NINTH MEETING OF THE WORKING GROUP ON MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS, 3-8 JUNE 2013 IN BARCELONA, SPAIN
Implementation of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) in Cambodia
by Mr. NOR VANNDY Deputy Director Department NIS/MOP, Cambodia
Outline
Introduction to NTA of Cambodia Cambodian Population Structure Change,1950-2050 Finding Results: Major NTA indicators Conclusion Policy Response
NIS/MOP Cambodia
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Introduction to NTA of Cambodia National Institute of Statistics (NIS) of Cambodia constructed a framework of NTA compilation since 2011. NIS has compiled the NTA of Cambodia as of 2009 in collaboration with the Nihon University Population Research Institute (NUPRI) to Cambodia joined officially of the Global NTA Project in January 2013.
NIS/MOP Cambodia
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Introduction to NTA of Cambodia NTA of Cambodia is compiled in consistency with the National Accounts System of Cambodia to explore the major indicators such: labor income, consumption by population age structure. The first demographic dividends, economic life cycle and support ratio by age is also estimated at this round. NTA of Cambodia in 2009 is recently updated for experimental estimates of per Capita labor income and consumption by age, urban and rural. NIS/MOP Cambodia
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Cambodian Population Structure Change
1950 – 2050
NIS/MOP Cambodia
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1950
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
6
1960
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
7
1970
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
8
1980
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
9
1990
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
10
2010
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
11
2020
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
12
2030
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
13
2040
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
14
2050
250
200
150
100
50
0 Male
50
100
150
200
250
Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
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Shares(%) of Population by Urban and Rural 90
80
80
80
80
79
79
78
78
77
75
72
71
70 60 Urban
50
Rural
40 30 20
20
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
25
28
29
10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 NIS/MOP Cambodia
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Finding Results
Major NTA Indicators
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Per capita Total Consumption and Labor income by age in 2009 5000 TotCons'000KHR
4500
LaborInc '000KHR
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0
10
20
30
40
50
NIS/MOP Cambodia
60
70
80
90 18
Per Capita labor incomes and consumptions by age, urban and rural in 2009, value in riels (Experimental Estimates)
NIS/MOP Cambodia
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The effective Cambodian Support Ratio, 1950-2050 0.85
0.82
0.80 0.75
0.78
0.82
0.81 0.78 0.77
0.75 0.72
0.72
0.73 0.71
0.70 0.65 0.60 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NIS/MOP Cambodia
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The First Demographic dividend, Cambodia 1950-2050 2.00 1.57
1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
-0.50
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 -0.59
-1.00 -1.50 NIS/MOP Cambodia
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Conclusion The support ratio and the first demographic dividend are low which may indicate that productivity in term of labor income is very low because the number of effective consumers are larger than the number of effective producers, which affects economic growth. However, starting 2020, Cambodia will have the potential to increase the number of effective producers and labor income (productivity) because of the age structural changes in the population. NIS/MOP Cambodia
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Policy Implication Since the proportion of the working age group is increasing. Cambodia can take advantage of this demographic dividend to increase its economic growth. To create jobs for Cambodian young working group and also make balance population in the country through the promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI) and local investments such small and medium enterprises. Productivity (labor income) in Cambodia is still low, especially in urban and rural area. Thus, investment in human capital development (education, health etc.) and utilization are very important. NIS/MOP Cambodia
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Policy Implication Encourage capital accumulation during working ages to support retirement consumption during older ages. Cambodia will begin to experience rapid ageing in the not too distant future (will increase from 3.4% in 2009 to 4.5% in 2020 and to 9.6% in 2050) and the current family support system will undergo change. Thus, it is necessary to put in place policies to meet the social security needs of the elderly.
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Policy Implication Social security system, welfare services and other services for elderly should be strengthened and expanded. The aging population in rural areas in Cambodia is rapidly increasing due to the out-migration of younger aged adults. Therefore, special programs should be implemented to support older adults in rural areas.
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THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION !
Q&A
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