6
40
1,5
20
1,4
31,40
31,00 30,80
1,3
MAC
TFR
31,20
30,60
1,2
30,40
20 02 20 05 20 08 20 11 20 14 20 17 20 20 20 23 20 26 20 29 20 32 20 35 20 38 20 41 20 44 20 47 20 50
0
31,60
1,1
30,20
1,0
30,00
20 02 20 05 20 08 20 11 20 14 20 17 20 20 20 23 20 26 20 29 20 32 20 35 20 38 20 41 20 44 20 47 20 50
Year
20
25
30
Total Fertility Rate
35 Mean Age40 45 at Childbearing
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
Last ten years trend in mortality risks by sex and age are extrapolated to the future Projection of mortality risks by age Males
0,1000 0,0100 0,0010 0,0001 0,0000 2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1,0000
Current migration rates by sex and age are applied to the future population
-0 05 4 -0 10 9 -1 15 4 -1 20 9 -2 25 4 -2 30 9 -3 35 4 -3 40 9 -4 45 4 -4 50 9 -5 55 4 -5 60 9 -6 65 4 -6 70 9 -7 75 4 -7 80 9 -8 85 4 -8 90 9 -9 95 4 M -9 ás 9 de 99
0,9 0,035 0,8 0,7 0,03 0,6 0,025 0,5 0,4 0,02 0,3 0,2 0,015 0,1 0,01 0
Projected immigration rates by age group world region Projected emigration rates sexand and age Males
0
Age groups
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 10 0
00
0,005
EU
Rest of Europe
Africa North America Age Central America and Caribbean South America Males Females Asia Oceania
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
Spain would have started a long period of population decrease Evolution of the Spain's population 2,00 47.500.000
42.500.000 1,00
(%)
40.000.000 37.500.000
0,50
35.000.000 0,00 32.500.000 30.000.000 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051
-0,50
Relative population growth
Total population
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
Inhabitants
45.000.000
1,50
The ageing process would be joined to the loss of population Spain's population pyramid 100+ 95
Females
Males
90 85 80 75
2052
70 65 60
2042
55 50
2032
45 40 35
2022
30 25
2012
20 15 10 5 0 100
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Males+f emales=10000
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
The dependency rate would reach almost 100% in forty years Dependency rates 120,00 100,00
Dependency rates
60,00
Year 2012 20,00 2022 0,00 2032 2042 2052 40,00
Older than 64
Younger than 16
Total
26,14
24,25
50,39
33,30
24,87
58,17
20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 20 22 20 24 20 26 20 28 20 30 20 32 20 34 20 36 20 38 20 40 20 42 20 44 20 46 20 48 20 50 20 52
%
80,00
45,23
22,56
62,19
24,37
73,00
Total
26,54
67,79
Year Younger than 16
86,56 99,54
Older than 64
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
What is behind these results?
1º. A long cycle of descending number of births is expected. 2º. Life expectancy will keep a positive trend, beyond random fluctuation. 3º. An extension of the present migration intentions.
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
1º. 2009 opened a expected long cycle of descending evolution of births Natural growth of the Spain population 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 -100.000
Births
Deaths
Natural balance
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
-300.000
2002
-200.000
The decrease of births is the long term consequence of past fertility crisis Females between 15 and 49 years old 12000000 11500000 11000000 10500000 10000000 9500000 9000000 8500000
Year 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
8000000
The decrease of births is the long term consequence of past fertility crisis Annual variation 15 an years Annual variation rate of females between 15 anrate 49 yearsof oldfemales between Annual variation rate of49 females between old 15 an 49 years old Foreign women Spanish women 2 30
0 -0,2 -0,4 -0,6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1,5 25
1
20 15
0,5
-0,8
10
0 -1
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-1,2-0,5 0
-1,4 -1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Año
Year
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
2º. Life expectancy increases in 1 year every 4-5 years Life expectancy at birth 95
90
85
80
75
70 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047 2051
Males Females 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
3º. These results are based on the present migrations trends Annual external migration flows 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000
20 1 20 0 1 20 2 1 20 4 16 20 18 20 20 20 22 20 24 20 26 20 28 20 30 20 3 20 2 3 20 4 3 20 6 3 20 8 4 20 0 4 20 2 4 20 4 4 20 6 4 20 8 50
0
Immigrations
Emigrations
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
Two final remarks:
9 Robustness of ageing: the result of a population projection depends on the hypothesis it is based on. However, a future scenario of ageing seems to be very robust for modern societies.
9 Ageing indicators should be analized with a wide perspective: past evolution of ageing indicators might give us a new vision of the ageing problem.
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
Different projections with quite similar results in terms of ageing for Spain Percentage of population older than 64 45,00 40,00 35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
PPLP 2012-2052 (INE) EUROPOP 2010 (EUROSTAT) WORLD POPULATION PROSPECT 2010 (NNUU) 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
2050
Dependency rate would reach 60% in 2025.But… it was higher 40 years ago¡ Dependency rates rates of of Spain population Dependency population
120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20
1199 77 1199 55 77 1199 88 88 1199 11 88 1199 44 88 1199 77 99 1199 00 99 1199 33 99 1199 66 99 2200 99 00 2200 22 00 2200 55 00 2200 88 11 2200 11 11 2200 44 11 220 77 022 220 00 022 220 33 02 220 266 022 220 99 03 220 322 03 220 355 033 220 88 044 220 11 044 220 44 044 220 77 055 00
00
Año Año Younger than than 16 16 Older Younger Olderthan than64 64 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
Conclusions 9 Future demographic prospects for Spain: • Descending cycle of births, with origin in past fertility crisis. • Population in descending trend for a long period. • The ratio non workers/workers might be 1 to 1 in 40 years. 9 The ageing process have strong structural components. 9 High dependency rates are not a newness, but they have a different composition now. 9 …and finally, this is only one of the edge of a multi-face issue¡ 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
Thanks a lot for your attention Sixto Muriel de la Riva Deputy Director of Population Statistics National Statistics Institute of Spain
[email protected]
9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013
