How can Obama get Washington to act? Charles Noble Professor of Political Science Chair, Department of Political Science California State University, Long Beach
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Having fun on the morning of the inauguration
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The Senate and the House respond to Obama – standing and seated
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What he’s already accomplished (1) Gotten passed ` `
The Economic Stimulus: $787 billion The Budget Resolution: $3.6 trillion
Arranged ` `
The financial reform program The bailouts of Chrysler and GM
Nominated `
Judge Sonya Sotomayor to the Supreme Court
Signed laws that ` ` ` `
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Require equal pay for equal work Expand health care for uninsured children Give the FDA authority to regulated tobacco products Better protect consumers from credit card companies
What he’s already done (2) Ordered ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `
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A change in the approach to Iraq and Afghanistan The closing of Guantanamo Bay The end of the use of torture in interrogations Lifting the ban on federal funding for stem cell research The end of the ban on travel to Cuba for family members The end of the ban on federal funding for international family planning agencies that provide or advise on abortion services. New rules increasing automobile efficiency The EPA to allow states to impose stricter carbon emission rules than those issued by the federal government.
The plan Introduction Obama’s Vision The Obstacle Course
1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3.
4. 5.
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Institutions Culture Politics
Obama’s Strategy Obama in historical : un « reconstructionist » president ?
Obama’s vision Reduce the dependence of the US economy on consumerism and the world economy ` Reduce the role of foreign capital ` Increase the role of savings and investment ` Redistribute income and redirect the benefits of economic growth to the middle class ` Emphasize the role of government (without replacing the market as the preferred way to allocate resources) ` Depend less on and regulate more the financial sector ` 7 Depend more on US allies in foreign policy `
The four pillars of Obama’s domestic policy `
Health care ` Increase coverage ` Reduce costs
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Education ` Increase access to college ` Better prepare workers for new careers
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Infrastructure ` Invest in new technologies of communication and transportation
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Energy ` Reduce pollution ` Invest in new technology
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The obstacle course ¾ The
institutional system ¾ The political culture ¾ Political power relations
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The institutional system (checks and balances ¾ Strong
bicameralism ¾ Legislative procedures ¾ ¾ ¾
The filibuster The role of Congressional committees The influence of committee chairs
¾ An
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independent Supreme Court
Sovereignty …
¾ Isn’t ` `
¾ Is
concentrated in an institution or a leader
The “people” are sovereign Each institution exercises it’s own share of sovereignty
divided and shared ¾ Remains uncertain and ambiguous
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Critics claim that the American political system… ` ` ` ` `
Avoids difficult choices Puts local interests ahead of national ones Is dominated by lobbies Responds only when the country is in crisis Acts only when a strong and popular president demands it
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American political culture ` ` ` `
Political power is suspect Fear of an active government Suspicion of the federal government Challenge to the legitimacy of the state itself
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The power of the president depends on ` ` ` ` `
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The size of the winning margin Strong majorities in both chambers. The lack of divisions within the president’s own party The president’s ability to reward friends and punish enemies The support of public opinion
Obama’s margin of victory Votes Obama McCain
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69.5m 60.0m
% 52.9% 45.7%
Electors 365 173
Participation rates, 1948-2008
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The party composition of the House
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The party composition of the Senate
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The partisan composition of the House, including the Blue Dog Coalition
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The partisan composition of the Senate, including Democratic “moderates”
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The « Moderate Senate Democrats Working Group » by region # in the coalition Sens. the region South Midwest Northeast Mountain West
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6 4 3 2
Total Dem From
9 15 17 7
Who benefits from the stimulus package? ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `
Middle class taxpayers Public sector workers Students with college loans Teachers Bankers and financiers Construction workers Scientists Corporations that invest in green energy Nearly every Congressional district 22
Support for the parties
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The rise of independents
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The recent increase in independents January 2009 Democratic Republican Independents
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39% 26% 30%
May 2009
33% 22% 39%
After allocating independents to the party they usually vote for 2008 Democratic Republican Independents
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51% 37% 12%
The most important issue
2004 Values Afghanistan and Iraq Economy and Jobs
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27% 22% 21%
2009 10% 4% 50%
Public opinion supports Obama
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Ideology
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Spend more on the poor, even if the government has to go further into debt? % agree Democrats Independents Republicans
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65 43 29
Guarantee food and shelter for everyone? % agree Democrats Independents Republicans
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79 58 46
Republicans oppose everything
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John Boehner is not happy
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Sen. Gregg warns about the debt
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Successful presidents… ` ` `
Prepare public opinion for big things et reestablish confidence in the state and politics Build a large coalition while paying attention to their own party Push through policies that deal with problems that the majority see as important
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The important presidents ` ` ` ` `
Woodrow Wilson and the « New Freedom » Theodore Roosevelt and the « New Nationalism » Franklin Roosevelt and the « New Deal » Lyndon Johnson and the « The Great Society » Ronald Reagan and the « Reagan Revolution »
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Obama’s strategy as of now ` ` ` ` ` ` `
Tight control of the Democratic Party campaign apparatus Control the broad outlines of the policy agenda from the White House Allow Democratic leaders in the House and Senate to determine the details of bills Bipartisan gestures Include and negotiate with corporate interests in drawing up reforms that affect them Use the grassroots campaign apparatus to mobilize support for policy initiatives Settle for first steps and small openings rather than demand big changes at once 37