AC TRANSIT DISTRICT Board of Directors Executive Summary
GM Memo No. 02-047 Meeting Date: February 21, 2002
Committees: Executive Committee External Affairs Committee
[ ] [ ]
Board of Directors
[ ]
Operations Committee [X] Planning Committee [ ]
Subject: Results of District 2 Ridership Survey RECOMMENDED ACTION:
[ x ] Information Only [ ] Recommended Motion
Fiscal Impact: None. Background/Discussion: After an intensive planning process, AC Transit restructured its entire route network in the Fremont-Newark area in December 2000. The new route structure, including hours of service and frequency of bus routes, was designed to maximize usage of the existing system, address changes in local travel patterns, and anticipate future development in District 2. After nearly one year of the new service, the District conducted a comprehensive ridership and schedule adherence survey to evaluate where the new service has met the project goals, and where it has not been as successful. In August 2001, AC Transit retained Pacific Transportation Management Corporation (PTM) of Berkeley, CA to conduct a ridership survey of service implemented through the Fremont-Newark TDP. The data was collected in October 2001, about nine months after the new service began. The attached report analyzes the ridership data, summarizes trends, and recommends follow-up action.
BOARD ACTION:
Approved as Recommended [x] Approved with Modification(s) [ ]
Other
[ ]
Motion by Director Cross to look at the overall finances of the service and the appropriateness of vehicle size and the appropriateness of vehicle size in conjunction with the financial implications, died for lack of a second. Consensus to receive as submitted and forward to the Board of Directors for receipt.
GM Memo No. 02-047 Subject: Fremont - Newark TDP Ridership Survey Results Date: February 21, 2002 Page 2 of 2
Prior Relevant Board Actions/Policies: •
Board Adoption of Fremont – Newark TDP: Approval of Service Plan, and Financing and Implementation Plan (GM Memo 00-159, 6/5/00).
Next Steps: • • •
Share the report with the staff and policy makers of the Cities of Fremont and Newark. Prepare recommendations by district staff based on the TDP survey report. Work with staff and policy makers of the Cities of Fremont and Newark and the public to prioritize service changes.
Attachments:
Attachment A – AC Transit Fremont - Newark TDP Ridership Survey Report
Approved by:
Kathleen Kelly, Deputy General Manager for Service Development
Prepared by:
Ron Johnsen, Manager of Special Projects Tony Divito, Senior Transportation Planner Christina Verdin, Associate Transportation Planner
Date Prepared:
February 7, 2002
File:share\research\gm memo\gm memo-TDP survey results.doc
Transit Ridership and Schedule Adherence Research in the Fremont/Newark Area
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Table of Contents I. Executive Summary.................................................................................................. 1 II. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 4 The Fremont-Newark Transit Development Plan ..................................................... 4 Survey Scope ............................................................................................................. 5 III. Comparing 2001 Survey Data to the 1998 Boarding and Alighting Survey ......... 7 Overall Ridership in 1998 Compared with 2001....................................................... 8 Service and Ridership - 1998 Lines Compared with Lines in 2001.......................... 9 Runtime and Schedule Adherence – 1998 Compared with 2001............................ 11 Weekday Ridership by Time of Day in 1998 and 2001 .......................................... 11 Factors Effecting Recent Ridership in Fremont and Newark.................................. 12 IV. Route Productivity in 2001.................................................................................. 14 Weekday Service Productivity ................................................................................ 15 Weekend Service Productivity ................................................................................ 16 Weekday Service Productivity - Maximum Loads.................................................. 17 Lines Serving the Most Passengers Who Use a Wheelchair ................................... 18 Lines Serving the Most Passengers Who Use a Bicycle ......................................... 19 V. Weekday Service Productivity by Time of Day in 2001 ...................................... 20 Most Productive Lines by Time of Day .................................................................. 21 Least Productive Lines by Time of Day.................................................................. 22 VI. Trip Generators in 2001....................................................................................... 24 Ridership at Specific Transit Nodes ........................................................................ 24 Ridership in Industrial Zones .................................................................................. 25 VII. Recommendations .............................................................................................. 27
Tables Table 1: Sampling Parameters for Local Routes Surveyed, October 2001 .................. 5 Table 2: Routes Operating in Fremont and Newark, October 2001 ............................. 6 Table 3: 1998 Boarding & Alighting Survey Data Summary of Total Boardings and Maximum Loads by Line and Day Type............................... 7 Table 4: Ridership Compared with Passengers Per Revenue Hour.............................. 8 Table 5: Lines in Service Compared with Boarding Data from 1998 and 2001 in Fremont and Newark................................................................ 10 Table 6: Ridership in 1998 and 2001 by Time of Day ............................................... 12 Table 7: Summary of Total Boardings by Line and Day Type October 2001............ 14 Table 8: Boardings & Alightings at Majors Locations by Day Type ......................... 24 Table 9: Boardings & Alightings at Industrial Areas by Day Type ........................... 25
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Figures Figure 1: Weekday Passengers Per Revenue Hour – 1998 vs. 2001 .......................... 10 Figure 2: Weekday Service Profile – Fall 2001.......................................................... 17 Figure 3: Boardings By Time Period – Weekdays and Saturdays.............................. 20
Appendices Appendix A, Survey Methodology Appendix B, Trips Not Surveyed Appendix C, Survey Analysis Tables
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I. Executive Summary On December 17, 2000, after an 18 month planning process, AC Transit implemented the Fremont – Newark Transit Development Plan (TDP). The overall goal of the TDP was to update the local transit network and schedules in order to meet increased demand in the industrial sector, to attract new ridership and to provide equity to District 2 for its’ taxpayers contribution to AC Transit tax revenue. AC Transit added 50% more hours of service in Fremont and Newark, improving weekday schedules to provide bus trips every 30 minutes during peak commute periods throughout much of the basic network and extending service until at least after 9:00 p.m. in the evening. During the month of October 2001, 96% of weekday peak and weekday off-peak trips on all new local routes was surveyed. Ninety-nine percent of Saturday trips were also surveyed. Two routes were surveyed on Sunday because they are substantially different from their Saturday schedules. Total ridership data for Sunday was calculated by using a ratio between Saturday and Sunday ridership for 1998 and Saturday Ridership for 2001. In 1998, AC Transit operated 16 transit routes during the week, 10 on Saturday and 9 on Sunday in Fremont and in Newark. Since December of 2000, the District operates 18 routes during weekdays and 10 on weekends. Weekday platform hours per day (includes layover time and deadhead time to Division 6) increased 204%, from 554 to 1,687. Saturday platform hours increased from 260 to 326 (24%) on Saturday and from 182 to 311 (70%) on Sunday. Layover time has increased from approximately 13% of platform hours in 1998 to 31% of platform hours in 2001. Major findings of this survey effort are as follows: Ridership
• Total weekly ridership between 1998 and 2001 increased in Fremont and Newark by 2% from a total of 56,085 in 1998 to 57,116 in October 2001. Additionally, a possible decrease in travel in general since September 11, 2001 may have skewed the survey results lowering ridership. • Weekday ridership decreased by 1%, likely due to the depression of the economy evidenced by an increase in off-peak and weekend ridership. • Weekend ridership increased sharply by 31%. This is attributable to the increase in bus frequency from 60 to 30 minutes and a more comprehensive route structure. • Supplemental School Service dramatically increased ridership by 76%. Supplementary school trips on local lines are provided by the district to accommodate secondary school children in addition to the general public. • Midday ridership during the week increased dramatically with almost 700 more passengers for a 16% increase. • Lines that consistently appear to maintain high ridership and passengers per revenue hour are Line 210, service between Ohlone College to Fremont BART and
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South Hayward BART via Fremont Blvd., and Line 213, service between Union City BART and the NewPark Mall. • Lines with lower ridership and passengers per revenue hour are weekday-only Line 253, peak-hour service between Fremont BART and Centerville Amtrak stations; and Line 223, a midday circulator line between Fremont BART, Lake Elizabeth, and Blacow and Mowry. Wheelchair and Bicycle Riders • The greatest number of wheelchair passengers use Route 213, service on Morwy Ave. and Niles Blvd. • Passengers who use a bicycle use Route 210, service on Fremont Blvd between Fremont BART and Ohlone College, on Saturday and their ridership is evenly distributed among District 2 lines during weekdays. Ridership by Area • The most frequently used travel nodes with the most boarding and alighting activity during weekdays are, Fremont BART (about 3,400 AC Transit passengers); Union City BART (approximately 1,250 AC Transit passengers) and The NewPark Mall (about 1,135 AC passengers). • The industrial area that generates the greatest number of passengers is in Warm Springs, bordered by Highway 880, Warm Springs Blvd., Warren Ave. and Kato Road. This area boasts over 300 passengers traveling to and from work per weekday on lines 215, on Osgood Rd. to Fremont BART, and 217, on Mission Blvd. to the Fremont BART and Alder light rail stations. District staff recommendations are as follows: 1. The following routes should continue to be evaluated for service improvements: • Route 253, peak-hour only service between Fremont BART and Centerville Amtrak stations. This route may be eliminated due to low ridership; • Route 234, service on Paseo Padre Parkway to Warm Spring. The peak-hour only segment on Paseo Padre Parkway between Decoto Road and Thornton Blvd. route may be eliminated due to low ridership; • Route 235, peak-hour only service on Albrae St. & Stevenson Blvd. to the Fremont Bart Station. May be deployed all-day due to high ridership.; • Route 210, to Ohlone College on Fremont Blvd. Weekend service may be extended to the South Hayward BART station due to customer requests and high ridership. This route currently serves the South Hayward BART station during weekdays; • Route 99, service along Mission Blvd. between Hayward BART and Union City BART. Under the Central County Transit Study, this line will be extended from Union City BART to Fremont BART along Mission Blvd. 2. AC Transit should not remove or re-route any other routes in Fremont other than those listed above for three years due to a revision of school district boundaries. If any routes in Fremont are changed, this could jeopardize school tripper service to some schools.
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3. Because ridership density on most routes serving Fremont and Newark is lower than in other AC Transit areas, the District recommends that a portion of the funds currently used to provide service be reallocated for a study regarding the use of flexible service in District 2. If the study finds that flexible service could be feasible for some routes, a flexible service pilot program should be implemented. 4. All routes should be evaluated to improve run time and layover time. Staff anticipates that savings in running and layover time can be re-deployed to routes with high ridership or to add serve to areas where there is no bus service. 5. The District will also include this data in a fleet composition plan that examines the feasibility of using smaller vehicles on most Fremont and Newark routes. 6. Once a further examination of all routes has been completed, the service should be reevaluated in two years. Two years time allows patrons to master any service changes and also allows time for the economy to stabilize.
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II. Introduction The Fremont-Newark Transit Development Plan On December 17, 2000, after an 18 month planning process, AC Transit implemented the Fremont – Newark Transit Development Plan (TDP). The TDP was intended to focus on the many changes that have recently taken place in Special Transit District 2, which serves the cities of Fremont and Newark with transfer points in Union City. AC Transit undertook a comprehensive planning process culminating in new bus routes. Development of an improved route structure took into account travel patterns, usage of the existing bus system, projected changes in population and employment, and future development. The planning process included input from local elected officials and city staffs, a Policy Advisory Group, a Technical Advisory Group, focus groups, surveys, public meetings, and coordination with other transit agencies, and stakeholders such as local educational institutions, businesses and industry. The overall goal of the TDP was to update the local transit network and schedules in order to meet increased demand in the industrial sector, to attract new ridership and to provide equity to District 2 for its’ taxpayers contribution to AC Transit tax revenue. Implementation created an entirely new route network structured to better serve current and projected travel demand in South County. Most local routes now serving Fremont and Newark were realigned in this program, shifting buses from residential streets onto principal thoroughfares in a new grid pattern that improves area coverage and shortens trip times. Service was also introduced in new neighborhoods and at employment centers not served by transit. AC Transit added 50% more hours of service in Fremont and Newark, improving weekday schedules to provide bus trips every 30 minutes during peak commute periods throughout much of the basic network and extending service until at least after 9:00 p.m. in the evening. On weekends, frequency on many lines was increased to 30-minute intervals from 60. The new route network offers more direct cross-town service to South County traffic generators and transit transfer centers. To make connections easier, familiar transit hubs like the BART stations are augmented with the addition of new transfer centers at places like Ohlone College, Lido Faire/Rosemont Square Shopping Center and NewPark Mall. In order to inform its stakeholders and to adjust schedules and/or routing, a comprehensive ridership and schedule adherence survey was necessary in Fremont and Newark to provide an accurate assessment of ridership in relation to the service changes. On June 26, 2001, a Request for Proposal was sent to a short list of preapproved contractors. The consultant would be responsible for surveying all routes excluding trunk routes in Special District 2. It was anticipated that data for trunk routes would be collected in 2002 as part of a District-wide trunk line analysis
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project. On August 29, 2001, AC Transit retained a consultant, Pacific Transportation Management Corporation (PTM) of Berkeley, to conduct the survey. Data was collected during the month of October 2001. AC Transit Traffic Checkers participated in the coordination of data collection and fieldwork. Survey Scope During the month of October 2001, 96% of weekday peak and weekday off-peak trips on all new local routes was surveyed. Ninety-nine percent of Saturday trips were also surveyed. AC Transit planners surveyed 100% of afternoon school trippers and a ratio was applied to the data to account for morning boarding counts. About 96% of Routes 213 and 217 Sunday service were surveyed. Line 213 serves the NewPark Mall, which is a major weekend destination. Line 217, Fremont BART to the Milpitas LRT station, operates at 30-minute frequency on Saturday and hourly on Sunday. For the remaining lines, Sunday boarding and alighting counts are estimated based on a ratio with 1998 Boarding & Alighting survey data applied to the Saturday boarding data collected in the survey effort. This is possible because, with the exception of Route 217, service provided on Saturday is the same as service provided on Sunday. Table 1 Fremont-Newark Ridership-Runtime Survey Sampling Parameters for Local Routes Surveyed October 2001 Day Type and Routes Percent Surveyed Weekday - all routes 96% Saturday Service - all routes 99% Sunday Service - Routes 213 and 217 only 96%
All routes were surveyed for weekdays with the exception of off-peak trips on lines 210, 212, and 217 totaling 27 missed trips. Table 1 lists the percentages of routes surveyed during the weekday, Saturday and Sunday. Table 2 lists all routes surveyed during October 2001. The asterisks indicate time not surveyed.
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Table 2 Routes Operating in Fremont and Newark October 2001 Service Span of Hours Route Number 210 211 212 213 214 215 217 218 219 223 231 232 233 234 235 253 258 329 330
Route Description
Weekday
S. Hayward BART - Fremont Blvd. - Ohlone College Union City BART - Fremont Blvd. - Fremont BART Fremont BART - Warm Springs Mowry Ave. - Niles Blvd. Fremont BART - Stevenson Blvd. Central Ave. - Osgood Rd. Fremont BART - Mission Blvd. - Milpitas - Alder LRT Fremont BART - Grimmer Blvd. - Ohlone College Fremont BART - Thorton Blvd. Fremont BART - Fremont Circulator Union City BART - Blacow-Irvington Union City BART - Cedar Blvd. - Ohlone College Union City BART - Newark Blvd. Union City BART - Paseo Padre Pkwy - Warm Springs Albrae & Stevenson - Fremont BART Fremont BART - Fremont Amtrak LINX Paseo Padre Pkwy. (to Ardenwood) Chapel Way - NewPark Mall Fremont BART - Stevenson Blvd. - Weekend Service
* Indicates time period not surveyed. ** Operates Tuesday and Thursday Only
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525a - 1052p 524a - 921p 535a - 940p 557a - 1043p 531a - 1018p 525a - 1042p 530a - 1021p 520a - 1001p 555a - 1030p 818a - 416p 530a - 939p 540a - 1103p 540a - 1025p 541a - 944p 640a - 630p 605a - 731p 623a - 711p 1003a - 127p **
Saturday
Sunday
653a - 817p 653a - 817p 704a - 745p 704a - 745p* 647a - 730p 647a - 730p 649a - 717p 649a - 717p* 700a - 819p 700a - 815p* 643a - 727p 643a - 727p* 700a - 747p 700a - 747p* 645a - 725p 645a - 725p* 659a - 720p 659a - 720p*
700a - 750p 700a - 750p*
III. Comparing 2001 Survey Data to the 1998 Boarding and Alighting Survey In an effort to collect more precise data about ridership, AC Transit hired a consultant in 1997 to conduct a boarding and alighting survey of each stop within the district. The survey was completed in the spring of 1998. Data from this survey provided ridership information about Fremont and Newark including the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each stop, the time buses arrived at the stop, and the time the buses traveled through a node. Fare payment information was also collected. Like the current survey, the data from 1998 provides a “snapshot” of what service in Fremont and Newark was like prior to implementation of the TDP. Where there is not comparable data, this information is presented as stand-alone data that provides insight into service and operations performance in Fremont and Newark. Table 3 AC Transit District 2 - Fremont/Newark 1998 Boarding & Alighting Survey Data Summary of Total Boardings and Maximum Loads by Line and Day Type Weekday
Line 220
221
222
223
224
235 237 329 SOURCES:
Routes Within Line 20 26 Sub-Totals: 21 28 Sub-Totals: 22 27 322 Sub-Totals: 23 25 30 236 Sub-Totals: 24 29 Sub-Totals: 235 37 329
Saturday Sunday Passengers Passengers Passengers per per per Total Maximum Total Maximum Total Maximum Revenue Boardings Revenue Boardings Revenue Load Load Boardings Load Hour Hour Hour 1046 28 231 20 242 15 706 27 176 17 239 12 1752 18.6 407 10.2 481 12.0 946 40 342 23 183 16 1381 73 141 15 88 7 2327 18.3 483 7.0 271 5.6 1222 57 38 9 34 8 614 28 17 12 25 4 355 16 216 21 NO WEEKDAY SERVICE 1836 28.0 410 10.8 275 9.6 597 33 NO WEEKEND SERVICE 249 20 NO WEEKEND SERVICE 190 11 NO WEEKEND SERVICE 159 14 NO WEEKEND SERVICE 1195 18.4 NO WEEKEND SERVICE 438 29 58 17 12 3 1657 45 877 25 392 21 2095 29.7 935 18.7 404 9.9 158 28 15.1 NO WEEKEND SERVICE 872 40 23.0 602 20 20.4 NO SUNDAY SERVICE 27 7 6.2 NO WEEKEND SERVICE
Revenue Hours - AC Transit TR38, Winter 1998, minus 13% layover Boarding Data - AC Transit 1998 Boarding & Alighting Survey
Data collected in both survey efforts allow measurement of productivity by ridership and passengers per revenue hour. Ridership defines the approximate number of
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people per day using any given route. The total boardings for one line is the ridership for that line. Calculation of passengers per revenue hour refines ridership data by quantifying the number of passengers riding any given route during one revenue service hour (this excludes layover and deadhead time to and from Division 6 bus yard in Hayward). The Fremont-Newark service was comprised of eight route groups consisting of 16 individual routes in 1997-98 that traveled in predominantly residential neighborhoods. Lines were identified internally with three-digit numbers. Most route groups contained two or more individual routes identified by a two-digit number. The public identified the routes by their two-digit route number. Table 3 lists all routes in service within District 2 during 1998. Overall Ridership in 1998 Compared with 2001 The ’98 Boarding and Alighting Survey is useful for providing a general comparison between total ridership within Fremont and Newark on the system in 1998 versus total ridership there today. However, a detailed analysis of line- and stop-level data is not possible because most routes were completely reconfigured. Route segments that were preserved following implementation of the TDP also have different origins and destinations that make detailed ridership comparisons impossible. Generalized comparisons are offered here. Total ridership between 1998 and 2001 increased in Fremont and Newark by 2% from a total of 56,085 in 1998 to 57,116 in October 2001. Table 4 Ridership Compared with Passengers Per Revenue Hour 1998
2001
Vehicle Vehicle Revenue Passengers Revenue Passengers Ridership Service Ridership Service per Revenue Hours Hours per Revenue Hours Hours Hour Hour 51,310 2425.0 2373.0 21.6 50,635 4925.0 3450.0 14.7 Weekday 2,838 260.5 226.6 12.5 3,543 326.0 220.0 16.1 Saturday 1,431 182.0 158.3 9.0 2,044 311.0 207.0 9.9 Sunday School Trippers 506 9.2 8.0 63.2 894 19.5 17.0 52.7 Totals 56,085 2876.7 2765.9 20.3 57,116 5,581.5 3,894.0 14.7 Route Type
Bold & Italicized: 2001 Ridership generated by ratio
Weekday ridership decreased by 1%. It is likely that this modest decrease is due to the decrease in Silicon Valley jobs. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission has defined Fremont and the South Bay as an important corridor “…characterized by low-density housing and large campus-like employment centers that developed as Silicon Valley expanded to the east.” Fremont and Newark are considered the
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beginning of the Silicon Valley where many high-tech jobs are located. 1 Additionally, a possible decrease in travel in general since September 11, 2001 may have skewed the survey results lowering ridership. Weekend ridership increased sharply by 31%. This is attributable to the increase in bus frequency from 60 to 30 minutes and a more comprehensive route structure. Total ridership data for Sunday was calculated by using a ratio between Saturday and Sunday ridership for 1998 and Saturday Ridership for 2001. Supplemental School Service saw the most dramatic increase in ridership. Supplementary school trips, provided by the district to accommodate secondary school children in addition to the general public, dramatically increased ridership by 76%. School “trippers” that serve Newark Memorial High School serve the highest number of students per day (219), followed by trippers for Hopkins Junior High School in Fremont (122), and Irvington and Mission San Jose High Schools (106 and 104, respectively). AC Transit launched an aggressive marketing campaign in Fremont and Newark schools in 2000 to attract ridership. Additionally, the grid system of service provided to the general public may make using the service a better option than ever before for junior high school and high school aged children in Fremont and Newark. Changes in school district boundaries, causing some children to go to school farther from their homes, and an increase in the cost to use the local school district’s yellow school bus may have also contributed to the increase in supplementary school tripper service ridership. Service and Ridership - 1998 Lines Compared with Lines in 2001 In 1998, AC Transit operated 16 transit routes during the week, 10 on Saturday and 9 on Sunday in Fremont and in Newark. Since December of 2000, the District operates 18 routes during weekdays and 10 on weekends. Revenue hours are hours when buses serve revenue-paying passengers excluding layover and deadhead time. Figure 1 illustrates how passengers were distributed by revenue hour on eight lines in 1998 compared with 18 lines in 2001. Weekday • Three of eight weekday bus lines had over 20 passengers per revenue hour in 1998 compared with three in 18 in 2001. • Two bus lines in 1998 had at least 28 passengers per revenue hour as opposed to one bus line operating in 2001. • Passengers per revenue hour dropped 35% from 21.6 in 1998 to 14.1 in 2001.
1
Metropolitan Transportation Commission, 2001 Regional Transportation Plan (Draft), (December 2001).
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Figure 1 Fremont-Newark Weekday Passengers Per Revenue Hour - 1998 vs. 2001 2001 Passengers per Revenue Hour 1998 Passengers per Revenue Hour 35.0
Passengers Per Revenue Hour
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Number of Lines in Service
Saturday • Two in five Saturday lines in 1998 carried over 18 passengers per revenue hour compared with three in 10 in 2001. • Average passengers per revenue hour increased 28% from 12.5 in 1998 to 16.1 in 2001. Sunday • No line carried over 20 passengers per revenue hour in 1998 while one line did in 2001 (Line 213 at 29.1). • One in four lines carried over 10 passengers per hour (Line 220 with 10.5) in 1998 and four of 10 carried over 10 passengers per hour in 2001. • Passengers per revenue hour increased 10% from 9.0 in 1998 to 9.9 in 2001. Table 5 Lines in Service Compared with Boarding Data from 1998 and 2001 in Fremont and Newark
Number of Lines in Service Median passengers Per revenue hour Highest Total Passengers Boardings Highest Passengers per Revenue Hour Lowest Passenger Boardings Lowest Passenger Boardings per Revenue Hour
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Weekday 98 01 8 18 11.7 13.3 2,327 1,420 29.7 29.1 27 11 6.2 2.5
Saturday 98 01 5 10 6.7 15.7 935 969 20.4 38.0 407 55 7.0 6.5
Sunday 98 01 10 4 3.2 13.6 481 611 12.0 29.1 271 28 5.6 1.9
Runtime and Schedule Adherence – 1998 Compared with 2001 Weekday platform hours per day (includes layover time and deadhead time to Division 6) increased 204%, from 554 to 1,687. Platform hours also increased from 260 to 326 (24%) on Saturday and from 182 to 311 (70%) on Sunday. Layover time has increased from approximately 13% of platform hours in 1998 to 31% of platform hours in 2001. Layover hours in District 2 are generous. In an effort to prevent late buses due to insufficient running time, the District was overly generous when increasing platform hours. Subsequently, layover hours written to suit the new schedules increased by 18%. This occurred because AC Transit drivers were concerned that the newly written schedules should allow ample time to travel the new routes within District 2. This has also resulted in drivers arriving too early or too late at bus stop nodes in an effort to keep their route schedules and has caused a decrease in service efficiency in Fremont and Newark. All routes will be examined to increase run time efficiency and to reallocate vehicle service hours, including some layover time, on routes where needed. Weekday Ridership by Time of Day in 1998 and 2001 The number of people taking transit during the week went down by 135 passengers per day (a 1% decrease). Ridership primarily decreased during commute hours with a loss of about 350 passengers each during the morning and evening commutes. There is about 1/3 more service than in 1998. Passengers per revenue hour also decreased about 1/3. In 1998, line 222 (routes 27A, 22, and 27) carried the most passengers per revenue hour during the morning and evening commute hours (38.4 and 40.6, respectively). In 2001, line 235 carried the greatest passengers per hour (36.1) in the morning while line 212 carried the greatest number during the evening commute (29.8). Ridership increased dramatically during the midday with almost 700 more passengers for a 16% increase. The increase translated into a 4% decrease in passengers per hour. Midday service increased by 20%. The most productive midday line in 1998 was line 224 (former routes 24 and 29) with 31.6 passengers per revenue hour. In 2001, the most productive midday line was line 211 with 39.1 passengers per revenue hour. Evening service increased by 282%, and experienced the largest drop in passengers per revenue hour (-78%). Fifteen percent fewer passengers took transit after 7 PM. The line carrying the greatest passengers per hour during the evening in 1998 was Line 222 with 26.1. In 2001, Line 211 carried 9 passengers per hour.
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Table 6 Ridership in 1998 and 2001 by Time of Day
Ridership Passengers per Revenue Hour Vehicle Revenue Hours
Time of Day AM Midday PM Peak Evening (5 AM-8:59 AM) (9 AM-3:59 PM) (4PM-6:59 PM) (After 7 PM) Percent Percent Percent Percent 1998 2001 Change 1998 2001 Change 1998 2001 Change 1998 2001 Change 2,884 2,511 -13% 4,317 5,000 16% 2,471 2,114 -14% 590 502 -15% 25.8
17.2
118.1
146.3
-33%
18.8
18.1
-4%
25.6
16.4
24% 229.9 276.1
20%
96.6 128.8
-36% 16.3
3.6
-78%
33% 36.3 138.8
282%
Factors Effecting Recent Ridership in Fremont and Newark The South County bus system has grown, but ridership per hour was lower in October 2001. Saturday and Sunday ridership has increased, but weekday ridership has decreased (see Table 3). While the transportation industry standard allows three years for bus lines to return to similar ridership levels from before route changes are made, this formula does not easily apply to Special District 2. Two factors directly affecting ridership are the comprehensive restructuring of the bus lines and changes in the regional economy. Ridership should rise but may not return to pre-2000 levels within the next two years. For the past year, ridership in Fremont and Newark has been distributed within a much wider, completely redesigned framework of service. Before changes were made, all eight bus lines made connections at Fremont BART and/or Union City BART stations. Some choice passengers have expressed that they were accustomed to making their connections at a BART station. While the service has been configured based on surveys of the entire community, including people who do not use transit 2 , some passengers have expressed a preference for transferring at BART stations even though transferring elsewhere in the District provides a more direct route to their destinations. People dependent on public transit have an incentive to learn the system quickly, but choice riders have less incentive to learn the system. More influential than educating riders about the new system is the loss of regional jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor’s October monthly report on Metropolitan Area Unemployment indicates that employment and unemployment data for the month of October reflect the impact of a weakening U.S. economy. This is especially true of the San Francisco Bay Area, especially in the communities that comprise the Silicon Valley, and Fremont and Newark are considered the northernmost portion of the Silicon Valley. The Bureau of Labor 2
Crain & Associates, Inc. for AC Transit, Transit Market Research in the Fremont/Newark Area (March 2000).
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Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor’s Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment press release for October 2001 reported: • Three of the five metropolitan areas with the largest jobless rate increases over the year were in the Bay Area: San Jose (+4.8 percentage points), San Francisco (+2.4 points), and Oakland (+2.2 points). • Since October 2000, San Jose, Calif., which includes most of the Silicon Valley, recorded the largest over-the-year unemployment rate increase (+4.8 percentage points to 6.4%). • Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 1990 census population of 1 million or more, San Jose, Calif. reported the third highest unemployment rate. • San Jose lost 27,300 jobs over the past year. Only New York, N.Y. (-58,700), Detroit, Mich. (-38,200), and Chicago, Ill. (-27,700) reported more job losses. Finally, the September 11th terrorist attack in New York City also exacerbated an already weakening labor market. While it is not possible to quantify the effect of the terrorist attacks on employment and unemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report that the broad impact of these events is evident.
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IV. Route Productivity in 2001 Table 5 summarizes 2001 ridership on all lines operating in District 2 in terms of total boardings, maximum loads, and passengers per revenue hour. Lines that consistently appear to maintain high ridership and passengers per revenue hour are Line 210, service between Ohlone College to Fremont BART and South Hayward BART via Fremont Blvd., and Line 213, service between Union City BART and the NewPark Mall. With ridership of over 1,000 during the week, close to 1,000 on Saturdays, and over 450 passengers on Sunday, these Lines serve between 14 to 20 passengers per revenue hour on every day except Sunday. Lines with lower ridership and passengers per revenue hour are: (1) weekday-only Line 253, peak-hour service between Fremont BART and Centerville Amtrak stations; and (2) Line 223, a midday circulator line between Fremont BART, Lake Elizabeth, and Blacow and Mowry. Complete tables detailing the rankings below for weekdays, Saturday and Sunday can be found in Appendix C, Survey Analysis Tables. Table 7 AC Transit District 2 - Fremont/Newark Summary of Total Boardings by Line and Day Type October 2001 Weekday Line 210 211 212 212/231* 213 214 214/330* 215 215/234* 217 218 219** 223 231 212/231* 232 233 234 215/234* 235 253 258 328*** 329 330 214/330*
Saturday
Passengers Total Maximum Total per Revenue Boardings Load Boardings Hour
Sunday
Passengers Maximum Total Maximum per Revenue Load Boardings ** Load Hour
1,420 828
45 27
18.4 29.1
969
23 489 N/A 24.2 NO WEEKEND SERVICE
800 1,311
33 31
22.9 23.2
71 798
10 34
857
41
19.5
530 946 401 615 75
13 50 24 18 6
8.7 13.4 10.8 17.8 2.5
87 453
324 757 535
19 29 34
9.4 12.9 14.1
205
425 164 11 97
16 23 3 15
7.7 16.4 11.0 6.3
55
31
7
10.3
12.2 38.0
36 N/A 611
Passengers per Revenue Hour 12.2
27
6.2 29.1
14
1.9 12.0
NO WEEKEND SERVICE
262
436
7 44 N/A 7.9 12 277 9.3 NO WEEKEND SERVICE 17 132 N/A 7.9 NO WEEKEND SERVICE 21 103 N/A 13.9 NO WEEKEND SERVICE 18 220 N/A 20.8 6 28 N/A 6.5 NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE
4.0
7.0 10.5 3.3
NO WEEKEND SERVICE 207
11
12.5
104 N/A
6.3
SOURCE: Fremont-Newark Ridership and Schedule Adherence Survey, Fall 2001 * Weekend Hybrid ** Italicised and bolded numbers indicate estimated boardings at routes not surveyed on Sunday. Sunday Boardings calculated by a ratio of Saturday '98 to Sunday '98 Ridership multiplied by Saturday '01 ridership *** New service - no data available
17
Weekday Service Productivity Lines serving the greatest number of passengers per weekday in Fremont and Newark are: • Line 210, with 1,420 riders per weekday; • Line 213, which carries the second largest number of people, at 1,311 riders per day; and • Line 217, service between Fremont BART via Mission Blvd., carrying the third most people at 946 daily riders. Lines serving the greatest number of passengers per hour are: • Line 211, service between Union City BART and Fremont BART on Fremont Blvd., carrying 29.1 passengers per revenue hour; • Line 213, service between Union City BART and the NewPark Mall, carrying 23.2 passengers per revenue hour; and • Line 212, service between Fremont BART and Warm Springs, carrying 22.9 passengers per revenue hour. While Line 217 carries the third greatest number of passengers per day (946), it ranks 9th in the number of passengers carried per revenue hour (13.4). In contrast, Line 211 ranks 5th in the number of weekday boardings (828) but first in passengers per revenue hour. Lines carrying the fewest number of passengers per weekday in the system include: • Line 253, peak hour service between the Centerville Amtrak and Fremont BART stations, which carries 11 passengers per day. • Line 329, “senior shopper” service operating on Wednesdays and Fridays only between Chapel Way and the NewPark Mall, carrying 31 passengers per day. • Line 223, midday circulator service from the Fremont BART Station into the Fremont civic area, which carries 75 passengers per day; and • Line 258, peak hour service to and from the Ardenwood industrial area and Union City BART, carrying 97 passengers per day. Lines carrying the fewest passengers per hour are: • Line 223, the Fremont midday circulator that travels to Fremont BART, carrying 2.5 passengers per hour; and • Line 258, midday bus service to the Ardenwood industrial area from Union City BART, carrying 6.3 passengers per revenue hour. • Line 234, local service between Fremont BART and Warm Springs via Paseo Padre Parkway with peak hour service to Union City BART, which carries 7.7 passengers per revenue hour. It should be noted that while Line 329, service between Chapel Way and the NewPark Mall, carries the second fewest number of passengers (31), operates only on Wednesdays and Fridays from approximately 10 AM to 1:30 PM. Line 329 serves 18
senior citizens that shop the NewPark Mall who reside in senior living facilities on or near Chapel Way. Weekend Service Productivity SATURDAY Lines serving the greatest number of passengers in Fremont and Newark are: • Line 210 on Fremont Blvd., which carries the largest number of passengers, (969); • Line 213 on Mowry Ave. carries the second largest amount with 798 riders; and • Lines 217 to Milpitas and Line 233, which travels from Union City BART down Newark Blvd., carry over 400 riders (453 and 436, respectively). Lines with the greatest number of passengers per revenue hour are: • Line 213 on Mowry Ave., with 38.0; • Line 210 on Fremont Blvd., with 24.2; and • Line 233 on Newark Blvd., with 20.8. Lines serving the fewest number of passengers on Saturday are: • The Line 234 section of hybrid Line 215/234 on Paseo Padre Parkway, with 55 boardings; • The Line 212 section of hybrid Line 212/231 on Fremont Blvd., with 71 boardings; and • The Line 215 section of hybrid 215/234 on Central Ave. and Peralta Blvd., with 87 passenger boardings. Lines with the lowest number of passengers per revenue hour are: • The Line 234 section of hybrid Line 215/234 on Paseo Padre Parkway, with 6.5 passengers per revenue hour; • The Line 215 section of hybrid Line 212/231 on Central Ave. and Peralta Blvd., with 7.9 passengers per revenue hour; and • Line 219 on Thornton Blvd., with 7.9 passengers per revenue hour.
SUNDAY Lines serving the greatest number of passengers in Fremont and Newark are: • Line 213 on Mowry Ave. carries 611 passengers, the largest total on Sunday; • Line 210 on Fremont Blvd. carries the second largest amount with 489 estimated riders; and • Line 217 on Mission Blvd. carries 277 riders.
19
Lines with the greatest number of passengers per revenue hour are: • Line 213 on Mowry Ave., with 29.1; • Lines 210 on Fremont Blvd. and 217 on Mission Blvd., with 12.2 and 12.0, respectively; and • Line 233 on Newark Blvd. carrying 10.5 passengers per revenue hour. Lines serving the fewest number of passengers on Sunday are: • The Line 234 section of hybrid Line 215/234 on Paseo Padre Parkway, with 28 boardings; • The Line 212 section of hybrid Line 212/231 on Fremont Blvd., with 36 boardings; and • The Line 215 section of hybrid 215/234 on Peralta Blvd. and Fremont Blvd., with 44 boardings. Lines with the lowest number of passengers per revenue hour are: • The Line 215 section of hybrid Line 215/234 on Peralta Blvd. and Fremont Blvd., with 1.9 passengers per revenue hour; • The Line 234 section of hybrid Line 215/234 Paseo Padre Parkway,, with 3.3 passengers per revenue hour; and • Line 219, on Thornton Blvd. with 4.0 passengers per revenue hour. Weekday Service Productivity - Maximum Loads The maximum load on a bus line is the greatest number of passengers on a line during one day. Maximum loads tend to occur during commute hours when the greatest numbers of people use transit. The greatest number of passengers on nonsupplemental school trip buses at one time during the survey was 50 passengers. The
Route Weekday Total Boardings
20
Weekday Maximum Load
Maximum Load
0 253
3
0 329
6
100
223
9
200
258
12
300
235
15
400
231
18
500
218
21
600
234
24
700
215
27
800
233
30
900
219
33
1,000
232
36
1,100
212
39
1,200
211
42
1,300
214
45
1,400
217
48
1,500
213
1,600
210
Boardings
Figure 2 AC Transit District 2 - Fremont-Newark Weekday Service Profile - Fall 2001
smallest maximum load on non-supplemental school trip buses was 3 passengers (Route 253). The chart below illustrates how maximum loads compare with ridership in this survey. Supplemental school service trips recorded the largest maximum load at 90 passenger boardings for the PM trip from Newark Memorial High school. School trips tend to have very high maximum loads since everyone gets out of school and boards the bus together, therefore school trip loads on not included in this chart. Lines Serving the Most Passengers Who Use a Wheelchair During the course of the survey, 55 wheelchair passengers boarded bus lines being surveyed on weekdays and 22 rode on Saturday. Ridership of persons who use wheelchairs is assumed to be slightly lower than the Saturday total. A total of 6 wheelchair users rode lines 213 and 217 on Sunday. Line 213 carried wheelchair users on weekdays, Saturday and Sunday. Weekdays • Eight passengers each boarded lines 212 and 214 • Seven passengers each boarded lines 211 and 213 • Five passengers each boarded lines 219 and 233 • The remaining lines boarded 3 passengers or fewer. • The most boardings (7) were recorded at the Fremont BART Station, NewPark Mall (3) and Lido Faire Shopping Center (3). Saturday • 10 Passengers boarded line 213 • Lines 210, 215, 217, 219, 233 and 231 carried one or two passengers. • Six passengers boarded at the NewPark Mall. One or two passengers were recorded at all other stops where wheelchair users boarded. Sunday • Line 213 carried 4 and line 217 carried 2 wheelchair passengers. • All boardings occurred at Fremont BART, Union City BART or along Mowry Ave. Lines Serving the Most Passengers Who Use a Bicycle Riders who use bicycles in Fremont and Newark ride AC Transit more frequently on weekends than during weekdays. Nine bicyclists were recorded using the service on weekdays compared with 39 on Saturday. There was at least one bicyclist on each line during the week and no line carries more bike riders than another. On Saturday, Line 210 carried 15 bicyclists, Line 217 carried 8 and Line 233 carried 7. At least two bicycles were observed riding Lines 213 and 217 on Sunday. It can be assumed 21
that Sunday bicycle user data would be slightly lower than Saturday bicyclist ridership.
22
V. Weekday Service Productivity by Time of Day in 2001 The chart below graphically represents the total number of actual boardings recorded during the survey on weekdays and Saturday by time of day (Sunday is not included because the number is a ratio and not an actual number of passengers). During weekdays, ridership “peaks” twice. The peaks from 7 AM to 9 AM and 3 AM to 4 PM represent junior high and high school students riding to and from school. Also, many riders who commute by bus or to BART to get to work board at about 7 AM during morning commute hours, and the majority board between 3-5 in the afternoon. On Saturday, ridership is more “flat” throughout the day, although there is increased ridership between 10 AM and 3 PM. This increased ridership is attributable to shopping trips made to the NewPark Mall and to other shopping centers throughout District 2. Figure 3 AC Transit District 2 (Fremont/Newark) Boardings By Time Period Weekdays and Saturdays 1,050 School Dismissal
1,000 950
School Start
900 850 800 750 700 Boardings
650 600 550 500 450 400
Peak Shopping Period
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Saturday
While the chart illustrates the number of people served by AC Transit in Fremont and Newark by time of day, it does not measure productivity of each route. Weekday service data recorded in District 2 during this survey has been subject to analysis divided into four time periods: AM (5 AM-8:59 AM), midday (9 AM-3:59 PM), PM Peak (4PM-6:59 PM) and evening service (After 7 PM). Line 211 ranked in the top four in all time of day categories. Lines 212 and 213 ranked high in at least three categories. Lines like the 210 and 235 rank low in one or more time periods but have
23
10:00 - 10:59 pm
9:00 - 9:59 pm
8:00 - 8:59 pm
7:00 - 7:59 pm
6:00 - 6:59 pm
5:00 - 5:59 pm
4:00 - 4:59 pm
3:00 - 3:59 pm
2:00 - 2:59 pm
1:00 - 1:59 pm
12:00 n - 12:59 pm
11:00 - 11:59 am
10:00 - 10:59 am
9:00 - 9:59 am
8:00 - 8:59 am
7:00 - 7:59 am
6:00 - 6:59 am
5:00 - 5:59 am
Time Period Weekday
higher passengers per revenue hour in another time period. Six out of 17 lines carry more than 20 passengers per revenue hour during the morning commute and midday. Five of 16 carry more than 20 passengers per revenue hour during the evening commute and all lines in service past 7 PM carry fewer than 10 passengers per hour. Most Productive Lines by Time of Day Morning During mornings, 17.2 passengers per revenue hour ride all District 2 lines. Service during morning commute hours is the second most productive time of day. Almost 40% of all morning passengers (920) are carried on four lines. • Line 235, service between Fremont BART and Albrae Street & Stevenson Boulevard, is the most productive morning line with 36.1 passengers per revenue hour. • Line 211, service between Union City BART and Fremont BART on Fremont Blvd., is second with 28.1 passengers per revenue hour. • Line 214, service between Fremont BART via Stevenson Blvd. to NewPark Mall and Lido Faire Shopping Center, is third with 24.4. • Line 210, service between Ohlone College to Fremont BART and South Hayward BART via Fremont Blvd. is fourth with 24.2 passengers per revenue hour in the morning. While line 210 is fourth in passengers per revenue hour, it carries the greatest number of passengers during morning commute hours (395). Midday The most productive time of day is midday, with 18.1 passengers per revenue hour. Almost half of midday passengers (2,262) travel on four lines between 9 AM and 4 PM. • Line 211, service between Union City BART and Fremont BART on Fremont Blvd., carries 39.1 passengers per revenue hour. • Line 213, service between Union City BART and the NewPark Mall, is second with 33.8. • Line 212, service between Fremont BART and Warm Springs, is third with 26.7 passengers per revenue hour. • Line 210 is fourth with 26.4 passengers per revenue hour. Similar to the morning commute, line 210 is fourth in passengers per revenue hour; it carries the greatest number of passengers during the midday (738). Afternoon Commute Almost 40% of passengers (806) travel on four lines during the afternoon commute. This is the third most productive time of day with 16.4 passengers served per revenue hour. • Line 212 is the most productive and line 213 is second with 29.8 and 29.2 passenger per revenue hour, respectively.
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• Line 211 is third with 26 passengers per revenue hour. • Line 219, service between Fremont BART and Lido Faire Shopping Center via Thorton Blvd., is fourth most productive with 22 passengers per revenue hour. • The two lines that serve the largest numbers of passengers during the afternoon commute are line 213 with 309 passengers and line 210 with 256 passengers. Evening Evening service ranks 4th in terms of productivity serving 3.6 passengers per revenue hour, and almost half (46 %) of all passengers travel on four lines after 7 PM. • Line 211 is the most productive evening line with 9.9 passengers per revenue hour. • Lines 212 and 213 carry 6.9 and line 213 carries 5.7 passengers per revenue hour. • Line 213 carries the greatest number of passengers (80). Least Productive Lines by Time of Day Morning • Line 258, peak hour service on Paseo Padre Parkway to the Ardenwood industrial area, carried 9.3 passengers per revenue hour. • Line 234, service between the Fremont BART station and Warm Springs via Paseo Padre Parkway with peak hour service to and from Union City BART, and Line 231, service on Blacow from Union City BART, carried 10.4 and 10.6 passengers per revenue hour, respectively. • Line 215 on Central Ave. carried 11.4 passengers per revenue hour. • Of four least productive lines, line 215 carries the most (148) and line 258 carries the fewest passengers (45). Midday 223, 234, 215, 231 • Line 223, the Fremont circulator that travels to Fremont BART, carries the fewest number of passengers per revenue hour (2.5). • Line 234, service between the Fremont BART station and Warm Springs via Paseo Padre Parkway, carried 7.8. • Line 215 on Central Ave. carries 9.3 fewest passengers per revenue hour. • Line 231 on Blacow Rd. carries 12.5 passengers per hour. • Of the four least productive midday lines, line 215 carries the largest (207) and line 223 carries the fewest (69) number of passengers. Afternoon Peak • Line 253, service between Fremont BART and Centerville Amtrak stations, carries the fewest total passengers (2) and passengers per revenue hour (3.6) of the four least productive evening peak lines. • Line 231, service on Blacow from Union City BART, carried the second fewest passengers per revenue hour (7.1). • Line 258, service to the Ardenwood Industrial, area carried 7.6 passengers per revenue hour.
25
• Line 218, service between Fremont BART and Ohlone College via Grimmer Blvd., carried 9.6 passengers per revenue hour and the greatest number of passengers (69) of the four least productive lines. Evening • Line 234 carries the fewest passengers per revenue hour (1.4). • Lines 210 and 218 carry 1.7 revenue-paying passengers each. • Line 215, service on Central Ave. and Osgood Rd. to Warm Springs, carries 2 passengers per revenue hour. • Lines 210 and 215 carry the greatest number of passengers of the four least productive lines (31 and 30, respectively). • During the survey, line 218 carried 12 total passengers after 7 PM.
26
VI. Trip Generators in 2001 Ridership at Specific Transit Nodes Aligning AC Transit bus lines in a grid pattern allows many more transfer opportunities than the old alignment. These transit “nodes” tend to be located in near major trip generators like shopping plazas, schools, businesses and intermodal facilities like BART stations. Table 8 shows boarding and alighting totals for the busiest transit nodes in Fremont and Newark. Table 8 AC Transit District 2 - Fremont-Newark Boardings & Alightings at Major Locations by Day Type
Stop Fremont BART Union City BART New Park Mall Fremont & Mowry Ohlone College Irvington/Five Corners Weller & Main Alder LRT Lido Faire Centerville Amtrak Union Landing Great Mall of Milpitas
Weekday On Off 1899 1509 674 584 569 566 425 399 290 325 95 99 117 93 41 51 203 154 40 54 22 23 29 22
Saturday On Off 478 473 211 189 283 314 231 243 62 61 84 91 35 36 29 25 91 114 14 19 20 38 16 15
Sunday On Off 226 201 46 36 159 159 118 93 14 12 32 14
21 12
22
13
SOURCE: South County Boarding & Alighting Survey Fall 2001
During weekdays, about 3,400 AC Transit passengers travel to, from or through the Fremont BART station making it the most active node in District 2. Union City BART is second with approximately 1,250 AC Transit passengers boarding or exiting buses. The NewPark Mall is a close third with about 1,135 riders connecting to other lines or going to the mall. Fremont Blvd. & Mowry Ave. is the fourth most active node, with over 800 passengers. Ohlone College (615) and Lido Faire (357) are also highly active nodes. On Saturdays, the top four nodes rank in the same order. Fremont BART Station generates about 950 passenger boardings and alightings, and Union City BART generates about 597. The NewPark Mall is third with 474 passengers. The corner of Fremont Blvd. and Mowry Ave. generates about 400 passengers. Lido Faire (205), Five Corners in Irvington (175) and Ohlone College (123) also generate clusters of riders.
27
On Sunday, the rank order of the four most active nodes changes. Fremont BART attracts over 400 passengers. NewPark Mall generates about 318 and passenger boardings and alightings. Fremont Blvd. And Mowry Ave. attracts over twice as many riders (211) than Union City BART (82). Ridership in Industrial Zones AC transit now operates in areas that were not served prior to implementation of the Transit Development Plan. Ridership now exists in many industrial zones that were not served by transit before December of 2000. The service increase took place in five major industrial areas: Gateway/Ardenwood, Albrae, Warm Springs, the Warm Springs/Osgood Corridor, and Irvington.
Table 9 AC Transit District 2 - Fremont-Newark Boardings & Alightings at Industrial Areas by Day Type
Area Warm Springs Irvington Industrial Area Gateway/Ardenwood Albrae Industrial Area Osgood/Warm Springs Corridor
Weekday On Off 305 336 187 241 139 171 134 202 81 92
Saturday On Off 100 110 22 21 5 8 24 26
Sunday On Off 64 72
SOURCE: South County Boarding & Alighting Survey Fall 2001
Warm Springs – bordered by Highway 880, Warm Springs Blvd, Warren Ave. and Kato Road. Formerly served by AC Transit routes 22 and 28, the area is now served by three local lines. Line 215 on Osgood to Fremont BART, line 217 on Mission to Fremont BART and the Alder light rail station in Milpitas; and line 234 on Paseo Padre Parkway to Union City BART carried 336 riders into and 305 riders out of the cluster of businesses within this area. Line 215 provides new coverage along Westinghouse and Fourier where 12 boardings and alightings took place during the survey. The Warm Springs industrial area is also very active during weekends, with over 200 riders boarding and alighting line 217 on Saturday and over 130 on Sunday. Irvington – located on either side of South Grimmer Blvd. between Fremont Blvd. and Durham Rd., this area was formerly served by only one route (line 22) along Fremont Blvd. Implementation of the TDP added a total of three local lines. During the survey, line 212 on Warm Springs Blvd. to Fremont BART, line 218 on Grimmer Blvd. to Fremont BART, and line 232 on Cedar Blvd. to Fremont BART, carried 241 passengers into and 187 passengers out of the triangular business district during weekdays.
28
Gateway/Ardenwood - located north and south of Highway 84 near the Dumbarton Bridge in Newark, there was minimal route coverage on the Gateway side along Newark and Jarvis, and there was no service to Ardenwood. Today, AC Transit local lines 232 on Cedar to Union City BART, 214 on Stevenson to Fremont BART, and 219 on Thornton to Fremont BART and commuter line 258 on Paseo Padre to Union City BART now operate in the Gateway portion of the area. Lines 232 and 258 now operate in the Ardenwood portion on the north side of Highway 84. During weekdays, approximately 336 passengers alighted buses and 305 passengers boarded buses on within this industrial area. There is very light activity on Line 219 during Saturday, with 13 riders boarding and alighting in this area. Albrae – located along the southwest side of Highway 880 near Stevenson Blvd., this area was formerly served only by commuter LINX line 235 to Fremont BART along Stevenson Blvd. With the addition of local lines 214 on Sevenson to Fremont BART and 232 on Cedar Blvd. to Union City BART, and including the old line 235, AC Transit carried 202 passengers to and 134 passengers from this area. Saturday service on line 330 on Stevenson Blvd. to Fremont BART carried 26 passengers to and 24 passengers from businesses located along Boyce Rd. and Stevenson Blvd. near Albrae St. Warm Springs/Osgood Corridor – located on Warm Springs/Osgood Rd. between Mission Blvd. and Washington Blvd., this area was not served by transit before the TDP was implemented. During the survey, line 215, on Central and Osgood to Fremont BART, alighted 92 passengers and boarded 81 passengers off and on stops along this corridor during weekdays. With the opening of a Walmart on Osgood and businesses continuing to build along the corridor, ridership on line 215 is anticipated to grow.
29
VII. Recommendations The overall goal of the Fremont – Newark Transit Development Plan was to update the local transit network and schedules in order to meet increased demand in the industrial sector, to attract new ridership and to provide equity to District 2 for its’ taxpayers contribution to AC Transit tax revenue. The TDP has met its primary goals by increasing and providing improved service to patrons in Fremont and Newark. AC Transit can further improve service by reallocating service hours from less efficient routes to areas where service would better benefit the public. While route examination has already begun, AC Transit should not remove or reroute any other routes in Fremont other than those listed below for three years due to a revision of school district boundaries. If any routes in Fremont are changed, this could jeopardize school tripper service to some schools. Because state and federal regulations allow AC Transit to provide school tripper service along already existing routes only, any changes could force discontinuance to/from schools that depend on the District to help transport students to school. Because ridership density on most routes serving Fremont and Newark is lower than in other AC Transit areas, the District recommends that a portion of the funds currently used to provide service be reallocated for a study regarding the use of flexible service in District 2. If the study finds that flexible service could be feasible for some routes, a flexible service pilot program should be implemented. All routes will be evaluated to improve run time and layover time. Staff anticipates that savings in running and layover time can be re-deployed to routes with high ridership or to add serve to areas where there is no bus service. The District will also include this data in a fleet composition plan that examines the feasibility of using smaller vehicles on most Fremont and Newark routes. AC Transit staff is currently evaluating the following lines for service improvements: • Route 253, peak-hour only service between Fremont BART and Centerville Amtrak stations. This route may be eliminated due to low ridership. • Route 234, service on Paseo Padre Parkway to Warm Spring. The peak-hour only segment on Paseo Padre Parkway between Decoto Road and Thornton Blvd. route may be eliminated due to low ridership. • Route 235, peak-hour only service on Albrae St. & Stevenson Blvd. to the Fremont Bart Station. May be deployed all-day due to high ridership. • Route 210, to Ohlone College on Fremont Blvd. Weekend service may be extended to the South Hayward BART station due to customer requests and high ridership. This route currently serves the South Hayward BART station during weekdays. • Route 99, service along Mission Blvd. between Hayward BART and Union City BART. Under the Central County Transit Study, this line will be extended from Union City BART to Fremont BART along Mission Blvd.
30
Once a further examination of all routes has been completed, the service should be reevaluated in two years. Two years time allows patrons to master any service changes and also allows time for the economy to stabilize. It is likely that the survey would have recorded much higher weekday peak ridership if the survey had been conducted in the spring of 2001 instead of the fall. Staff also anticipates that ridership will increase sharply on school tripper routes due to the AC Transit Student Pass Program in conjunction with the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. This program will give free passes to students who qualify for the federal school lunch program and will provide a reduced-price pass to all other students. Staff anticipates that this program will be very popular among parents and students in Fremont. Fremont Unified School District currently charges approximately $300 annually per student to ride the schools district’s yellow school bus. The AC Transit student bus pass will become significantly less expensive and provides more travel options than the local yellow school bus.
31
Appendix A Survey Methodology The survey methodology provides a “snapshot” of passenger activity and operations in Fremont and Newark during the month of October 2001. The sampling plan takes into account ridership fluctuations throughout the day by surveying different trips on each line during different days and weeks in October. Data was collected at all nodes and for every stop on local routes in the survey area where there was passenger board or alight activity. Each local route was surveyed once. Actual arrival and departure times were recorded at nodes and at stops where there was board or alight activity. The day, date and bus number was recorded for each observation. Passenger activity by people that use wheelchairs and bicycles was also recorded. A blank space was provided for each stop so surveyors could record anything they felt might elucidate the data. As surveyors and AC Transit Traffic Checkers completed survey assignments, the surveys were collected, reviewed, and entered concurrently. This method allowed the opportunity for anomalies to be checked in a timely manner. AC Transit transportation planners surveyed supplementary school service afternoon boardings. A ratio was applied to the afternoon boarding data to determine approximate morning boarding data. Ridership data from this survey provides a picture of typical AC Transit service in Fremont and Newark for the time period surveyed. Data about ridership and service efficiency provide information that can be used to evaluate service effectiveness. A total of 27 trips were missed during the weekday. Thirty-seven percent of trips missed during the weekday were missed due to the coach not arriving at the end of the line where surveyors waited to board (10 trips). All Saturday service was surveyed except for three trips. Routes 210 and 213 were surveyed on Sunday excepting three trips. Missed weekend trips were also due to coaches not arriving at the end of the line where surveyors waited to board (see appendix B for a list of all missed trips). New Line 328, which operates along Grimmer Blvd. and Durham Rd. providing transit links on Saturdays, Sundays and holidays between the transit transfer center at the Fremont BART Station and Ohlone College, was not in service at the time of the survey. It went into operation beginning Sunday, December 9, 2001.
32
33
Appendix C
AC Transit District 2 - Fremont/Newark Weekday Boardings by Time of Day by Line and Time of Day October 2001
Weekday Line 210 211 212 213 214 215 217 218 219 223 231 232 233 234 235 253 258 329 Totals
Total Boardings 1,420 828 800 1,311 857 530 946 401 615 75 324 757 535 425 164 11 97 31 10,127
Ridership By Time of Day Midday (9 AM-3:59 PM) PM Peak (4PM-6:59 PM)
AM (5 AM-8:59 AM)
Vehicle Revenue Hours 77.0 28.5 35.0 56.5 44.0 61.0 70.5 37.0 34.5 30.0 34.5 58.5 38.0 55.5 10.0 1.0 15.5 3.0 690
Boardings
Vehicle Revenue Hours
395 187 189 206 235 148 246 134 115 6 85 179 99 130 103 9 45
16.3 6.7 7.9 10.6 9.6 12.9 15.4 8.4 6.7 2.3 8.1 12.4 8.3 12.5 2.9 0.4 4.8
2511
146.3
Passengers per Revenue Hour 24.2 28.1 23.9 19.4 24.4 11.4 16.0 16.0 17.2 2.6 10.6 14.4 11.9 10.4 36.1 20.3 9.3
Boardings
Vehicle Revenue Hours
Passengers per Revenue Hour
738 446 362 716 417 207 484 186 309 69 172 395 280 167 13
28.0 11.4 13.5 21.2 16.5 22.2 26.4 14.3 13.4 27.7 13.8 21.3 14.3 21.5 2.9
26.4 39.1 26.7 33.8 25.3 9.3 18.3 13.0 23.1 2.5 12.5 18.6 19.6 7.8 4.6
8 31 5000
4.8 3.0 276.1
1.7 10.3
SOURCE: Fremont-Newark Ridership and Schedule Adherence Survey, Fall 2001
34
Boardings
Evening (After 7 PM)
Vehicle Passengers Revenue per Revenue Boardings Hour Hours
Vehicle Revenue Hours
Passengers per Revenue Hour
256 148 202 309 168 145 181 69 147
14.0 5.7 6.8 10.6 8.3 11.1 13.2 7.2 6.7
18.3 26.0 29.8 29.2 20.4 13.1 13.7 9.6 22.0
31 47 47 80 37 30 35 12 44
18.7 4.8 6.8 14.1 9.6 14.8 15.4 7.2 7.8
1.7 9.9 6.9 5.7 3.8 2.0 2.3 1.7 5.6
49 134 99 113 48 2 44
6.9 10.6 7.1 10.7 3.6 0.6 5.8
7.1 12.6 13.9 10.5 13.4 3.6 7.6
18 49 57 15 0
5.8 14.2 8.3 10.7 0.7
3.1 3.5 6.9 1.4 0.0
2114
128.8
502.0
138.8
Weekday Route 210 213 217 214 214/330*
Total Boardings
Maximum Load
Weekday
Vehicle Service Hours
Passengers per Revenue Hour
Route
Total Boardings
Maximum Load
Vehicle Service Hours
Passengers per Revenue Hour
1,420 1,311
45 31
96.0 84.0
14.8 15.6
211 213
828 1,311
27 31
44.0 84.0
18.8 15.6
946
50
97.5
9.7
1,420
45
96.0
14.8
857
41
63.0
13.6
857
41
63.0
13.6
800
33
59.0
13.6
211 212 212/231*
828
27
44.0
18.8
210 214 214/330* 212 212/231*
800
33
59.0
13.6
219**
615
18
52.5
11.7
232
757
29
82.0
9.2
217
946
50
97.5
9.7
219**
615
18
52.5
11.7
232
757
29
82.0
9.2
233 215 215/234* 234 215/234*
535
34
61.0
8.8
235
164
23
18.0
9.1
530
13
82.0
6.5
233
535
34
61.0
8.8
425
16
78.0
5.4
401
24
51.0
7.9
401
24
51.0
7.9
324
19
48.0
6.8
324 164
19 23
48.0 18.0
6.8 9.1
530 31
13 7
82.0 5.0
6.5 6.2
97 75 31 11
15 6 7 3
21.5 36.0 5.0 6.5
4.5 2.1 6.2 1.7
218 231 212/231* 215 215/234* 329 234 215/234* 258 223 253
425 97 75 11
16 15 6 3
78.0 21.5 36.0 6.5
5.4 4.5 2.1 1.7
218 231 212/231* 235 258 223 329 253 330 214/330*
328*** 330 214/330*
328***
35
Saturday Route
Vehicle Service Hours
Maximum Load
Total Boardings
Saturday Passengers per Revenue Hour
210 213
969 798
23 34
54.0 40.0
17.9 20.0
217
453
12
68.5
6.6
233
436
18
40.0
10.9
219** 330 214/330* 231 212/231* 215 215/234* 212 212/231* 234 215/234*
262
17
42.0
6.2
207
11
27.5
205
21
87
211 214 214/330*
Route
Total Boardings
Vehicle Service Hours
Maximum Load
Passengers per Revenue Hour
213 210 231 212/231*
798 969
34 23
40.0 54.0
20.0 17.9
205
21
18.7
11.0
436
18
40.0
10.9
71
10
8.8
8.1
7.5
233 212 212/231* 330 214/330*
207
11
27.5
7.5
18.7
11.0
217
453
12
68.5
6.6
7
15.0
5.8
262
17
42.0
6.2
71
10
8.8
8.1
87
7
15.0
5.8
55
6
11.5
4.8
219** 215 215/234* 234 215/234*
55
6
11.5
4.8
NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE
211 214 214/330*
NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE
232 235
NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE
232 235
NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE
218 329 258 253
NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE
218 329 258 253
NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE NO WEEKEND SERVICE
223
NO WEEKEND SERVICE
223
NO WEEKEND SERVICE
328***
328***
36
Sunday Route
Total Boardings **
Maximum Load
Sunday
Vehicle Service Hours
Passengers per Revenue Hour
213 210
611 489 N/A
27
40.0 54.0
15.3 9.0
217
277
14
68.5
4.0
233
220 N/A
40.0
5.5
219** 330 214/330* 231 212/231* 215 215/234* 212 212/231* 234 215/234*
132 N/A
42.0
3.1
104 N/A
27.5
3.8
103 N/A
18.7
5.5
44 N/A
27.5
1.6
36 N/A
8.8
4.1
28 N/A
11.5
2.4
Route
Maximum Load
611 489 N/A 103 N/A
18.7
5.5
233 212 212/231*
220 N/A
40.0
5.5
36 N/A
8.8
4.1
217 330 214/330*
277
68.5
4.0
104 N/A
27.5
3.8
132 N/A
42.0
3.1
28 N/A
11.5
2.4
44 N/A
27.5
1.6
211 214 214/330*
211 214 214/330*
232 235
232 235
218 329 258 253
218 329 258 253
223
223
328***
328***
27
Passengers per Revenue Hour 40.0 15.3 54.0 9.0
Vehicle Service Hours
213 210 231 212/231*
219** 234 215/234* 215 215/234*
37
Total Boardings **
14
Supplementary School Trips in Fremont and Newark
AM PM Total Maximum School Boardings * Boardings Boardings Load Totals Route # School City 621 American HS Fremont 22 37 59 37 59 625 Centerville JHS Fremont 8 13 21 13 21 217 Hopkins JHS Fremont 22 37 59 217 14 24 38 624 9 15 24 15 122 623 Horner JHS Fremont 16 26 42 26 42 622 Irvington HS Fremont 22 36 58 36 623 18 30 48 30 106 217 Mission San Jose HS Fremont 30 50 80 624 9 15 24 15 104 219 Newark JHS Newark 4 6 10 620 20 33 53 33 78 627 6 10 16 10 626 Newark Memorial HS Newark 10 17 27 17 628 18 30 48 30 629 54 90 144 90 219 647 Thornton JHS Fremont 37 61 98 61 98 625 Washington HS Fremont 17 29 46 29 46 Subtotals 335 559 Total 894 * 40% of PM Boardings
98 B&A 629 620 621 622 627 628 647 TOTAL:
129 107 57 62 29 43 79 506
Vehicle Service Hours 1.5 0.5 1.7 2.5 1 1 1 9.2
38
