March 2014
Lakson Outlook Economic and Markets Review FMR Lakson Money Market Fund FMR Lakson Income Fund FMR Lakson Equity Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Markets Information
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Table of contents Economic & Markets Review
04 - 05
Lakson Money Market Fund
06
Lakson Income Fund
07
Lakson Equity Fund
08
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
09
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
10 - 11
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
12 - 13
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison
14 - 15
Markets Information
16 - 17
03
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Economic & Markets Review - Pakistan
Yield Curve 14.0%
Economic Review Inflation rebounded during Mar'14, as CPI increased by 8.5% YoY compared to 7.9% YoY in Feb'14. On a MoM basis, it increased by 1.0%, driven by a 2.2% MoM rebound in "Food & Nonalcoholic Beverages" and a 1.5% MoM surge in "Health". Within Food group, perishable food items index increased by 10.8% MoM as prices of potatoes and tomatoes jumped by 39% and 53%, respectively, over the previous month. While the CPI inflation rebounded in Mar'14, CoreNFNE (Non Food Non Energy) inflation continued on the downward trajectory clocking in at 7.6%, from a high of 8.6% in Sep-13. The average inflation for the 9MFY14 stood at 8.6% compared to 8.0% during the same period of the last year.
13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 1W
The Federal Board of Revenue ("FBR") collected PKR 1,573 billion in taxes during 9MFY14, higher by PKR 219 billion or 16% over the collection made in the comparative period of last fiscal year. However, the collection was PKR 210 billion short of the target, on the basis of PKR 2,475 billion budget target approved by the Parliament in June last year. The IMF has already revised the annual target downward to PKR 2,345 billion. On the external front, the current account posted a surplus of USD 164 million in Feb'14 compared to a deficit of USD 427 million during the last month, limiting the cumulative deficit for the 8MFY14 to USD 2,020 million (1.2% of GDP). The improvement in current account was attributed to shrinking trade balance coupled with the fact that the country received USD 350 million under the Coalition Support Fund ("CSF") program. Trade deficit reduced by 24% MoM to USD 1,062 million as the decline in imports outpaced the decline in exports. The month of March was promising for the external account as PKR strengthened 6.1% against the USD during the month, to close the USD at PKR 98.2. The appreciation in PKR came in on the back of USD 1.5 billion grant disbursed by Saudi Arabia coupled with IMF Board's approval for the third tranche of USD 555 million. As a result, the net foreign exchange reserves of the country increased by USD 1,121 million to USD 9.89 billion during the month (as of Mar 28, 2014). Fixed-Income Market Review - March 2014 The SBP released its Monetary Policy Statement on 15th March, wherein it kept the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 10%, contrary to the market participants' expectations. Yield on the 3-month T-Bills declined by 3 bps, while the 12-month T-Bills increased 1 bp. Yield on the 6month T-Bill remained unchanged at 10%. The SBP injected an average of PKR 130 billion in the three open market operations while mopping up an average of PKR 35 billion in two open market operations during the month. At the long end of the curve, the yields on the 3-year and 10-year PIBs fell by 3 bps and 1 bp, respectively, to 11.97% and 12.83% per annum, while yield on the 5-year PIB rose by 1 bp to 12.47% per annum. The government raised PKR 559 billion through two T-Bill auctions against a target of PKR 1 trillion and maturity of PKR 939 billion. Market participation in the auctions increased in March as the bid-to-cover ratio for the two auctions came in at 0.56x (vs. 0.49x in February) with 32.7% of total bids made in the 3-month tenor against 78.8% in February. Participation in the PIB auction improved significantly in March; investors placed bids of PKR 546 billion against the auction target of PKR 60 billion and maturity of only PKR 6.5 billion, resulting in a bid-to-cover ratio of 9.1x as compared to 4.7x in the February auction. The government raised PKR 532 billion from the March PIB auction, whereas in the 1QCY14, the government has raised PKR 979 billion from PIBs compared to PKR 101 billion in the preceding quarter (4QCY13). M2 growth as of 21th March 2014 came in at 5.48% compared to 8.41% in the same period last year. Net Domestic Assets ("NDA") of the banking system rose by 6.99% since June-end, whereas Net Foreign Assets ("NFA") contracted by 43% during the same period. Growth in the NDA thus far has mainly been driven by a 31% surge in the government borrowing from the SBP, while borrowing from scheduled banks has decreased by 4% since June 30th. Credit disbursement to the private sector has skyrocketed as PKR 305 billion was disbursed till 21st March, compared to PKR 118 billion in the same period last year. The 3-month KIBOR increased 3 bps MoM to 10.18% at March-end, while the 6-month KIBOR also stood at 10.18% up 1 basis point during the month. Equity Market Review - March 2014 The KSE100 index posted a gain of 5.34% during March, bringing the CY14TD return to 7.52%. Equity investors grew optimistic due to lower-than-expected inflation for the previous month, significant recovery in foreign exchange reserves through receipts of USD 1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia and USD 556 million from the IMF. Contrary to market expectations, the SBP did not cut the benchmark rate in March, but the stock market rallied on expectations of a cut in the next MPS due in May'14. Foreign investors sold USD 5.1 million worth of local equities on a net basis, bringing their CY14TD total to USD 36 million. Average daily volumes in the equity market declined by 9% MoM to 215 million shares while average daily turnover increased by 24% MoM to PKR 9.6 billion. Participation from the local mutual funds surged due to the launch of new funds during the month, resulting in a net buy of USD 54.7 million. Banks and DFIs continued their buying spree in March, adding USD 12.6 million of stocks to their portfolios while individuals sold USD 9.7 million (net). Compared to other regional markets, the KSE100 Index outperformed the Indian, Indonesian and Chinese equity benchmarks, which posted USD-based monthly returns of +9.0%, +5.3% and -2.3%, respectively, against the KSE100 index's 11.4% return. In terms of sector-wise performance, commercial banks outperformed the market on expectations of higher net interest margins following substantial participation in the latest PIB auction (high double-digit yield). Oil marketing companies also outperformed the market on the expectations of a hike in their margins and higher interest income.
2M
6M
2Y
5Y
28-Feb-14
8Y
15Y
31-Mar-14
USD/PKR vs. Forex Reserves Forex Res. (USD bn.) - RHS USD/PKR
106.0
10.0
104.5
9.8
103.0
9.5
101.5
9.3
100.0
9.0
98.5
8.8
97.0
8.5
1-Mar
8-Mar
15-Mar
22-Mar
29-Mar
Market Rates
12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 3-Mar
12-Mar
6M KIBOR
O/N Repo Rate
21-Mar 6M T-Bill
While the CPI inflation rebounded in Mar'14, CoreNFNE (Non Food Non Energy) inflation continued on the downward trajectory clocking in at 7.6%, from a high of 8.6% in Sep-13. The average inflation for the 9MFY14 stood at 8.6% compared to 8.0% during the same period of the last year.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
04
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Economic & Markets Review - International Developed Market Review The developed markets, as tracked by the MSCI World Index, posted a loss of 0.1% in March as positive returns from the US were offset by losses from Europe and Japan. The US Federal Reserve released its monetary policy statement on 19th March, wherein it announced a further cut of USD 10 billion in the monthly taper program. The Fed also updated its guidance regarding the likely future path of the short-term interest rates, citing its intention to now consider a "wide range of information" as opposed to specific quantitative targets for the unemployment rate and inflation. World equity markets reacted negatively to the Fed's announcement. The change in the Fed's guidance follows a similar change in the Bank of England's policy, which suggests that central banks in the developed markets are not seeking a drastic change in their accommodative monetary policy, at least in the near term. The US GDP growth for the 4QCY13 came in at an annualized rate of 2.6% QoQ, vs. 4.1% annualized growth witnessed in the 3QCY13.The labor market in the US posted a slight deterioration, with the unemployment rate for February ticking higher to 6.7% vs. 6.6% in January. The European Central Bank ("ECB") held its key interest rate at a record low of 0.25% in March, as recent economic data suggests that the Euro area is performing as expected wherein inflation remains below target and credit dynamics remain subdued. The ECB also announced a fractional increase in their GDP growth forecast for the Euro area, expected the region to grow by 1.2% in CY14 vs. 1.1% in its previous forecast in December. A gradual recovery in domestic and external demand is expected to be the driving factor behind the projected increase in GDP growth. On the price front, inflation was now expected to average 1.0% in CY14, a slight cut from previous estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro area stood at 11.9% for the month of February '14, unchanged from a month earlier and just 0.1% lower than the year before. Flash estimate of consumer inflation the Euro area came in at 0.5% YoY for March, vs. 0.7% YoY in February, and still far below the ECB's target of 2.0%. Japanese industrial output fell 2.3% in February from the previous month, vs. a 0.3% rise expected by economists in a Reuters' poll. However, the negative impact of weak industrial production data was countered, to some extent, by the 1.4% MoM depreciation in the Japanese Yen, which bodes well for export revenues. Emerging Markets Review The month of Mar'14 brought another round of healing for assets in the emerging markets. For the second month in a row, stocks in these nations posted handsome gains. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 2.9% during the month, with IBOVESPA of Brazil and BSE Sensex of India leading the way by posting gains of 6.0% and 7.1%, respectively. In contrast, SHSN 300 of China lost 1.5% as weak February economic data sparked concerns that China's annual growth rate may fall below the government's 7.5% target in the first quarter of this year. Exports fell sharply in the month, while industrial production and retail sales growth fell short of expectations. Furthermore, premier Li Keqiang also warned that further defaults on Chinese corporate bonds and other financial products would be "unavoidable" following the country's first onshore bond default. The Russian equities also fell 5.2% during the month, hit by concerns over the fallout from Russian military intervention in Ukraine. The Russian ruble fell sharply against the US dollar as investors fled the country, forcing the Russian central bank to raise policy rates by 1.5 pps to 7% to defend the currency. The Indian equities were buoyed by the announcement of dates for parliamentary elections next month. Polls suggested pro-business candidate Narendra Modi, of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, could lead India's next government. Among other major news flows, Bank Indonesia chose to hold the key rate at 7.5%, as officials waited to gauge the lagged impact of a recent hiking cycle. Korean monetary authorities also held rates, at 2.5%, assessing modest inflation and reasonable growth prospects. In contrast, the Bank of Thailand cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2%, motivated by the negative economic effects of domestic political turmoil. Commodities The DBC Commodity Index marginally increased by 0.2% during Mar'14 as food commodities, especially wheat and corn, showed an upward trend during the month. The oil declined marginally during the month as US stockpiles are increasing especially the crude inventories at Cushing Oklahoma. WTI declined 0.3% during Mar'14 as stockpiles have improved and tension between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea has eased off. An Energy Information Administration report showed supplies rose for an eleventh week of gains. Gold declined during the month of Mar'14 by 3.2% as the US economy is improving. The US Fed continued to taper off the stimulus program by further USD 10 billion to USD 55 billion third time in a row, as the economy is showing signs of improvement. The continuous improvement in the US economy led gold to decline and equities to accelerate. The Fed also indicates this time that, it will increase interest rates as US economy further improves, which is expected to cause further decline in gold. The outlook for gold is bleak as US economy is recovering. However, physical demand from China is supporting the gold to some extent. Copper declined during the month of March'14 as demand from the world largest consumer of Copper China remains depressed. Among the agricultural commodities, wheat increased by 15.8% as wheat stock piles falls on global demand. Corn increased during the month of March'14 by 8.3% as supplies are tighter than expected.
Performance of Equities & Commodities 140%
MSCI World Index MSCI EM Index DB Commodity Index 120%
100%
80% Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Valuations of International Markets 24 20 16 12 8 4 DM
US
UK
Japan Canada EM
Brazil Russia India China
P/E Multiple
The US Federal Reserve released its monetary policy statement on 19th March, wherein it announced a further cut of USD 10 billion in the monthly taper program. The Fed also updated its guidance regarding the likely future path of the short-term interest rates, citing its intention to now consider a "wide range of information" as opposed to specific quantitative targets for the unemployment rate and inflation.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
05
Mar-14
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Lakson Money Market Fund
MUFAP’s Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Money Market Fund is to provide stable and competitive returns in line with the money markets, exhibiting low volatility consistent with capital preservation by constructing a liquid portfolio of low risk short term investments. Performance Review The Lakson Money Market Fund ("LMMF") generated an annualized return of 7.89% in Mar'14, compared to the Benchmark return of 8.95%. In anticipation of a peak in interest rates and a distinct possibility of monetary easing in the 4QFY14/1QFY15, the fund's exposure to shorter tenors was reduced and portfolio's WAM was increased from 37 days to 64 days. In addition, exposure to T bills was reduced further from 66.7% to 54.4% in favor of investment in longer tenor PIBs and fixed placements through TDRs and COIs. Allocation to PIBs was built up to 11.4%, while exposure to TDRs and COIs was maintained at 32.7%. The investment strategy has three elements to it; firstly, investing in PIBs will generate capital gains for the fund in case of a decline in yields, secondly, placing funds with AA-rated institutions aims to shield the fund from market volatility and provide a measure of consistency to daily returns, thirdly, continued exposure to T-Bills allows the fund to maintain liquidity and the ability to remain flexible in fast-changing economic environment. WWF Disclosure As of March 31, 2014 the LMMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 47.41 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LMMF would be higher by PKR 0.5768. If the LMMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY14, the year to date annualized return of the LMMF for FY14 would be higher by 0.14%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 9.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of December 31, 2013) of the LMMF.
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2014) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee
Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark
Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Fund Rating Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
Open-End Money Market Fund 8,306 100.1418 Previous Day CDC Pakistan Limited KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co. "10% of Gross Earnings subject to a minimum of 1.00% and maximum of 1.25% of the average annual net assets" None None November 13, 2009 50% Average 3M T-bills yield + 50% Average 3M TDR rate of minimum AA rated banks. Mon - Fri 4:00 PM 'AA' by PACRA Low Risk AM3+
Performance Asset Allocation
Credit Split
Cash 2%
AA 12%
TDRs 18%
AA+ 22%
T-Bills 55%
COIs / LOPs 14%
Government Securities /AAA 66%
PIB 11%
Morningstar FY14 - YTD March-14 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY14 - YTD
LMMF 7.67% 8.18% 8.45% 8.51% 7.96% 7.76% 8.51%
Benchmark 8.39% 9.32% 9.60% 9.06% 8.68% 8.39% 9.06%
Simple Annualized FY14 - YTD March-14 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY14 - YTD
LMMF 7.60% 7.89% 8.17% 8.25% 7.81% 7.76% 8.25%
Benchmark 8.32% 8.95% 8.96% 8.65% 8.43% 8.39% 8.96%
LMMF vs. Benchmark
Asset Allocation Instruments
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 % of Total Assets 84% 66% 54% 0% 0% 11% 0% 18% 18% 16% 9% 14% 0% 7% 2%
Treasury Bills (T-Bills) Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) Placements with Banks (TDRs) Placements with DFIs (COIs/LOPs) Cash
WAM* Days 52 140 7 127 1
109 106
100
Key Interest Rates (Monthly Average)
Jun-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14
10.21% 9.95% 9.42%
10.25% 9.94% 9.92%
10.09% 9.96% 9.88%
* Source: Bloomberg, Reuters
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2014 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
112
103
* Weighted Average Maturity
KIBOR (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 12M) T-Bills (3M, 6M, 12M) Repo (O/N, 1M, 3M, 6M, 12M)
115
Nil. Nil. 64 Days
10.11%
9.98%
9.90%
10.10%
Benchmark
LMMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Khurram Schehzad Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
06
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Lakson Income Fund
MUFAP’s Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Income Fund is to provide competitive total return through investment in a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities. Investments will be made in a variegated mix of short term, medium term and longer term maturities depending on the assessment by the Investment Team of interest rate trends and prospective returns. Performance Review The Lakson Income Fund ("LIF") generated an annualized return of 15.23% in Mar'14, compared to the Benchmark return (average return of all income funds) of 12.76%. The LIF outperformed the average income fund by 247 bps. As stated in last month's report, the fund had decided to build PIB exposure back in Jan'14 which along with an upward revision in the TFC holdings has allowed the fund to generate a very competitive return of 12.80% during the calendar year 2014. PIB exposure was further increased to 25.0% from 18.7% in Feb'14, while T-Bill exposure decreased from 32.9% to 25.9%. The build-up of longer tenor exposure naturally resulted in an increase in the fund's WAM, from 978 days in Feb'14 to 1,006 days in Mar'14. With the outlook on interest rates increasingly positive, the risk-reward ratio of maintaining a higher WAM has turned in our favor. WWF Disclosure As of March 31, 2014 the LIF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 9.99 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LIF would be higher by PKR 1.0712. If the LIF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY14, the year to date annualized return of the LIF for FY14 would be higher by 0.21%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 10.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of December 31, 2013) of the LIF.
Asset Allocation COIs / LOPs 10%
T-Bills 26%
AA20%
AAA 61%
AA+ 12%
PIBs 25%
TFCs Portfolio Name of the Issue Bank Al Habib Limited IV Standard Chartered Bank Bank Al Falah Limited V PMCL VII Askari Bank Limited IV Orix Leasing Pakistan WAPDA SUKUK III K-ELECTRIC AZM SUKUK III
Issue Date % of Total Assets 30-Jun-11 2.35% 29-Jun-12 2.65% 20-Feb-13 7.00% 18-Apr-12 5.28% 23-Dec-11 8.11% 30-Jun-11 0.74% 14-Oct-13 6.63% 19-Mar-14 4.23%
Rating AA AAA AAAAAAAA+ AAA A+
Treasury Bills (T-Bills) Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) Placements with Banks (TDRs) Placements with DFIs (COIs/LOPs) Term Finance Certificates (TFCs) Sukuks Cash
LIF 9.17% 16.34% 12.90% 13.43% 10.64% 9.06% 13.43%
Benchmark 8.46% 13.53% 10.35% 11.17% 9.55% 8.57% 11.17%
Simple annualized FY14 - YTD March-14 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY14 - YTD
LIF 9.07% 15.23% 12.25% 12.80% 10.37% 9.06% 12.80%
Benchmark 8.37% 12.76% 9.93% 10.73% 9.33% 8.57% 10.73%
115 112 109 106 103
Jan-14
Feb-14
39% 10% 0% 19% 26% 6% 0%
% of Total Assets 33% 18% 0% 0% 26% 10% 13%
* Weighted Average Maturity
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2014 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Morningstar FY14 - YTD March-14 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY14 - YTD
LIF vs. Benchmark
Asset Allocation Instruments
Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Fund Rating Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
Open-End Income Fund 962 101.5473 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co. 1.50% 1.50% None November 13, 2009 Average of returns earned by the Income Funds Mon - Fri 4:00 PM 'A+' by PACRA Medium Risk AM3+
Performance
A+ 4%
AA 3% TFCs 26%
Benchmark
Credit Split
Cash 2%
Sukuks 11%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2014) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date
Nil. Nil. 1,006 Days
Mar-14
WAM*
26% 25% 0% 10% 26% 11% 2%
Days 23 548 1 165 2,249 2,388 1
100 Jun-12
Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13
Jun-13
Benchmark
Sep-13
Dec-13 Mar-14
LIF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Khurram Schehzad Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
07
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Lakson Equity Fund
MUFAP’s Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Equity Fund is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing mainly in equity and related listed securities. Investments will be made in companies of substance, financial strength and demonstrably superior management skills with some exposure given to smaller capitalized value stocks. Performance Review The Lakson Equity Fund ("LEF") rose by 2.82% in Mar'14 compared to benchmark the KSE-30 Index return of 2.22% for the month of March, 2014. The LEF outperformed the benchmark KSE-30 index by 60 bps during the month of March. With this, the Fund has provided a cumulative return of 130.72% since its inception. During the month, the LEF inched up its exposure in equities to 82% compared to 80% at the start of the month. The LEF increased exposure in Oil & Gas, Construction & Material, Banking and Chemicals while the exposure was reduced in Electricity and Personal Goods sectors. Presently, the Fund is trading at a P/E multiple of 7.9x with an average dividend yield of 5.04%. WWF Disclosure As of March 31, 2014 the LEF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 6.41 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LEF would be higher by PKR 1.1107. If the LEF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY14, the year to date return of the LEF for FY14 would be higher by 0.75%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 9.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of December 31, 2013) of the LEF.
Top 10 Holdings (In Alphabetical Order) D.G. Khan Cement Company Engro Corporation Limited Kohat Cement Company Lucky Cement Company Oil and Gas Development Pakistan Oilfields Limited Pakistan Petroleum Limited Pakistan State Oil Sitara Chemicals Limited United Bank Limited
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2014) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
Open-End Equity Fund 834 144.5224 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 3.00% 3.00% None November 13, 2009 KSE-30 Index Mon-Fri 4:00 PM High Risk AM3+
Asset Allocation 6.43% 4.86% 5.06% 5.31% 6.46% 5.09% 6.76% 7.24% 3.67% 3.74%
Cash & Equi. 3%
T-Bills 15%
Performance
Equities 82%
FY14 - YTD March-14 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY14 - YTD
LEF
KSE-30
KSE-100
25.50% 2.82% -0.25% 4.85% 21.50% 40.21% 4.85%
18.28% 2.22% -0.65% 1.92% 15.62% 34.93% 1.92%
29.30% 5.34% 1.40% 7.52% 24.40% 50.53% 7.52%
Sectorwise Exposure Sectorwise Exposure
Feb-14
Mar-14
Oil & Gas Const. & Mat. Commercial Banks Chemicals Electricity Others
24.00% 15.88% 12.17% 10.86% 6.70% 9.45%
25.55% 17.49% 14.20% 11.41% 5.19% 8.62%
Others Electricity
LEF vs. Benchmark
Oil & Gas
Chemicals 190 Commercial Banks
170 Const. & Mat. 150
Asset Allocation (% of Total Assets) Equities Advance agsinst Subscription of Shares Government Securities (T-Bills) Cash & Equivalents
130
Jan-14 85% 0% 10% 5%
Feb-14 80% 0% 13% 7%
Mar-14 82% 0% 15% 3%
110 90 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14
LEF
KSE-100
KSE-30
Pakistan vs. Global Markets Country Pakistan India Malaysia Dubai USA USA
Index KSE-100 BSE Sensex 30 FTSE KLCI DFM General DJIA S&P 500
* Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2014 Non Performing Assets
1M Return 5.34% 5.99% 0.74% 5.46% 0.83% 0.69%
P/E 10.22 17.80 17.34 19.42 15.43 17.26
Div. Yield 5.81% 1.60% 3.12% 2.40% 2.31% 2.07%
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Khurram Schehzad Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
08
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
MUFAP’s Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and commodities. Performance Review The Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund ("LAAGCF") increased by 1.29% in Mar'14 paralleling the decline in the Benchmark (70% 6-month T-Bills + 30% DBLC - OY Balanced Index) during the month. The LAAGCF very slightly underperformed the Benchmark, by even less than 1 bps. The LAAGCF has appreciated by 12.72% since its inception. As of March 31, 2014, the Fund has exposure in Foreign Currency Deposits (USD), while it is not holding any exposure in the Commodities ETF currently due to uncertain outlook on the Commodities keeping in view the global developments. WWF Disclosure As of March 31, 2014 the LAAGCF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 0.84 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAGCF would be higher by PKR 0.2175. If the LAAGCF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY14, the year to date return of the LAAGCF for FY14 would be higher by 0.06%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 9.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of December 31, 2013) of the LAAGCF.
Global Commodities (DB Balanced Commodity ETF) Commodity Gold WTI Crude Oil Heating Oil RBOB Gasoline Brent Crude Oil Soybeans Corn Sugar Zinc Copper Aluminium Natural Gas Silver Wheat (Kansas) Wheat Minneapolis Whea
Weight as of Feb-14 13.66% 8.24% 8.09% 8.07% 8.06% 7.39% 7.38% 7.33% 6.18% 5.77% 5.61% 4.20% 3.29% 2.31% 2.22% 2.20%
Asset Allocation
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 399 103.1429 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 1.25% 2.50% None October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAGCF is calculated through a 30:70 combination of DBLC - OY Balanced Index and 6month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM3+
Cash 2% USD Deposit 27%
Fund Performance
T-Bills 71%
FY14 - YTD March-14 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY14 - YTD Since Inception
5.33% -1.287% 0.56% 0.44% 1.22% 4.56% 0.44% 18.92%
Feb-14 36.66% 28.83% 17.56% 16.95%
113
Energy 36.66%
Base Metals 17.56%
111 109 107 105 103 101 99 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 % of Total Assets 69% 70% 70% 0% 0% 0% 29% 30% 30% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0%
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2014 Non Performing Assets
2.95% -1.292% -1.10% -0.51% 0.20% 2.02% -0.51% 12.72%
LAAGCF vs. Benchmark
Asset Allocation
Government Securities (T-Bills) Global Commodities Foreign Currency Deposit (USD) Placements with Banks (TDRs) Cash
Benchmark*
* The new Benchmark is effective from September 10, 2013.
Agriculture 28.83%
Instruments
LAAGCF
Sectorwise Exposure Precious Metals 16.95%
Sectorwise Exposure as of Energy Agriculture Base Metals Precious Metals
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2014) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark
Nil. Nil.
Feb-13 Apr-13
Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14
Benchmark
LAAGCF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Khurram Schehzad Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
09
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and developed markets securities. Performance Review The Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund ("LAADMF") decreased by 1.70% in Mar'14 compared to the Benchmark (70% 6-month T-Bills + 30% MSCI World Index) decline of 1.36%. The LAADMF's underperformance vis-à-vis the Benchmark only reflected the expense ratio to the tune of 34 bps. The LAADMF has appreciated by 25.87% since its inception. Developed Markets were also down during Mar'14 as the benchmark MSCI World Index slipped 0.1% during the month. The LAADMF's international exposure is in iShares MSCI World ETF, which tracks the performance of the MSCI World Index. WWF Disclosure As of March 31, 2014 the LAADMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 2.24 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAADMF would be higher by PKR 0.4438. If the LAADMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY14, the year to date return of the LAADMF for FY14 would be higher by 0.15%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 9.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of December 31, 2013) of the LAADMF.
Developed Markets Equities (iShares MSCI World ETF)
Apple Inc Exxon Mobil Corp Microsoft Corp Google Inc General Electric Johnson & Johnson Nestle SA Wells Fargo & Co Cheveron Corp JP Morgan Chase & Co.
As of Feb-14
MUFAP’s Recommended Format
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2014) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 562 111.3405 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 2.00% 2.50% None October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAADMF is calculated through a 30:70 combination of MSCI World Index and 6-month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM3+
Asset Allocation
1.50% 1.35% 0.99% 0.97% 0.84% 0.83% 0.79% 0.76% 0.72% 0.71%
Fund Performance
Cash 1.01% DM Equities 31%
T-Bills 68%
FY14 - YTD March-14 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY14 - YTD Since Inception
LAADMF Benchmark 7.02% -1.70% -0.05% -0.88% 1.99% 8.84% -0.88% 25.87%
9.56% -1.36% 0.37% -0.10% 3.55% 11.58% -0.10% 36.58%
LAADMF vs. Benchmark 127 125 123 121 119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99
Asset Allocation Instruments
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 % of Total Assets 66% 66% 68% 31% 33% 31% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1%
Government Securities (T-Bills) Developed Markets (DM) Equities Placements with Banks (TDRs) Cash
Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13
MSCI World Index Composition (As of Feb-14) Country United States United Kingdom Japan France Canada
Weight 54.92% 8.66% 8.03% 4.26% 4.12%
Sectors Financials Consumer Discretionary Information Technology Health Care Industrials
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2014 Non Performing Assets
Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14
Benchmark
Weight 20.59% 12.13% 12.36% 11.68% 11.30%
LAADMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Khurram Schehzad Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
10
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
iShares MSCI World ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type IDWR LN Equity DES and click on Allocations
iShares MSCI World ETF (Developed Markets): Holdings
Type IDWR LN Equity DES and click on Holdings
11
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
MUFAP’s Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and emerging market securities. Performance Review The Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund ("LAAEMF") was down 0.51% in Mar'14 almost in line with the decline registered by the Benchmark (70% 6-month T-Bills + 30% MSCI Emerging Markets Index) of 0.51%. The LAAEMF slightly outperformed the Benchmark by 0.01% during the month. The LAAEMF has appreciated by 16.17% since its inception. The Fund's international exposure is in iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, which tracks the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Emerging markets equities performed well in Mar'14 as the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased by 2.92% during the month. WWF Disclosure As of March 31, 2014 the LAAEMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 0.81 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAEMF would be higher by PKR 0.4692. If the LAAEMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY14, the year to date return of the LAAEMF for FY14 would be higher by 0.07%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 9.1 of the latest Financial Statements (Half Yearly Report as of December 31, 2013) of the LAAEMF.
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (31.03.2014) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark
Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
Emerging Market Equities Security
Asset Allocation
As of Feb-14
(iShare MSCI EM ETF)
Cash 2%
% of ETF Assts
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
3.65%
Fund Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd 2.54% Tencent Holdings Ltd.
1.95%
China Mobile Ltd
1.45%
China Construction Bank Corp
1.32%
Gazprom OAO
1.20%
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd
1.19%
Naspers Ltd
1.18%
Itau Unibanco Holdings
1.00%
Hyundai Motor Co
0.98%
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 180 103.9966 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 2.00% 2.50% None October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAEMF is calculated through a 30:70 combination of MSCI Emerging Markets Index and 6-month TBills. Mon - Fri 04:00 PM Medium Risk AM3+
EM Equities 30%
T-Bills 68%
FY14 - YTD March-14 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY14 - YTD Since Inception
LAAEMF Benchmark 3.69% -0.51% 0.53% -1.75% -0.41% 2.51% -1.75% 16.17%
6.31% -0.51% 0.79% -0.54% 1.41% 5.42% -0.54% 25.13%
LAAEMF vs. Benchmark
Asset Allocation Instruments Government Securities (T-Bills) Emerging Markets (EM) Equities Placements with Banks (TDRs) Cash
117
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 % of Total Assets 68% 67% 67% 29% 31% 31% 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 2%
115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101
EEM Composition (As of Feb - 14)
99 Jun-12
Country China South Korea Taiwan Brazil South Africa
Weight 18.03% 15.72% 11.84% 10.88% 7.73%
Sectors Financials Information Technology Energy Materials Consumer Discretionary
Disclosures Leverage as on March 31, 2014 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
Weight 26.40% 16.71% 10.75% 9.27% 9.27%
Aug-12 Oct12 Dec-12
Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13
Benchmark
Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14
LAAEMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Khurram Schehzad Muhammad Umair Chauhan Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Syed Imran Raza Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.
12
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF: Allocations
Type EEM US Equity DES and click on Allocations
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF: Holdings
Type EEM US Equity DES and click on Holdings
13
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of April 04, 2014 Income Funds ABL Income Fund Atlas Income Fund Faysal Savings Growth Fund First Habib Income Fund HBL Income Fund IGI Income Fund JS Income Fund Lakson Income Fund MCB Dynamic Cash Fund NAFA Financial Sector Income Fund NAFA Income Fund NAFA Income Opportunity Fund NAFA Saving Plus Fund NIT - Income Fund Pakistan Income Fund PICIC Income Fund UBL Financial Sector Bond Fund
Annualized Returns (%) 30 Days 10.52 13.26 10.46 7.95 18.39 8.97 12.65 13.90 8.13 9.95 14.11 26.59 7.38 9.91 10.18 15.80 8.03
90 Days 11.19 10.52 10.97 7.96 11.55 9.22 10.18 12.79 10.52 10.27 8.39 21.27 7.88 7.52 9.93 11.23 9.35
180 Days 9.37 9.17 9.48 7.65 10.76 8.55 9.79 10.20 9.48 8.96 7.55 16.85 7.75 7.60 8.24 10.16 8.12
270 Days 7.97 8.70 8.72 7.48 9.48 8.18 N/A N/A 8.77 8.64 7.83 15.21 7.75 7.38 7.85 9.37 7.01
365 Days 8.23 8.43 8.69 7.50 8.90 8.90 7.65 9.03 8.82 8.62 9.62 15.20 7.84 7.55 8.04 9.29 7.57
8.45 8.75 8.13 8.12 8.33 8.11 8.54 8.17 8.18 8.32 8.79 8.14 7.99 8.06 7.90 7.89 8.19 8.45 7.85 8.92 8.43
8.31 8.79 8.25 8.26 8.39 8.91 8.57 8.15 8.18 8.35 8.34 8.40 8.23 8.26 8.21 8.18 8.35 8.48 7.94 8.89 8.32
8.09 8.64 8.07 8.09 8.23 8.62 8.32 8.03 8.15 8.14 8.15 8.42 7.83 8.16 8.07 8.09 8.24 8.37 7.92 8.78 8.06
7.98 N/A 7.83 7.95 8.06 8.35 8.10 7.89 7.85 7.90 7.80 8.34 7.64 8.01 7.89 7.95 8.11 8.12 7.77 8.73 7.78
8.13 8.73 7.99 8.07 8.17 8.44 8.29 8.04 8.00 8.17 7.98 8.46 7.77 8.17 7.96 8.11 8.28 8.24 7.87 8.95 7.91
3.53 13.19 15.90 11.95 21.67 9.53 (4.24) 11.85 17.72
2.81 11.53 12.00 8.81 14.09 9.36 (2.00) 12.18 14.01
3.10 11.89 11.86 8.30 11.21 8.78 14.07 9.51 14.72
N/A 12.04 10.43 7.38 9.63 7.87 13.08 8.60 14.66
5.85 8.82 10.52 8.25 9.55 8.34 16.67 9.10 13.92
Money Market Funds ABL Cash Fund AKD Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Cash Fund Askari Sovereign Cash Fund Atlas Money Market Fund BMA Empress Cash Fund Faysal Money Market Fund First Habib Cash Fund HBL Money Market Fund IGI Money Market Fund JS Cash Fund KASB Cash Fund Lakson Money Market Fund MCB Cash Management Optimizer NAFA Government Securities Liquid Fund NAFA Money Market Fund Pakistan Cash Management Fund PICIC Cash Fund Primus Cash Fund Primus Daily Reserve Fund UBL Liquidity Plus Fund
Aggressive Income Funds AKD Aggressive Income Fund Alfalah GHP Income Multiplier Fund Askari High Yield Scheme BMA Chundrigar Road Savings Fund Faysal Income & Growth Fund IGI Aggressive Income Fund KASB Income Opportunity Fund Pakistan Income Enhancement Fund United Growth & Income Fund
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
14
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of April 04, 2014 Equity Funds
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days
90 Days
180 Days
270 Days
365 Days
ABL Stock Fund AKD Opportunity Fund
8.02 5.59
9.28 15.90
23.85 36.36
19.86 N/A
46.18 76.25
Alfalah GHP Alpha Fund
5.20
4.51
19.42
14.83
37.16
Askari Equity Fund Atlas Stock Market Fund
5.46 6.30
8.92 5.27
23.05 17.09
16.11 17.68
41.62 40.36
First Capital Mutual Fund
8.25
7.73
28.95
21.53
39.33
First Habib Stock Fund IGI Stock Fund
4.94 4.80
2.30 4.12
15.11 21.56
9.25 10.47
27.90 33.28
JS Large Cap Fund
10.27
6.89
32.64
N/A
51.65
Lakson Equity Fund MCB Dynamic Stock Fund
4.90 6.76
4.64 6.77
22.92 22.04
N/A 20.85
41.34 41.16
6.76
8.26
24.89
24.92
48.52
12.45 6.68
11.77 7.42
40.61 21.54
39.82 20.39
79.82 38.14
NAFA Stock Fund National Investment Unit Trust Pakistan Premier Fund Pakistan Stock Market Fund
7.11
7.88
22.38
20.99
40.13
Pakistan Strategic Allocation Fund PICIC Energy Fund
4.52 6.96
5.36 7.58
17.18 20.41
19.80 18.35
32.50 47.25
United Stock Advantage Fund
7.05
6.81
24.54
21.16
47.63
Balanced Funds Faysal Balanced Growth Fund
2.12
2.47
6.56
3.10
14.16
HBL Multi Asset Fund
5.88
6.42
21.27
17.10
33.24
NAFA Multi Asset Fund Pakistan Capital Market Fund
4.69 5.84
6.94 6.18
16.82 14.88
17.34 14.61
33.47 26.65
Unit Trust of Pakistan
5.87
6.07
21.11
N/A
32.76
Alfalah GHP Value Fund
3.45
2.72
14.44
9.72
24.93
Askari Asset Allocation Fund
3.42
7.38
18.30
12.19
29.60
Faysal Asset Allocation Fund JS Aggressive Asset Allocation
3.37 5.75
3.77 5.55
6.49 27.31
4.40 19.32
21.11 30.76
Asset Allocation Funds
KASB Asset Allocation Fund
3.43
9.16
29.80
26.43
34.21
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
(1.59) (0.20)
(0.77) (1.45)
2.12 (0.73)
N/A N/A
8.95 3.12
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
(1.34)
(0.67)
0.11
N/A
1.97
2.14 2.61
3.40 3.98
6.37 9.03
7.32 10.16
11.79 21.90
(0.50)
(3.94)
3.47
N/A
12.76
1.20
3.20
5.21
6.85
10.12
MCB Dynamic Allocation Fund NAFA Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Advantage Asset Allocation Fund
Capital Protected Funds ABL AMC Capital Protected Fund
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
15
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Markets Information Equities Total Return in PKR and %
Total Return in USD and %
Markets
Index
CY13
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
World
MSCI All Country World Index
-6.2%
-6.2%
13.9%
148.1%
0.6%
0.6%
14.2%
103.4%
Developed
MSCI World Index
-6.1%
-6.1%
16.4%
153.5%
0.8%
0.8%
16.7%
107.9%
Emerging
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
-7.5%
-7.5%
-4.1%
112.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-3.9%
74.5%
Europe
MSCI Europe Index
-5.4%
-5.4%
20.7%
133.7%
1.5%
1.5%
21.0%
91.6%
China
CSI 300
-16.4%
-16.4%
-14.3%
14.7%
-10.3%
-10.3%
-14.1%
-5.9%
Dubai
DFM
23.1%
23.1%
142.7%
246.1%
32.1%
32.1%
143.3%
183.8%
India
BSE Sensex 30
1.7%
1.7%
7.4%
138.2%
9.1%
9.1%
7.7%
95.3%
Japan
Nikkei 225
-13.4%
-13.4%
8.9%
113.8%
-7.1%
-7.1%
9.2%
75.3%
Malaysia
FTSE Bursa
-7.3%
-7.3%
4.6%
188.8%
-0.6%
-0.6%
4.8%
136.8%
Pakistan
KSE 100
7.5%
7.5%
50.5%
295.9%
15.3%
15.3%
50.9%
224.6%
Sri Lanka
Colombo All Share
-5.8%
-5.8%
0.7%
238.4%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
177.5%
UK
FTSE 100
-8.3%
-8.3%
12.5%
138.4%
-1.6%
-1.6%
12.8%
95.5%
US
DJIA
-7.4%
-7.4%
12.6%
163.8%
-0.7%
-0.7%
12.9%
116.3%
US
S&P 500
-5.6%
-5.6%
19.0%
186.2%
1.3%
1.3%
19.3%
134.7%
US
NASDAQ 100
-6.7%
-6.7%
27.2%
254.5%
0.1%
0.1%
27.6%
190.7%
Germany
DAX Index
-6.6%
-6.6%
31.3%
196.5%
0.2%
0.2%
31.7%
143.1%
CANADA
TSX 300 Composite Index
-5.7%
-5.7%
3.3%
128.6%
1.2%
1.2%
3.5%
87.5%
France
CAC - 40
-4.5%
-4.5%
26.1%
98.3%
2.4%
2.4%
26.4%
62.6%
Brazil
Sao Paulo SE Bovespa Index
-5.1%
-5.1%
-20.6%
53.6%
1.8%
1.8%
-20.4%
25.9%
Korea
Korea SE Kospi
-9.3%
-9.3%
3.1%
160.8%
-2.7%
-2.7%
3.4%
113.8%
Taiwan
Taiwan SE Weighted Index
-6.3%
-6.3%
9.1%
130.4%
0.5%
0.5%
9.3%
88.9%
Automobile and Parts
19.3%
19.3%
68.1%
360.3%
19.3%
19.3%
68.1%
360.3%
Banks
8.5%
8.5%
69.2%
140.1%
8.5%
8.5%
69.2%
140.1%
Chemicals
31.1%
31.1%
49.8%
317.6%
31.1%
31.1%
49.8%
317.6%
Construction and Materials
13.0%
13.0%
67.7%
564.2%
13.0%
13.0%
67.7%
564.2%
Electricity
-4.0%
-4.0%
20.3%
208.1%
-4.0%
-4.0%
20.3%
208.1%
Fixed Line Telecommunication
7.2%
7.2%
45.8%
117.2%
7.2%
7.2%
45.8%
117.2%
Food Producers
7.0%
7.0%
6.3%
527.1%
7.0%
7.0%
6.3%
527.1%
Non Life Insurance
25.3%
25.3%
61.6%
136.5%
25.3%
25.3%
61.6%
136.5%
Oil and Gas
-0.7%
-0.7%
34.5%
293.4%
-0.7%
-0.7%
34.5%
293.4%
Personal Goods
0.7%
0.7%
51.7%
272.4%
0.7%
0.7%
51.7%
272.4%
-30%
-5%
20%
45%
70%
KSE Sectors
YTD 3-mo
Fixed Income Current Interbank Rates on Money Market
1M
3M
6M
12M
Historic 6-month Interbank Rates YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
Govt. Securities vs. KIBOR
11.50% 11.25%
China
SHIBOR
4.64%
5.51%
5.00%
5.00%
4.43%
4.84%
4.34%
4.36%
Dubai
UAE IBOR
0.45%
0.81%
1.00%
1.18%
1.37%
1.01%
1.12%
1.35%
India
MIBOR
9.52%
10.03%
N.A.
N.A.
Japan
TIBOR
0.15%
0.21%
0.31%
0.32%
0.38%
0.32%
0.33%
0.38%
10.25%
Malaysia
KLIBOR
3.15%
3.31%
3.35%
3.40%
3.26%
3.32%
3.27%
3.26%
10.00%
Pakistan
KIBOR
10.23%
10.11%
10.14%
10.44%
10.32%
10.14%
9.61%
10.19%
9.75%
Sri Lanka
SLIBOR
7.93%
8.50%
8.93%
9.43%
12.20%
9.96%
11.60%
12.36%
9.50%
UK
LIBOR
0.48%
0.52%
0.61%
0.90%
0.83%
0.61%
0.60%
0.78%
9.25%
US
SIBOR
0.16%
0.23%
0.33%
0.55%
0.53%
0.34%
0.39%
0.51%
9.00%
11.00% 10.75% 10.50%
Interbank Feb-13 1W
Current Market Yields on Government Securities
3M
12M
5Y
10Y
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
3.50%
3.38%
4.10%
4.40%
3.00%
3.93%
3.40%
3.01%
India
9.09%
8.95%
8.98%
8.86%
8.27%
8.78%
8.48%
8.27%
India
Japan
0.04%
0.04%
0.18%
0.59%
0.08%
0.05%
0.07%
0.08%
Japan
3.61%
4.12%
Malaysia
2.99%
3.00%
Pakistan
10.06%
10.01%
3.02%
3.00%
3.01%
3.02%
10.26%
10.04%
9.59%
10.13%
Sri Lanka
6.70%
7.06%
9.10%
10.05%
11.01%
7.86%
10.02%
11.12%
UK
0.42%
0.34%
US
0.05%
0.10%
1.62%
2.72%
0.33%
0.38%
0.34%
0.32%
1.50%
2.65%
0.14%
0.11%
0.11%
0.14%
12.46% 12.84%
Govt. Sec. Feb-13 6M
1Y
2Y
12M Yields of Government Securities China
Pakistan Sri Lanka UK US 0%
16
3M
Historic 12-Month Paper Rates
China
Malaysia
1M
3%
6%
9%
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
12%
Markets Information Commodities Total Return
Current Prices
Commodity
Unit
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
DB Commodity Index
USD Excess Return
2.1%
2.1%
-3.5%
33.1%
523.4
S&P Global Commodity Index
USD Total Return
2.9%
2.9%
1.1%
39.3%
4971.5
Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index
USD Total Return
7.0%
7.0%
-2.1%
23.1%
270.9
Coal
USD/Tonne
-14.6%
-14.6%
-17.8%
N.A
74.6
Copper
USc/lbs
-10.9%
-10.9%
-11.1%
64.0%
302.6
Cotton
USc/lbs
10.5%
10.5%
5.7%
101.2%
93.5
Gold
USD/t oz.
6.7%
6.7%
-19.5%
39.1%
1283.4
Palm Oil
USD/Tonne
4.2%
4.2%
10.1%
44.7%
834.6
Sugar
USc/lbs
8.3%
8.3%
0.6%
40.3%
17.8
Wheat
USD/Bushel (60Ibs)
15.2%
15.2%
1.4%
30.9%
7.0
WTI
USD/bbl
3.2%
3.2%
4.5%
104.6%
101.6
Brent Crude
USD/bbl
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.1%
118.9%
107.8
Heating Oil
USd/Gallon
-4.7%
-4.7%
0.6%
N.A
293.2
RBOB Gasoline
USD/Gallon
4.5%
4.5%
-6.3%
107.9%
2.9
Natural Gas
USD/MMBTU
3.3%
3.3%
8.6%
15.8%
4.4
Silver
USD/t Ozs
2.1%
2.1%
-30.3%
52.1%
19.8
DBCI
SPGSCI
DJUBS
115
105
95
85
75 Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
Currencies Change Versus PKR in %
Current Exchange Rates
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
190
Canadian Dollar
CAD
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
CAD - PKR
63.10
Euro
EUR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
EUR - PKR
104.20
Indian Rupee
INR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
INR - PKR
1.6102
Japanese Yen
JPY
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
110.16%
JPY - PKR
1.1769
Pound Sterling
GBP
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
GBP - PKR
114.13
Singaporian Dollar
SGD
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
SGD - PKR
52.85
US Dollar
USD
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
USD - PKR
79.63
EUR
CAD
USD
150 130 110 90 70 Mar-13
17
GBP
170
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Oct-13 Dec-13
Feb-14
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Notes
18
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
Disclaimer This information has been prepared by Lakson Investments for your general information and private use only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned. It should not be considered as an incentive to invest. The securities described in this document may not be eligible for sale or subscription in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This document is not intended for distribution to a person or within a jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted or illegal. This document may not be conveyed to or used by a third party without our express consent. Any other use is not authorized.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and no member of Lakson Investments makes any warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All the information included in this presentation is current when this document is prepared and subject to changes at any time. Any forecast or projection or forward looking statement made in this document is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance, future events or future financial performance of securities, countries, markets or companies. Such statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ.
Lakson Investments may from time to time provide services to the companies and their affiliates mentioned herein. Employees of Lakson Investments or ersons/entities connected to them may from time to time have position in or are holding any of the securities mentioned in this document.
No consideration have been given to and no investigation was made of your investment objectives, financial situation or particulars, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting on such information or opinion or estimate. Lakson Investments expressly disclaims any fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise arising from any reliance placed on this information in this document.
Disclaimer: All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV of Units may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future results. The investors are advised in their own interest to carefully read the Offering Document in particular the investment policy in Clause 2.2 and risk disclosure and warning statements contained in Clause 2.11 and Part 11 respectively in this Offering Document.
Transaction Locations: Islamabad: Contact Person: Mr. Ali Kazmi - Branch Manager Office No.6, Mezzanine floor, Kashmir Plaza, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, Islamabad. UAN: 051.111-111-717 Fax: 051.2870228 Lahore: Contact Person: Mr.Tassawar - Branch Manager 14 Ali Block, 1st Floor New Garden Town, Lahore. Tel: 042.591.1025/26 Rawalpindi: Contact Person: Mr. Tariq Aziz - Branch Manager Suite No.3, 1 st Floor, Majeed Plaza Bank Road, Rawalpindi Tel: 051.551.2251/52 Fax: 051.511.0996 Faisalabad: Contact Person: Mr. Shahbaz Choudhry - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, FM Plaza 15-D, Peoples Colony, Faisalabad Tel: 041.324.1704/07 Fax: 041.855.4453 Sialkot: Contact Person: Mr. Nisar Bhatti - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, Karim Plaza Iqbal Town, Defence Road, Sialkot Tel: 052.324.1704/07 Fax: 052.324.1703
19
Lakson Outlook - March 2014
1954
DECADES OF SEASONED INVESTMENT
Century Insurance
Merit Packaging Limited
Century Paper & Board Mills
Hassan Ali Karabhai Foundation
Lakson Investments Limited. Lakson Square, Building No. 2, Sarwar Shaheed Road, Karachi-74200, Pakistan
UAN T F E
+92.21 111 Lakson +92.21 3569.8000 +92.21 3568.1653
[email protected] www.li.com.pk
