March 2015
Lakson Outlook Economic and Markets Review FMR Lakson Money Market Fund FMR Lakson Income Fund FMR Lakson Equity Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Markets Information
Rated AM3+ by PACRA
Business Principles
Our investors' interests always come first. We believe that if we serve our clients well, our own success will follow. Integrity and honesty are at the heart of our business. We expect our people to maintain high ethical standards. Our commitment to our clients, integrity, professional excellence, entrepreneurial spirit and teamwork will set us apart. Our firm shares bonuses with all employees - not just top management, but also those who perform standard administrative and clerical duties. Our goal is to provide superior returns to our shareholders. Profitability is critical to achieving superior returns, building our capital, and attracting and keeping the best people. Our business is highly competitive and we will aggressively seek to expand our client relationships. However, we are always fair competitors and never denigrate other firms.
Table of contents Economic & Markets Review
04 - 05
Lakson Money Market Fund
06
Lakson Income Fund
07
Lakson Equity Fund
08
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
09
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
10 - 11
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
12
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison
13 - 15
Markets Information
16 - 17
03
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Economic & Markets Review - Pakistan Economic Review CPI inflation continued on its downward trajectory and clocked in at an 11-year low of 2.5% YoY in Mar'15. Low inflation during the month was primarily attributed to i) lower transport inflation (-10.7% YoY) led by a decline in fuel prices and (2) benign food inflation at 0.5% YoY as prices of perishable food items declined by 2.3% YoY. On a sequential basis, CPI inflation edged up by 0.2% on the back of a seasonal uptick of 5% in the prices of fresh fruits and vegetables, Core Non-Food-Non-Energy (NFNE) inflation declined to 5.9% YoY compared to 6.2% YoY during the preceding month. 9MFY15 average inflation has moderated to 5.2% YoY, compared to 8.6% over the corresponding period of last year. In line with easing inflation, the State Bank of Pakistan ("SBP") in its fourth monetary policy of the current fiscal year reduced the discount rate by 50 bps to 8.0%. The shift towards expansionary policy by the central bank came in the backdrop of substantial drop in crude oil prices along with a positive external account outlook. SBP has further toned down its inflation forecast for FY15 and now expects CPI to range between 4.0% to 5.0%. On the fiscal side, tax collection continued to lag with the FBR collecting only PKR 230 billion for the month, registering a negligible growth of 7.4% against the required rate of 20%+. Provisional tax collection for the period 9MFY15 amounted to PKR 1.755 trillion, which was 11.4% higher compared to the corresponding period of last year. The periodic results indicate that the government may not be able to achieve the tax target of PKR 2.691 trillion. On the external front, the current account posted a surplus of USD 877 million compared to a deficit of USD 74 million in Jan'15, taking the cumulative deficit for 8MFY15 to USD 1.61 billion. Trade deficit declined by 2.1% MoM to USD 915 million, after tumbling crude oil prices reduced imports by 5.6% to USD 2.78 billion during the month. The government received USD ~750 million on account of coalition support funds. The foreign exchange reserves of the country remained flat at USD 16.2 billion (as of 27th March 2015). Meanwhile, PKR marginally declined by 0.1% against greenback to close at 101.9. Fixed Income Review In March, the central bank continued with its monetary easing, cutting the discount rate by a further 50 to 8.0% bps. There were two T-bills auctions in which a total amount of PKR 344.5 billion was raised. Continuing with the previous month's trend, investors showed more interest in shorter tenors with the 3 yr PIB receiving the highest bid amounting to PKR 40 billion. 5-year PIBs saw bids of PKR 33 billion and 10-year PIBs bids of PKR 22 billion. Total realized amount for all tenors was approximately PKR 98 billion against a target of PKR 50 billion. On the economic front, Pakistan's foreign exchange position is likely to improve as reserves will increase due to the upcoming sale of the government's stake in HBL. Moreover, the recent upgrading of Pakistan's bonds by Moody's will increase interest in Pakistan's debt. Equity Market Review KSE 100 saw heavy losses in March '15 with the index down 10.1% closing at 30,233. Average volume dropped from 151 million to 116 million, a decline of 23%. Major reason for decline in KSE 100 was negative news floating in the market. Regulatory action against a few brokerage firms created panic amongst investors. Moreover, foreign selling also made things worse as foreign funds contributed PKR 7.14 billion to the net outflow. The collapse of international fund Everest Capital led to the sale of its holdings in Pakistan and this led to a significant decline in the stock market. Developments on the political front also sent jitters as a major party's headquarter was raided. Similarly, the Yemen-Saudi Arabia war created uncertainty for regional stability. Among the worst performing sectors was the pharmaceutical sector which saw a massive decline of 18% primarily due to the negative impact of the new pricing policy. Banks saw a decline of 13% as investors expected the cut in the discount rate to reduce banking spreads. Announcement of a hike in gas prices kept the cement sector under pressure during the month. Utilities and consumer staples performance was better than other sectors but both sectors were still in the red zone with a decline of 2% and 6% respectively. Going forward, positive developments such as an upgrade in rating of Pakistan's sovereign bonds by Moody's, positive feedback from Asian Development Bank and further monetary easing are likely to improve the stock market's performance.
Yield Curve
12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 1W
2M
6M
2Y
5Y
8Y
28-Feb-15
15Y
31-Mar-15
USD/PKR vs. Forex Reserves 103.0
18.0
Forex Res. (USD bn.) - RHS USD/PKR
17.0
102.0
16.0 101.0
15.0
100.0
14.0
1-Mar
8-Mar
15-Mar
22-Mar
29-Mar
Market Rates 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2-Mar
11-Mar
6M KIBOR
20-Mar
O/N Repo Rate
6M T-Bill
CPI clocked in at an 11year low of 2.5% YoY in March '15.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
04
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Economic & Markets Review - International Developed Markets Review Developed markets showed a downtrend in March with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.8%, closing the first quarter of the year at +1.82%. The month's decline resulted mainly from lagging US and UK markets, while Germany and Japan closed on a positive note. The possibility of interest rate increases continued to drive market sentiment in the US as the S&P 500 Index fell up to 3% in the first half of the month before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Stronger than expected employment figures for February also supported the case of monetary tightening to start as early as June. Subsequently, S&P 500 reacted positively to the result of the Fed policy meeting, reversing part of its decline to close at -1.7%. The central bank lowered its forecast for growth and inflation in the US for 2015 and evinced a more cautious stance towards interest rates as manufacturing output posted a decline for a third consecutive month. On the other hand, German markets advanced by 5% buoyed by encouraging ECB growth forecasts which were raised to 1.5% for 2015, while the inflation outlook also improved. Optimism over the ECBs asset repurchase program continued to over shadow fears of a worsening Greek crisis. UK equities rallied to record levels mid-month over the announcement of the budget. However, worries over deflation dampened sentiments as CPI hit 0.0%. FTSE 100 posted a decline of 2.5% for the month as market participants expect the UK to follow the eurozone into deflation. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei rose 2.2% in the month, boosted by government confidence in equities spurring reallocation of pension fund assets from debt towards stocks. Speculation over the Bank of Japan continuing its quantitative easing program continued to influence the market. However, the last week of the month saw the index shedding its 5% MTD rally to 2.2% as inflation slowed to 0.0% in February over January's reading of 0.2%.
Performance of Equities & Commodities 140%
MSCI EM Index
Commodities Review Commodities witnessed a volatile month with most categories closing in negative territory at month end except for copper. Copper remained under pressure as it rose slightly from its 5 year low hit earlier this year. Expectations of economic stimulus in the world's top metal consumer, China, provided some support to copper prices this month which closed up 1.8%. Among precious metals, gold continued to slump, declining by 2.5% as the dollar grew stronger reducing the attractiveness of the commodity. After the Fed's policy meeting, gold recovered part of its 5% MTD losses. Solidifying possibilities of Greece's exit from Eurozone helped keep prices of gold steady in the last week of the month. Prices of grains remained highly volatile with wheat futures swinging by up to 10% during the month. Improving weather conditions provided support to the prices, however possibility of extension in tax on Russian exports of wheat along with the weakening Euro pulled the commodity down to close at -0.24% at the end of the month. Supply glut in corn along with 9% increase in US stockpiles kept prices in check, which closed 4.3% down. Furthermore, oil prices added to their FYTD decline with WTI falling by 8.7% and Brent by 12.7%. With the launch of airstrikes on Yemen by Saudi Arabia oil prices rose in the third week of the month as Yemen sits close to a shipping chokepoint for Saudi Arabia's oil. Subsequently, however, expectation of Iranian sanctions being lifted overshadowed concerns over any supply disruptions.
DB Commodity Index
120%
100%
80%
60% Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
24 20 16 12 8 4 -
DM
US
UK
Japan Canada EM
Brazil Russia India China
P/E Multiple
The possibility of interest rate increases in the US depressed market sentiment and led to a 1.7% decline in the S&P500.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
05
Mar-15
Valuations of International Markets
Emerging Markets Review Emerging market stocks retreated 1.6% during March taking the cumulative losses for 9MFY15 to 7.3%. Nevertheless, the index heavyweight China provided major support to the index, with the SHSN300 rallying by 13.4%. Chinese equities were buoyed by comments from premier Li Keqiang that policymakers would introduce further measures to boost the Chinese economy if growth falls below the government's 7% target. Hopes for further stimulus measures were raised after data highlighted significant weakness in China's property market-(new home prices fell 5.7% in February from a year earlier, marking the fastest decline on record). The People's Bank of China cut interest rates for a second time in three months to try to support the economy. Elsewhere in emerging markets, Russia's RTS (-7.5%) was among the most effected as oil prices fell back after recent gains, putting further pressure on the Rouble. Sentiment was also hit by an announcement from the country's economy minister stating that Russia's economy contracted by 1.5% in the first two months of 2015. India's Sensex fell 4.8%, hit by allegations of a coal scam in the metals industry. Turkey's ISE 100 also struggled, down 3.9%, as worries over political meddling in the country's monetary policy and a weak Lira weighed on sentiment. The Lira fell towards a record low against the US dollar despite intervention from Turkey's central bank in the currency markets, as President Tayyip Erdogan demanded that policymakers cut interest rates ahead of elections in June.
MSCI World Index
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Lakson Money Market Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Money Market Fund is to provide stable and competitive returns in line with the money markets, exhibiting low volatility consistent with capital preservation by constructing a liquid portfolio of low risk short term investments. Performance Review The Lakson Money Market Fund generated an annualized return of 7.46% against the benchmark return of 7.41%. The Fund outpeformed the benchmark by 5bps. Allocation towards placements with banks & DFIs was increased to 65% as attractive rates were being offered at the quarter end. The remainder was used to build a liquid and sovereign rated T bill portfolio with a WAM of 136 days. Credit quality of the Fund remained high with over 80% of assets allocated to instruments rated AA+ and above. The SBP has cut the DR by 200bps since Nov-14 and further cuts are expected in the next MPS in May-15. Keeping in view these projections the Fund WAM has been maintained steady at 70 days as compared to 68 days last month. The weight of fixed placements is expected to decline by next month as focus shifts towards capital gains on MTM instruments prior to another potential rate cut. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2015 the LMMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 58.1 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LMMF would be higher by PKR 1.02. If the LMMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY15, the year to date annualized return of the LMMF for FY15 would be higher by 0.18%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of Dec 31, 2014) of the LMMF.
Asset Allocation
Credit Split
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2015) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee
Open-End Money Market Fund 6,049 106.6002 Previous Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of Gross Earnings subject to a minimum of 1.00% and maximum of 1.25% of the average annual net assets Front End Load None Back End Load None Launch Date November 13, 2009 Benchmark 50% Average 3M T-bills yield + 50% Average 3M TDR rate of minimum AA rated banks. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 4:00 PM Fund Rating 'AA' by PACRA (5.3.2014) Risk Profile Low Risk Asset Manager Rating AM3+ by PACRA (26.6.2014)
Performance
Cash 1%
AA 16% Govt Sec 34%
T-Bills 34% Placements with Banks & DFIs 65%
AA+ 34% AAA 16%
Asset Allocation Instruments Placements with Banks & DFIs PIBs T Bills Cash Others including receivables
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 % of Total Assets 73% 59% 65% 0% 4% 0% 25% 36% 34% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0%
WAM* Days 36 0 136 0
Morningstar FY15 - YTD March-15 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY15 - YTD
LMMF 8.76% 7.72% 8.03% 8.79% 8.79% 8.73% 8.79%
Benchmark 8.98% 7.67% 7.80% 8.45% 8.85% 9.05% 8.45%
Simple Annualized FY15 - YTD March-15 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY15 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LMMF 8.67% 7.46% 7.77% 8.51% 8.60% 8.73% 8.51% 9.39% 11.83% 12.22%
Benchmark 8.88% 7.41% 7.56% 8.19% 8.66% 9.05% 8.19% 9.87% 12.24% 12.57%
Please note that the benchmark of the fund was changed in February 2014. Benchmark calculation of tenors which include months prior to February 2014 incorporate the old benchmark as well.
LMMF vs. Benchmark 124
* Weighted Average Maturity
121 118
Non Compliant Investments
115 112
Name of Non - Compliant Type of Investment Instrument
Pak Brunei Investment Co. Pak Oman Investment Co.
COI COI
Value of Total Value of % of Net % of Total Investment Provisioning Investment Assets Assets before Held after Provisioning Provisioning 600,000,000 600,000,000
-
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2015 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Nil. Nil. 70 Days
600,000,000 10.56% 600,000,000 10.56%
10.39% 10.39%
109 106 103 100 Jun-12
Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13
Jun-13
Benchmark
Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
LMMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved. Tha Lakson Money Market Fund holds certain non-complaint investments. Before making any investment decision investors should review this document and the latest financial statements.
06
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Lakson Income Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Income Fund is to provide competitive total return through investment in a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities. Investments will be made in a variegated mix of short term, medium term and longer term maturities depending on the assessment by the Investment Team of interest rate trends and prospective returns.
Fund Facts
Performance Review During March 2015 the LIF generated an annualized return of 14.47% against the benchmark return of 10.76%. The LIF outpeformed the average benchmark by 371bps. Profit taking on in the money bond positions was taken prior to the MPS announcement which meant PIB exposure dropped to 55%. Allocation to shorter tenor T bills was increased to 24% and cash holdings were maintained significantly higher at 8%. As a result of this portfolio WAM dropped to 1,302 days. With the latest inflation reading recorded at 2.49% and FX reserves rising towards USD$17bn another round of monetary easing is expected in May-15. The Fund will therefore continue to maintain healthy exposure to longer term bonds in order to benefit from capital gains.
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2015) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark
WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2015 the LIF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 14.2 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LIF would be higher by PKR 0.84. If the LIF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY15, the year to date annualized return of the LIF for FY15 would be higher by 0.30%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of Dec 31, 2014) of the LIF.
Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Fund Rating Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
Asset Allocation Sukuk 2% TFCs 9%
Credit Split
Cash 8%
T Bill 24%
AA+ 0%
AA 3%
Performance
AA8% Unrated 0.27%
PIB 55% Govt 81%
TFCs/Sukuk Portfolio Name of the Issuer Bank Al Habib Limited IV Bank Al Falah Limited V PMCL VII Askari Bank Limited IV K-Electric Azm Sukuk III
Issue Date 30-Jun-11 20-Feb-13 18-Apr-12 23-Dec-11 24-Feb-14
Rating % of Total Assets AA 1.14% AA3.42% AA1.65% AA2.99% AA 2.22%
Placements with Banks/DFIs PIB T Bill TFC Sukuk MTS Cash Others including receivables
Jan-15
Feb-15
0% 51% 32% 11% 3% 1% 2% 1%
% of Total Assets 4% 61% 18% 9% 2% 0% 4% 1%
* Weighted Average Maturity
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2015 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Morningstar FY15 - YTD March-15 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY15 - YTD
LIF 14.91% 15.47% 13.61% 17.79% 19.12% 12.63% 17.79%
Benchmark 14.31% 11.30% 10.15% 14.96% 16.26% 12.47% 14.96%
Simple annualized FY15 - YTD March-15 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY15 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LIF 14.65% 14.47% 12.89% 16.71% 18.29% 12.63% 16.71% 11.69% 13.58% 13.97%
Benchmark 14.07% 10.76% 9.74% 14.19% 15.64% 12.47% 14.19% 11.13% 12.16% 12.08%
LIF vs. Benchmark 124 121 118 115
Asset Allocation Instruments
Open-End Income Fund 1,871 111.1853 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 1.50% 1.50% None November 13, 2009 Average of returns earned by the Income Funds in the industry Mon - Fri 4:00 PM 'A+' by PACRA (5.3.2014) Medium Risk AM3+ by PACRA (26.6.2014)
Nil. Nil. 1302 Days
Mar-15 0% 55% 24% 9% 2% 0% 8% 1%
WAM* Days 0 1862 210 1951 1426 53 1
112 109 106 103 100 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Benchmark
LIF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
07
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Lakson Equity Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Equity Fund is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing mainly in equity and related listed securities. Investments will be made in companies of substance, financial strength and demonstrably superior management skills with some exposure given to smaller capitalized value stocks. Performance Review LEF generated a MTD return of -9.88% (BM: -12.25%) and FYTD return of 13.12% (BM: -5.80%). The slide across all sectors caused the fund to report a negative return for the month. Mar'15 saw a reshuffle in the exposure whilst maintaining a strong presence in the market. Exposure was reduced in Chemicals and Electricity as gains were realized in specific stocks. Proceeds were reallocated to Oil & Gas and Commercial Banks, with a marginal increase in Cements to maintain over all sector exposure. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2015 the LEF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 15.6 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LEF would be higher by PKR 0.70. If the LEF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY15, the year to date return of the LEF for FY15 would be higher by 0.33%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of Dec 31, 2014) of the LEF.
Top 10 Holdings
Fund Facts
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2015) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
Open-End Equity Fund 2,674 119.2825 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co. 2.00% 3.00% None November 13, 2009 KSE-30 Index Mon-Fri 4:00 PM High Risk AM3+ by PACRA (26.6.2014)
Performance
LEF
KSE-30
13.12% -9.88% -12.99% -6.53% 8.33% 19.11% -6.53% 108.55% 151.22% 174.82%
-5.80% -12.25% -13.72% -7.41% -4.86% 0.32% -7.41% 58.76% 83.17% 101.13%
Asset Allocation 10.11% 8.10% 7.78% 6.67% 5.87% 5.06% 5.02% 4.73% 4.65% 4.31%
Cash 5% T-Bills Others 3% 5%
Equity 87%
Sectorwise Exposure Sectorwise Exposure
Feb-15
Mar-15
Chemicals Const. & Mat. Oil & Gas Electricity Commercial Banks Others
17.55% 19.56% 20.65% 13.59% 6.85% 8.02%
12.17% 18.82% 25.04% 10.09% 9.18% 12.15%
Others
Chemicals
Commercial Banks
Const. & Mat.
Electricity
200 150
Mar-15 87% 5% 5% 3%
100 50
Country Pakistan India Malaysia Dubai USA USA
LEF
Index KSE-100 BSE Sensex 30 FTSE KLCI DFM General DJIA S&P 500
* Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
1M Return -8.97% -4.78% 0.75% -8.17% -2.80% -2.34%
P/E 9.70 19.74 16.87 8.05 15.59 18.27
Div. Yield 5.29% 1.38% 3.10% 5.90% 2.29% 2.00%
KSE-100
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
Sep-13
Dec-13
Pakistan vs. Global Markets
Jun-13
0
Dec-12
Feb-15 86% 11% 2% 0%
Mar-13
Jan-15 79% 10% 5% 6%
Jun-12
Equities T-Bills Cash Others
LEF vs. Benchmark 300 250
Oil & Gas
Asset Allocation (% of Total Assets)
FY15 - YTD March-15 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY15 - YTD 3 YEAR 5 YEAR SINCE INCEPTION
Sep-12
Pak Petroleum Limited Lucky Cement Limited Oil & Gas Development Co Karachi Electric Limited Pak National Shipping Co Pak Oilfields Limited United Bank Limited Kohat Cement Limited Engro Fertilizer Limited Fauji Cement Limited
KSE-30
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2015 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
08
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and commodities. Performance Review During the month of March 2015 the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund generated an absolute return of 0.73% against the benchmark return of -0.58%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 1062 bps over FY15TD. With significant exposure to longer tenor MTM instruments like PIBs, the fund continues to benefit from the decline in yields. The outperformance of the Fund has been exaggerated because of the continued weakness in commodity prices which has dragged the benchmark down by 2.63% over the current fiscal year. Going forward, commodities exposure will be avoided until a definitive change in the demand/supply dynamic materializes. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2015 the LAAGCF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.2 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAGCF would be higher by PKR 0.63. If the LAAGCF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY15, the year to date return of the LAAGCF for FY15 would be higher by 0.16%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of Dec 31, 2014) of the LAAGCF.
Global Commodities (DB Balanced Commodity ETF) Commodity Gold Corn Sugar #11 Soybeans RBOB Gasoline Zinc Brent Crude Aluminium Heating Oil Copper - Grade A Light Crude Silver Natural Gas Wheat-Mineapolis Wht Wheat (Kansas Wheat)
Weight as of Mar-15 16.03 8.59 7.15 8.23 6.97 6.44 6.82 6.13 6.93 5.90 5.81 4.00 3.05 2.59 2.71
Sectorwise Exposure as of Energy Agriculture Base Metals Precious Metals
Asset Allocation Cash 23% T bills 47% PIBs 6% PIBs 31%
Sectorwise Exposure
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2015) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 206 106.6339 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAGCF is calculated Benchmark through a 30:70 combination of DBLC - OY Balanced Index and 6month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM3+ by PACRA (26.6.2014)
Fund Performance
Benchmark*
LAAGCF
FY15-YTD March-15 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY14-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
7.99% 0.73% 1.48% 3.36% 5.77% 9.35% 8.79% 18.66% NA 23.26%
-2.63% -0.58% 0.34% 0.18% -1.95% -0.88% -0.60% 10.78% NA 17.88%
* The new Benchmark is effective from September 10, 2013.
RBOB Gasoline 6.97
Mar-15 29.58% 29.55% 20.84% 20.03%
LAAGCF vs. Benchmark Gold 16.03
Soybeans 8.23
119 117 115 113 111
Sugar 7.15
109
Corn 8.59
107 105 103 101
Asset Allocation
T bills PIBs Global Commodities Cash
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2015 Non Performing Assets
Benchmark
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-12
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 % of Total Assets 46% 45% 47% 30% 30% 31% 0% 0% 0% 24% 24% 23%
Sep-12
Instruments
99
LAAGCF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
09
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and developed markets securities. Performance Review During the month of March 2015 the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund generated an absolute return of -0.02% against the benchmark return of -0.31%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 147 bps over FY15TD. With significant exposure to longer tenor MTM instruments like PIBs, the Fund continues to benefit from the decline in yields. Going forward, the Fund will maintain exposure in US equities as they provide the most favorable risk/return profile amongst Developed Market indices. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2015 the LAADMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 3.3 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAADMF would be higher by PKR 0.61. If the LAADMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY15, the year to date return of the LAADMF for FY15 would be higher by 0.12%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of Dec 31, 2014) of the LAADMF.
Developed Markets Equities Mar-15 % of ETF's Assets Apple Inc 14.64% Microsoft Corp 6.65% Google Inc.-Class C 3.67% Facebook 3.67% Amazon 3.55% Google Inc.-Class A 3.27% Intel Corp 2.94% Gilead Sciences 2.95% Cisco Systems 2.79% Comcast Corp 2.49%
Vanguard S&P 500
QQQ ETF
Apple Inc Exxon Mobil Corp Microsoft Corp Johnson & Johnson Berkshire Hathway Wells Fargo General Electric Procter & Gamble JP Morgan Chase Chevron Corp
% of ETF's Assets 4.02% 2.00% 1.93% 1.53% 1.44% 1.39% 1.38% 1.23% 1.22% 1.15%
Asset Allocation Cash 2% DM Equities 29%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2015) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 589 110.5015 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAGCF is calculated Benchmark through a 30:70 combination of DBLC - OY Balanced Index and 6month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM3+ by PACRA (26.6.2014)
Fund Performance T-Bills 45%
PIBs 24%
LAADMF Benchmark
FY15-YTD March-15 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY14-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
6.10% -0.02% 2.45% 2.98% 4.61% 9.16% 8.20% 31.5% NA 36.81%
4.63% -0.31% 2.26% 2.15% 2.85% 7.73% 6.62% 34.79% NA 47.14%
LAADMF vs. Benchmark
Country United States China United Kingdom Netherlands Singapore
Weight 95.88% 1.16% 1.18% 0.65% 0.64%
Sectors Technology Consumer Discretionary Telecommunication Consumer Staples Industrials
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2015 Non Performing Assets
Weight 60.51% 12.56% 3.45% 2.45% 1.62%
Benchmark
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Jun-12
MSCI World Index Composition (As of Mar-15)
Sep-13
T-Bills PIBs Developed Markets (DM) Equities Cash
Dec-12
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 % of Total Assets 44% 43% 45% 24% 24% 24% 29% 30% 29% 4% 4% 2%
Mar-13
Asset Allocation Instruments
Sep-12
137 135 133 131 129 127 125 123 121 119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99
LAADMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
10
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
PowerShares QQQ ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type QQQ US Equity DES and click on Allocations
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type VUSD LN Equity DES and click on Allocations
11
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and emerging market securities. Performance Review During the month of March 2015 the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund generated an absolute return of 0.38% against the benchmark return of -0.08%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 167 bps over FY15TD. With significant exposure to longer tenor MTM instruments like PIBs, the Fund continues to benefit from the decline in yields. Going forward, the Fund will avoid equity exposure in Emerging Market indices until the risk/return profile of such an investment becomes favorable. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2015 the LAAEMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 0.9 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAEMF would be higher by PKR 0.99. If the LAAEMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY15, the year to date return of the LAAEMF for FY15 would be higher by 0.03%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of Dec 31, 2014) of the LAAEMF.
Emerging Market Equities
As of Mar-15
Security
% of Assets 3.62%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd 2.88%
0.90%
American Movil
0.88%
PIBs 23%
Asset Allocation Instruments T-Bills PIBs Emerging Markets (EM) Equities Cash
LAAEMF vs. Benchmark
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 % of Total Assets 34% 34% 42% 23% 23% 23% 0% 0% 0% 43% 42% 35%
125 123 121 119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99
EEM Composition (As of Mar-15) Country China South Korea Taiwan Brazil South Africa
Weight 17.82% 14.80% 12.60% 7.51% 7.93%
Sectors Financials Semiconductors Telecommunications Oil & Gas Food
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2015 Non Performing Assets
Weight 15.78% 9.27% 7.93% 6.79% 3.34%
Benchmark
Dec-14
1.13%
Hon Hai Precision Industry
2.52% -0.08% 1.33% 2.06% 1.29% 5.84% 4.74% 20.47% NA 32.45%
Mar-15
Bank of China
4.19% 0.38% 0.98% 2.18% 3.75% 7.01% 5.14% 19.51% NA 24.20%
Jun-14
1.34%
LAAEMF Benchmark
FY15-YTD March-15 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY14-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
Sep-14
Industrial and Comm. Bank of China
Fund Performance
Dec-13
1.58%
Mar-14
1.49%
Naspers Ltd
Sep-13
China Construction Bank
T-Bills 42%
Jun-13
2.03%
Dec-12
China Mobile
Cash 35%
Mar-13
2.50%
Sep-12
Tencent Holdings
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 102 107.6538 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAEMF is Benchmark calculated through a 30:70 combination of MSCI Emerging Markets Index and 6-month TBills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM3+ by PACRA (26.6.2014)
Jun-12
Samsung Electronics
Asset Allocation
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2015) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
LAAEMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Farhan Bashir Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
12
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of April 02, 2015
Income Funds ABL Income Fund Atlas Income Fund Faysal Savings Growth Fund First Habib Income Fund HBL Income Fund IGI Income Fund JS Income Fund Lakson Income Fund MCB Dynamic Cash Fund NAFA Financial Sector Income Fund NAFA Income Fund NAFA Income Opportunity Fund NAFA Saving Plus Fund NIT - Income Fund Pakistan Income Fund PICIC Income Fund UBL Financial Sector Bond Fund Islamic Income Funds ABL Islamic Income Fund Al Ameen Islamic Sovereign Fund Askari Islamic Income Fund Atlas Islamic Income Fund Faysal Islamic Savings Growth Fund IGI Islamic Income Fund JS Islamic Government Securities Fund MCB Islamic Income Fund Meezan Islamic Income Fund Meezan Sovereign Fund NAFA Riba Free Savings Fund Pak Oman Advantage Islamic Income Fund
Money Market Funds
ABL Cash Fund AKD Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Cash Fund Askari Sovereign Cash Fund Atlas Money Market Fund BMA Empress Cash Fund Faysal Money Market Fund First Habib Cash Fund HBL Money Market Fund IGI Money Market Fund JS Cash Fund KASB Cash Fund Lakson Money Market Fund MCB Cash Management Optimizer NAFA Government Securities Liquid Fund NAFA Money Market Fund Pakistan Cash Management Fund PICIC Cash Fund PIML Daily Reserve Fund UBL Liquidity Plus Fund UBL Money Market Fund Islamic Money Market Funds Al Ameen Islamic Cash Fund HBL Islamic Money Market Fund Meezan Cash Fund PIML Islamic Money Market Fund
30 Days 13.77 8.48 10.76 8.99 8.67 9.72 5.57 11.84 8.65 8.13 7.84 9.34 8.15 9.69 7.96 8.62 19.99
90 Days 17.65 12.09 17.22 13.26 11.20 15.21 10.14 16.56 13.52 9.54 13.53 12.95 8.90 14.49 11.16 12.40 15.26
8.48 9.54 3.44 7.73 6.91 7.53 8.11 7.28 6.87 8.02 6.99 4.00
Annualized Returns (%) 180 Days 18.36 13.98 16.75 13.21 14.04 15.39 12.78 16.30 15.51 10.97 15.90 14.84 8.89 18.13 12.56 14.11 14.07
270 Days 15.74 13.37 15.15 11.93 13.10 13.91 11.71 14.73 14.30 10.69 14.54 13.55 8.89 N/A 12.47 13.39 12.30
365 Days 14.09 12.04 13.65 11.01 12.78 12.38 10.70 12.61 15.05 9.54 7.17 15.23 8.85 13.64 11.61 11.83 11.03
9.02 8.87 6.59 8.46 7.38 7.65 8.99 8.67 9.46 9.48 7.44 5.38
9.17 7.29 7.77 7.60 8.10 7.94 7.47 6.75 8.47 7.54 7.53 5.62
9.09 6.02 6.85 7.12 8.58 7.16 6.17 5.91 8.27 6.55 7.46 5.63
9.16 7.11 7.37 7.32 8.54 6.81 6.43 6.56 10.50 6.70 7.61 4.67
7.80 8.46 6.57 7.18 7.23 6.95 7.63 7.18 7.01 7.38 7.07 7.05 7.44 7.72 7.18 7.75 7.52 7.46 7.77 7.13 7.08
8.45 8.56 8.01 8.33 8.11 8.45 8.28 8.04 7.72 8.29 8.31 7.42 8.39 8.52 8.16 8.46 8.12 8.89 8.86 8.09 8.05
8.67 8.73 8.33 8.41 8.44 8.44 8.57 8.39 8.17 8.54 8.72 8.36 8.55 8.67 8.50 8.68 8.39 9.15 9.10 8.37 8.19
8.74 8.90 8.43 8.53 8.60 8.48 8.68 8.48 8.35 8.62 8.87 8.55 8.65 8.67 8.57 8.78 8.54 9.20 9.22 8.51 8.29
8.77 9.06 8.55 8.54 8.71 8.57 8.79 8.57 8.45 8.74 9.03 8.68 8.70 8.74 8.71 8.87 8.70 9.20 9.29 8.58 8.37
5.28 5.74 7.76 6.43
6.13 6.56 8.15 6.25
6.65 7.35 8.01 6.08
6.84 7.27 7.68 6.04
6.43 7.19 7.37 5.44
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
13
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of April 02, 2015 Aggressive Income Funds AKD Aggressive Income Fund Alfalah GHP Income Multiplier Fund Askari High Yield Scheme BMA Chundrigar Road Savings Fund Faysal Income & Growth Fund IGI Aggressive Income Fund KASB Income Opportunity Fund Pakistan Income Enhancement Fund United Growth & Income Fund Islamic Aggressive Income Funds Al Ameen Islamic Aggressive Income Fund KASB Islamic Income Opportunity Fund NAFA Islamic Aggressive Income Fund Equity Funds ABL Stock Fund AKD Opportunity Fund Alfalah GHP Alpha Fund Askari Equity Fund Atlas Stock Market Fund First Capital Mutual Fund First Habib Stock Fund IGI Stock Fund JS Large Cap Fund JS Value Fund Lakson Equity Fund NAFA Stock Fund National Investment Unit Trust Pakistan Stock Market Fund Pakistan Strategic Allocation Fund PICIC Energy Fund PICIC Stock Fund United Stock Advantage Fund Islamic Equity Funds ABL Islamic Stock Fund Al Ameen Shariah Stock Fund Al Meezan Mutual Fund Atlas Islamic Stock Fund HBL Islamic Stock Fund JS Islamic Fund Meezan Islamic Fund PIML Islamic Equity Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days 19.00 11.79 10.65 (2.60) 8.43 (1.44) (18.93) 10.29 8.16
90 Days 23.91 19.55 14.29 9.02 15.54 (1.05) (6.67) 16.12 20.06
180 Days 32.04 19.85 17.03 14.29 16.10 1.03 (0.87) 17.73 17.09
270 Days 22.01 16.79 15.00 14.56 14.15 3.18 0.69 16.13 14.13
365 Days 18.42 17.23 15.11 13.51 12.36 4.55 10.28 14.43 18.02
8.22 (2.44) 8.38
8.20 (5.04) 8.64
7.79 0.30 8.60
7.92 2.66 9.12
11.36 4.49 11.68
(6.83) (9.16) (7.17) (7.85) (7.24) (7.71) (5.96) (7.15) (7.45) (8.42) (7.95) (7.53) (9.27) (6.80) (6.19) (3.87) (4.74) (9.62)
(3.66) (13.84) (6.21) (1.70) (2.80) (5.99) (4.22) (5.95) (5.20) (6.10) (5.97) (2.86) (9.05) 1.25 (3.37) 0.69 (8.03) (9.86)
10.95 2.02 5.73 4.70 3.84 1.52 1.40 6.55 19.14 1.65 7.13 12.24 1.70 16.98 2.89 1.83 (0.97) 2.13
11.90 3.20 8.82 5.28 6.88 3.95 2.70 8.85 19.94 2.50 13.16 18.12 N/A 20.35 6.51 (0.48) 3.05 6.67
17.20 8.27 16.96 9.58 12.48 9.90 8.27 17.01 25.21 5.43 18.31 25.61 14.37 30.01 10.79 1.14 8.60 12.25
(4.87) (8.57) (6.68) (7.07) (5.58) (7.88) (6.61) (6.19)
1.00 (7.19) (3.11) (0.30) (3.53) (5.23) (4.29) (2.81)
13.07 5.51 2.68 4.35 0.46 22.05 2.70 7.02
13.75 9.92 6.63 5.79 1.98 21.31 5.96 5.78
18.30 15.24 14.59 11.38 5.83 26.65 12.31 8.96
(3.33) (4.95) (4.90) (5.04) (6.72)
1.87 (3.69) (0.98) 3.76 (5.45)
12.84 (4.47) 9.38 13.16 6.84
10.54 (2.62) 13.70 17.36 6.11
21.61 (0.25) 20.59 26.93 9.85
(5.24) (3.73)
(4.16) (1.80)
(3.22) 3.20
(1.22) 5.97
1.57 10.60
Balanced Funds Faysal Balanced Growth Fund HBL Multi Asset Fund NAFA Multi Asset Fund Pakistan Capital Market Fund Unit Trust of Pakistan Islamic Balanced Funds First Habib Islamic Balanced Fund Meezan Balanced Fund N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
14
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of April 02, 2015 Asset Allocation Funds Alfalah GHP Value Fund Askari Asset Allocation Fund Faysal Asset Allocation Fund JS Aggressive Asset Allocation KASB Asset Allocation Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund MCB Dynamic Allocation Fund NAFA Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Advantage Asset Allocation Fund Islamic Asset Allocation Funds Al Ameen Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Alfalah GHP Islamic Fund Askari Islamic Asset Allocation Fund NAFA Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pakistan Int'l Element Islamic Asset Allocation Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days (5.05) (9.04) (5.55) (8.66) (3.65) (0.50) 0.28 0.58 (0.52) (5.10) (3.50)
90 Days (0.10) (6.88) (0.42) (6.27) (0.11) 2.77 2.19 3.05 4.02 (0.77) (2.69)
180 Days 7.76 0.39 11.12 2.14 8.65 4.94 3.99 5.74 11.68 8.20 3.18
270 Days 9.70 2.34 5.77 (0.21) 9.50 5.55 3.48 7.98 14.80 10.91 4.26
365 Days 14.70 5.02 16.84 12.95 15.23 8.34 6.60 9.41 19.53 14.73 7.64
(2.12) (4.75) (7.38) (4.17) (2.68) (2.52)
0.31 0.53 (3.75) 2.76 (1.51) 5.27
6.48 6.91 (0.12) 13.86 3.04 19.97
10.01 8.20 1.49 17.38 5.45 24.04
12.87 12.37 2.11 26.46 12.56 28.42
(0.66)
3.67
N/A
N/A
N/A
(2.89) (4.24)
1.59 0.83
8.95 7.51
11.19 9.60
14.58 N/A
Capital Protected Funds Pakistan Sarmaya Mehfooz Fund
Islamic Capital Protected Funds NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund I NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund II
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
15
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Markets Information Equities Total Return in PKR and % Markets
Index
YTD
3-mo
MSCI All Country World Index
3.3%
3.3%
Developed
MSCI World Index
3.2%
3.2%
Emerging
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
3.3%
3.3%
Europe
MSCI Europe Index
4.3%
China
CSI 300
Dubai
DFM
India
BSE Sensex 30
4.0%
Japan
Nikkei 225
11.3%
Malaysia
FTSE Bursa
-0.5%
-0.5%
Pakistan
KSE 100
-5.9%
-5.9%
1-yr
Total Return in USD and %
5-yr
YTD
3-mo
1-yr 5-yrWorld
7.3%
67.6%
1.8%
1.8%
3.3%
38.2%
8.0%
75.8%
1.8%
1.8%
4.0%
45.0%
1.7%
17.0%
1.9%
1.9%
-2.0%
-3.5%
4.3%
-3.9%
42.4%
2.9%
2.9%
-7.4%
17.4%
16.4%
16.4%
96.5%
61.7%
14.8%
14.8%
89.3%
33.3%
1.4%
1.4%
-8.0%
159.4%
0.0%
0.0%
-11.4%
113.9%
4.0%
24.2%
39.0%
2.6%
2.6%
19.7%
14.6%
11.3%
15.6%
63.4%
9.7%
9.7%
11.3%
34.8%
-9.4%
48.2%
-1.8%
-1.8%
-12.7%
22.2%
11.3%
197.0%
-7.2%
-7.2%
7.2%
144.9% 36.9%
Sri Lanka
Colombo All Share
-6.7%
-6.7%
16.4%
66.0%
-7.9%
-7.9%
12.2%
UK
FTSE 100
-0.5%
-0.5%
-5.2%
41.1%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-8.7%
16.4%
US
DJIA
1.1%
1.1%
12.1%
98.6%
-0.3%
-0.3%
8.0%
63.7%
US
S&P 500
1.8%
1.8%
14.7%
114.4%
0.4%
0.4%
10.4%
76.8%
US
NASDAQ 100
3.7%
3.7%
25.1%
168.4%
2.3%
2.3%
20.5%
121.3%
Germany
DAX Index
9.8%
9.8%
1.3%
87.3%
8.2%
8.2%
-2.4%
54.5%
CANADA
TSX 300 Composite Index
-5.4%
-5.4%
-6.0%
20.1%
-6.7%
-6.7%
-9.5%
-0.9%
France
CAC - 40
6.0%
6.0%
-7.3%
22.0%
4.5%
4.5%
-10.7%
0.6%
Brazil
Sao Paulo SE Bovespa Index
-13.8%
-13.8%
-25.1%
-50.9%
-15.0%
-15.0%
-27.9%
-59.5%
Korea
Korea SE Kospi
6.2%
6.2%
2.4%
49.1%
4.8%
4.8%
-1.4%
22.9%
Taiwan
Taiwan SE Weighted Index
5.6%
5.6%
9.5%
48.9%
4.1%
4.1%
5.5%
22.8%
Automobile and Parts
-0.6%
-0.6%
112.3%
397.7%
-0.6%
-0.6%
112.3%
397.7%
Banks
7.7%
7.7%
31.0%
125.9%
7.7%
7.7%
31.0%
125.9%
Chemicals
21.3%
21.3%
41.0%
246.8%
21.3%
21.3%
41.0%
246.8%
Construction and Materials
21.0%
21.0%
67.1%
744.6%
21.0%
21.0%
67.1%
744.6%
Electricity
21.1%
21.1%
50.9%
228.5%
21.1%
21.1%
50.9%
228.5%
-30%
-5%
20%
45%
70%
KSE Sectors
Fixed Line Telecommunication
17.4%
17.4%
-12.3%
26.4%
17.4%
17.4%
-12.3%
26.4%
Food Producers
17.9%
17.9%
31.3%
520.6%
17.9%
17.9%
31.3%
520.6%
Non Life Insurance
8.8%
8.8%
36.2%
131.1%
8.8%
8.8%
36.2%
131.1%
Oil and Gas
-3.8%
-3.8%
-17.7%
83.0%
-3.8%
-3.8%
-17.7%
83.0%
Personal Goods
7.8%
7.8%
-0.1%
290.4%
7.8%
7.8%
-0.1%
290.4%
YTD 3-mo
Fixed Income Current Interbank Rates on Money Market China
SHIBOR
Historic 6-month Interbank Rates
1M
3M
6M
12M
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
5.01%
4.90%
4.78%
4.78%
4.56%
4.78%
4.81%
4.61%
1.21%
0.85%
0.89%
0.99%
Dubai
UAE IBOR
0.42%
0.73%
0.88%
1.06%
India
MIBOR
0.00%
0.00%
N.A.
N.A.
Japan
TIBOR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.35%
0.26%
0.29%
0.30%
Malaysia
KLIBOR
3.40%
3.73%
3.84%
3.92%
3.40%
3.88%
3.72%
3.50%
Pakistan
KIBOR
0.00%
7.99%
0.00%
8.26%
10.13%
8.62%
9.72%
9.69%
Sri Lanka
SLIBOR
7.13%
7.31%
7.63%
7.94%
10.72%
7.19%
7.65%
9.45%
UK
LIBOR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.78%
0.68%
0.68%
0.64%
US
SIBOR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.47%
0.38%
0.34%
0.36%
Current Market Yields on Government Securities
Govt. Securities vs. KIBOR
10.00% 9.75% 9.50% 9.25% 9.00% 8.75% 8.50% 8.25% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00%
Interbank Mar-15
1W
Historic 12-Month Paper Rates
3M
12M
5Y
10Y
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
China
4.04%
3.18%
3.48%
3.63%
3.12%
3.16%
3.46%
3.46%
India
8.31%
8.31%
7.75%
7.74%
8.37%
8.45%
8.61%
8.58%
Japan
0.01%
-0.01%
0.14%
0.41%
0.06%
-0.02%
0.00%
0.03%
Malaysia
3.19%
3.23%
3.59%
3.89%
3.11%
3.37%
3.31%
3.16%
Pakistan
8.06%
7.94%
8.62%
9.41%
10.03%
8.34%
9.54%
9.58%
Sri Lanka
6.06%
6.30%
7.93%
8.20%
9.58%
6.07%
6.41%
8.13%
UK
0.50%
0.37%
1.19%
1.58%
0.36%
0.33%
0.41%
0.38%
US
0.02%
0.23%
1.37%
1.92%
0.13%
0.20%
0.13%
0.12%
3M
6M
1Y
2Y
12M Yields of Government Securities China India Japan Malaysia Pakistan Sri Lanka UK US 0%
16
1M
Govt. Sec. Mar-15
3%
6%
9%
12%
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Markets Information Commodities Total Return Commodity
Unit
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
Current Prices 5-yr
DB Commodity Index
USD Excess Return
-6.9%
-6.9%
-33.0%
-24.2%
350.9
S&P Global Commodity Index
USD Total Return
-8.2%
-8.2%
-40.3%
-34.0%
2967.1
Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index
USD Total Return
-5.9%
-5.9%
-27.0%
-25.5%
197.6
Coal
USD/Tonne
-8.8%
-8.8%
-23.8%
N.A
56.8
Copper
USc/lbs
-3.0%
-3.0%
-9.4%
-22.9%
274.0
Cotton
USc/lbs
4.7%
4.7%
-32.5%
-21.7%
63.1
Gold
USD/t oz.
-0.1%
-0.1%
-7.8%
6.3%
1183.1
Palm Oil
USD/Tonne
-11.9%
-11.9%
-30.9%
-28.4%
576.5
Sugar
USc/lbs
-17.8%
-17.8%
-32.9%
-28.1%
11.9
Wheat
USD/Bushel (60Ibs)
-13.2%
-13.2%
-26.6%
13.6%
5.1
WTI
USD/bbl
-10.6%
-10.6%
-53.1%
-43.2%
47.6
Brent Crude
USD/bbl
-3.9%
-3.9%
-48.9%
-33.4%
55.1
Heating Oil
USd/Gallon
-7.0%
-7.0%
-41.4%
N.A
171.8
RBOB Gasoline
USD/Gallon
24.0%
24.0%
-38.9%
-22.9%
1.8
Natural Gas
USD/MMBTU
-8.6%
-8.6%
-39.6%
-31.8%
2.6
Silver
USD/t Ozs
6.6%
6.6%
-16.0%
-5.3%
16.6
120
DBCI
SPGSCI
DJUBS
110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Currencies Change Versus PKR in %
Current Exchange Rates
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
190
Canadian Dollar
CAD
-7.35%
-7.35%
-9.67%
-2.86%
CAD - PKR
80.36
Euro
EUR
-10.43%
-10.43%
-19.18%
-3.60%
EUR - PKR
109.40
Indian Rupee
INR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-4.13%
INR - PKR
1.7941
150 130
Japanese Yen
JPY
0.75%
0.75%
-10.90%
51.52%
JPY - PKR
0.8485
Pound Sterling
GBP
-3.79%
-3.79%
-7.78%
18.44%
GBP - PKR
151.06
Singaporian Dollar
SGD
-2.39%
-2.39%
-4.97%
23.71%
SGD - PKR
74.28
US Dollar
USD
1.40%
1.40%
3.81%
21.27%
USD - PKR
101.93
GBP
EUR
CAD
USD
170
110 90 70 Dec-13 Feb-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14
17
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
Disclaimer This information has been prepared by Lakson Investments for your general information and private use only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned. It should not be considered as an incentive to invest. The securities described in this document may not be eligible for sale or subscription in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This document is not intended for distribution to a person or within a jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted or illegal. This document may not be conveyed to or used by a third party without our express consent. Any other use is not authorized. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and no member of Lakson Investments makes any warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All the information included in this presentation is current when this document is prepared and subject to changes at any time. Any forecast or projection or forward looking statement made in this document is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance, future events or future financial performance of securities, countries, markets or companies. Such statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ. Lakson Investments may from time to time provide services to the companies and their affiliates mentioned herein. Employees of Lakson Investments or ersons/entities connected to them may from time to time have position in or are holding any of the securities mentioned in this document. No consideration have been given to and no investigation was made of your investment objectives, financial situation or particulars, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting on such information or opinion or estimate. Lakson Investments expressly disclaims any fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise arising from any reliance placed on this information in this document. Disclaimer: All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV of Units may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future results. The investors are advised in their own interest to carefully read the Offering Document in particular the investment policy in Clause 2.2 and risk disclosure and warning statements contained in Clause 2.11 and Part 11 respectively in this Offering Document.
Transaction Locations: Islamabad: Contact Person: Mr. Ali Kazmi - Branch Manager Office No.6, Mezzanine floor, Kashmir Plaza, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, Islamabad. UAN: 051.111-111-717 Fax: 051.2870228 Lahore: Contact Person: Mr. Haider Abbas 14 Ali Block, 1st Floor New Garden Town, Lahore. Tel: 042.591.1025/26 Rawalpindi: Contact Person: Mr. Tariq Aziz - Branch Manager Suite No.3, 1 st Floor, Majeed Plaza Bank Road, Rawalpindi Tel: 051.551.2251/52 Fax: 051.511.0996 Faisalabad: Contact Person: Mr. Shahbaz Choudhry - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, FM Plaza 15-D, Peoples Colony, Faisalabad Tel: 041.324.1704/07 Fax: 041.855.4453 Sialkot: Contact Person: Mr. Nisar Bhatti - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, Karim Plaza Iqbal Town, Defence Road, Sialkot Tel: 052.324.1704/07 Fax: 052.324.1703
18
Lakson Outlook - March 2015
1954
DECADES OF SEASONED INVESTMENT
Century Insurance
Merit Packaging Limited
Century Paper & Board Mills
Hassan Ali Karabhai Foundation
Lakson Investments Limited. Lakson Square, Building No. 2, Sarwar Shaheed Road, Karachi-74200, Pakistan
UAN T F E
+92.21 111 Lakson +92.21 3569.8000 +92.21 3568.1653
[email protected] www.li.com.pk