Kyoto and the Challenge for Energy Technology The Science of Climate Change Conference sponsored by Alberta Ingenuity Fund December 3, 2002 Eddy Isaacs
Situational Analysis 1400 1200
10 8 6
800 World Energy Consumption
4
Population of Developed Countries
2 0 1900
1000
World Population
1950
Population Projections: United Nations “Long-Range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision” Energy Projections: “Global Energy Perspectives” ITASA / WEC
2000
Year
2050
600 400 200
0 2100
Energy Consumption (Qbtu / yr)
Population (Billions)
12
The demand for energy will grow rapidly
Situational Analysis
Most of the demand will be met by oil, natural gas and coal
World Energy Consumption - Report#:DOE/EIA-0484(2000)
Canada Total greenhouse gas emissions million tonnes CO2 equivalent
750 700 Projection
Actual emissions
650 600 550
Target Projected emissions
500
Historical emissions Kyoto target
450 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Actual and projected emissions of six greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) Sources: Actual emissions UNFCCC/SBI/2000/11 Table B.1. Projected emissions UNFCCC/1998/Add.2.
Canada, National Energy Board (2002)
Courtesy: Bob Page TransAlta
Canada, National Energy Board (2002)
Courtesy: Bob Page TransAlta
Proven Hydrocarbon Reserves of the U.S.
Coal 275 billion tons 5,839 Quads
Natural Gas More than 164 Tcf 168 Quads
Energy Reserves, Quadrillion Btu
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
Oil 21 billion barrels 122 Quads EIA Country Analysis Briefs October 2000
Canadian vs. World Oil Resources (billion m3 )
400 Conventional
300
Heavy Oil
200
Bitumen
100 0 Canada
World Wightman (1997)
Alberta Production Getting Heavier Thousands of Cubic Meters per annum
60,000
Conventional Oil 40,000
20,000 Bitumen & Heavy Oil 0 1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
Source: Statistics Canada - Table 126-0001 - Survey 2198
1995
1997
1999
Oil Sands: Improved Efficiency OLD
NEW
Dragline & Bucketwheel
Truck & Shovel
Energy Efficiency Conveyor & Tumblers (80°C)
Vertical Wells
Low Energy Extraction 25 - 50° C Hydrotransport
45% Reduction in C02 per barrel
SAGD Horizontal Wells
(2008 vs 1990 technology)
Coal fired Power Plant
Co-Gen Power Plants
SAGD – Going commercial after 20 years and some 30 pilot projects Only viable technology for over 90% of bitumen resources Significantly reduced land disturbance Early into Technology – Issues ¾ Sub-optimal steam-oil ratios ¾ Natural gas for steam requirements ¾ Water ¾Energy intensity – GHG emissions ¾ solvent processes embryonic
VAPEX - Solvent analogue to SAGD Overburden
Mixing zone
Vapour Chamber
Solubility Capillary Mixing Solvent mix
Oil sand
Vapour Chamber
Underburden Oil, Solvent,gas
Low energy consumption Reduce greenhouse gas emissions Minimize water handling/disposal Advantages for:
thin reservoirs highly reactive mineralogy bottom water reservoirs
Diffusion, Dispersion Oil Drainage
Swelling Heavy Oil
Oil Sands: Future
Staggering capital costs – high risks
Synthetic crude and bitumen refinery limitations Heavily dependent on natural gas
Major projects all experiencing cost overruns
Hydrogen production Steam generation
Water issues Energy intensity – GHG Emissions
0.15
Total emissions increase
1500
0.1
1000 0.05
500
0
0 1990
2000 Emissions
2010 Production
000 tonnes CO2 E
2000 000 blls/d
tonnes CO2 E/bbl
Oil sands energy efficiency gains
150 100 50 0
1990
2000
2010
The Probable Future (to 2020)
OIL SANDS – 3 x increase in production
Upgrading
Recovery
Lower temperature processes (e.g. VAPEX) Water management
Integrated operations
Customized synthetic products Less intensity processes
Bitumen bottoms (with coal and biomass) feedstock for gasification providing hydrogen, power and steam
Carbon capture
From hydrogen plants for enhanced recovery operations
Bitumen (1/10 billion bbls), Oil (billion bbls), Gas (Tcf)
Alberta’s Petroleum Outlook 180 160 140 120
Recoverable With Current Technology
30 0
Potential Recoverable With New Technology
100 80 60
1.4
40 20
140
140
46.6
38.7
0.5 9.5
0 Conv. Oil
H/O
Based on AEUB Data (2001)
4.3
Bitumen
Conv. Gas
CBM
Alberta’s Coal: Status
Source: Unlimited
Ultimate Potential: 620 billion tonnes Production (2000): 0.035 billion tonnes
Alberta’s coal reserves
70% of Canada’s 50% of coal produced in Canada 2x the energy of all other natural resources (oil sands, oil and natural gas) 7 Major mines •
80% electricity generation •
•
Sub-bituminous (low S, clean burning)
20% exported – valued at $380 million •
Metallurgical
Coal: Challenge
In a “carbon constrained world” - coal most vulnerable
Emission control costs high
25% of Alberta’s emission High cost of CO2 capture in existing coal plants
Coal 54%
Renew ables* 9%
SOx, NOx , PM, Hg
Technology threats
Distributed generation cost reductions
*Includes hydro, wind and biomass
Gas 37%
Total Installed = 10,640 MW (year end 2001 data)
DOE Web site May 2002
The Probable Future (to 2020)
Power Generation in Canada
Continuing presence of nuclear but no major resurgence Hydroelectric generation remains relatively constant Wind, solar and geothermal increase share of the market Fuel cells, distributed generation, microturbines gain a share of the market Bulk of new generation will be coal (if we
manage the emissions)
CO2 Management
Alberta CO2 Source Inventory Currently available (7260 tonnes/d equivalent to 15,000 bbls EOR project)
Market dependent
Fertilizer plants, gas plants, petrochemical facilities, ethane processing Purity (30 to 99%) (54,000 tonnes/d)
+ hydrogen plants, gas pipelines, power plants
Potential CO2 Markets
Enhanced oil recovery Enhanced coalbed methane Hydrocarbon solvent recovery
Data Courtesy of Alberta Department of energy
CO2 Opportunities
AERI Priority Research and Technology Areas
Clean Coal
UPGRADING -Lower intensity -Higher acceptance -Value added
GHG Emissions (Megatonnes)
Oil Sands
- Conventional oil - Coal Bed methane - Bitumen – lower intensity
Recovery
400
Current path
300
Carbon Management
200 100
Emissions constrained
Water Management
0 1980
Alberta GHG Emissions 1990
2000
2010
2020
Environmental Emissions
2030
- Alberta Niche - Integration with “opportunity” feedstocks - Hydrogen -Fuels cells -Bioenergy
Alternative Energy
tuned to Alberta resources
Approach to climate change needs to be fully integrated Public Education & Outreach
Demonstration
GHG Emissions (Megatonnes)
Learning by doing & technology enhancement
(R&D and D)
400
300
Performance standards, sinks, emission trading
Current path
200
Market Framework
Emissions constrained
100
Conservation & Energy Efficiency Government leading by example
Technology Reliability
Behavioral Change
Carbon management and innovation
Alberta GHG Emissions 0 1980
1990
2000
2010
Adaptation Strategy
2020
2030
Policy Development Incentives not barriers
