CPI press Release June 20171

UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS P.O. Box 7186, Kampala; Tel: 0414 – 706000; Fax: 0414 – 237553; Email: [email protected]; Websit...

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UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS P.O. Box 7186, Kampala; Tel: 0414 – 706000; Fax: 0414 – 237553; Email: [email protected]; Website: www.ubos.org

Consumer Price Index – June 2017 Press Release 1. Annual Inflation The Annual Headline Inflation for the year ending June 2017 is 6.4 percent compared to the 7.2 percent recorded during the year ended May 2017.This represents a 0.8 percentage point drop from the previous month. The drop in Annual Headline Inflation was due to the decline in Annual Food Crops Inflation which recorded 18.1 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 23.1 percent for the year ended May 2017. The driver for the lower Annual Food Crops Inflation were Vegetables Inflation that declined to 9.6 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 15.5 percent registered during the year ended May 2017. Fruits inflation also declined to 32.4 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 37.2 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. The lower inflation for fruits and vegetables is attributed to increased supply to the market during the month. In addition, the Annual Core Inflation declined to 4.9 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 5.1 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. This drop was due to Services Inflation that declined to 3.9 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 4.5 percent recorded during the year ended May 2017. Other Goods Inflation, however, registered 5.6 percent for the year ending June 2017, which is the same as was for the year ended May 2017. The Annual Energy, Fuels and Utilities (EFU) Inflation also decreased to 5.7 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 7.1 percent recorded during the year ended May 2017. The drivers for the decline were Annual Inflation for solid fuels (charcoal & firewood) that recorded 2.7 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 5.7 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. Others were petrol inflation that dropped to 12.1 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 13.7 percent recorded in May 2017, and diesel inflation to 21.9 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 29.4 percent recorded in May 2017. The one year series for the Headline Index and the Annual Inflation rates for the three major components are shown in Graph 1.

25.0

180

20.0

170

15.0

160

10.0

150

5.0

140

-

130

-5.0

120

-10.0

Index

% Change

Graph 1: Uganda Headline Index and Annual Inflation rates for 3 major components, June 2016 – June 2017: (2009/10 = 100)

110 J

J

A

S

Headline Index Core Headline Inflation

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

2017 Food Crops and Related Items Energy Fuel and Utilities

Uganda Bureau of Statistics

Details of the annual inflation by Division are described in Section 1 of the explanatory notes.

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UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS P.O. Box 7186, Kampala; Tel: 0414 – 706000; Fax: 0414 – 237553; Email: [email protected]; Website: www.ubos.org

2. Annual Headline Inflation by Income Groups and Geographical Areas Fort Portal registered the highest Annual Inflation of 9.6 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 8.7 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. This was driven by high Annual Inflation for Food and non-alcoholic beverages that increased to 18.9 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 15.7 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. In addition, the Annual Inflation for Clothing and Footwear rose to 10.0 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 5.1 percent registered during the year ended May 2017. The second highest inflation was registered in Arua at 9.1 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 7.8 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. The main driver was high Annual Inflation for Food and non-alcoholic beverages that registered 18.8 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 16.3 percent for the year ended May 2017. In addition, Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance recorded an annual inflation of 6.5 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 5.6 percent registered for the year ended May 2017. Gulu registered the third highest annual inflation of 8.0 percent for the year ending June 2017 the same rate registered for the year ended May 2017. This was driven by Education Inflation that stood at 6.6 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 3.3 percent that was recorded during the year ended May 2017. In addition, Clothing and Footwear inflation registered 5.6 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 4.5 percent recorded during the year ended May 2017. Annual Inflation for all the ten consumption baskets are shown in Graph 2 and Table 7 below. Graph 2: Annual Inflation by Income Groups and Geographical Areas for the year ending June 2017 and May 2017 Fort Portal

9.6

8.7

Arua

9.1

7.8 8.0 8.0

Gulu Mbale

7.9

Kampala Low Income

7.8 7.1

Mbarara 6.6

Kampala Middle Income All Baskets

6.4

Masaka

6.3 6.2

Jinja 4.3

Kampala High Income -

2.0

4.0 Jun-17

9.1 8.4 8.6

7.0 7.2 7.8

6.8

5.8

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

May-17

Uganda Bureau of Statistics

3. Monthly Inflation

The Monthly Headline Inflation for June 2017 declined by 0.6 percent from the 0.6 percent rise recorded in May 2017. This was due to Monthly Food Crops & Related Items Inflation that declined by 7.5 percent during the month of June 2017 from the earlier drop of 0.3 percent recorded in May 2017. However, the Monthly Core Inflation rose by 0.4 percent in June 2017 from the 0.7 percent rise recorded in May 2017. Also, the Monthly Energy Fuel and Utilities (EFU) Inflation increased by 0.1 percent for the month of June 2017 from the 1.0 percent recorded in May 2017. The detailed Monthly Inflation figures per Division are presented in Section 2 of the explanatory notes.

Ben Paul Mungyereza EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR 2|Page

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR THE INFLATION OF JUNE 2017 SECTION 1: Annual Inflation by COICOP1 Divisions The evolution of Annual Inflation according to COICOP is described in the following paragraphs

01 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages The Annual Inflation for Food and non-alcoholic beverages dropped to 13.5 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 14.8 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. The drop was due to a decline in Annual Food Inflation to 14.3 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 15.6 percent recorded during the year ended May 2017. The Annual Inflation for Non-Alcoholic Beverages registered a 1.0 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 0.8 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. Graph 3 shows the trends of Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages Inflation from December 2014 to June 2017 Graph 3: Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages Annual Inflation Trends; December 2014 – June 2017

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages

Food

Non-alcoholic beverages

02 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics The Annual Inflation for Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics increased by 0.5 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 0.2 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. The increase was due to Annual Inflation of Alcoholic Beverages that increased to 0.3 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 0.1 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. In addition, Tobacco Inflation increased to 2.3 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to the 0.9 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017.

03 Clothing and Footwear The Annual Inflation for Clothing and Footwear decreased to 3.1 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 4.4 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. The decrease was mainly attributed to Clothing Inflation that registered 3.2 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 4.7 percent for the year ended May 2017. In addition, Foot wear Inflation declined to 2.4 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 3.1 percent recorded during the year ended May 2017. Graph 4 shows the trends of clothing and Footwear from December 2014 to June 2017.

COICOP is Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose, which is the United Nations recommended classification of products for the CPI, National Accounts and Household Budget Surveys 1

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Jun-17

Apr-17

May-17

Mar-17

Jan-17

Feb-17

Dec-16

Nov-16

Oct-16

Sep-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Jun-16

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Jan-16

Feb-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Jun-15

Apr-15

May-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0

Graph 4: Clothing and Footwear Annual Inflation Trends; December 2014 – June 2017 16.0 14.0 12.0

% CHANGE

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17

-2.0

Clothing and Footwear

Clothing

Footwear

04 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels comprises of Actual Rentals for Housing, Maintenance & repair of the dwelling, Water Supply, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels The Annual Inflation for Housing, water, electricity, Gas & other fuels decreased to 3.6 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 4.3 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. The decrease was attributed to Inflation of Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels that recorded 4.0 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 5.6 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. In addition, Annual Inflation for Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services relating to the dwelling decreased to 6.4 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 6.7 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. In addition, Annual Inflation for Maintenance and repair of the dwelling decreased to 3.1 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 3.2 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. 05 Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance This Division Comprises of Furniture & furnishings, Carpets & Other Floor Coverings, Household Textiles, Household Appliances, Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils, Tools & Equipment for House, and Goods & Services for Routine Household Maintenance The Annual Inflation for Furnishings, household equipment & routine household maintenance dropped to 5.5 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 5.6 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. This drop was attributed to Annual inflation for Household Appliances that decreased to 3.4 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 5.1 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. In addition, Tools and Equipment for House and Garden inflation decreased to 15.2 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 18.4 percent recorded for year ended May 2017. However, Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils inflation increased to 5.5 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 3.5 percent recorded for year ended May 2017. 06 Health The health Division comprises of Medical Products, Appliances & Equipment, Outpatient Services, and Hospital Services. The Annual Inflation for Health dropped to 1.4 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 1.6 percent registered for the year ended May 2017. The drop was due to Annual Inflation for Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment that dropped to 1.0 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 1.2 percent registered for the year ended May 2017. In addition, the Annual Inflation for Hospital Services dropped to 4.0 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 4.4 percent registered for the year ended May 2017. Also, Outpatient 4|Page

Services inflation decreased to 1.2 percent in June 2017 compared to 1.5 percent recorded for year ended May 2017.

07 Transport Transport division comprises of Purchase of vehicles, Operation of Transport and Personal Equipment and Transport Services. Annual Inflation for Transport declined to 0.2 per cent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 0.8 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. The decline was due to Purchase of Vehicles inflation that dropped to minus 6.3 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to minus 2.4 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. Similarly, Transport Services inflation decreased to minus 0.2 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to minus 0.1 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. Also, Annual Inflation for Operation of Personal Transport Equipment dropped to 5.1 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 5.6 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017.

08 Communication Communication includes Postal services, Telephones and Telefax equipment and Telephone and Telefax services. The Annual Inflation for Communication registered an increase of 0.5 percent for the year ending June 2017 from the minus 0.1 percent recorded for year ended May 2017. The main driver was Telephone and telefax equipment that registered an increase of 2.4 percent for the year ending June 2017 from the minus 0.1 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. Postal Services inflation increased to minus 2.4 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to minus 4.5 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. Telephone and telefax services remained stable at 0.0 percent for the year ending June 2017

09 Recreation and Culture Recreation and Culture comprises of Audio-visual, photographic & Information processing equipment, Recreational & Cultural services, Newspapers, books & Stationery and Package Holidays. Annual inflation for Recreational and Culture dropped to 8.0 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 8.6 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. This drop was due to Recreational and Cultural Services Inflation that registered 22.6 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 23.8 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. In addition, Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment inflation decreased to 1.0 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 2.0 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. Package holidays Inflation increased to 9.0 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 8.0 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017.

10 Education Education comprises of Pre-Primary and Primary Education, Secondary Education, Post-secondary non-tertiary education, Tertiary Education and Education not definable by level. The Annual Inflation for Education decreased to 7.2 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 11.9 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. The decrease was due to Pre-Primary and Primary Education Annual inflation that registered 9.3 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 16.0 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. Secondary Education, Tertiary Education and Education not defined by level recorded 7.8 percent, 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent respectively for the year ending June 2017.

11. Restaurants and Hotels Restaurants and Hotels comprises of catering services and accommodation services. Restaurants and Hotels. Annual inflation for Restaurants and Hotels decreased to 5.8 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 6.4 percent registered for the year ended May 2017. This drop was due to inflation of Catering services that registered 6.1 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 6.7 percent for the year ended May 2017. In

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addition, Accommodation services registered a 5.2 percent for the year ending June 2017compared to 5.7 percent for the year ended May 2017.

12. Miscellaneous Goods and Services Miscellaneous goods and services comprises of Personal Care such as hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, Personal Effects such as Jewellery, clocks and watches, Insurance and Other services such as passport fees, photocopying and radio announcements. The Miscellaneous goods and services Inflation for the year ending June 2017 increased to 3.0 percent compared to 1.4 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. The increase was due to Inflation of Other services n.e.c. that recorded an inflation of 4.1 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to minus 6.2 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017. In addition, the Annual Inflation for Personal care increased to 3.2 percent for the year ending June 2017 compared to 3.0 percent recorded for the year ended May 2017.

SECTION 2: Monthly Inflation by COICOP Divisions The evolution of Monthly Inflation according to COICOP is described in the following paragraphs

01 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages The Monthly Inflation for Food and Non-alcoholic beverages dropped by 2.0 percent for the month of June 2017 from the 1.0 percent increase recorded for May 2017. The drop was due to Food inflation that recorded minus 2.1 percent in June 2017 from the 1.0 percent rise recorded in May 2017. In addition, Non-alcoholic Beverages decreased by 0.1 percent for the month of June 2017 from the 0.4 percent rise recorded in May 2017.

02 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics The Monthly Inflation for Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco registered a 0.0 percent during the month of June 2017 from the minus 0.1 percent recorded in May 2017. The stability was due to Monthly Inflation of Alcoholic Beverages that registered 0.1 percent rise in June 2017 from the 0.0 percent recorded for the month of May 2017. Tobacco inflation registered a minus 0.3 percent in June 2017 the same rate recorded in May 2017.

03 Clothing and Footwear The Monthly Inflation for Clothing and Footwear decreased by 0.5 percent for the month of June 2017 from the 0.3 percent rise recorded in May 2017. This was mainly attributed to decrease in clothing inflation that registered 0.7 percent drop during the month of June 2017 from the 0.3 percent rise recorded in May 2017. Monthly Inflation for Foot wear increased by 0.2 percent for the month of June 2017 from the 0.6 percent rise recorded in May 2017.

04 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels The Monthly Inflation for Housing, water, electricity, Gas & other fuels, registered 0.0 percent in June 2017 from the 0.6 percent rise recorded in May 2017. The stability was attributed to Actual Rentals for Housing inflation that remained stable during the month. Monthly inflation for Maintenance and repair of the dwelling decreased by 0.2 percent in June 2017 from the 0.3 percent rise recorded in May 2017. Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services relating to the dwelling inflation registered 0.2 percent drop in June 2017 from the 3.3 percent rise recorded in May 2017. 05 Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance The Monthly Inflation for Furnishings, household equipment & routine household maintenance decreased by 0.3 percent during the month of June 2017 from the 0.8 percent rise recorded for the month of May 2017. The decrease was due to Household Textiles inflation that registered 1.4 percent drop during the month of June 2017 from the 1.1 percent rise recorded for the month of May 2017. In addition, Household Appliances registered a minus 1.7 percent in June 2017 from the 0.2 percent rise recorded in May 2017. Tools & Equipment for House & Garden Monthly Inflation decreased by 1.0 percent in June 2017 from the 1.0 percent rise for the month of May 2017. 6|Page

06 Health The Monthly Inflation for Health dropped further to minus 0.2 percent during the month of June 2017 from the 0.1 percent drop recorded for the month of May 2017. The decline was due to Monthly Inflation for Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment that recorded minus 0.2 percent in June 2017 from the minus 0.1 percent recorded for the month of May 2017. However, Outpatient Services inflation remained stable during the month of June 2017.

07 Transport Transport division registered a monthly inflation of minus 0.5 percent for the month of June 2017 from the minus 0.5 percent recorded during the month of May 2017. The driver for the decrease was the Monthly Inflation for Purchase of Vehicles that registered minus 3.6 percent during the month of June 2017 from the minus 2.4 percent recorded for the month of May 2017. However, Monthly inflation for Transport Services registered an increase of 0.4 percent during the month of June 2017 from the 0.3 percent drop recorded for the month of May 2017. Also, Operation of Personal Transport Equipment monthly inflation increased by 0.3 percent in June 2017 from the 0.5 percent rise recorded during the month of May 2017.

08 Communication The Monthly Inflation for Communication increased to 0.3 percent during the month of June 2017 from the 0.4 percent drop recorded for the month of May 2017. The main driver for the decrease was Telephone and Telefax Equipment inflation that registered 1.4 percent increase during the month of June 2017 from the 1.7 percent drop recorded for the month of May 2017.

09 Recreation and Culture Monthly inflation for Recreational and Culture decreased by 0.1 percent during the month of June 2017 from the 1.8 percent rise recorded for the month of May 2017. The decrease is attributed to monthly inflation of Recreational and Cultural Services that registered 0.0 percent in June 2017 from the 7.3 percent rise recorded in May 2017. However, Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment remained stable during the month of June 2017 from the 0.1 percent drop recorded in May 2017.

10 Education Monthly inflation for Education increased by 1.2 percent during the month of June 2017 from the 0.0 percent registered for the month ended May 2017. The increase was attributed to Secondary Education that registered 1.3 percent in June 2017 from the 0.0 percent recorded in May 2017. Also, Pre-Primary and Primary Education inflation increased by 1.6 percent in June 2017 from the 0.0 percent recorded in May 2017. However, Education not definable by level inflation dropped by 3.3 percent in June 2017 from the 0.0 percent registered in May 2017.

11 Restaurants and Hotels The Monthly Inflation for Restaurants and Hotels increased by 0.4 percent during the month of June 2017 from the 1.5 percent rise registered for the month May 2017. The increase was due to Accommodation Services inflation that registered 1.1 percent rise during the month of June 2017 from the 0.1 percent rise recorded for the month of May 2017. In addition, Catering Services increased by 0.1 percent during the month of June 2017 from the 2.0 percent rise recorded for the month of May 2017.

12 Miscellaneous Goods and Services Miscellaneous goods and services Inflation for the month of June 2017 increased by 0.1 percent from the 0.6 percent recorded for the month of May 2017. The rise was mainly attributed to Monthly Inflation for Personal care inflation that recorded 0.2 percent during the month of June 2017 from the 0.6 percent rise recorded for the month of May 2017.

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Table 1: Uganda Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation for Core, Food Crops, & EFU: (July 2009 – June 2010) = 100. EFU

Headline

823.9441

Food Crops 101.6003

74.45561

1000.000

Financial Years 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

138.37 142.82 152.37 160.17

157.79 160.04 168.86 189.78

155.92 158.66 169.32 172.88

141.65 145.75 155.31 164.13

4.6 3.2 6.7 5.1

13.2 1.4 5.5 12.4

2.0 1.8 6.7 2.1

5.3 2.9 6.6 5.7

Calendar Years 2014 2015 2016

139.88 147.47 156.26

157.75 168.33 173.47

157.53 163.10 169.46

143.01 150.76 159.00

2.6 5.4 6.0

7.6 6.7 3.1

1.7 3.5 3.9

3.1 5.4 5.5

GROUP

Core

Weights

Core

Food HeadEFU Crops line Monthly % Change

Core

Food HeadEFU Crops line Annual % Change

2015

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

143.23 143.28 144.49 145.17 145.35 146.13 147.87 149.45 150.84 150.75 151.15 152.00

147.70 154.32 166.79 180.46 179.34 166.45 161.14 161.07 171.60 180.08 177.57 173.45

158.98 158.65 158.25 156.51 156.66 157.43 162.82 163.60 163.45 171.58 174.59 174.66

144.85 145.54 147.78 149.60 149.64 149.03 150.33 151.68 153.89 155.28 155.58 155.86

1.2 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.9 -0.1 0.3 0.6

-1.5 4.5 8.1 8.2 -0.6 -7.2 -3.2 -0.0 6.5 4.9 -1.4 -2.3

-0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -1.1 0.1 0.5 3.4 0.5 -0.1 5.0 1.8 0.0

0.7 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.0 -0.4 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.2

3.5 3.7 4.0 4.9 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.1 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.4

-1.4 -2.4 -1.2 4.7 9.8 7.2 5.9 3.8 9.4 14.6 15.2 15.7

2.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 3.6 3.4 2.5 6.3 8.6 9.0

2.9 2.8 3.1 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.6 7.7 8.0 8.4

2016

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

152.76 152.96 154.60 154.54 155.25 156.12 156.31 156.94 157.10 158.44 158.90 160.88

165.32 164.59 167.76 171.71 169.08 163.00 165.61 168.78 179.98 183.13 190.40 192.27

172.87 173.83 170.68 167.97 166.73 169.01 167.60 168.62 170.55 168.37 167.52 169.81

155.53 155.70 157.13 157.29 157.51 157.78 158.09 159.02 160.43 161.69 162.74 164.73

0.5 0.1 1.1 -0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.2

-4.7 -0.4 1.9 2.4 -1.5 -3.6 1.6 1.9 6.6 1.7 4.0 1.0

-1.0 0.6 -1.8 -1.6 -0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.6 1.1 -1.3 -0.5 1.4

-0.2 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.2

6.7 6.8 7.0 6.5 6.8 6.9 5.7 5.0 4.2 5.1 5.2 5.9

11.9 6.7 0.6 -4.8 -5.7 -2.1 2.8 4.8 4.9 1.7 7.2 10.8

8.7 9.6 7.9 7.3 6.4 7.4 2.9 3.1 4.3 -1.9 -4.1 -2.8

7.4 7.0 6.3 5.2 5.3 5.9 5.2 4.8 4.3 4.1 4.6 5.7

175.30 175.59 177.22 176.81 178.51 178.71

164.73 166.14 167.23 167.96 168.93 167.87

-0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.4

-1.6 3.4 3.7 2.9 -0.3 -7.5

3.2 0.2 0.9 -0.2 1.0 0.1

-0.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.6 -0.6

5.2 5.7 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.9

14.5 18.8 20.9 21.6 23.1 18.1

1.4 1.0 3.8 5.3 7.1 5.7

5.9 6.7 6.4 6.8 7.2 6.4

2017

160.75 189.21 Jan 161.66 195.56 Feb 161.94 202.84 Mar 162.13 208.81 Apr 163.22 208.17 May 163.85 192.56 Jun EFU = Energy Fuel and Utilities

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Table 2: Uganda Annual Inflation by COICOP Divisions (June 2016 – June 2017). CY

CY

FY

FY

2015

2016

2015/16

2016/17

Headline

5.4

5.5

6.6

5.7

5.9

5.2

4.8

01

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages

7.3

5.6

8.0

8.6

4.4

4.8

02

Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics

1.5

5.4

4.1

2.8

6.3

03

Clothing and Footwear

6.5

7.8

9.1

5.0

5.9

5.2

7.7

4.1

4.5

2.4

Div.

PARTICULARS

04

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels 05 Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance 06 Health

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

4.3

4.1

4.6

5.7

5.9

6.7

6.4

6.8

7.2

6.4

5.1

4.6

3.4

5.1

7.2

8.8

11.0

11.6

12.5

14.8

13.5

5.7

5.6

5.2

4.7

4.4

3.9

2.2

1.2

-0.2

0.3

0.2

0.5

9.1

7.0

6.7

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.8

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.4

3.1

3.1

7.7

5.5

3.9

4.6

1.8

0.4

1.0

3.0

2.3

3.6

3.5

4.3

3.6

4.3

5.1

6.0

5.6

4.4

3.7

4.0

4.1

4.3

5.5

7.0

5.9

5.4

5.6

5.5

3.1

2.6

2.8

3.8

4.0

4.4

2.6

2.9

2.9

3.2

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.2

1.6

1.4

07

Transport

2.4

4.4

5.1

2.6

5.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

1.5

2.9

5.2

2.2

3.0

3.0

2.8

0.8

0.2

08

Communication

14.0

-3.6

5.7

-3.4

-5.3

-8.0

-11.0

-12.7

-1.3

-1.4

-1.5

-1.7

-1.3

-0.2

0.4

-0.1

0.5

09

Recreation and Culture

1.6

2.2

2.2

3.7

2.5

2.1

1.9

2.0

2.1

1.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.2

6.8

8.6

8.0

10

Education

6.4

14.8

8.5

15.8

17.8

17.8

17.9

14.6

19.7

19.7

19.6

19.6

20.2

11.8

11.9

11.9

7.2

11

Restaurants and Hotels

3.8

6.2

5.6

6.1

6.6

6.1

5.8

5.4

6.1

6.6

6.8

5.8

7.0

5.9

5.3

6.4

5.8

12

Miscellaneous Goods and Services

4.5

6.6

6.4

5.1

6.8

7.0

6.6

6.2

6.1

6.0

5.8

5.9

5.8

4.2

3.6

1.4

3.0

CY = Calendar Year FY = Financial Year Uganda Bureau of Statistics

9|Page

Table 3: Uganda Monthly Inflation by COICOP Divisions (June 2016 – June 2017). Div. PARTICULARS

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Headline

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.2

0.0

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.6

-0.6

01

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages

-0.9

0.9

0.9

2.3

1.0

1.6

1.8

0.0

1.7

1.7

2.0

1.0

-2.0

02

Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics

-0.2

-0.0

0.4

0.4

-0.0

-0.2

0.5

-0.3

-0.0

-0.7

0.4

-0.1

0.0

03

Clothing And Footwear

0.7

-0.6

0.8

0.2

0.5

0.3

1.4

-0.3

0.4

0.7

-0.1

0.3

-0.5

04

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels

0.7

-0.6

0.3

0.7

0.4

-0.3

0.7

1.8

-0.1

0.5

-0.4

0.6

0.0

-0.2

0.3

0.4

-0.1

0.5

0.1

0.8

1.5

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.8

-0.3

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.3

-0.0

0.2

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance 06 Health 05

07

Transport

0.2

-0.2

1.1

0.1

-0.8

1.4

2.7

-2.2

1.2

0.2

-2.3

-0.5

-0.5

08

Communication

-0.2

0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.4

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

0.5

-0.1

0.0

-0.4

0.3

09

Recreation and Culture

0.5

0.1

-0.1

0.7

0.4

0.2

1.0

-0.2

0.3

0.5

3.2

1.8

-0.1

10

Education

5.6

0.0

0.1

-0.1

5.4

-0.0

0.0

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

-0.0

1.2

11

Restaurants and Hotels

0.9

-0.2

0.7

0.3

1.2

0.7

0.6

-0.2

1.1

-0.1

-0.1

1.5

0.4

12

Miscellaneous Goods and Services

-1.5

0.7

0.1

0.0

0.3

-0.2

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.1

Uganda Bureau of Statistics

10 | P a g e

Table 4: Uganda Consumer Price Index (CPI) by COICOP Division: (July 2009 – June 2010) = 100. Weights

Div.

PARTICULARS Headline (all items index)

01

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages

02

Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics Clothing And Footwear

03 04

CY

CY

FY

FY

2015

2016

2015/16

2016/17

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

1,000.0000

150.76

158.98

155.30

164.13

157.78

158.09

159.02

160.43

161.69

162.74

164.73

164.73

166.14

167.23

167.96

168.93

167.87

284.6198

160.74

169.67

165.45

179.61

165.33

166.83

168.26

172.21

173.94

176.66

179.90

179.83

182.88

185.96

189.61

191.52

187.72

27.9824

145.60

153.47

149.86

154.01

153.15

153.10

153.76

154.43

154.36

153.99

154.82

154.42

154.38

153.30

153.89

153.80

153.85

50.8029

171.48

184.85

179.70

188.67

185.08

183.93

185.46

185.87

186.82

187.38

189.92

189.38

190.11

191.40

191.17

191.78

190.78

119.4255

167.34

176.11

173.70

179.09

175.91

174.88

175.44

176.61

177.36

176.82

178.01

181.23

181.12

181.94

181.15

182.22

182.27

38.6638

163.32

170.66

167.08

175.56

170.63

171.14

171.81

171.72

172.50

172.73

174.07

176.60

177.86

178.62

179.12

180.51

180.02

57.5151

150.36

155.03

152.50

156.71

154.57

154.95

155.67

156.17

156.69

156.85

157.34

157.30

157.61

157.19

157.09

156.97

156.71

137.7904

132.46

138.30

136.17

139.72

137.62

137.30

138.81

138.98

137.91

139.80

143.55

140.43

142.05

142.36

139.12

138.47

137.85

06

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance Health

07

Transport

08

Communication

51.8153

110.07

106.14

109.66

105.92

105.52

105.77

105.69

105.71

106.09

106.01

105.87

105.67

106.24

106.11

106.12

105.71

106.04

09

Recreation and Culture

55.1688

122.08

124.75

123.49

128.03

124.38

124.49

124.40

125.31

125.77

125.96

127.21

127.01

127.38

128.03

132.07

134.45

134.32

10

Education

55.0753

157.13

180.44

165.86

192.04

184.02

184.02

184.20

184.06

193.95

193.95

193.95

193.95

194.90

194.90

194.95

194.95

197.30

11

Restaurants and Hotels

57.2272

145.08

154.02

149.48

158.58

154.00

153.68

154.81

155.23

157.03

158.13

159.13

158.77

160.46

160.26

160.08

162.41

163.01

12

Miscellaneous Goods and Services

63.9136

150.63

160.64

155.85

163.81

161.13

162.28

162.46

162.39

162.79

162.43

163.37

164.01

164.61

164.79

164.80

165.80

165.98

05

CY = Calendar Year FY = Financial Year Uganda Bureau of Statistics

11 | P a g e

Table 5: Uganda Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation for Food & Non Food: (July 2009 – June 2010) = 100. GROUP

Weights

CY

CY

FY

FY

2015

2016

2015/16

2016/17

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Headline Index

1000.0000

150.76

158.98

155.30

164.13

157.78

158.09

159.02

160.43

161.69

162.74

164.73

164.73

166.14

167.23

167.96

168.93

167.87

Food

267.7624

160.77

169.90

165.47

180.43

165.31

166.86

168.38

172.60

174.41

177.30

180.73

180.70

183.90

187.19

191.05

193.03

189.01

Non - Food

732.2376

147.10

154.99

151.58

158.17

155.02

154.89

155.59

155.98

157.04

157.42

158.89

158.88

159.65

159.93

159.52

160.11

160.14

Headline

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.2

0.0

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.6

-0.6

Food

-1.0

0.9

0.9

2.5

1.1

1.7

1.9

0.0

1.8

1.8

2.1

1.0

-2.1

Non - Food

0.6

-0.1

0.5

0.2

0.7

0.2

0.9

0.0

0.5

0.2

-0.3

0.4

0.0

Monthly % Change

Annual % Change Headline

5.4

5.5

6.6

5.7

5.9

5.2

4.8

4.3

4.1

4.6

5.7

5.9

6.7

6.4

6.8

7.2

6.4

Food

7.4

5.7

8.1

9.0

4.3

5.1

5.4

4.8

3.5

5.3

7.6

9.4

11.7

12.3

13.2

15.6

14.3

Non - Food

4.7

5.4

6.0

4.3

6.5

5.2

4.6

4.0

4.4

4.3

4.9

4.5

4.7

4.1

4.2

3.9

3.3

CY = Calendar Year FY = Financial Year Uganda Bureau of Statistics

12 | P a g e

Table 6: Uganda Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation for Food Crops, Other Goods, Services and Energy Fuel & Utilities: (July 2009 – June 2010) = 100. Weights Group Headline Index Food Crops and Related Items Other Goods Services Energy Fuel and Utilities

1000.0000 101.6003 482.453 341.491 74.4556

CY 2015 150.76 168.33 150.16 143.67 163.10

CY 2016 158.98 173.47 159.45 151.74 169.45

FY

FY

2015/16

2016/17

155.30 168.86 155.69 147.64 169.32

164.13 189.78 163.54 155.42 172.88

Monthly % Change Headline Food Crops and Related Items Other Goods Services Energy Fuel and Utilities Annual % Change Headline Food Crops and Related Items Other Goods Services Energy Fuel and Utilities

5.4 6.7 5.6 5.2 3.5

5.5 3.1 6.2 5.6 3.9

6.6 5.5 7.3 5.8 6.7

5.7 12.4 5.0 5.3 2.1

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

157.78 163.00 159.04 152.00 169.01

158.09 165.61 159.45 151.87 167.60

159.02 168.78 160.21 152.33 168.62

160.43 179.98 160.37 152.49 170.55

161.69 183.13 160.65 155.33 168.37

162.74 190.40 161.29 155.52 167.52

164.73 192.27 163.45 157.25 169.81

164.73 189.21 164.32 155.71 175.30

166.14 195.56 165.55 156.17 175.59

167.23 202.84 165.89 156.35 177.22

167.96 208.81 166.00 156.65 176.81

168.93 208.17 167.33 157.43 178.51

167.87 192.56 167.99 157.99 178.71

0.2 -3.6 0.4 0.9 1.4

0.2 1.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.8

0.6 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.6

0.9 6.6 0.1 0.1 1.1

0.8 1.7 0.2 1.9 -1.3

0.7 4.0 0.4 0.1 -0.5

1.2 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.4

-0.0 -1.6 0.5 -1.0 3.2

0.9 3.4 0.8 0.3 0.2

0.7 3.7 0.2 0.1 0.9

0.4 2.9 0.1 0.2 -0.2

0.6 -0.3 0.8 0.5 1.0

-0.6 -7.5 0.4 0.4 0.1

5.9 -2.1 7.4 6.0 7.4

5.2 2.8 5.9 5.4 2.9

4.8 4.8 5.4 4.4 3.1

4.3 4.9 4.6 3.5 4.3

4.1 1.7 4.2 6.5 -1.9

4.6 7.2 4.2 6.6 -4.1

5.7 10.8 4.7 7.5 -2.8

5.9 14.5 4.8 5.8 1.4

6.7 18.8 5.6 5.9 1.0

6.4 20.9 4.8 4.7 3.8

6.8 21.6 5.1 4.7 5.3

7.2 23.1 5.6 4.5 7.1

6.4 18.1 5.6 3.9 5.7

CY = Calendar Year FY = Financial Year Uganda Bureau of Statistics

13 | P a g e

Table 7: Uganda Annual and Monthly Inflation by Income Groups and Geographical Areas : Basket Annual % Change Headline Kampala High Income Kampala Middle Income Kampala Low Income Masaka Mbarara Jinja Mbale Gulu Arua Fortportal Monthly % Change Headline Kampala High Income Kampala Middle Income Kampala Low Income Masaka Mbarara Jinja Mbale Gulu Arua Fortportal CY = Calendar Year FY = Financial Year Uganda Bureau of Statistics

CY 2015

CY 2016 5.4 5.7 6.4 5.6 7.1 4.1 5.4 3.5 3.3 4.8 3.9

FY 2015/16 5.5 5.8 4.6 6.4 5.3 5.5 6.1 3.5 4.8 6.9 5.7

6.6 6.7 6.3 7.7 8.5 6.0 6.8 3.7 5.3 6.4 5.6

FY 2016/17 5.7 5.6 5.1 6.4 4.6 6.2 6.1 5.1 5.5 7.3 7.2

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

5.9 6.3 4.5 7.1 5.4 6.2 5.7 4.5 5.7 6.5 6.5

5.2 5.3 4.0 6.6 4.7 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.8 6.3 3.7

4.8 4.7 3.7 6.7 3.9 5.4 6.0 5.0 4.8 6.1 4.2

4.3 4.3 3.1 4.4 3.6 4.4 6.3 4.2 3.9 6.2 5.0

4.1 4.8 3.3 3.7 2.0 3.9 5.4 2.5 4.6 7.2 6.1

4.6 5.4 4.3 4.6 2.6 4.8 5.2 1.9 3.7 6.8 6.4

5.7 6.9 5.5 5.9 3.5 4.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 8.5 7.4

5.9 6.6 6.0 6.5 3.9 5.5 5.0 4.6 5.0 7.9 6.6

6.7 6.9 5.8 8.2 4.2 7.4 7.1 6.1 6.1 8.3 8.9

6.4 6.2 5.8 6.8 5.1 8.2 7.3 5.4 5.1 5.9 10.6

6.8 5.9 6.0 7.5 7.2 8.2 7.2 7.0 7.6 7.0 8.5

7.2 5.8 7.0 8.4 7.8 8.6 6.8 9.1 8.0 7.8 8.7

6.4 4.4 6.6 7.8 6.3 7.1 6.3 7.9 8.0 9.1 9.6

0.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 -1.1 -1.3

0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 1.3 -0.3

0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.7

0.9 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.2 -0.0 1.2 1.3

0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.3

0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.0 1.2 1.2 2.6

1.2 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.1 1.6

-0.0 -0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.5 1.8 0.8 1.2 -2.1

0.9 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.4 2.3 -0.2 1.8

0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 1.9

0.4 -0.4 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.8

0.6 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -0.7 1.8 0.8 2.2 0.1

-0.6 -0.8 -0.2 -0.1 -1.8 -1.2 -0.1 -0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.5

14 | P a g e

Table 8: Uganda Consumer Price Index (CPI) by Income Groups and Geographical Areas : (July 2009 – June 2010) = 100. Basket Headline

Weights

CY

CY

FY

FY

2015

2016

2015/16

2016/17

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

1,000.0000

150.76

158.98

155.30

164.13

157.78

158.09

159.02

160.43

161.69

162.74

164.73

164.73

166.14

167.23

167.96

168.93

167.87

Kampala High Income

313.9763

149.00

157.60

153.55

162.16

156.56

157.27

158.11

159.32

160.73

161.66

164.23

163.22

163.84

164.97

164.36

164.83

163.43

Kampala Middle Income

156.6087

154.76

161.86

158.78

166.88

160.51

160.71

161.65

162.30

164.00

165.53

167.88

168.16

168.52

169.96

171.16

171.52

171.15

Kampala Low Income

100.0688

151.26

160.91

156.82

166.92

160.33

159.95

160.83

161.69

163.47

164.72

167.39

167.70

169.56

170.29

171.45

173.08

172.89

Masaka

94.6932

149.47

157.42

154.83

161.90

155.55

156.01

156.38

158.96

159.76

160.20

162.05

161.59

162.86

164.30

166.90

168.44

165.38

Mbarara

96.7521

149.06

157.26

153.54

163.06

155.76

156.15

157.20

160.17

161.24

161.55

161.94

162.81

165.46

167.30

167.31

168.76

166.81

Jinja

56.5224

149.72

158.85

154.61

164.02

157.13

157.72

158.87

161.37

162.34

162.23

163.63

164.42

167.61

167.78

168.22

167.11

166.96

Mbale

56.7989

145.13

150.26

147.70

155.23

150.06

149.62

150.73

151.09

151.61

151.55

152.49

155.21

157.44

157.54

160.31

163.26

161.88

Gulu

50.4143

151.99

159.23

155.91

164.47

159.20

158.25

160.00

159.92

160.19

162.05

162.57

163.80

167.62

167.06

169.47

170.83

171.94

Arua

36.5573

151.93

162.41

157.10

168.51

160.04

162.09

162.80

164.69

165.08

167.03

168.87

170.83

170.42

170.43

170.81

174.50

174.60

Fortportal

37.6079

162.30

171.55

166.98

178.96

169.12

168.62

169.86

172.14

174.38

178.89

181.77

178.03

181.21

184.66

186.22

186.34

185.35

CY = Calendar Year FY = Financial Year Uganda Bureau of Statistics

15 | P a g e