April 2016
Lakson Outlook Economic and Markets Review FMR Lakson Money Market Fund FMR Lakson Income Fund FMR Lakson Equity Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund FMR Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Markets Information
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Table of contents Economic & Markets Review
04 - 05
Lakson Money Market Fund
06
Lakson Income Fund
07
Lakson Equity Fund
08
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund
09
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
10 - 11
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
12
Funds Return History
13
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison
14 - 16
Markets Information
17 - 18
03
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Economic & Markets Review - Pakistan Economy CPI inflation continues to accelerate as it clocked in at 4.2% YoY during April 2016, higher than expectation, on account of greater-than-expected rise in price of food items. On a month-on-month basis, it was up 1.6% as compared to a rise of 0.15% during March. Specifically, food inflation picked up by 3.5% YoY compared to 2.5% YoY last month. Rebound in inflation in the upcoming months is expected to remain modest, especially as we head closer to Ramzan and with recent recovery in oil prices. Other macro indicators also continued their positive trend in Apr'16, where Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) grew by 4.4% YoY in 8MFY16. Private sector credit off-take came in at 10.5% YoY as of March 2016, likely benefitting from monetary easing in CY15 and with working capital finance showing signs of recovery. Long- term finance accelerated to 19.4% YoY, followed by recovery from Trade finance (up 6.4% YoY in March 2016). As per provisional data, tax collection in 10MFY16 came in at PKR 2.3 trillion, up 19% YoY on track with the GoP's target for FY16. Current account balance posted a USD 239 million surplus in March 2016 against surplus of USD 128 million in February 2016 primarily benefiting from low oil prices despite drag from slowdown in remittances. Pakistan's current account deficit (CAD) shrank by 18.5% YoY in the period July 2015 - March 2016 to USD 1.6 billion from USD 1.9 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. The deficit is now 0.7% of GDP as opposed to 1.0% in 9MFY15. The reduction in the deficit can largely be attributed to a 6% YoY growth in remittances and a 5% YoY decline in the import of goods and services. Fixed Income Review In the last T-Bill auction, the SBP rejected all bids amounting to PKR 339 billion on account of higher yield bids. Meanwhile, in the last PIB auction, government raised PKR 136 billion against bids amounting to PKR 193 billion. 3, 5, 10, and 20-year bonds were offered for sale where the cut off yield settled at 6.54%, 6.99%, and 8.18% in 3-year, 5-year, and 10year bonds respectively, while no bids were received in the 20-year tenor. Both the T-Bill and PIB auction result showed an increase in cut off yields, implying a change in the Money Market stance in favor of bottoming out of the interest rate cycle. Equities Markets Review Month of April saw the KSE30 index up by 5.4% to 20,205 points, despite all the political noise, lower corporate profits, continued FPI outflow (USD 18.1 million; USD 46 million exVitol stake purchase in HASCOL) and talk of Super Tax imposition for yet another year. The index was mainly driven by the heavyweight Oil & Gas Exploration (up by 13%), and Commercial Banks (up by 8%), with support from (a) improved global sentiment, (b) potential reclassification of Pakistan in to the MSCI Emerging Market Index, as also indicated by considerable rise in average volumes from 59.3mn shares in Mar'16 to 83.2mn shares in Apr'16. In addition to Oil & Gas Exploration and Banks, Refineries (up 21.5%), Textile Composite (up 11.9%), and Cements (up 2.2%) were among the top contributors to the index in April'16. KSE-30 continues to trade at a discount to regional indices. The forward PE ratio of the KSE 30 in April'16 was 9.2x, compared to 13.2x of Shanghai Composite Index and 15.9x of India's Sensex Index.
Yield Curve 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 1W
2M
6M
2Y
5Y
31-Mar-16
8Y
15Y
29-Apr-16
USD/PKR vs. Forex Reserves Forex Res. (USD bn.) - RHS USD/PKR
105.5
21.0
104.5
20.0
103.5
19.0
18.0
102.5 1-Apr
8-Apr
15-Apr
Market Rates 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1-Apr
10-Apr
6M KIBOR
19-Apr O/N Repo Rate
28-Apr 6M T-Bill
The SBP decided to maintain the discount and policy rate at 6.5% and 6.0%
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
04
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Economic & Markets Review - International Developed Markets Review The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index closed up 0.27% and 0.50% respectively during the month of April'16, while NASDAQ closed down 1.94%. In addition to the earnings season, dovish economic numbers undermined market performance. The Federal Reserve kept the policy rate unchanged and continued to sound prudent in its policy statement, with concerns over slow economic growth weighing in especially with US manufacturing growth posting slower pace in April than forecasts. Apart from the US, trading volumes in European stock markets also plunged significantly, reflecting rising economic and political uncertainty.
Performance of Equities & Commodities
140%
MSCI World Index MSCI EM Index DB Commodity Index
120%
100%
Emerging Markets Review The MSCI Emerging Market Index went up by 0.41% during April'16 on account of (a) recovery in global commodity prices (b) expectation of a slower US interest rate liftoff following Federal Reserve's comments, and (c) appreciation of emerging market currencies against the US Dollar.
80%
60%
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
China's Shanghai Composite Index posted a loss of 2.18% in April'16, with economic concerns continuing to play in. GDP growth for 1QCY16 was reported to be 6.7%, within government's target, but lowest since 2009 financial crisis. The latest Chinese economic data is showing signs of stabilization, especially after a slowdown in the second half of last year. Commodities Review Oil prices continued to rise in April, with Brent and WTI posting 21.5% and 19.8% gains respectively, underpinned by a weaker dollar and hopes of reduction in the global oil glut. Expectation of slowing US crude oil production and three-days strike in Kuwait contributed to the significant comeback of oil prices in April'16. In addition to this, Core Commodity CRB Index gained 8.3% in April'16, thus making significant breakthrough after being under pressure in Jan'16 (-5.33%). On the contrary, Coal prices remained fairly stable (up 0.76%) despite a bounce back from other commodities in April'16
Valuations of International Markets
20 16 12 8 4 DM
US
UK
Japan Canada EM
Brazil Russia India
P/E Multiple
As the OPEC meeting draws closer, anticipations over a consensus output freeze is increasing.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
05
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
China
Lakson Money Market Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Money Market Fund is to provide stable and competitive returns in line with the money markets, exhibiting low volatility consistent with capital preservation by constructing a liquid portfolio of low risk short term investments. Performance Review The Lakson Money Market Fund generated an annualized return of 5.64% against the benchmark return of 5.22% in April 2016. The Fund outpeformed the benchmark by 0.42%. Over the last 12 months the Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 0.20% and generated a return of 5.99%. Asset allocation changed with exposure to T bills dropping to 27% while placements with Banks and DFIs and cash holdings remained stable at 16% and 56% respectively. The higher cash position meant that portfolio WAM continued to decline and was recorded at 23 days. Keeping in mind the emergent pressures on secondary market yields and uncertainty on the duration of the current monetary stance the Fund will continue to stay on the shorter end of the yield curve. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2016 the LMMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 55.0 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LMMF would be higher by PKR 1.41. If the LMMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date annualized return of the LMMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.07%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LMMF.
Asset Allocation
Credit Split
Others 1% Placements with Banks & DFIs 16%
AA 65% AA 66%
T-Bills 27%
AA+ 18% AA+ 8%
Asset Allocation Instruments
Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 % of Total Assets 8% 17% 16% 0% 0% 0% 91% 32% 27% 1% 51% 56% 0% 0% 1%
Placements with Banks & DFIs PIBs T Bills Cash Others including receivables
WAM* Days 15 0 76 0
* Weighted Average Maturity
Non Compliant Investments Investment
Open-End Money Market Fund 4,125 104.8266 Previous Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of Gross Earnings subject to a minimum of 1.00% and maximum of 1.25% of the average annual net assets Front End Load None Back End Load None Launch Date November 13, 2009 Benchmark 50% Average 3M T-bills yield + 50% Average 3M TDR rate of minimum AA rated banks. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 4:00 PM Fund Rating 'AA' by PACRA (31.12.2015) Risk Profile Low Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Performance Govt Sec 16% Govt Sec 27%
Cash 56%
Name of Non - Compliant
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.4.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee
Type of
Value of
Instrument
Investment before Provisioning
Total
Value of
Provisioning Investment Held
% of Net % of Total Assets
Assets
after Provisioning
Morningstar FY16 - YTD April-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD
LMMF 5.56% 5.79% 5.59% 5.56% 5.45% 5.99% 5.70%
Benchmark 5.67% 5.35% 5.35% 5.36% 5.39% 5.79% 5.38%
Simple Annualized FY16 - YTD April-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LMMF 5.53% 5.64% 5.47% 5.45% 5.38% 5.99% 5.60% 8.09% 10.24% 11.88%
Benchmark 5.64% 5.22% 5.24% 5.25% 5.32% 5.79% 5.28% 8.30% 10.51% 12.14%
Please note that the benchmark of the fund was changed in February 2014. Benchmark calculation of tenors which include months prior to February 2014 incorporate the old benchmark as well.
LMMF vs. Benchmark 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Benchmark
Pak Brunei Investment Co. Pak Oman Investment Co.
COI COI
600,000,000 600,000,000
-
Disclosures Leverage as on April 30th, 2016 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Nil. Nil. 23 Days
600,000,000 10.56% 600,000,000 10.56%
10.39% 10.39%
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
LMMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved. Tha Lakson Money Market Fund holds certain non-complaint investments. Before making any investment decision investors should review this document and the latest financial statements.
06
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Lakson Income Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Income Fund is to provide competitive total return through investment in a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities. Investments will be made in a variegated mix of short term, medium term and longer term maturities depending on the assessment by the Investment Team of interest rate trends and prospective returns. Performance Review During April 2016 the LIF generated an annualized return of 3.00% against the benchmark return of 1.21%. The LIF outpeformed the benchmark by 1.79%. Over 10MFY16 the LIF has outperformed the average income fund by 1.49%. Asset allocation remained similar with the only change being the exposure in MTS. As a result the WAM of the portfolio remained stable at 493 days. As market volatility rises and the outlook for monetary policy becomes uncertain the Fund will look to trade its longer tenor positions. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2016 the LIF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 15.7 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LIF would be higher by PKR 0.40. If the LIF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date annualized return of the LIF for FY16 would be higher by 0.13%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LIF.
Asset Allocation
Credit Split
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.4.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark
Open-End Income Fund 4,257 108.0182 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 1.50% 1.50% None November 13, 2009 Average of returns earned by the Income Funds in the industry Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 4:00 PM Fund Rating 'A+' by PACRA (31.12.2015) Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Unrated 2%
Cash 39%
Performance
Placements with Banks/ Other DFIs 2% 25%
Sukuk MTS 1% 2% TFCs T-Bill 5% 11%
Govt Sec 29% Unrated 0.27%
A+ 41%
AA+ 5%
PIB 17%
AA12%
AAA 2%
AA 9%
TFCs/Sukuk Portfolio Name of the Issuer Habib Bank Limited I Bank Al Falah Limited V Askari Bank Limited IV K-Electric AZM Sukuk III Bank Al Habib Limited IV
Issue Date 19-Feb-16 20-Feb-13 23-Dec-11 24-Feb-14 30-Jun-11
Rating % of Total Assets AAA 1.75% AA0.97% AA0.48% AA 1.54% AA 1.32%
Morningstar FY16 - YTD April-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD
LIF 8.55% 3.04% 4.49% 6.42% 6.18% 8.19% 7.22%
Benchmark 7.04% 1.21% 3.42% 5.71% 5.62% 6.27% 5.67%
Simple annualized FY16 - YTD April-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16 - YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
LIF 8.49% 3.00% 4.41% 6.27% 6.09% 8.19% 7.05% 11.40% 12.90% 14.38%
Benchmark 7.00% 1.21% 3.37% 5.59% 5.55% 6.27% 5.56% 11.22% 11.58% 12.05%
LIF vs. Benchmark 124 122 120 118
Asset Allocation
116 114
Instruments Placements with Banks & DFIs PIBs T Bills TFCs Sukuks MTS Cash Others including receivables
Feb-16
Mar-16
15% 18% 11% 5% 1% 0% 49% 1%
% of Total Assets 25% 18% 11% 5% 1% 0% 39% 1%
* Weighted Average Maturity
Disclosures Leverage as on April 30th, 2016 Non Performing Assets WAM of Portfolio
Nil. Nil. 493 Days
Apr-16 24% 17% 11% 5% 1% 1% 39% 1%
WAM* Days 62 1561 0 2477 1030 59 0
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Benchmark
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
LIF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
07
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Lakson Equity Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Equity Fund is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing mainly in equity and related listed securities. Investments will be made in companies of substance, financial strength and demonstrably superior management skills with some exposure given to smaller capitalized value stocks. Performance Review LEF generated an MTD return of 3.53% in April'16, underperforming the benchmark return of 5.42%. On YTD basis, the fund was 4.73% vs -6.34% of the benchmark. LEF maintained overall exposure at a cautious level of 84%. Gains were realised in the upswing in prices as result announcements generated interest. However, recovery in commodity prices in the April was a suprise which caused the benchmark heavyweights to rally and surpass fund returns. LEF trimmed exposure in Cements, parking the proceeds in Banks, Oil and Power Generation. Reshuffling of Chemicals took place as fundamentals changed for the sector. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2016 the LEF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 19.9 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LEF would be higher by PKR 0.75. If the LEF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LEF for FY16 would be higher by 0.00%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LEF.
Top 10 Holdings
Asset Allocation
Engro Corporation Limited Lucky Cement Limited DG Khan Cement Limited Pioneer Cement Limited Pakistan State Oil Limited United Bank Limited Oil & Gas Development Co Hub Power Co Habib Bank Limited MCB Bank Limited
6.13% 5.69% 5.59% 5.19% 4.59% 4.33% 4.08% 4.02% 3.90% 3.52%
Others 2% Cash 16%
Equity 82%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.4.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor Management Fee Front End Load Back End Load Launch Date Benchmark Dealing Days Cut-Off Time Risk Profile Asset Manager Rating
Open-End Equity Fund 2,906 109.2504 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co. 2.00% 3.00% None November 13, 2009 KSE-30 Index Mon-Fri 4:00 PM High Risk AM2- by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Performance
LEF
KSE-30
4.73% 3.53% 10.78% 8.80% 4.49% 6.54% 6.23% 87.00% 158.62% 215.35%
-6.34% 5.42% 9.92% 11.15% -1.19% -5.84% 4.79% 38.01% 72.46% 111.30%
FY16 - YTD April-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16- YTD 3 YEAR 5 YEAR SINCE INCEPTION
*Returns based on last working day NAV
Sectorwise Exposure Sectorwise Exposure
Mar-16
Apr-16
Chemicals Const. & Mat. Oil & Gas Electricity Comm Banks Others
11.32% 24.87% 15.31% 7.52% 10.32% 12.90%
11.44% 23.16% 15.58% 8.36% 12.97% 12.41%
Others
Chemicals
LEF vs. Benchmark 300
Commercial Banks
Const. & Mat.
Electricity
200
Oil & Gas
150 100
Asset Allocation (% of Total Assets)
50
Apr-16 84% 0% 16% 1%
LEF
Apr-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
KSE-100
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
0
Apr-15
Mar-16 82% 0% 16% 2%
May-15
Feb-16 83% 0% 15% 2%
Mar-15
Equities T-Bills Cash Others
250
KSE-30
Pakistan vs. Global Markets Country Pakistan India Malaysia Dubai USA USA
Index KSE-100 BSE Sensex 30 FTSE KLCI DFM General DJIA S&P 500
* Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
1M Return 4.8% 1.0% -2.6% 4.1% 0.5% 0.3%
P/E 9.6 19.7 18.5 11.7 16.9 19.2
Div. Yield 6.0% 1.6% 3.1% 4.1% 2.6% 2.2%
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Disclosures Leverage as on Apr 30, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
08
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Lakson Tactical Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Formerly:Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and commodities. Performance Review During the month of April 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund generated an absolute return of 0.04% against the benchmark return of 1.66%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 4.25% over 10MFY16. Allocation has been taken in T bills (37%) and PIBs (29%), while Cash (34%) has been kept in USD which has allowed the Fund to outperform the benchmark by a significant margin. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2016 the LAAGCF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.3 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAGCF would be higher by PKR 0.76. If the LAAGCF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAAGCF for FY16 would be higher by 0.06%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAAGCF.
Global Commodities (DB Balanced Commodity ETF)
Asset Allocation
Cash 34%
Placements with Banks & DFIs T-Bills PIBs Global Commodities Cash
PIBs 6%
PIBs 29%
Commodities Exposure
Benchmark*
LAAGCF
FY16-YTD April-16 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY15-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
5.27% 0.04% 0.40% 1.24% 1.97% 5.05% 2.00% 19.18% NA 30.80%
1.02% 1.66% 2.57% 3.08% 1.84% 1.47% 2.99% 6.19% NA 21.06%
* The new Benchmark is effective from September 10, 2013.
Zinc 6.79%
LTF vs. Benchmark
Benchmark
Mar-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Aug-15
May-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Jun-14
Aug-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jun-13
Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 43% 43% 37% 34% 34% 29% 0% 0% 0% 24% 24% 34%
Sugar 9.01%
Aug-13
Soybeans 8.29%
Apr-13
Corn 7.25%
Jan-13
Apr-16 32.11% 28.82% 19.89% 19.18%
125 123 121 119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99
Nov-12
Gold 16.09%
Disclosures Leverage as on April 30, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Fund Performance T bills 37%
Asset Allocation Instruments
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 222 109.4527 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAGCF is calculated Benchmark through a 30:70 combination of DBLC - OY Balanced Index and 6month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Jun-12
Sectorwise Exposure as of Agriculture Energy Precious Metals Base Metals
Weight as of Apr-16 16.09 9.01 8.29 7.25 6.79 7.04 6.25 6.50 6.37 6.14 5.75 3.80 3.16 2.62 2.49 2.46
Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.4.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Sep-12
Commodity Gold Sugar #11 Soybeans Corn Zinc RBOB Gasoline Aluminium Brent Crude Heating Oil Copper - Grade A Light Crude Silver Natural Gas Wheat-Mineapolis Wht Wheat (Kansas Wheat) Wheat
Fund Facts
LAAGCF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
09
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and developed markets securities. Performance Review During the month of April 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund generated an absolute return of -0.63% against the benchmark return of 0.72%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 3.47% over 10MFY16. Allocation has been taken in T bills (23%), PIBs (49%) and Developed Market Equities (26%). Exposure in equities has been focused on US indices which offer a superior risk/return profile to other Developed Markets. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2016 the LAADMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 2.8 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAADMF would be higher by PKR 1.12. If the LAADMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAADMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.04%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAADMF.
Developed Markets Equities Apr-16 % of ETF's Assets Apple Inc 3.36% Microsoft Corp 2.43% Exxon Mobil Corp 1.93% Johnson & Johnson 1.66% General Electric Co 1.65% Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.48% Facebook Inc 1.46% AT&T Inc 1.34% Procter & Gamble Co/Th1.28% Wells Fargo & Co 1.24% Vanguard S&P 500
Asset Allocation Cash 2% T-Bills 23%
DM Equities 26%
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 301 121.5321 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 15% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 1.25% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAADMF is calculated Benchmark through a 30:70 combination of MSCI World Index and 6-month T-Bills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (31.03.2016)
Fund Performance
PIBs 49%
Weight 94.97% 1.91% 1.13% 0.88% 0.59%
Sectors United States Ireland United Kingdom Switzerland Singapore
Disclosures
Weight 97.38% 1.22% 0.48% 0.48% 0.31%
Benchmark
2.23% 0.72% 3.10% 3.02% 0.48% 1.55% 1.14% 21.32% NA 51.45%
Feb-16
Jul-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Mar-15
May-15
Oct-14
Dec-14
Aug-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-13
Vanguard S&P 500 (As of Apr-16)
QQQ ETF (As of Apr-16)
Aug-13
Placements with Banks & DFIs T-Bills PIBs Developed Markets (DM) Equities Cash
Nov-12
Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 24% 24% 23% 50% 49% 49% 25% 26% 26% 1% 1% 2%
Jun-12
141 139 137 135 133 131 129 127 125 123 121 119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99
Sep-12
Instruments
Leverage as on April 30, 2016 Non Performing Assets
5.70% -0.63% 1.34% 3.24% 1.33% 5.79% 1.98% 25.5% NA 46.88%
LAADMF vs. Benchmark
Asset Allocation
Country United States China Singapore United Kingdom Netherlands
LAADMF Benchmark
FY16-YTD April-16 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months CY16-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
Jan-13
% of ETF's Assets Apple Inc 10.39% Microsoft Corp 7.89% Amazon.com Inc 6.21% Facebook Inc 5.40% Alphabet Inc 4.79% Alphabet Inc 4.14% Comcast Corp 2.96% Intel Corp 2.86% Cisco Systems Inc 2.77% Gilead Sciences Inc 2.41%
QQQ ETF
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.4.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
LAADMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
Nil. Nil.
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
10
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
PowerShares QQQ ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type QQQ US Equity DES and click on Allocations
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Developed Markets): Allocations
Type VUSD LN Equity DES and click on Allocations
11
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund
MUFAPs Recommended Format
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund is to provide longterm capital appreciation by investing in a mix of domestic debt and emerging market securities. Performance Review During the month of April 2016 the Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund generated an absolute return of 0.06% against the benchmark return of 0.38%. The Fund has outperformed the benchmark by 3.70% over 10MFY16. Allocation has been taken in T bills (53%) and PIBs (25%), while Cash (22%) has been kept in USD which has allowed the Fund to outperform the benchmark by a significant margin. WWF Disclosure As of March 31st, 2016 the LAAEMF has maintained provisions against Workers' Welfare Fund's liability to the tune of PKR 1.0 million. If the same were not made the NAV per unit of the LAAEMF would be higher by PKR 1.11. If the LAAEMF would not have made the WWF provisions during FY16, the year to date return of the LAAEMF for FY16 would be higher by 0.03%. For details investors are advised to read the Note 8.1 of the latest Financial Statements of the LAAEMF.
Emerging Market Equities
As of Apr-16
Security
% of Assets
Samsung Electronics Co Taiwan Semiconductor Tencent Holdings Ltd China Mobile Ltd Naspers Ltd China Construction Bank Industrial & Commercia Alibaba Group Holding L Hon Hai Precision Indus Infosys Ltd
Asset Allocation
3.30% 3.13% 2.89% 1.92% 1.50% 1.48% 1.09% 1.04% 0.94% 0.91%
Cash 22%
Fund Facts Fund Type Category Net Assets (PKR Mil.) NAV (30.4.2016) Pricing Mechanism Trustee Auditor
Open-End Asset Allocation Fund 100 113.2186 Forward Day CDC Pakistan Limited BDO Ebrahim & Co. 10% of the gross earnings of the Scheme, calculated on a daily basis. The fee is Management Fee subject to a minimum of 0.75% and maximum of 2% of the average annual net assets of the Scheme. Front End Load 2.50% Back End Load None Launch Date October 10, 2011 Benchmark performance of the LAAEMF is Benchmark calculated through a 30:70 combination of MSCI Emerging Markets Index and 6-month TBills. Dealing Days Mon - Fri Cut-Off Time 04:00 PM Risk Profile Medium Risk Asset Manager Rating AM2- by PACRA (31.03.2016)
T-Bills 53%
Fund Performance
LAAEMF Benchmark
FY16-YTD April-16 2 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Months CY15-YTD 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
PIBs 25%
3.40% 0.06% 0.28% 0.73% 1.16% 3.37% 1.26% 13.43% NA 29.37%
-0.30% 0.38% 3.66% 3.89% 1.31% -2.18% 2.53% 10.21% NA 33.14%
Asset Allocation LAAEMF vs. Benchmark
Disclosures Leverage as on April 30, 2016 Non Performing Assets
Nil. Nil.
Benchmark
Jan-16
Mar-16
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-15
Aug-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Jun-13
Weight 14.68% 8.33% 7.08% 7.04% 5.84%
Sep-13
Sectors Banks Semiconductors Oil&Gas Telecommunications Internet
Apr-13
Weight 18.97% 15.37% 11.62% 8.08% 7.21%
Feb-13
Country China South Korea Taiwan India Brazil
Jun-12
EEM Composition (As of Apr-16)
127 125 123 121 119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99
Nov-12
Placements with Banks & DFIs T-Bills PIBs Emerging Markets (EM) Equities Cash
Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 % of Total Assets 0% 0% 0% 52% 53% 53% 24% 25% 25% 0% 0% 0% 24% 22% 22%
Sep-12
Instruments
LAAEMF
Investment Committee Babar Ali Lakhani Mustafa O. Pasha, CFA Sana Abdullah, CFA Syed Saifullah Kazmi Maryam Hidayatallah
Chairman
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
12
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Funds Return History The periodic returns for the funds have been presented below as per SECP's SCD Circular No. 16 dated July 03, 2014. The returns presented below are: Yearly returns for the last five fiscal years and Absolute returns for every fiscal year since inception The returns have been annualized for money market and income schemes where the performance evaluation is less than one year.
Last 3 and 5 Fiscal Years Lakson Money Market Fund (LMMF) Fund Benchmark
FY'11
FY'12
FY'13
FY'14
FY'15
11.69% 11.76%
11.19% 11.31%
8.76% 9.14%
7.90% 8.50%
8.57% 8.45%
11.50% 10.82%
11.57% 8.86%
9.21% 9.17%
8.38% 8.31%
14.17% 12.64%
20.44% 28.53%
9.74% 10.45%
40.02% 52.20%
32.15% 25.96%
23.93% 5.67%
6.42% 10.63%
10.52% 13.45%
9.64% 12.94%
7.76% 5.34%
5.85% 7.25%
3.44% 7.89%
4.24% 7.47%
8.86% -1.02%
6.23% 9.82%
5.46% 8.50%
6.40% 10.01%
4.96% 3.36%
Lakson Income Fund (LIF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Equity Fund (LEF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund (LAADMF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Global Commodities Fund (LAAGCF) Fund Benchmark
Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund (LAAEMF) Fund Benchmark
Since Inception Absolute Returns LMMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
FY'10 6.77% 6.66%
FY'11 19.25% 19.21%
FY'12 32.63% 32.73%
FY'13 44.25% 44.86%
FY'14 55.65% 57.17%
FY'15 68.98% 70.45%
LIF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
7.16% 4.59%
19.49% 15.90%
33.35% 26.20%
45.63% 37.77%
57.84% 49.22%
80.20% 68.08%
LEF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
-0.66% 7.32%
19.65% 37.94%
31.30% 52.35%
83.84% 107.12%
142.95% 160.89%
201.91% 200.87%
LAADMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
6.42% 10.63%
17.62% 25.51%
28.95% 41.75%
38.96% 49.33%
LAAGCF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
5.85% 7.25%
9.49% 15.71%
14.13% 24.36%
24.25% 23.09%
LAAEMF vs Benchmark Fund Benchmark
6.23% 9.82%
12.03% 19.15%
19.20% 31.08%
25.11% 35.49%
DISCLAIMER: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the Offering Document to understand the investment policies and risks involved.
13
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of May 04, 2016 Income Funds ABL Income Fund Atlas Income Fund Faysal Financial Sector Opportunity Fund Faysal Savings Growth Fund First Habib Income Fund HBL Income Fund JS Income Fund Lakson Income Fund MCB DCF Income Fund. NAFA Financial Sector Income Fund NAFA Income Fund NAFA Income Opportunity Fund NAFA Savings Plus Fund NIT - Income Fund Pakistan Income Fund PICIC Income Fund UBL Income Opportunity Fund (UIOF) Islamic Income Funds ABL Islamic Income Fund Al Ameen Islamic Sovereign Fund Alfalah GHP Islamic Income Fund Askari Islamic Income Fund Atlas Islamic Income Fund Faysal Islamic Savings Growth Fund JS Islamic Government Securities Fund MCB Islamic Income Fund Meezan Islamic Income Fund Meezan Sovereign Fund NAFA Riba Free Savings Fund Pak Oman Advantage Islamic Income Fund
Annualized Returns (%) 30 Days 1.99 4.21 1.19 2.85 (0.49) 3.62 2.66 3.48 1.92 5.52 4.80 4.86 5.60 3.00 2.64 1.16 5.78
90 Days 4.87 5.86 4.85 6.08 3.20 5.00 5.86 6.15 4.33 6.42 6.23 6.34 6.11 5.22 4.37 6.68 5.89
180 Days 5.25 5.62 3.81 5.28 3.70 4.53 5.81 6.23 4.36 6.18 6.43 6.38 6.08 5.19 4.12 6.74 6.42
270 Days 6.45 7.34 6.24 7.20 5.63 5.80 5.41 7.59 5.83 6.39 6.89 7.06 6.15 5.60 5.90 7.64 6.49
365 Days 6.17 7 5.06 6.78 5.06 6.45 5.48 8.3 5.74 7.05 7.12 8.2 6.48 5.4 5.78 6.6 6.12
4.07 4.40 1.92 2.28 5.14 4.94 4.33 4.26 3.85 4.79 5.23 4.00
5.79 5.58 5.20 4.39 5.57 6.06 5.26 5.41 5.14 4.67 5.36 6.69
5.73 3.92 4.54 4.73 4.99 6.51 3.85 5.16 5.65 5.58 5.48 5.12
5.78 3.93 4.59 5.20 4.94 5.57 3.14 5.02 6.02 4.90 5.39 4.37
6.13 4.42 4.74 5.09 5.36 5.91 3.75 5.31 6.23 5.37 5.81 3.74
5.02 4.99 4.71 4.92 5.55 6.02 5.71 3.87 5.20 5.01 4.27 5.24 5.62 4.87 5.42 5.83 5.49 5.36 5.37 4.84 4.53
5.09 5.02 4.73 4.96 5.11 5.70 5.38 4.13 5.16 4.97 4.45 5.44 5.46 4.98 5.73 6.26 5.50 5.38 5.42 4.84 4.52
5.27 5.13 4.92 5.12 5.08 5.66 5.37 4.06 5.33 5.00 4.65 5.45 5.38 5.26 5.65 6.09 5.62 5.53 5.86 4.95 4.81
5.59 5.39 5.21 5.41 5.39 5.99 5.69 4.50 5.54 5.33 5.04 5.73 5.53 5.66 5.70 6.13 5.82 5.92 6.10 5.25 5.07
6.78 5.77 5.87 6.05 6.39 6.47 6.66 4.86 6.01 5.7 6.05 6.61 5.93 6.3 5.93 6.8 6.65 7.72 6.3 5.81 5.28
4.46 3.21 4.34
4.64 3.41 4.26
4.54 3.98 4.29
4.64 4.29 4.38
4.61 4.35 4.81
Money Market Funds ABL Cash Fund AKD Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Cash Fund Alfalah GHP Money Market Fund Askari Sovereign Cash Fund Atlas Money Market Fund Atlas Sovereign Liquid Fund BMA Empress Cash Fund Faysal Money Market Fund First Habib Cash Fund HBL Money Market Fund JS Cash Fund Lakson Money Market Fund MCB Cash Management Optimizer NAFA Government Securities Liquid Fund NAFA Money Market Fund Pakistan Cash Management Fund PICIC Cash Fund PIML Daily Reserve Fund UBL Liquidity Plus Fund UBL Money Market Fund Islamic Money Market Funds Al Ameen Islamic Cash Fund HBL Islamic Money Market Fund Meezan Cash Fund
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
14
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of May 04, 2016 Aggressive Income Funds AKD Aggressive Income Fund Alfalah GHP Income Multiplier Fund Askari High Yield Scheme BMA Chundrigar Road Savings Fund Faysal Income & Growth Fund Pakistan Income Enhancement Fund United Growth & Income Fund Islamic Aggressive Income Funds Al Ameen Islamic Aggressive Income Fund NAFA Islamic Aggressive Income Fund Equity Funds ABL Stock Fund AKD Opportunity Fund Alfalah GHP Alpha Fund Alfalah GHP Stock Fund Askari Equity Fund Atlas Stock Market Fund First Capital Mutual Fund First Habib Stock Fund HBL Stock Fund JS Growth Fund JS Large Cap Fund JS Value Fund Lakson Equity Fund MCB Pakistan Stock Market Fund NAFA Stock Fund National Investment Unit Trust PICIC Energy Fund PICIC Stock Fund PIML Value Equity Fund United Stock Advantage Fund Islamic Equity Funds ABL Islamic Stock Fund Al Ameen Shariah Stock Fund Al Meezan Mutual Fund Alfalah GHP Islamic Stock Fund HBL Islamic Stock Fund JS Islamic Fund Meezan Islamic Fund PIML Islamic Equity Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days 4.75 2.79 2.18 2.97 4.55 0.81 3.28
90 Days 11.14 5.77 7.29 10.15 9.11 4.56 14.02
180 Days 10.16 6.47 7.04 10.40 6.27 4.76 10.02
270 Days 10.26 7.58 8.31 11.26 8.71 7.24 10.12
365 Days 6.53 6.09 6.24 8.53 7.85 6.37 8.66
2.87 5.67
8.96 6.39
7.74 7.00
7.07 7.34
7.37 7.86
3.64 8.35 3.20 3.29 4.13 4.58 3.80 3.48 2.66 2.62 0.72 2.66 2.98 4.02 5.73 2.82 2.32 3.24 1.49 3.01
6.50 11.31 3.79 3.92 2.24 6.82 7.15 6.90 4.40 2.05 1.08 2.33 7.29 5.11 9.09 3.50 3.79 6.37 4.18 2.03
0.31 (3.23) 4.66 4.68 (6.95) 2.64 0.71 0.85 (1.76) 1.19 0.43 3.67 4.60 0.01 5.15 1.90 (5.19) (0.74) 0.64 2.44
(0.59) (3.84) 1.99 2.12 (13.22) (4.72) (4.47) (6.28) (6.85) (5.22) N/A 0.57 (0.55) (5.71) (0.11) (1.70) (9.54) (3.25) (4.23) (0.06)
5.38 33.42 11.85 13.06 -8.81 0.56 2.67 -0.32 -0.48 2.1 2.07 7.9 6.46 3.01 8.05 6.36 -9.35 5.18 6.7 10.18
1.97 3.33 3.06 2.54 1.57 0.63 3.42 0.76
4.44 4.80 7.94 4.67 3.04 2.59 7.69 4.38
(2.12) 4.31 3.91 7.90 (1.87) 2.85 4.92 1.42
(4.14) (0.21) 1.33 5.78 (7.67) (4.70) 2.16 (2.05)
1.92 11.15 9.76 16.83 -1.62 5.81 12.43 8.27
2.18 1.82 3.63 1.93 1.54
(1.04) 2.91 5.80 3.43 (0.01)
(7.72) (0.94) 3.49 (0.19) 0.63
(0.57) (3.64) 0.16 (3.65) (0.49)
8.22 2.33 5.66 2.27 4.24
1.85 2.21
4.46 5.71
(0.71) 3.76
(4.29) 2.88
0.73 9.44
Balanced Funds Faysal Balanced Growth Fund HBL Multi Asset Fund NAFA Multi Asset Fund Pakistan Capital Market Fund Unit Trust of Pakistan Islamic Balanced Funds First Habib Islamic Balanced Fund Meezan Balanced Fund
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
15
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Mutual Funds Performance Comparison Position as of May 04, 2016 Asset Allocation Funds Alfalah GHP Value Fund Askari Asset Allocation Fund Faysal Asset Allocation Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Developed Markets Fund Lakson Asset Allocation Emerging Markets Fund Lakson Tactical Fund MCB Pakistan Asset Allocation Fund MCB Pakistan Frequent Payout Fund NAFA Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Advantage Asset Allocation Fund UBL Asset Allocation Fund Islamic Asset Allocation Funds Al Ameen Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Askari Islamic Asset Allocation Fund NAFA Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pak Oman Islamic Asset Allocation Fund Pakistan Int'l Element Islamic Asset Allocation Fund
Absolute Returns (%) 30 Days 3.47 3.15 5.01 (0.75) 0.03 0.01 0.48 0.54 4.09 1.30 0.48
90 Days 4.56 1.47 2.00 3.07 0.72 1.22 0.99 1.21 5.62 4.42 3.07
180 Days 6.20 (7.89) (5.67) 1.36 1.21 2.09 (0.64) N/A 3.78 1.32 3.51
270 Days 4.40 (12.37) (8.14) 5.15 2.80 4.29 (0.76) N/A 0.17 0.41 4.18
365 Days 14.47 -7.1 0.28 5.75 3.21 4.89 0.91 N/A 7.2 7.99 6.59
0.69 2.70 2.04 1.51 1.75
2.82 1.06 5.34 5.46 3.71
2.92 (4.73) 4.05 3.13 0.52
2.50 (8.74) 1.92 3.47 (5.66)
8.21 -6 10.83 12.95 -0.4
0.58 1.08
1.68 0.87
2.64 0.03
3.20 (2.59)
5.22 1.02
1.78 2.08
2.27 3.41
0.75 (0.65)
(1.43) (4.68)
3.22 1.86
Capital Protected Funds HBL Mustahekum Sarmaya Fund 1 Pakistan Sarmaya Mehfooz Fund
Islamic Capital Protected Funds NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund I NAFA Islamic Principal Protected Fund II
N/A = Not Available
Source: MUFAP
16
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Markets Information Equities Total Return in PKR and % Markets
Index
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
Total Return in USD and % YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yrWorld
World
MSCI All Country World Index
1.0%
7.6%
-7.6%
13.0%
1.0%
7.6%
-7.6%
13.0%
Developed
MSCI World Index
0.5%
7.0%
-6.1%
20.3%
0.5%
7.0%
-6.1%
20.3%
Emerging
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
5.8%
13.2%
-19.8%
-30.2%
5.8%
13.2%
-19.8%
-30.2%
Europe
MSCI Europe Index
-1.4%
5.6%
-12.6%
-9.4%
-1.4%
5.6%
-12.6%
-9.4%
China
CSI 300
-15.4%
7.2%
-33.5%
-1.1%
-15.4%
7.2%
-33.5%
-1.1%
Dubai
DFM
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
141.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
141.3%
India
BSE Sensex 30
-2.0%
3.0%
-5.2%
33.8%
-2.0%
3.0%
-5.2%
33.8%
Japan
Nikkei 225
-12.4%
-4.9%
-14.6%
69.2%
-12.4%
-4.9%
-14.6%
69.2%
Malaysia
FTSE Bursa
-1.2%
0.3%
-8.0%
9.0%
-1.2%
0.3%
-8.0%
9.0%
Pakistan
KSE 100
5.8%
10.9%
2.9%
187.9%
5.8%
10.9%
2.9%
187.9%
Sri Lanka
Colombo All Share
-5.5%
2.8%
-9.2%
-11.7%
-5.5%
2.8%
-9.2%
-11.7%
UK
FTSE 100
0.0%
2.6%
-10.3%
2.8%
0.0%
2.6%
-10.3%
2.8%
US
DJIA
2.0%
7.9%
-0.4%
38.7%
2.0%
7.9%
-0.4%
38.7%
US
S&P 500
1.0%
6.4%
-1.0%
51.5%
1.0%
6.4%
-1.0%
51.5%
US
NASDAQ 100
-5.5%
1.5%
-1.7%
80.6%
-5.5%
1.5%
-1.7%
80.6%
Germany
DAX Index
-6.6%
2.5%
-12.4%
33.6%
-6.6%
2.5%
-12.4%
33.6%
CANADA
TSX 300 Composite Index
7.2%
8.8%
-8.4%
0.0%
7.2%
8.8%
-8.4%
0.0%
France
CAC - 40
-4.5%
0.3%
-12.2%
7.8%
-4.5%
0.3%
-12.2%
7.8%
Brazil
Sao Paulo SE Bovespa Index
24.4%
33.4%
-4.1%
-18.5%
24.4%
33.4%
-4.1%
-18.5%
Korea
Korea SE Kospi
1.7%
4.3%
-6.3%
-9.0%
1.7%
4.3%
-6.3%
-9.0%
Taiwan
Taiwan SE Weighted Index
0.5%
2.9%
-14.7%
-7.0%
0.5%
2.9%
-14.7%
-7.0%
Automobile and Parts
-5.1%
-5.2%
-5.3%
437.9%
-5.1%
-5.2%
-5.3%
437.9%
Banks
-2.6%
5.8%
-11.5%
90.5%
-2.6%
5.8%
-11.5%
90.5%
Chemicals
-7.5%
-0.3%
-9.0%
79.3%
-7.5%
-0.3%
-9.0%
79.3%
Construction and Materials
13.7%
10.9%
22.7%
873.6%
13.7%
10.9%
22.7%
873.6%
Electricity
-3.0%
-0.5%
-6.9%
184.6%
-3.0%
-0.5%
-6.9%
184.6%
Fixed Line Telecommunication
-12.7%
-1.7%
-30.0%
-16.4%
-12.7%
-1.7%
-30.0%
-16.4%
Food Producers
-1.0%
5.5%
-11.2%
141.2%
-1.0%
5.5%
-11.2%
141.2%
-30%
-5%
20%
45%
70%
KSE Sectors
Non Life Insurance
-1.5%
1.4%
9.8%
180.6%
-1.5%
1.4%
9.8%
180.6%
Oil and Gas
18.0%
26.6%
-14.6%
16.8%
18.0%
26.6%
-14.6%
16.8%
0.1%
-1.8%
-0.2%
168.3%
0.1%
-1.8%
-0.2%
168.3%
Personal Goods
YTD 3-mo
Fixed Income Current Interbank Rates on Money Market
Govt. Securities vs. KIBOR
Historic 6-month Interbank Rates
1M
3M
6M
12M
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
8.00% 7.75% 7.50%
China
SHIBOR
2.85%
2.91%
2.93%
3.04%
3.00%
2.96%
3.20%
3.99%
Dubai
UAE IBOR
0.64%
1.06%
1.29%
1.62%
1.26%
1.27%
1.06%
0.96%
India
MIBOR
7.68%
7.80%
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Japan
TIBOR
0.03%
0.06%
0.11%
0.14%
0.19%
0.17%
0.23%
0.26%
6.75% 6.50%
Interbank Apr16
7.25% 7.00%
Malaysia
KLIBOR
3.37%
3.69%
3.80%
3.89%
3.85%
3.83%
3.83%
3.80%
6.25%
Pakistan
KIBOR
6.50%
6.35%
6.36%
6.68%
6.37%
6.36%
6.65%
8.08%
6.00% 5.75%
Sri Lanka
SLIBOR
9.29%
9.73%
10.20%
10.68%
8.87%
9.19%
7.74%
7.65%
UK
LIBOR
0.51%
0.59%
0.74%
1.02%
0.74%
0.74%
0.74%
0.71%
US
SIBOR
0.44%
0.64%
0.90%
1.23%
0.88%
0.89%
0.65%
0.50%
5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 1W
Current Market Yields on Government Securities China
Historic 12-Month Paper Rates
3M
12M
5Y
10Y
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
2-yr
2.21%
2.32%
2.76%
2.92%
2.27%
2.24%
2.28%
2.82%
India
8.31%
6.88%
#N/A
7.44%
7.13%
7.10%
7.36%
7.86%
Japan
-0.29%
-0.30%
-0.20%
-0.08%
-0.22%
-0.25%
-0.11%
-0.06%
Malaysia
2.48%
2.59%
3.49%
3.90%
2.70%
2.65%
2.95%
3.14%
Pakistan
6.10%
6.18%
7.21%
8.41%
6.17%
6.16%
6.45%
7.86%
Sri Lanka
9.73%
10.68%
NA
NA
9.34%
9.69%
8.10%
7.98%
UK
0.51%
0.48%
0.98%
1.60%
0.39%
0.40%
0.46%
0.43%
US
0.21%
0.55%
1.29%
1.83%
0.55%
0.56%
0.41%
0.28%
Govt. Sec. Apr 16
1M
3M
6M
1Y
2Y
12M Yields of Government Securities China India Japan Malaysia Pakistan Sri Lanka UK US 0%
17
3%
6%
9%
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
12%
Markets Information Commodities Total Return 3-mo
1-yr
Current Prices
Commodity
Unit
YTD
5-yr
DB Commodity Index
USD Excess Return
9.1%
13.6%
-19.8%
-51.8%
301.4
S&P Global Commodity Index
USD Total Return
7.4%
13.2%
-29.3%
-59.5%
2331.0
Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index
USD Total Return
9.0%
10.8%
-17.4%
-51.1%
Coal
USD/Tonne
0.3%
4.0%
-18.2%
N.A
172.5 50.8
Copper
USc/lbs
6.7%
10.3%
-21.0%
-45.3%
227.9
Cotton
USc/lbs
0.8%
4.3%
-6.4%
-64.3%
63.8
Gold
USD/t oz.
21.7%
15.6%
9.1%
-17.1%
1290.5
Palm Oil
USD/Tonne
17.9%
16.0%
13.4%
-42.3%
656.8
Sugar
USc/lbs
6.0%
23.0%
24.5%
-30.9%
16.2
Wheat
USD/Bushel (60Ibs)
1.7%
-0.3%
2.4%
-37.9%
4.8
WTI
USD/bbl
24.0%
36.6%
-23.0%
-59.7%
45.9
Brent Crude
USD/bbl
29.1%
38.5%
-27.9%
-61.8%
48.1
Heating Oil
USd/Gallon
25.2%
30.6%
-30.3%
N.A
137.8
RBOB Gasoline
USD/Gallon
25.1%
43.7%
-22.7%
-54.3%
1.6
Natural Gas
USD/MMBTU
-6.8%
-5.2%
-20.8%
-53.6%
2.2
Silver
USD/t Ozs
28.9%
24.9%
10.3%
-63.4%
17.8
120
DBCI
SPGSCI
DJUBS
110
100
90
80
70
60
50 Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Currencies Change Versus PKR in %
Current Exchange Rates
YTD
3-mo
1-yr
5-yr
190
GBP
EUR
CAD
USD
170
Canadian Dollar
CAD
0.00%
0.00%
-6.49%
-11.97%
CAD - PKR
78.87
Euro
EUR
0.00%
0.00%
2.02%
-6.97%
EUR - PKR
116.61
Indian Rupee
INR
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-6.37%
INR - PKR
1.7941
Japanese Yen
JPY
0.00%
0.00%
1.88%
55.21%
JPY - PKR
0.8692
Pound Sterling
GBP
0.00%
0.00%
1.22%
11.91%
GBP - PKR
158.28
Singaporian Dollar
SGD
0.00%
0.00%
-5.28%
5.41%
SGD - PKR
72.89
90
US Dollar
USD
0.00%
0.00%
2.71%
23.31%
USD - PKR
104.48
70 Apr-15 Jun-15
150 130 110
18
Jul-15
Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
Disclaimer This information has been prepared by Lakson Investments for your general information and private use only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned. It should not be considered as an incentive to invest. The securities described in this document may not be eligible for sale or subscription in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This document is not intended for distribution to a person or within a jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted or illegal. This document may not be conveyed to or used by a third party without our express consent. Any other use is not authorized.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and no member of Lakson Investments makes any warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All the information included in this presentation is current when this document is prepared and subject to changes at any time. Any forecast or projection or forward looking statement made in this document is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance, future events or future financial performance of securities, countries, markets or companies. Such statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ.
Lakson Investments may from time to time provide services to the companies and their affiliates mentioned herein. Employees of Lakson Investments or ersons/entities connected to them may from time to time have position in or are holding any of the securities mentioned in this document.
No consideration have been given to and no investigation was made of your investment objectives, financial situation or particulars, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting on such information or opinion or estimate. Lakson Investments expressly disclaims any fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise arising from any reliance placed on this information in this document.
Disclaimer: All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV of Units may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future results. The investors are advised in their own interest to carefully read the Offering Document in particular the investment policy in Clause 2.2 and risk disclosure and warning statements contained in Clause 2.11 and Part 11 respectively in this Offering Document.
Transaction Locations: Islamabad: Contact Person: Mr. Ali Kazmi - Branch Manager Office No.6, Mezzanine floor, Kashmir Plaza, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, Islamabad. UAN: 051.111-111-717 Fax: 051.2870228 Lahore: Contact Person: Mr. Haider Abbas 14 Ali Block, 1st Floor New Garden Town, Lahore. Tel: 042.591.1025/26 Rawalpindi: Contact Person: Mr. Tariq Aziz - Branch Manager Suite No.3, 1 st Floor, Majeed Plaza Bank Road, Rawalpindi Tel: 051.551.2251/52 Fax: 051.511.0996 Faisalabad: Contact Person: Mr. Shahbaz Choudhry - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, FM Plaza 15-D, Peoples Colony, Faisalabad Tel: 041.324.1704/07 Fax: 041.855.4453 Sialkot: Contact Person: Mr. Nisar Bhatti - Branch Manager 1 st Floor, Karim Plaza Iqbal Town, Defence Road, Sialkot Tel: 052.324.1704/07 Fax: 052.324.1703
19
Lakson Outlook - April 2016
1954
DECADES OF SEASONED INVESTMENT
Century Insurance
Merit Packaging Limited
Century Paper & Board Mills
Hassan Ali Karabhai Foundation
Lakson Investments Limited. Lakson Square, Building No. 2, Sarwar Shaheed Road, Karachi-74200, Pakistan
UAN T F E
+92.21 111 Lakson +92.21 3569.8000 +92.21 3568.1653
[email protected] www.li.com.pk
