Mozambique at the start of a demographic dividend Gilberto M. Norte and Cassiano Chipembe Instituto Nacional de Estatística Mozambique
Outline • Objectives • Demographic and Socioeconomic background • The economic lifecycle • Demographic Dividend • Conclusions
Objectives • To describe the economic lifecycle and the generation of first demographic dividend; • To discuss the effect of the demographic dividend in the Mozambican economy.
Demographic and Socioeconomic background • Demography (2013) Total population of 24,4 million Life expectancy at birth: 51 (M) / 55 (F) Pop. growth rate: 2,7% annual Infant mortality: 64 (DHS2011) Fertility: 5,4 children per woman Pop. under 15 yrs: 45% Pop. aged 65 yrs+: 3%
Demographic and Socioeconomic background • Socioeconomic • GDP growth rate: 7% • Poverty rate: 55% • Unemployment rate: 23% (15-64 yrs) • Unemployment rate: 47% (15-19 yrs) • Unemployment rate: 23% (20-24 yrs)
Age structure Population Distribuition. Mozambique, 1950- 2050 18.0 16.0 14.0
Percent
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0-4
5 - 9' 10 -14' 15-19 20 - 24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 1950
2010
2050
Population Age Structure, Mozambique, 1950-2050 70 60
40 30 20 10
0-19
20-64
65+
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
0
1950
Percent
50
• Lifecycle Deficit and its components
Labour Income. Mozambique and Africa 1.2
mean YL age 30-49
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91
Mozambique 2008
African average
Public consumption.Mozambique, 2008 0.2
0.1
mean YL ages 30-49
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91
CGE
CGH
CGX
CG
Education for young people; health distributed equitativelly
Private consumption. Mozambique, 2008 0.8 0.7
mean YL ages 30-49
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91
CFE
CFH
CFX
Low private expenditures on education and health; Declining Consumption from 30s
Consumption. Mozambique and Africa 1.0
mean YL ages 30-49
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91
C
African average
Rapid declining of C comparing with rest of Africa countries
Lifecycle deficit (per capita). Mozambique 2008 1.2 1.0
mean YL age 30-49
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
YL
C
LCD
Surplus from 28 to 60 (32 years) Older people work after 70 years
Billion Mozambican meticais
Lifecycle deficit (aggregate). Mozambique, 2008 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
consumption Labour income
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90+
age
- Very high consumption for the young people as consequence of the demographic structure. - Surplus spent on children
National transfers account summary (agreggate values). Mozambique 2008 Billion Meticais LCD Consumption public consumption private consumption less: Labour income Population (%)
all ages 66,572 229,125 36,613 192,513 162,553 100
0 ‐ 19 79,415 99,558 23,353 76,206 20,143 56,4
20 ‐ 64 ‐16,841 123,725 12,534 111,190 140,565 40,6
65 ‐ + 3,997 5,842 0,725 5,117 1,845 3,0
First demographic dividend Annual rate of growth of the support ratio (percent)
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
-0.1 Year -0.2
Low fertility
Medium fertility
High fertility
- Support ratio increases rapidly from 2008-2030; -By 2030, economy will be growing nearly 0.5% faster each annually due to favorable changes in population age structure. - Rapid decline in fertility means greater DD
Human capital spending (% average annual labor income age 30–49 in each country)
Tradeoff between human-capital spending and fertility 600
Africa South, Southeast Asia
500
East Asia Europe, Australia, United States
400
Latin America, Caribbean
300
200
100
0 0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Total fertility rate (children per woman)
5.0
6.0
Conclusion • During the lifecycle, there is surplus of individuals (28 to 60 years) which is mainly spent on children. • Older people remain working after 70 years; • Mozambique is enjoying the first dividend since 2008. A demographic dividend frees up resources that can be invested in the health and education of children.
Recommendations • Investment in Family planning, education and sexual and reproductive health for youth is necessary to fertility decline and youth empowerment. • Policies and programs need to help individuals accumulate assets that reduce their dependence on families and taxpayers; • Although they are only 5% of the population, public social protection for elderly must be strengthened;
Challenges and next steps • To complete the estimates by July • Revise data on CFX • To conduct a dissemination workshop • To participate actively in the national workshop on FP and population issues to share the NTA results.
