B U S I N E S S
F O R E C A S T I N G
C E N T E R
May 2013
California & Metro
U N I V E R S I T Y O F T H E PA C I F I C E B E R H A R D T S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S
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2013-2017 California & Metro
May 2013
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"USINESS'PSFDBTUJOH #ENTER Published quarterly by the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business. Copyright © 2013 Business Forecasting Center. All rights reserved.
This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Forecasting Center’s judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Pacific Business Forecasting Center nor The Regents of the University of the Pacific shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Pacific Business Forecasting Center, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
Contents
California Highlights .................................................. 5 Forecast Summary .............................................. 6 - 9 California Forecast Tables ................................. 10 - 19 California Forecast Charts .................................20 - 25 Fresno MSA .....................................................27 - 30 Merced MSA ....................................................31 - 34 Modesto MSA.................................................. 35 - 38 Oakland MSA....................................................39 - 42 Sacramento MSA............................................. 43 - 46 San Francisco MSA ...........................................47 - 50 San Jose MSA ..................................................51 - 54 Santa Cruz MSA .............................................. 55 - 58 Stockton MSA ..................................................59 - 62 Vallejo-Fairfield MSA ......................................... 63 - 66
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
Highlights of the May 2013 California Forecast • California is forecast to experience 2.1% growth in real gross state product in 2013, the 4th consecutive year of roughly 2% growth in a sluggish recovery. We forecast growth will modestly accelerate to 3.0% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015. • California unemployment rate has improved significantly, and has fallen to 9% due to increasing employment and slow growth in the labor force. The improvement in the unemployment rate should slow down as the labor force grows. However, employment in the household survey is growing faster than payrolls, perhaps due to increasing self-employment as the recovery strengthens in sectors such as construction, finance, and professional services. • Payroll jobs are projected to grow at about a 2% rate for the next three years. Nonfarm employment is forecast to recover its pre-recession peak in mid-2015. • Single-family housing starts will begin to recover in 2013 to 40,000 units, and steadily increase to about 100,000 units in 2016. Multi-family housing starts will reach pre-recession levels of 40,000 in 2013, and could increase to 70,000 units by 2016. • With the passage of Proposition 30, state and local government employment has stabilized in 2013. We expect slow growth in state and local government payrolls to resume next year, but the growth rate will remain 1% or less for several years. By 2017, we expect state and local government payrolls will have only recovered 60,000 of the 150,000 jobs lost in the recession. • About 275,000 new Construction jobs are expected to be created over the next four years, about one-quarter of the slightly more than one million jobs California will add by 2017. Despite leading the state in job growth over the next four years, there will still be fewer Construction jobs than before the recession. • Manufacturing employment has been flat for the past 3 years after a decade of significant decline. We project modest 1% growth over the next few years with some of the growth driven by the construction rebound and the increasing demand for building materials. • The Health Services sector was the only private sector to experience consistent job growth throughout the recession, adding 27,500 jobs per year throughout the recession. Health care employment will continue consistent gains in 2013. • Professional Scientific & Technical Services led all industries in job growth in 2011 and had recovered to pre-recession employment levels by 2012. This sector will continue its strong growth and add roughly 35,000 jobs annually from 2013 to 2017.
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
5
FORECAST SUMMARY
California Outlook The State’s economy remains on a slow and steady pace. In 2013, growth is slightly slower than 2012, in part due to the combination of Federal and State tax increases and Federal spending cuts. While the economy didn’t take the full leap off the fiscal cliff into recession, government contraction it is still leading to slow growth in the short-run despite the strong recovery to the housing market. In 2014, we expect the state economy to finally regain 3% real growth in the fifth year of recovery, a remarkably slow pace but not unexpected after a deep financial crisis and depressed housing market. Over the past years, most economic indicators have tracked close to our forecast, but the one economic indicator that has consistently outperformed our expectation is the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate in California dropped to 9.0% in April. A year ago, we were forecasting unemployment would remain at least 10% through the end of 2013. Part of the reason for the unexpectedly rapid decline in the state’s unemployment rate is the slow recovery in the labor force. The low labor force participation rate is a sign of economic weakness, not strength, and we still expect the unemployment rate to drop more slowly as workers come back into the market. However, we can’t ignore that the improving unemployment rate is increasingly reflects stronger employment growth. Over the past year, employment measured in the household survey has been growing faster than non-farm payrolls, the more widely cited measure of job growth. The household survey includes the self-employed and agricultural workers, and it only counts people with more than one job once. As shown in Table 1, employment as measured in the household survey did not decline as much as payroll jobs, indicating that some people turn to self-employment to cope with the job loss and the strong performance of the agricultural sector throughout the recession. In the first few years of recovery, non-farm payroll growth and employment in the household survey tracked together, but in the past year
household survey employment has grown significantly faster than payrolls, making a major contribution to the declining unemployment rate. In fact, California employment in the household survey stands only 72,000 jobs (0.4%) below its pre-recession peak, whereas non-farm payrolls are still about 600,000 jobs, or 4%, below the 2007 peak. It is important to note that the household survey reflects a much smaller sample than the payroll survey, and thus is more volatile and considered a less reliable measure of jobs. At the national level, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the household survey has 4 times larger sampling error than the payroll survey. So some of the divergence in the two data sets may be a statistical blip, but we believe a significant part of it reflects more a rapidly growing number of self-employed in California. This shift makes sense as the recovery has taken hold in the sectors that traditionally have the highest-levels of self-employment: construction, professional and business services and financial sectors such as real estate and insurance. Government, by definition, has no self-employment and isn’t creating jobs and the low self-employment manufacturing sector is not recovering in California, even as it experiences renewed growth in other parts of the country. Another sector with low self-employment, healthcare, continues steady growth, but has been surpassed by more cyclical sectors.
The Regional Outlook In our last forecast, we discussed the unusually large variation in initial job growth estimates across Central Valley metro areas, and predicted that most areas would show about 2% job growth when the data was revised and benchmarked to tax records for 2012. The revision process has now been completed, and Central Valley metro areas all recorded less than 2% job growth for 2012, ranging from 1.8% in Modesto to 0.6% growth in the Fresno area. While this is marginally lower than
Table 1. California Employment Loss and Recovery, Payroll Survey and Household Survey
6
Pre-Recession Peak
Trough
Current (April 2013)
Non-Farm Payrolls
15,213,000 (July 2007)
13,845,000 (Feb 2010) -1,368,000 (-9.0%)
14,602,000 -611,000 (-4.0%)
Employment (Household Survey)
17,023,000 (Jan 2008)
15,945,000 (Nov 2009) -1,078,000 (-6.3%)
16,951,000 -72,000 (-0.4%)
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
FORECAST SUMMARY growth in the country. Last year, we estimated that homes in the region 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 were underpriced by 20-25% and predicted a Real Gross State Product (% change) 2.6 2.1 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.8 price correction over two years before stabilizing. Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.4 Catalyzed by a surge in demand from investors Unemployment Rate (%) 10.5 9.4 8.7 7.7 6.9 6.3 such as the Blackrock hedge fund, home values have Housing Starts (thousands) 55.3 80.2 123.2 163.5 173.5 174.2 appreciated twice as fast as we anticipated and it is hard to see them stabilizing we expected, it is clear that 2012 was the first year of economic in the short-run when there is so much momentum, inventories recovery in the Valley. For 2013, we expect job growth to lift remain low, and mortgage rates are at record lows. Nevertheless, above 2% in Stockton and Merced, but remain below 2% in the we believe investors are beginning to lose interest and price rest of the Valley. growth will slow down as more homes come on the market and new construction gradually recovers. The Sacramento economy Job growth in the Stockton metro area has several drivers, most notably the California Healthcare Facility is nearing completion will also get an income boost in the second half of the year as furloughs finally expire for most state workers which should in Stockton and hiring has already begun for over 2,000 highpaying, permanent jobs. By this time next year, the Department help support some consumer spending. Finally, as discussed in more detail below, the news that the Sacramento Kings are of Corrections health facility should be the largest employer staying in town has boosted optimism in the economy and in the City. Elsewhere in the County, growth has picked up in should begin boosting downtown construction in 2014. Thus, the Tracy area as Amazon develops there new facility, and Bay the tepid job growth in the Sacramento somewhat understates Area growth is just beginning to spill over the pass again and is its improving prospects and the forecast could see an upward driving renewed building in the southern half of San Joaquin revision in our next update. County, especially around Mountain House. After five years of 800 to 1000 housing starts each year, San Joaquin County Both the San Jose and San Francisco MSA have now fully (Stockton MSA) is on pace for 1800 new housing units in 2013 recovered to their pre-recession level of employment, a milestone and should lift up to 2500 by 2015. that the Oakland MSA and the state as a whole is not projected Merced will exceed 2% job growth in part due to the fact that it to reach until 2015. While the East Bay had a deeper recession is a small existing employment base so that small changes make and has been slower to recover, the Oakland MSA exceeded 2% job growth for 2012 and is now firmly on a recovery path. a big impact. However, the continuing growth of UC-Merced The San Francisco MSA led the way with 4% job growth in is driving steady growth in the area, and its newly amended 2012, but we expect the pace to slow slightly to 2.6% this year master plan will allow the campus to continue growth with compact and flexible spaces despite limited state capital funding. as unemployment falls below 6%. The Bay Area continues to lead the state economy, but we expect growth to gradually slow UC-Merced expects to its enrollment goal of 10,000 students as high housing costs, tight labor markets characterized by low by 2020. Fresno was a year slower than its northern neighbors in dipping into recession and appears to be a step slower coming unemployment and physical constraints to growth. Slower job growth in 2014 and beyond should not be interpreted as a weak out. However, Fresno job growth should exceed 1% in 2013 economy, but rather reflects a region that will have achieved a and is expected to soon receive a boost from the beginning of high-speed rail construction that should send job growth to 2% full recovery from the Great Recession. or higher in 2014. Table 2. California Annual Forecast Summary
With the Campbell’s Soup closing and its Government employment base not expected to add jobs, it may be another year before Sacramento exceeds 2% job growth. However, the capital’s economy is finally poised for a boost. Sacramento’s real estate recovery is probably the most remarkable in the state. Zillow estimates Sacramento home values have increased 25% in the past year, matching Phoenix for the fastest home price
Stockton Bankruptcy Update: Moving From Eligibility to Plan of Adjustment In the Midst of a Heated Tax Debate
The City of Stockton has successfully navigated the eligibility phase of its bankruptcy case, and now faces the more difficult task of crafting an acceptable plan of adjustment to leave bankruptcy protection. The City will attempt to get the court
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FORECAST SUMMARY
to accept a plan of adjustment that leaves pensions intact while impairing its capital market creditors (CMCs). Avoiding cuts to pensions in bankruptcy is a practical and logical strategy by the City to avoid a) a lengthy legal challenge to bankruptcy by CalPERS, b) further disruption of personnel and recruiting, and c) to avoid enormous up-front costs of transitioning retirement plans if CalPERS is terminated. To successfully make the case for avoiding pension cuts over the CMCs objections, the City must get the court to accept that the elimination of retiree medical coverage is a sufficient loss on the debt the City owes its retirees and current employees, and thus does not unfairly discriminate against the CMCs.
and pensions administered by CalPERS which it proposes to leave unchanged. Estimating the value of these liabilities depends on complex and sometimes controversial actuarial assumptions. The City estimates the retiree health liability it is eliminating at roughly $500 million. As for the unfunded pension liability, terminating the City’s CalPERS plan would require a roughly $1 billion immediate payment to fund benefits that have already accrued to its employees and retirees, a reasonable estimate of the pension liability. Using these figures, the City’s proposal to eliminate retiree healthcare while maintaining CalPERS cuts its debt to retirees and employees by roughly one-third ($500m/$500m + $1b).
Some rough figures can help illustrate whether the City’s ask of its retirees is proportional to its ask of the CMCs . The City’s unfunded liabilities for post-employment benefits consist of retiree healthcare obligations, which it proposes to eliminate,
The City would likely disagree with this rough estimate of one-third, and argue that employees and retirees have taken deeper losses. The City claims that employees take an even higher share of losses by including the difference in pay they
Table 3. Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary Metro Area
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (% change)
Unemployment Rate (%)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sacramento
1.7
1.6
1.9
2.3
2.3
10.5
9.4
8.9
8.1
7.4
Stockton
1.4
2.6
2.7
2.3
2.1
15.0
13.5
12.4
10.9
10.0
Modesto
1.8
1.1
1.7
1.9
2.0
15.5
14.2
13.3
12.0
10.9
Merced
1.5
2.9
2.4
2.5
2.3
17.4
15.6
14.5
13.0
12.4
Fresno
0.6
1.2
2.0
2.1
2.0
15.2
13.8
13.1
11.9
11.0
California
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
10.5
9.4
8.7
7.7
6.9
NOTE: Sacramento MSA includes Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo counties. Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Modesto MSAs correspond to San Joaquin, Merced, Fresno and Stanislaus counties. *The unusually large swings in our employment forecast for Stockton, Modesto, and Merced for 2012 and 2013 are a result of our anticipating major revisions to 2012 employment data for Stockton, Modesto, and Merced in March. Our spring forecast will reflect revised data, and we anticipate a smoother path for employment growth for these three metro areas.
Table 4. Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary Metro Area
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (% change)
Unemployment Rate (%)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
San Francisco
4.0
2.6
2.0
1.8
1.6
7.1
5.8
5.1
4.5
4.0
San Jose
3.4
2.5
2.1
2.3
2.3
8.5
7.2
6.2
5.2
4.4
Oakland
2.3
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
9.1
8.1
7.3
6.1
5.3
Santa Cruz
1.9
3.9
1.9
1.8
1.6
10.9
9.6
8.8
7.6
6.8
Vallejo
1.7
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
10.1
8.9
8.0
6.8
6.1
California
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
10.5
9.4
8.7
7.7
6.9
NOTE: San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties. Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda counties. San Jose MSA includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties. Vallejo and Santa Cruz MSAs correspond to Solano and Santa Cruz counties. *The unusually large swings in our employment forecast for Santa Cruz in 2012 and 2013 is a result of our anticipating major revisions to 2012 employment data for Santa Cruz in March. Our spring forecast will reflect revised data, and we anticipate a smoother path for Santa Cruz employment growth in that forecast update.
8
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
FORECAST SUMMARY
would have earned if the previous, unsustainable contracts had been extended. While this is a loss to what employees may have expected, creditors contend that these contracts are expired and the City has no obligation to maintain above market compensation indefinitely. Furthermore, the CMCs view health and pension benefits as separate obligations, and argue that the City’s proposal is inequitable because pensions receive a 0% loss. Thus, the one-third loss to combined post-employment benefits is in between the City’s and the CMC’s assessment, and is a reasonable estimate to begin thinking about how the court may view equity. How would this roughly one-third loss of post-employment benefits compare to the loss asked of the CMCs? In its initial ask to creditors in pre-bankruptcy negotiations, the City described its initial offer as a 45% present value loss on most restructured, secured bonds, and an 82% loss on its unsecured pension obligation bonds, its largest single bond debt. Even these losses could be viewed as understatements by creditors since they include some payments from restricted sources outside the general fund, and it is only the general fund that is bankrupt. For most bonds, the City proposed to permanently eliminate general fund payments, a 100% cut in general fund contributions. Although bankruptcy does allow the City to discriminate between creditors and a case can be made for disproportionate losses for certain bonds, it will be difficult for the city to successfully argue CMC losses of this magnitude are proportional and fair compared to the loss to unfunded postemployment benefits. Thus, in order for the court to accept the City’s plan of adjustment without impairing pensions, the City will likely need to improve its initial offer to the CMCs. Imposing a more proportional loss on the CMCs would require an increase in current bond payments of up to $10 million per year, and the City also faces a roughly $10 million structural deficit even after accounting for bankruptcy savings. That means the City will need to generate about $20 million in new revenue to finance a plan of adjustment and maintain services at their current minimal level, which would require about a half-cent increase in the sales tax rate. A three-quarter cent increase in the sales tax rate would push the city to the maximum allowed by state law, and allow the City to begin restoring police and other essential City services from minimal levels with the help of the bankruptcy restructuring. We expect the City’s proposed plan of adjustment will follow this general outline. The City’s budget proposal for 2013-14 calls for the City Council to consider putting a tax increase before voters this November, but a specific proposal on the amount and structure of any City Council supported tax initiative has yet to be announced. The City’s creditors will argue that more sales tax increase should go towards their debt,
while the City will argue that higher services will be necessary to secure voter approval for higher taxes, and that current service levels are dangerously low. In addition to a sales tax, the City could propose an increase to the utility users tax. Raising the utility user tax will be more challenging than a sales tax since these taxes are unpopular with voters, the City’s rate is already above average, and many neighboring cities do not levy any utility user taxes. Complicating matters further, Mayor Silva and his supporters are proposing a competing initiative to put a dedicated halfcent sales tax for police on the November ballot. The tax revenue from the Mayor’s Safe Streets initiative would be offlimits to the City’s creditors. Safe Streets would fund a much needed increase in the police force, but it could also end any hope the City has for a quick exit from bankruptcy. Passing a long-term dedicated tax would legitimately raise “bad faith” negotiation objections from the City’s creditors. Furthermore, the Safe Streets proposal does not pay the full costs of the police spending it mandates, and would therefore add new obligations on the City’s troubled general fund to cover these shortfalls. While some criticisms of Safe Streets may be overdone, it would create real risks for the long-run City budget and bankruptcy case. In the short-run, the City would be unable to finance even a partial repayment of its bond creditors which would likely force pension cuts onto the negotiating table, and lead to a longer and more costly bankruptcy case. The City Manager’s approach of a general tax increase that is integrated with the bankruptcy plan of adjustment is a more financially sound long-term plan, but it faces a number of risks and challenges as well. Voters may be hesitant to approve it if they are uncertain about how much of the money will be available to pay for police officers due to the on-going bankruptcy case, especially with the Mayor’s proposal on the same ballot. Therefore, it appears Stockton may be headed towards a divisive November election over competing sales tax initiatives with huge implications for the bankruptcy case and the city’s longterm future. Conventional political wisdom is that competing tax initiatives on the same ballot doom both to failure, although the Governor’s Prop. 30 victory in the fall proved the conventional wisdom is not always right. In Stockton, there may be simply too many unknowns at this point, both about the bankruptcy plan of adjustment and the long-run fiscal and legal effects of the Safe Streets proposal, for voters to support any long-duration or permanent tax initiatives. It’s going to be an interesting election, and with the high-profile bankruptcy case and it occurring in an odd year without State or Congressional elections, it will attract an unusually large amount of interest for a municipal sales tax vote.
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FORECAST SUMMARY
Sacramento Keeps the Kings and Will Build a Downtown Arena In a significant upset, the NBA has rejected the Sacramento Kings proposed sale and move to Seattle. After several years where it seemed like a franchise move was imminent, the Kings have been sold to a group of investors who will keep the Kings’ in Sacramento and build a new arena on the site of the struggling Downtown Plaza shopping mall. The new Sacramento arena proposal is a significant improvement over last year’s proposal that was rejected by the former owners of the Kings, the Maloof family. While many Sacramento residents were irate with the Maloofs for backing out of last year’s deal, in hindsight, they should be thankful for their change of heart. Below is the closing excerpt of what we wrote a year ago about the collapsed arena deal. “The Mayor has worked hard to retain the Kings and has come up with the best proposal he could, one that pushes the City to its financial limit, and yet still doesn’t appear to be a better deal for the Kings than the alternatives, including the status quo. The new arena is simply infeasible without an owner and/or a City that is both wealthy and passionate enough about pro basketball in Sacramento to overlook significant financial risks. Judging from recent events, both sides seem to have an abundance of passion, but a shortage of wealth.” — California and Metro Forecast, April 2012. In contrast to last year, the latest proposal should produce more value for both the City and the investment group. While the City isn’t any wealthier or more passionate, the new investment group has both more wealth and more passion for owning a professional basketball team and keeping it in California’s capital. The new deal shifts some of the risks from the City to the investors, and there is more excitement and potential benefits for the City with the Downtown Plaza location and its potential to catalyze the City’s existing commercial core. In addition to keeping the Kings, the project has the potential to accomplish broader City goals and help other City assets like the convention center in a way that other proposed locations such as the railyards or Cal Expo would not. While the risks are lower and the benefits are larger for the City, the arena will still receive a significant subsidy and will be an on-going burden for the general fund. Critics of the deal are correct that the non-binding term sheet approved by the City Council understated the level of subsidy and had an overly optimistic assessment of the “backfill” of parking revenues diverted from the General Fund. Financial details are still under development, but we estimate that arena financing will probably cost the City’s general fund about $8-12 million annually over 10
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
thirty years, representing about 2% of the general fund budget. The City will probably structure the arena bonds so that the general fund impact will initially be on the low end of this range and grow over time. We have been frequently asked to compare the Sacramento arena subsidy to Stockton, where a publically financed arena has contributed to Stockton’s bankruptcy. Sacramento’s arena subsidy appears to be slightly higher than Stockton’s both in absolute size and as a share of the general fund budget. While that is a concern, it should be recognized that the Stockton Arena is a very small contributor to that City’s bankruptcy. However, the Stockton Arena was indicative of a period of exceptionally poor financial planning for the city, characterized by overly-generous employee contracts with costs that exploded over time, and enormous borrowing for other projects and risky pension bonds. Some have said that the generous, short-sighted contracts and other borrowing was a way for Stockton City leaders to reduce potential opposition from employee unions and others for the spending on the waterfront stadiums. Similarly, the costs of the arena to Sacramento are manageable as long as it doesn’t lead to a broader era of excessive debt and subsidies and poor financial management. But giving out a high profile subsidy to one entity inevitably leads to requests from others, and makes it more difficult to say no. Already, the Sacramento arts community has used the arena subsidies to request increased support for their venues that already receive generous City subsidies. Public employee unions will undoubtedly raise the costs of the arena when they are asked to make concessions in contract negotiations. In a few years, the City’s taxpayers will be more reluctant to support extending sales taxes if they feel the arena deal did not work out favorably. So the pressure will be on Mayor Johnson and other Sacramento leaders. They need to finalize a financial agreement that is fair to its citizens without hidden or escalating costs, and deliver a project that lives up to its promise of transforming the City center.
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Bil. $) 1387.7 Calif. (%Ch) 5.7 Real Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) 1387.5 (%Ch) 2.7 Real Disposable Income (Bil. 2005$) 1210.1 (%Ch) 1.2 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 1689.0 Calif. (%Ch) 7.6 Real GSP (Bil. 2005$) 1688.9 Calif. (%Ch) 4.2
1495.5 7.8 1455.8 4.9 1263.8 4.4 1798.2 6.5 1745.4 3.4
1566.4 4.7 1484.7 2.0 1280.6 1.3 1870.9 4.0 1763.5 1.0
1610.7 2.8 1478.5 -0.4 1294.1 1.1 1900.5 1.6 1756.1 -0.4
1516.7 -5.8 1391.5 -5.9 1243.5 -3.9 1828.8 -3.8 1673.3 -4.7
1564.2 3.1 1408.0 1.2 1250.9 0.6 1877.6 2.7 1701.9 1.7
1645.1 5.2 1445.8 2.7 1268.9 1.5 1958.9 4.3 1735.4 2.0
1711.1 4.0 1477.7 2.2 1293.0 1.9 2049.1 4.6 1780.5 2.6
1756.5 2.7 1501.7 1.6 1305.0 0.9 2120.8 3.5 1817.3 2.1
1847.2 5.2 1558.5 3.8 1351.2 3.5 2222.2 4.8 1871.8 3.0
1935.8 4.8 1609.9 3.3 1393.4 3.1 2329.7 4.8 1931.8 3.2
2030.0 4.9 1662.0 3.2 1436.5 3.1 2433.5 4.5 1986.4 2.8
2131.5 5.0 1716.6 3.3 1484.3 3.3 2541.3 4.4 2042.3 2.8
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment 1.9 1.4 Labor Force 1.0 0.8 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 5.4 4.9 U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 4.6
0.9 1.3 5.3 4.6
-0.4 1.6 7.2 5.8
-4.3 0.1 11.3 9.3
-0.6 0.6 12.3 9.6
1.1 0.4 11.8 8.9
2.0 0.5 10.5 8.1
2.3 1.1 9.4 7.7
1.8 1.0 8.7 7.3
2.0 0.9 7.7 6.7
1.7 0.9 6.9 6.3
1.4 0.8 6.3 6.0
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S. 1.7 California 1.9 Mining 3.1 Construction 6.5 Manufacturing -1.2 Nondurable Goods -2.1 Durable Goods -0.7 Trans. Warehs. & Utility 1.0 Wholesale Trade 3.2 Retail Trade 2.5 Financial Activities 2.8 Prof. and Business Services 3.0 Edu. & Health Services 1.7 Leisure & Hospitality 2.5 Information -1.8 Federal Gov't. -0.3 State & Local Gov't. 1.1
1.1 0.8 6.5 -4.3 -1.7 -1.2 -2.1 2.3 2.2 0.5 -3.4 1.0 3.5 2.7 1.1 -0.7 2.0
-0.6 -1.3 7.9 -11.8 -2.6 -2.0 -3.0 -0.6 -1.7 -2.9 -6.1 -1.1 3.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 1.0
-4.4 -6.0 -9.2 -21.1 -10.1 -8.2 -11.2 -6.0 -8.3 -7.2 -7.0 -8.0 1.6 -4.4 -7.3 1.1 -1.8
-0.7 -1.0 3.0 -9.9 -3.0 -2.4 -3.4 -1.6 -0.1 -0.5 -2.9 0.7 1.6 -0.1 -2.9 6.8 -2.1
1.2 1.2 7.4 0.5 0.5 -0.3 1.0 1.7 2.2 1.5 0.3 2.9 2.7 2.3 0.3 -4.6 -1.4
1.7 2.1 4.5 4.9 0.4 0.3 0.6 2.5 2.8 1.8 1.7 4.9 2.4 4.1 0.4 -2.0 -1.3
1.5 1.7 -0.1 7.1 -0.6 -2.1 0.3 1.5 2.8 0.1 1.6 3.6 1.9 3.4 1.4 -3.3 0.0
1.6 1.8 1.5 8.5 1.6 0.0 2.5 2.4 1.6 -0.2 1.2 4.4 1.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 0.5
1.8 1.9 0.8 12.5 1.2 -0.2 1.9 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.5 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.3 -1.4 0.7
1.7 1.8 0.4 11.7 1.0 -0.1 1.6 2.9 2.0 0.4 -0.9 3.7 2.0 -0.3 2.4 -2.3 0.8
1.3 1.4 0.6 5.5 0.6 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.8 0.4 -1.3 2.9 2.2 -0.2 1.5 -1.5 1.0
Population and Migration Population (Ths.) (%Ch) Net Migration (Quarterly Rate, Ths.) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) Housing Starts Single Family Housing Starts Multi-Family Consumer Prices (%Ch)
1.8 1.8 6.3 3.2 -1.0 -0.6 -1.2 1.8 4.0 1.3 0.9 3.8 1.8 3.0 -1.6 -0.6 1.5
35848.2 36052.0 36302.1 36648.9 37012.0 37379.8 37728.9 38087.1 38454.0 38829.1 39212.0 39601.8 39997.2
0.7 -23.1
0.6 -28.5
0.7 -9.1
1.0 8.6
1.0 16.5
1.0 17.3
0.9 19.2
0.9 23.0
1.0 23.6
1.0 23.6
1.0 23.3
1.0 22.9
1.0 22.3
194.5 152.8 41.6
154.1 113.7 40.4
102.1 70.1 32.0
60.9 36.5 24.4
36.0 26.7 9.3
39.1 26.8 12.3
45.6 23.8 21.8
55.3 27.8 27.4
80.2 40.3 40.0
123.2 65.3 58.0
163.5 96.6 66.9
173.5 102.0 71.5
174.2 97.6 76.6
3.0
3.5
3.1
3.3
-0.3
1.1
2.8
2.2
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.9
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
11
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 1684.1 Calif. (%Ch) 2.8 Real Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) 1460.6 (%Ch) 0.4 Real Disposable Income (Bil. 2005$) 1278.2 (%Ch) 0.1 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2021.5 Calif. (%Ch) 5.3 1768.5 Real GSP (Bil. 2005$) Calif. (%Ch) 2.9
1696.6 3.2 1469.0 1.5 1285.5 1.2 2034.6 4.6 1773.6 2.6
1716.5 4.1 1480.4 2.6 1295.3 2.3 2065.6 4.8 1788.0 3.0
1747.2 6.0 1500.9 4.3 1313.0 4.0 2074.9 3.7 1792.0 1.9
1727.1 2.6 1480.4 1.4 1289.9 0.9 2094.5 3.6 1805.8 2.1
1745.6 2.9 1495.6 1.8 1300.8 1.2 2107.6 3.6 1809.5 2.0
1764.5 2.8 1507.2 1.8 1308.0 1.0 2127.3 3.0 1818.9 1.7
1788.9 2.4 1523.7 1.5 1321.3 0.6 2154.1 3.8 1834.9 2.4
1815.5 5.1 1540.3 4.0 1334.2 3.4 2180.8 4.1 1849.0 2.4
1836.1 5.2 1551.7 3.7 1345.6 3.4 2209.0 4.8 1864.1 3.0
1858.4 5.3 1565.1 3.8 1357.2 3.8 2236.8 5.1 1879.8 3.3
1878.7 5.0 1576.9 3.5 1367.7 3.5 2262.3 5.0 1894.4 3.2
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment 1.9 2.0 Labor Force 0.6 0.6 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 10.8 10.7 U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 8.3 8.2
2.1 0.4 10.4 8.0
2.0 0.4 9.9 7.8
2.2 0.8 9.6 7.8
2.4 1.1 9.5 7.7
2.5 1.3 9.4 7.7
2.0 1.3 9.3 7.6
1.7 1.1 9.1 7.5
1.8 1.0 8.8 7.4
1.9 1.0 8.6 7.2
2.0 0.9 8.3 7.1
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S. 1.8 California 1.7 Mining 8.0 Construction 3.9 Manufacturing 0.5 Nondurable Goods 0.1 Durable Goods 0.6 Trans. Warehs. & Utility 2.1 Wholesale Trade 2.3 Retail Trade 2.1 Financial Activities 0.7 Prof. and Business Services 4.5 Edu. & Health Services 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 3.2 Information -1.0 Federal Gov't. -1.9 State & Local Gov't. -1.7
1.7 2.3 3.9 4.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 2.7 2.8 1.6 2.2 5.2 2.5 4.5 0.7 -2.6 -1.0
1.6 2.3 -1.0 6.2 0.4 -0.3 0.8 3.0 3.8 1.6 2.2 4.6 2.7 4.4 1.4 -1.7 -1.1
1.5 1.9 -1.2 5.4 -0.9 -2.3 0.0 2.0 3.6 0.3 2.2 3.6 2.3 4.6 1.6 -2.2 -0.4
1.5 1.7 -1.2 7.3 -1.0 -2.3 -0.2 1.5 3.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 2.4 3.4 1.5 -3.6 -0.1
1.5 1.6 -0.7 8.0 -0.4 -2.1 0.7 1.2 2.7 0.3 1.2 3.2 1.7 2.9 1.6 -3.8 0.1
1.5 1.6 2.6 7.5 -0.1 -1.7 0.8 1.2 1.9 -0.6 1.4 3.9 1.3 2.8 0.9 -3.8 0.4
1.4 1.7 1.8 6.9 1.3 0.2 2.0 2.3 1.8 -0.1 1.1 4.1 1.7 1.3 1.6 -2.3 0.2
1.5 1.7 1.6 8.1 1.4 0.0 2.3 2.4 1.6 -0.4 1.3 4.3 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.3
1.7 1.8 1.5 9.0 1.9 -0.1 3.0 2.5 1.5 -0.3 1.3 4.6 1.3 0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.6
1.7 1.9 1.3 10.1 1.9 0.0 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.0 1.2 4.7 1.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.7
Population and Migration Population (Ths.) (%Ch) Net Migration (Ths.) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Th Housing Starts Single Family Housing Starts Multi-Family Consumer Prices (%Ch)
12
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
1.7 2.1 6.9 4.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.6 5.4 1.9 4.4 0.5 -1.9 -1.5
37951.7 38041.4 38131.9 38223.2 38315.1 38407.4 38500.2 38593.5 38687.2 38781.5 38876.3 38971.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 23.6 23.6 23.5 22.1 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6
42.9 21.9 21.0
55.1 25.4 29.7
60.9 29.5 31.4
62.1 34.5 27.7
65.6 33.1 32.5
77.3 39.8 37.5
84.3 42.4 42.0
93.8 45.8 47.9
105.3 52.2 53.1
119.0 61.8 57.2
129.2 69.7 59.6
139.4 77.4 62.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.7
1.7
1.7
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 1903.3 Calif. (%Ch) 4.8 Real Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) 1591.6 (%Ch) 3.3 Real Disposable Income (Bil. 2005$) 1376.8 (%Ch) 3.2 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2290.6 Calif. (%Ch) 5.0 1909.7 Real GSP (Bil. 2005$) Calif. (%Ch) 3.3
1925.0 4.8 1604.2 3.4 1388.2 3.2 2316.7 4.9 1924.5 3.2
1946.8 4.8 1616.6 3.3 1399.8 3.1 2343.1 4.8 1939.7 3.2
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment 2.0 2.0 Labor Force 0.9 0.9 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 8.0 7.8 U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 6.9 6.8 Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S. 1.8 California 1.9 Mining 1.2 Construction 11.1 Manufacturing 1.6 Nondurable Goods -0.1 Durable Goods 2.5 Trans. Warehs. & Utility 2.7 Wholesale Trade 1.6 Retail Trade 0.2 Financial Activities 1.1 Prof. and Business Services 4.6 Edu. & Health Services 1.1 Leisure & Hospitality 0.2 Information -1.1 Federal Gov't. -0.6 State & Local Gov't. 0.7 Population and Migration Population (Ths.) (%Ch) Net Migration (Ths.) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Th Housing Starts Single Family Housing Starts Multi-Family Consumer Prices (%Ch)
1.8 1.9 1.0 12.2 1.5 -0.1 2.4 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.8 4.5 1.3 0.1 -0.3 -1.7 0.7
1968.0 4.8 1627.3 3.2 1409.0 3.0 2368.6 4.7 1953.2 3.1
1995.9 4.9 1644.9 3.3 1420.4 3.2 2394.1 4.5 1966.3 3.0
2018.3 4.8 1656.1 3.2 1430.3 3.0 2420.0 4.5 1979.2 2.8
2040.9 4.8 1667.4 3.1 1441.8 3.0 2445.9 4.4 1992.7 2.7
2065.0 4.9 1679.8 3.2 1453.4 3.1 2473.8 4.4 2007.5 2.8
2092.9 4.9 1696.0 3.1 1464.5 3.1 2500.6 4.4 2020.9 2.8
2118.8 5.0 1710.0 3.3 1477.6 3.3 2527.6 4.4 2035.1 2.8
2144.5 5.1 1723.6 3.4 1491.1 3.4 2554.5 4.4 2049.3 2.8
2170.1 5.1 1736.9 3.4 1503.8 3.5 2582.3 4.4 2063.9 2.8
2.0 0.9 7.6 6.6
1.9 0.9 7.3 6.5
1.9 0.9 7.1 6.4
1.8 0.9 7.0 6.3
1.7 0.9 6.8 6.2
1.6 0.9 6.7 6.2
1.5 0.8 6.5 6.1
1.4 0.8 6.4 6.0
1.4 0.8 6.3 6.0
1.4 0.7 6.1 5.9
1.8 1.9 0.7 12.9 0.7 -0.3 1.3 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.4 4.5 1.4 0.1 0.9 -1.6 0.6
1.8 2.0 0.3 14.0 0.9 -0.2 1.5 3.0 2.0 0.3 -0.1 4.4 1.4 0.0 1.6 -1.5 0.6
1.8 2.0 0.1 14.0 1.0 -0.1 1.7 2.9 2.0 0.5 -0.5 4.2 1.8 -0.2 2.4 -2.5 0.7
1.7 1.9 0.1 12.8 1.1 0.0 1.7 2.9 2.0 0.4 -0.9 3.9 2.0 -0.2 2.4 -2.4 0.8
1.6 1.8 0.5 11.1 1.0 0.0 1.6 2.9 2.0 0.4 -1.1 3.4 2.1 -0.3 2.6 -2.3 0.8
1.5 1.7 0.7 8.9 0.9 -0.1 1.5 2.8 2.1 0.4 -1.2 3.2 2.3 -0.4 2.2 -2.2 0.9
1.4 1.6 0.9 7.4 0.8 -0.1 1.2 2.7 2.0 0.5 -1.3 3.1 2.1 -0.3 1.9 -1.6 0.9
1.4 1.5 0.7 6.0 0.6 0.0 1.0 2.7 1.9 0.4 -1.3 3.0 2.1 -0.2 1.6 -1.5 1.0
1.3 1.4 0.4 4.7 0.5 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.8 0.3 -1.2 2.9 2.2 -0.1 1.3 -1.5 1.0
1.2 1.3 0.3 3.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 2.6 1.7 0.2 -1.3 2.7 2.2 -0.1 1.1 -1.5 1.1
39067.3 39163.5 39260.1 39357.2 39454.6 39552.5 39650.7 39749.4 39848.4 39947.8 40046.9 40145.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.0
150.3 85.8 64.6
160.7 95.0 65.7
170.2 102.2 68.0
172.9 103.6 69.4
173.0 102.7 70.3
173.6 102.2 71.4
173.5 101.8 71.7
173.9 101.3 72.6
175.0 100.3 74.7
174.3 98.1 76.2
173.3 96.4 76.9
174.2 95.8 78.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.8
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
13
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 3. Employment Quarterly 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products
14284.9 14361.4 14439.1 14512.4 14553.3 14611.1 14671.1 14738.3 14800.2 14863.2 14939.9 15011.5 1251.2
1255.8
1253.9
1253.2
1240.4
1243.1
1249.3
1251.5
1256.7
1260.8
1272.6
1275.0
780.5
784.2
783.1
784.6
780.6
782.4
788.2
790.9
795.9
800.2
811.8
814.3
19.7
19.7
19.6
19.5
19.5
19.9
20.8
21.7
22.8
24.1
25.6
27.1
Computer & Electronics
272.9
272.4
270.9
270.8
270.4
267.2
267.0
266.2
265.8
265.3
272.5
270.2
Transportation Equipment
101.3
102.6
103.1
103.1
101.7
103.1
104.1
104.9
105.5
105.8
106.1
106.4
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
470.7
471.6
470.8
468.6
459.8
460.8
461.1
460.6
460.8
460.6
460.8
460.7
150.3
151.1
149.6
146.1
142.9
143.5
143.8
143.9
144.7
144.9
145.5
145.8
13033.7 13105.6 13185.2 13259.2 13312.9 13368.0 13421.8 13486.9 13543.4 13602.4 13667.3 13736.5 30.2
30.3
30.3
29.5
29.8
29.9
30.1
30.2
30.3
30.4
30.5
30.6
Construction
584.4
581.3
588.8
601.1
616.0
623.8
635.8
646.4
658.7
674.0
693.3
711.4
Transportation, Warehouse & Util.
480.0
484.6
488.6
492.1
489.8
491.9
494.5
497.9
501.2
503.9
506.7
510.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services
667.4
673.7
678.9
687.6
691.2
694.1
697.4
700.9
703.7
705.4
707.6
711.3
1556.1
1562.0
1563.6
1575.8
1560.8
1566.9
1568.0
1566.8
1559.7
1560.7
1562.8
1566.0
427.0
431.2
429.9
433.6
433.9
437.6
436.5
437.4
440.6
439.2
436.1
435.9
2203.5
2228.1
2253.5
2263.8
2283.4
2306.4
2326.4
2351.7
2377.5
2404.8
2432.9
2461.3
Admin. & Support
918.1
927.1
932.4
942.4
950.1
966.4
977.3
992.4
1011.6
1029.6
1051.0
1072.8
Prof. Sci. & Tech.
1084.2
1099.6
1118.9
1118.3
1128.6
1135.1
1145.0
1156.3
1164.1
1175.0
1183.3
1191.2
201.2
201.4
202.2
203.0
204.6
204.9
204.1
203.1
201.7
200.2
198.7
197.3
Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Finance & Insurance Education & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
14
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
767.6
773.2
778.7
779.9
784.2
785.0
788.0
790.6
792.8
795.3
798.1
800.0
247.6
249.8
252.8
255.2
254.7
255.7
256.5
256.8
257.3
258.7
259.9
261.1
519.9
523.4
525.9
524.7
529.6
529.3
531.5
533.9
535.5
536.6
538.2
538.9
1862.5
1866.2
1886.7
1903.8
1904.7
1911.5
1919.2
1928.6
1936.9
1940.2
1944.5
1951.5
332.8
328.5
339.2
343.4
342.9
342.6
341.3
340.6
339.8
338.9
337.8
336.7
1529.6
1537.7
1547.5
1560.4
1561.8
1569.0
1578.0
1588.1
1597.2
1601.3
1606.7
1614.8
1571.3
1596.1
1609.5
1619.6
1644.4
1650.2
1656.3
1664.7
1665.9
1667.6
1667.6
1669.1
501.5
505.3
507.6
510.0
507.5
508.1
508.5
509.2
510.2
511.4
512.1
511.4
2382.1
2373.8
2369.0
2362.6
2367.5
2362.6
2361.1
2362.2
2365.7
2369.5
2375.0
2377.3
251.9
250.3
248.7
249.3
246.4
241.3
239.3
239.7
240.7
242.1
240.4
238.9
2130.3
2123.5
2120.3
2113.3
2121.1
2121.3
2121.8
2122.5
2125.1
2127.5
2134.7
2138.4
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 3. Employment Quarterly 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products
15075.4 15148.1 15226.2 15305.2 15375.6 15438.8 15497.8 15561.3 15614.1 15665.7 15713.5 15761.7 1276.6
1279.1
1282.1
1286.2
1289.7
1292.7
1295.4
1298.4
1299.6
1301.0
1302.1
1303.0
816.2
819.2
822.5
826.4
829.9
832.9
835.8
838.9
840.0
841.3
842.4
843.2
28.6
30.0
31.4
32.5
33.1
33.3
33.3
33.1
32.8
32.5
32.2
31.8
Computer & Electronics
268.5
267.7
267.2
266.8
266.5
267.2
268.2
269.6
271.3
273.3
275.3
277.3
Transportation Equipment
106.7
107.1
107.4
107.4
107.9
107.6
106.8
106.6
106.0
105.3
104.5
103.7
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
460.4
459.9
459.6
459.8
459.9
459.8
459.6
459.4
459.5
459.7
459.7
459.8
146.1
146.4
146.7
147.4
147.9
148.5
149.1
149.6
150.1
150.7
151.3
151.8
13798.8 13869.0 13944.1 14019.0 14085.9 14146.1 14202.3 14262.9 14314.6 14364.7 14411.3 14458.7 30.7
30.7
30.7
30.7
30.7
30.8
30.9
30.9
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
Construction
731.6
756.4
782.9
810.6
834.1
853.4
869.6
882.8
895.5
904.7
910.8
915.8
Transportation, Warehouse & Util.
514.7
518.4
522.0
525.8
529.8
533.3
537.0
540.5
544.3
547.8
551.3
554.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services
715.3
719.0
722.4
725.7
729.8
733.4
737.2
740.8
744.2
747.3
750.5
753.5
1563.6
1565.9
1568.7
1571.1
1571.2
1572.8
1575.3
1577.9
1578.4
1579.5
1580.5
1580.9
435.8
438.1
439.9
443.0
446.1
448.6
451.2
452.8
454.5
455.8
457.1
457.8
2487.4
2514.1
2542.2
2568.5
2590.9
2611.2
2629.3
2651.9
2670.1
2689.2
2706.3
2724.5
Admin. & Support
1095.0
1117.1
1141.4
1164.9
1188.6
1209.8
1230.4
1254.9
1276.2
1296.4
1316.4
1336.6
Prof. Sci. & Tech.
1196.0
1202.1
1206.9
1210.7
1210.1
1209.8
1207.8
1206.5
1203.8
1203.1
1200.7
1199.2
196.3
195.0
193.9
192.9
192.2
191.7
191.1
190.5
190.2
189.7
189.2
188.7
Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Finance & Insurance Education & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
801.5
801.6
801.1
799.5
797.4
794.6
792.0
789.6
787.2
784.2
782.4
779.6
262.5
263.8
264.5
265.0
265.7
266.2
266.6
267.1
267.3
267.4
267.4
267.3
539.0
537.8
536.7
534.5
531.6
528.4
525.4
522.6
519.9
516.8
515.0
512.2
1957.3
1964.5
1972.1
1979.7
1992.0
2003.8
2013.6
2025.5
2034.7
2046.3
2057.1
2070.3
336.0
334.6
333.5
332.3
331.8
331.0
330.9
331.0
331.7
331.8
332.4
334.0
1621.3
1629.9
1638.6
1647.5
1660.2
1672.8
1682.7
1694.5
1703.0
1714.5
1724.7
1736.3
1670.0
1669.1
1669.2
1669.8
1667.3
1665.1
1663.6
1663.3
1663.0
1662.1
1662.0
1661.9
511.1
510.2
509.4
508.3
508.1
507.7
507.5
507.3
507.5
507.6
508.0
508.1
2379.8
2381.0
2383.5
2386.3
2388.6
2391.4
2395.1
2399.6
2404.2
2409.2
2414.3
2420.9
239.2
237.9
236.6
235.3
233.2
232.2
231.2
230.2
229.5
228.6
227.7
226.8
2140.6
2143.1
2147.0
2151.0
2155.4
2159.2
2163.9
2169.5
2174.6
2180.6
2186.6
2194.0
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
15
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 4. Employment Annual 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
14800.9 15060.9 15174.1 14983.5 14082.7 13936.6 14101.9 14399.5 14643.5 14903.7 15188.7 15468.4 15688.8
Manufacturing
1504.6 1489.9 1463.9 1425.4 1281.7 1242.1 1248.0 1253.5 1246.1 1266.3 1281.0 1294.1 1301.4
Durable Goods Wood Products
958.7
947.2
927.7
899.8
798.9
771.2
778.8
783.1
785.5
805.6
821.1
834.4
841.7
25.1
24.9
24.6
24.0
19.7
19.0
19.8
20.0
19.8
20.0
20.2
20.6
21.0
Computer & Electronics
310.7
308.1
304.0
300.0
278.6
271.9
275.2
271.8
267.7
268.4
267.6
267.9
274.3
Transportation Equipment
132.4
130.0
126.8
123.7
112.9
106.7
102.7
102.5
103.4
106.0
107.2
107.2
104.8
Nondurables
545.9
542.7
536.2
525.6
482.8
470.8
469.2
470.4
460.5
460.7
459.9
459.7
459.7
Foods
153.6
151.1
152.9
153.0
147.9
147.0
149.5
149.3
143.5
145.2
146.6
148.8
151.0
Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction
13296.3 13571.0 13710.2 13558.1 12801.0 12694.5 12853.9 13145.9 13397.4 13637.4 13907.7 14174.3 14387.3 23.5
25.0
26.6
28.7
26.1
26.8
28.8
30.0
30.0
30.5
30.7
30.8
31.0
905.5
933.5
893.1
788.3
622.1
558.8
561.2
588.9
630.5
684.4
770.4
860.0
906.7
Trans., Warehouse & Util.
487.4
496.3
507.7
504.7
474.2
466.4
474.6
486.3
493.5
505.6
520.2
535.2
549.5
Wholesale Trade
673.5
700.3
715.4
703.4
645.1
644.0
658.2
676.9
695.9
707.0
720.6
735.3
748.9
Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services
1658.8 1680.4 1689.5 1640.9 1522.3 1513.9 1536.6 1564.4 1565.6 1562.3 1567.3 1574.3 1579.8 473.5
465.9
470.7
475.4
440.4
427.7
428.8
430.4
436.4
437.9
439.2
449.7
456.3
2160.0 2241.9 2264.7 2239.6 2059.6 2073.2 2132.4 2237.2 2317.0 2419.1 2528.0 2620.8 2697.5
Admin. & Support
968.0 1002.9
Prof. Sci. & Tech.
969.9 1026.4 1060.1 1080.0 1014.1 1016.5 1051.2 1105.3 1141.2 1178.4 1203.9 1208.5 1201.7
Mgmt. of Co.
222.1
212.7
207.3
207.3
197.3
195.4
199.3
202.0
204.2
199.5
194.5
191.4
189.4
920.1
927.9
896.7
841.9
782.9
760.1
762.1
774.9
787.0
796.6
800.9
793.4
783.4
283.6
288.5
283.6
275.9
254.7
248.2
247.2
251.4
255.9
259.3
263.9
266.4
267.4
636.5
639.4
613.1
566.0
528.1
511.9
514.9
523.5
531.1
537.3
537.0
527.0
516.0
Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Finance & Insurance Education & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
16
997.4
952.3
848.2
861.3
881.9
930.0
971.5 1041.2 1129.6 1220.9 1306.4
1593.4 1621.5 1677.9 1732.8 1759.8 1788.2 1836.0 1879.8 1916.0 1943.3 1968.4 2008.7 2052.1 272.3
277.7
289.1
300.5
304.5
309.7
326.1
336.0
341.8
338.3
334.1
331.2
332.5
1321.1 1343.8 1388.8 1432.3 1455.3 1478.4 1509.9 1543.8 1574.2 1605.0 1634.3 1677.5 1719.6 1474.6 1518.9 1560.2 1573.0 1503.0 1501.2 1535.6 1599.1 1653.9 1667.6 1669.5 1664.8 1662.2 505.4
506.9
512.5
511.6
485.8
484.7
493.7
506.1
508.3
511.3
509.7
507.6
507.8
2420.6 2452.6 2495.1 2517.9 2479.8 2449.7 2405.9 2371.9 2363.3 2371.9 2382.7 2393.7 2412.1 250.4
248.8
247.1
248.3
251.1
268.3
255.2
250.0
241.7
240.5
237.2
231.7
228.2
2170.2 2203.8 2248.0 2269.6 2228.7 2181.4 2150.7 2121.8 2121.7 2131.4 2145.4 2162.0 2184.0
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 5. Personal Income - Quarterly 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
1684.1 1696.6 1716.5 1747.2 1727.1 1745.6 1764.5 1788.9 1815.5 1836.1 1858.4 1878.7
Wages & Salaries
879.3
881.5
895.4
902.5
907.1
914.8
924.3
935.6
947.3
958.4
969.8
980.4
Other Labor Income
206.2
206.8
210.2
211.3
213.6
215.4
217.6
219.9
223.6
226.0
228.7
231.6
Nonfarm
150.1
152.0
152.9
155.2
158.0
159.5
161.6
164.4
167.1
170.7
173.5
176.1
7.4
8.1
9.6
9.6
9.8
9.1
8.9
8.6
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.0
Property Income
Farm
296.7
302.8
303.0
322.9
309.1
317.7
321.9
327.5
332.3
335.5
341.0
345.2
Transfer Payments
262.9
264.2
266.0
267.2
270.5
271.6
273.9
278.1
286.4
288.2
289.9
291.5
Billions 2005 $ Personal Income
1460.6 1469.0 1480.4 1500.9 1480.4 1495.6 1507.2 1523.7 1540.3 1551.7 1565.1 1576.9
Wages & Salaries
762.6
763.2
772.2
775.3
777.5
783.8
789.5
796.9
803.7
810.0
816.7
822.9
Other Labor Income
178.8
179.0
181.3
181.5
183.1
184.6
185.9
187.3
189.7
191.0
192.6
194.4
Nonfarm
130.2
131.6
131.9
133.4
135.5
136.6
138.0
140.1
141.8
144.3
146.1
147.8
6.4
7.0
8.3
8.2
8.4
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.1
6.9
6.8
6.7
Property Income
Farm
257.4
262.2
261.3
277.4
264.9
272.2
274.9
278.9
281.9
283.5
287.2
289.7
Transfer Payments
228.0
228.8
229.4
229.5
231.9
232.7
234.0
236.9
242.9
243.6
244.1
244.7
New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 1427.1 1383.9 1548.1 1564.6 1687.9 1690.0 1692.3 1716.0 1738.2 1754.4 1784.3 1821.0 Retail Sales (Billions $)
475.7
475.2
484.1
490.6
497.0
498.8
501.2
504.4
507.5
512.2
517.3
521.8
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)
412.5
411.5
417.5
421.5
426.0
427.4
428.1
429.6
430.6
432.9
435.7
438.0
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
17
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 5. Personal Income - Quarterly 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
1903.3 1925.0 1946.8 1968.0 1995.9 2018.3 2040.9 2065.0 2092.9 2118.8 2144.5 2170.1
Wages & Salaries
992.0 1003.6 1015.4 1027.2 1039.6 1050.8 1061.9 1073.1 1085.4 1097.0 1108.5 1120.3
Other Labor Income
235.2
237.6
240.4
243.3
247.7
250.5
253.5
256.5
260.7
263.4
266.2
269.1
Nonfarm
178.9
182.2
185.1
188.0
190.5
193.1
194.9
196.8
198.2
200.0
201.0
202.8
8.1
8.1
8.4
8.4
8.3
8.1
8.0
7.9
8.0
7.9
7.9
7.7
Property Income
Farm
350.0
353.9
357.6
360.8
366.1
371.6
377.9
385.6
394.0
402.5
411.4
419.3
Transfer Payments
298.7
300.6
302.3
304.2
313.2
314.8
316.5
318.4
324.4
327.1
329.8
332.6
Billions 2005 $ Personal Income
1591.6 1604.2 1616.6 1627.3 1644.9 1656.1 1667.4 1679.8 1696.0 1710.0 1723.6 1736.9
Wages & Salaries
829.5
836.3
843.2
849.4
856.7
862.2
867.5
872.9
879.5
885.3
890.9
896.7
Other Labor Income
196.7
198.0
199.6
201.2
204.1
205.6
207.1
208.7
211.3
212.6
213.9
215.4
Nonfarm
149.6
151.8
153.7
155.5
157.0
158.5
159.3
160.1
160.6
161.4
161.6
162.3
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.9
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.4
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.2
Property Income
Farm
292.7
294.9
297.0
298.4
301.7
304.9
308.7
313.7
319.3
324.8
330.7
335.6
Transfer Payments
249.8
250.5
251.1
251.6
258.1
258.3
258.5
259.0
262.9
264.0
265.1
266.2
New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 1851.0 1878.6 1914.3 1940.5 1958.6 1977.1 2000.4 2042.2 2052.2 2058.7 2053.4 2046.7 Retail Sales (Billions $)
525.5
530.4
535.6
541.5
545.4
551.3
557.3
563.1
566.8
572.3
578.1
584.1
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)
439.4
442.0
444.8
447.8
449.5
452.4
455.3
458.1
459.3
461.9
464.7
467.5
18
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 6. Personal Income - Annual 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
1387.7 1495.5 1566.4 1610.7 1516.7 1564.2 1645.1 1711.1 1756.5 1847.2 1935.8 2030.0 2131.5
Wages & Salaries
743.5
792.9
837.4
845.4
801.9
817.9
852.9
889.7
920.5
964.0 1009.5 1056.3 1102.8
Other Labor Income
181.6
183.6
184.6
191.5
189.5
191.8
200.3
208.6
216.6
227.5
239.1
252.1
264.9
Nonfarm
163.4
173.9
161.8
149.5
133.3
140.2
145.6
152.6
160.9
171.9
183.6
193.8
200.5
4.8
4.8
7.5
5.3
6.0
6.7
9.9
8.7
9.1
8.2
8.2
8.1
7.9
Property Income
Farm
243.8
280.2
306.0
334.9
267.0
267.3
288.9
306.4
319.0
338.5
355.6
375.3
406.8
Transfer Payments
167.9
181.0
191.6
208.9
239.7
261.6
261.7
265.1
273.5
289.0
301.5
315.7
328.5
Billions 2005 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries
1387.5 1455.8 1484.7 1478.5 1391.5 1408.0 1445.8 1477.7 1501.7 1558.5 1609.9 1662.0 1716.6 743.5
771.8
793.8
776.0
735.7
736.3
749.6
768.3
786.9
813.3
839.6
864.8
888.1
Other Labor Income
181.6
178.8
175.0
175.7
173.8
172.7
176.0
180.2
185.2
191.9
198.9
206.4
213.3
Nonfarm
163.4
169.3
153.4
137.2
122.3
126.2
128.0
131.8
137.6
145.0
152.7
158.7
161.5
4.8
4.6
7.1
4.9
5.5
6.0
8.7
7.5
7.8
6.9
6.9
6.6
6.3
Farm Property Income
243.7
272.8
290.0
307.4
245.0
240.6
253.9
264.6
272.7
285.6
295.7
307.3
327.6
Transfer Payments
167.9
176.2
181.6
191.7
219.9
235.5
230.0
228.9
233.9
243.8
250.7
258.5
264.5
New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 2142.9 2085.1 1870.9 1394.7 1014.6 1099.3 1241.2 1480.9 1696.5 1774.5 1896.1 1994.6 2052.7 Retail Sales (Billions $)
427.5
448.9
455.0
441.9
405.8
423.2
456.6
481.4
500.3
514.7
533.2
554.3
575.3
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)
427.5
437.0
431.3
405.7
372.3
380.9
401.3
415.7
427.8
434.3
443.5
453.8
463.3
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
19
CHARTS
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -3% -5% -7%
California Real Gross State Product (percent change from one year ago) 12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -2%
-4%
-6%
California and U.S. Unemployment Rates (percent) 14% CA Unemployment Rate (%) 12%
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
21
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Total Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) 16,000
15,500
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500
13,000
12,500
12,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
California Construction Employment (Thouands) 1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
California Manufacturing Employment (Thousands) 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
22
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Employment (Thousands) 580 560 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
California Financial Activities Employment (Thouands) 1,000
950
900
850
800
750
700 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
California Professional and Business Employment (Thousands) 2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
23
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Education and Health Services Employment (Thousands) 2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
California Information Employment (Thousands) 650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
California State and Local Government Employment (Thousands) 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
24
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Federal Government Employment (Thousands) 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
California Housing Starts (Thousands) 250
200
150
100
50
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
California New Passenger & Light Truck Registrations (Thousands) 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
25
METROS
Fresno MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK After a very slight increase in non-farm employment in 2012 for the Fresno MSA, employment in 2013 will increase by 1.2 percent. Employment will remain around the same rate of 1.2 percent in quarter 2 of 2013 but is expected to increase 1.5 percent in the coming quarter. The leading sectors for job growth for 2013 are Professional and Business Services with a 6.6 percent increase in jobs and Trade, Trans, & Utilities with a 3.3 percent increase in jobs. The remaining sectors are divided between increases and decreases in employment with the largest decrease in the Federal Government sector with a 9.6 percent decline in jobs. 2014 will bring another moderate increase in employment of 2.0 percent. This increase in jobs will continue through 2017. Real personal income will increase by 1.0 percent in 2013 to
$26.8 Billion, a $0.3 Billion increase from 2012. Starting in 2014 real personal income will jump 3.9 percent and will have a year-on year increase of over 3.0 percent for the remainder of the forecast. Population in the Fresno MSA will continue to increase by 0.8 percent in 2013. This increase will continue throughout the forecast. The labor force in 2013 will increase 0.2 percent which is a smaller increase from 2012’s 0.3 percent. Labor force will jump up 1.2 percent in 2014 and will continue to increase an average of 0.9 percent for the remaining forecast. Even with the increase in labor force and population, unemployment will go down for 2013 to 13.8 percent which is a 1.4 percent decrease from 2012. Unemployment will continue to decrease until it reaches 10.3 percent in 2017.
Fresno Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 10%
Fresno Payroll Employment (Thousands) 320
310 8%
300 6%
290 4%
280
270
2%
260 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -2%
250
240
-4%
230
-6%
220 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fresno and California Unemployment Rates (percent) 20% Unemployment Rate (%) 18%
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
Fresno Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100) 200 180
16%
160
14%
140
12% 10%
120 100 80
8%
60 6%
40
4%
20
2%
0 Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
27
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO
Quarterly Outlook for Fresno May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.4 30.8 31.1 31.5 31.9 32.4 32.8 33.2 33.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2.4 3.2 5.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.7 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.2 Wages and Salaries 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 Nonwage Income 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.3 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.6 Real Personal Income (2005$) 26.2 26.4 26.5 27.0 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 0.7 1.7 4.1 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.8 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 32.0 32.2 32.3 33.0 32.3 32.6 32.8 33.2 33.7 34.0 34.3 34.6 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.3 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 48.8 48.5 48.9 49.0 48.9 49.0 49.3 49.6 49.9 50.2 50.5 50.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.3 2.0 2.9 0.3 1.0 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 281.5 282.5 282.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.6 0.5 Manufacturing 23.7 23.9 23.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 0.6 -2.7 Nonmanufacturing 257.8 258.6 259.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.6 0.8 Construction & Mining 12.0 12.1 12.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 3.8 6.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 57.3 57.6 57.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.2 -0.2 Wholesale Trade 12.6 12.6 12.7 Retail Trade 33.2 33.3 33.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 11.5 11.7 11.4 Information 3.5 3.5 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.4 9.6 5.9 Financial Activities 12.6 12.7 12.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.8 -2.9 -0.4 Prof & Business Services 27.6 27.2 27.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 0.4 2.1 Educ & Health Services 42.7 42.8 42.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.1 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 27.6 27.9 28.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.9 3.5 Other Services 10.3 10.6 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 6.8 3.4 Federal Government 10.3 10.0 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 -0.4 0.3 State & Local Government 53.9 54.1 53.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4 -3.7 -2.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
28
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
946.1 0.8 441.9 -0.1 15.5 1833 1479 354
947.9 0.7 444.5 0.5 15.6 2008 1682 327
949.7 0.7 443.9 0.4 15.2 1939 1646 294
285.3 1.6 23.1 -2.3 262.2 2.0 12.7 9.8 57.7 -0.6 13.0 33.0 11.7 3.5 1.9 13.0 2.6 28.9 6.3 43.2 2.3 28.5 5.7 10.6 2.8 10.2 -0.6 54.0 -1.1
284.8 1.2 22.7 -4.3 262.1 1.7 12.7 5.6 59.1 3.3 13.4 33.7 12.1 3.5 1.0 13.1 3.6 29.1 5.4 42.2 -1.3 28.5 3.1 10.6 2.9 9.4 -9.0 54.0 0.2
285.7 1.2 22.7 -5.1 263.1 1.7 12.8 5.7 59.4 3.0 13.4 33.9 12.1 3.6 0.8 13.1 3.0 29.5 8.4 42.3 -1.0 28.6 2.4 10.6 -0.2 9.2 -8.1 54.0 -0.1
286.6 1.5 22.7 -1.5 264.0 1.8 13.1 4.7 59.5 3.6 13.4 33.9 12.2 3.5 1.6 13.1 2.7 29.9 7.9 42.5 -0.6 28.7 2.0 10.6 0.0 9.1 -10.3 54.0 0.3
288.1 1.0 22.6 -2.1 265.5 1.3 13.6 6.9 59.6 3.3 13.5 33.9 12.2 3.5 2.1 13.2 1.7 30.2 4.7 42.8 -0.9 28.9 1.3 10.6 -0.3 9.1 -10.8 54.0 0.0
289.5 1.6 22.7 -0.1 266.8 1.8 14.1 11.2 59.6 0.8 13.5 33.8 12.3 3.6 0.7 13.2 1.1 30.6 5.3 42.9 1.7 28.9 1.6 10.6 0.2 9.1 -2.4 54.1 0.2
291.2 1.9 22.7 0.0 268.5 2.1 14.7 14.7 59.7 0.6 13.6 33.8 12.3 3.5 -0.3 13.3 1.4 31.1 5.2 43.1 1.7 29.0 1.4 10.7 0.8 9.2 0.2 54.2 0.4
292.8 2.1 22.8 0.4 270.0 2.3 15.2 16.6 59.9 0.7 13.6 33.9 12.4 3.5 -0.4 13.3 1.4 31.5 5.5 43.2 1.7 29.0 1.1 10.7 1.0 9.1 0.5 54.4 0.9
294.3 2.1 22.8 0.9 271.4 2.2 15.6 15.0 60.1 0.8 13.7 34.0 12.5 3.5 -0.5 13.4 1.4 31.9 5.6 43.5 1.6 29.1 0.8 10.7 0.9 9.1 -0.3 54.6 1.1
951.5 0.8 443.0 0.3 14.5 2080 1826 254
953.7 0.8 442.3 0.1 13.9 1323 1287 36
955.7 0.8 443.8 -0.2 13.9 1913 1716 197
957.8 0.9 445.1 0.3 13.8 2242 1978 264
959.8 0.9 446.5 0.8 13.7 2463 2108 355
962.3 0.9 448.1 1.3 13.5 2768 2337 431
964.5 0.9 449.2 1.2 13.3 3201 2695 506
966.8 0.9 450.2 1.2 12.9 3518 2946 571
969.1 1.0 451.1 1.0 12.6 3804 3169 635
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO
Quarterly Outlook for Fresno May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 34.0 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.7 36.2 36.6 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Wages and Salaries 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.1 Nonwage Income 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.6 22.0 Real Personal Income (2005$) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 35.0 35.3 35.7 36.0 36.4 36.7 37.0 37.4 37.8 38.1 38.5 38.9 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 51.0 51.4 51.7 52.0 52.3 52.6 52.9 53.2 53.6 53.9 54.3 54.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 295.6 297.2 298.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.1 2.1 Manufacturing 22.9 23.0 23.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.3 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 272.7 274.2 275.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.1 2.2 Construction & Mining 16.0 16.5 17.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 13.6 12.4 12.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 60.2 60.4 60.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.1 1.3 Wholesale Trade 13.8 13.9 13.9 Retail Trade 33.9 34.0 34.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.5 12.6 12.7 Information 3.5 3.5 3.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 0.1 1.3 Financial Activities 13.4 13.4 13.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.1 0.8 Prof & Business Services 32.3 32.7 33.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 5.2 5.3 Educ & Health Services 43.7 43.9 44.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.9 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 29.1 29.2 29.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.6 0.6 Other Services 10.7 10.7 10.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.2 -0.2 Federal Government 9.1 9.0 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -1.7 -1.6 State & Local Government 54.7 54.8 54.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 0.9 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
971.8 1.0 451.9 0.9 12.3 4102 3408 693
974.2 1.0 452.8 0.8 12.0 4399 3678 720
976.8 1.0 453.6 0.8 11.8 4630 3882 748
300.6 2.2 23.1 1.2 277.5 2.2 17.7 13.3 60.9 1.4 14.0 34.2 12.7 3.6 2.2 13.4 0.4 33.6 5.3 44.3 2.0 29.2 0.6 10.7 -0.4 8.9 -1.5 55.1 0.9
302.1 2.2 23.2 1.4 278.9 2.2 18.2 13.2 61.1 1.5 14.1 34.2 12.8 3.6 2.8 13.4 -0.1 33.9 5.0 44.6 2.3 29.2 0.3 10.7 -0.4 8.9 -2.5 55.2 1.0
303.5 2.1 23.3 1.4 280.2 2.2 18.6 12.2 61.4 1.6 14.2 34.3 12.9 3.6 2.8 13.4 -0.4 34.2 4.6 45.0 2.5 29.2 0.3 10.6 -0.4 8.8 -2.4 55.4 1.1
304.8 2.0 23.3 1.4 281.4 2.0 18.9 10.5 61.6 1.5 14.3 34.4 13.0 3.7 2.9 13.3 -0.7 34.5 4.0 45.2 2.5 29.2 0.2 10.6 -0.4 8.8 -2.3 55.6 1.1
305.8 1.7 23.4 1.2 282.4 1.8 18.8 6.6 61.8 1.5 14.3 34.4 13.1 3.7 2.4 13.3 -1.0 34.9 3.7 45.5 2.7 29.3 0.1 10.6 -0.2 8.7 -2.2 55.7 1.2
306.7 1.5 23.4 1.0 283.3 1.6 18.8 3.6 62.1 1.5 14.4 34.5 13.2 3.7 2.0 13.3 -1.0 35.2 3.7 45.7 2.4 29.3 0.2 10.6 -0.1 8.7 -1.6 55.9 1.2
307.7 1.4 23.5 0.9 284.2 1.4 18.7 0.9 62.3 1.5 14.5 34.6 13.2 3.7 1.9 13.2 -1.1 35.5 3.8 46.0 2.4 29.3 0.2 10.6 0.0 8.7 -1.5 56.1 1.3
308.8 1.3 23.5 0.7 285.3 1.4 18.7 -0.7 62.5 1.5 14.6 34.6 13.3 3.7 1.5 13.2 -1.1 35.9 3.9 46.3 2.4 29.3 0.3 10.7 0.2 8.7 -1.5 56.3 1.3
310.1 1.4 23.5 0.6 286.5 1.5 18.9 0.1 62.7 1.4 14.6 34.7 13.4 3.7 1.3 13.2 -1.0 36.3 4.0 46.7 2.5 29.4 0.4 10.7 0.3 8.6 -1.5 56.5 1.4
979.3 1.1 454.4 0.7 11.5 4608 3862 746
982.4 1.1 455.5 0.8 11.3 4455 3695 760
985.0 1.1 456.7 0.9 11.1 4355 3559 797
987.8 1.1 457.8 0.9 10.9 4281.0 3458.8 822.2
990.7 1.2 458.9 1.0 10.8 4211.7 3356.9 854.8
994.0 1.2 460.1 1.0 10.6 4083.9 3195.4 888.5
996.8 1.2 461.3 1.0 10.4 3992.1 3060.7 931.3
1000.0 1.2 462.4 1.0 10.3 3908.4 2943.7 964.7
1003.6 1.3 463.4 1.0 10.1 3869.4 2853.0 1016.5
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
29
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO
Annual Outlook for Fresno May 2013 Forecast 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
24.1 3.2 11.8 12.2 24.1 0.2 27.5 27.5 40.0 2.8
25.7 6.9 12.6 13.1 25.0 4.0 29.1 28.3 41.5 3.9
27.2 5.6 13.4 13.8 25.8 2.8 30.3 28.7 43.4 4.6
28.2 3.7 13.8 14.4 25.9 0.4 30.9 28.4 45.1 3.9
27.7 -1.7 13.2 14.5 25.4 -1.8 30.0 27.5 45.9 1.7
28.5 3.1 13.2 15.3 25.7 1.2 30.6 27.5 47.0 2.4
29.7 4.2 13.5 16.2 26.1 1.8 31.6 27.8 47.9 1.8
30.7 3.3 13.9 16.8 26.5 1.5 32.4 28.0 48.8 2.0
31.3 2.0 14.2 17.2 26.8 1.0 32.8 28.0 49.2 0.8
33.0 5.3 14.8 18.2 27.8 3.9 34.2 28.8 50.3 2.3
34.6 5.0 15.4 19.2 28.8 3.5 35.5 29.5 51.5 2.3
36.4 5.1 16.1 20.3 29.8 3.4 36.9 30.2 52.7 2.4
38.3 5.2 16.8 21.5 30.8 3.4 38.3 30.9 54.1 2.6
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 294.3 302.6 306.4 303.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.8 1.2 -1.1 Manufacturing 27.2 27.5 28.1 27.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 1.2 2.1 -3.5 Nonmanufacturing 267.1 275.1 278.3 275.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.0 1.2 -0.8 Construction & Mining 21.8 23.4 21.2 18.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.1 7.5 -9.2 -15.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 57.1 58.4 60.4 59.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.3 3.3 -2.0 Wholesale Trade 12.7 13.2 13.5 12.9 Retail Trade 35.1 35.2 36.3 35.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 9.4 10.0 10.6 11.0 Information 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 -3.2 -0.6 13.4 Financial Activities 14.7 15.5 15.3 14.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 5.5 -1.4 -3.5 Prof & Business Services 28.8 29.5 30.0 30.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 2.5 1.6 2.2 Educ & Health Services 36.6 37.5 38.9 40.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.4 3.8 3.1 Leisure & Hospitality 25.9 28.1 28.2 28.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.5 8.6 0.3 -0.8 Other Services 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 0.5 0.7 -3.0 Federal Government 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.5 -0.6 -2.1 2.1 State & Local Government 57.2 57.8 59.6 60.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.1 3.1 1.0
286.3 -5.5 25.1 -7.5 261.3 -5.3 13.9 -22.8 55.6 -6.0 11.8 33.1 10.6 4.1 -13.0 13.8 -6.7 28.1 -8.2 40.3 0.5 26.6 -4.8 10.2 -4.5 9.8 0.8 58.9 -2.2
279.5 -2.4 24.1 -3.7 255.4 -2.2 12.2 -11.9 55.1 -0.8 11.5 32.8 10.8 3.4 -17.1 13.4 -2.9 26.7 -5.0 40.8 1.3 26.8 0.7 10.0 -1.8 10.7 8.8 56.4 -4.3
281.1 0.6 23.8 -1.5 257.3 0.8 11.7 -4.0 57.3 4.0 12.5 33.4 11.4 3.3 -3.3 13.0 -3.1 27.2 1.7 41.9 2.8 27.1 1.2 10.1 1.5 10.2 -4.7 55.6 -1.4
282.9 0.6 23.4 -1.3 259.5 0.8 12.3 5.2 57.5 0.3 12.7 33.2 11.6 3.5 6.7 12.8 -1.4 27.9 2.5 42.9 2.3 28.0 3.4 10.5 4.2 10.2 -0.1 53.9 -2.9
286.3 1.2 22.7 -3.2 263.7 1.6 13.0 5.7 59.4 3.3 13.4 33.8 12.2 3.5 1.4 13.1 2.8 29.7 6.6 42.5 -1.0 28.6 2.2 10.6 0.6 9.2 -9.6 54.0 0.1
291.9 2.0 22.7 0.3 269.2 2.1 14.9 14.4 59.8 0.7 13.6 33.9 12.4 3.5 -0.1 13.3 1.3 31.3 5.4 43.2 1.7 29.0 1.2 10.7 0.7 9.1 -0.5 54.3 0.6
298.1 2.1 23.0 1.1 275.1 2.2 16.8 12.9 60.6 1.2 13.9 34.0 12.6 3.6 0.7 13.4 0.9 33.0 5.3 44.0 1.9 29.2 0.6 10.7 0.0 9.0 -1.4 54.9 1.0
304.0 2.0 23.3 1.3 280.7 2.1 18.6 10.6 61.5 1.5 14.2 34.3 13.0 3.7 2.7 13.3 -0.6 34.4 4.3 45.1 2.5 29.2 0.2 10.6 -0.4 8.8 -2.3 55.5 1.1
308.3 1.4 23.5 0.8 284.8 1.5 18.8 1.0 62.4 1.5 14.5 34.6 13.3 3.7 1.7 13.2 -1.0 35.7 3.8 46.2 2.5 29.3 0.3 10.7 0.1 8.7 -1.5 56.2 1.3
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
923.0 1.3 435.1 1.2 15.0 2271 2169 101
933.7 1.2 440.2 1.2 16.8 2178 1902 276
941.7 0.9 442.0 0.4 16.6 1891 1658 232
948.8 0.8 443.3 0.3 15.2 1965 1658 307
956.7 0.8 444.4 0.2 13.8 1985 1772 213
965.6 0.9 449.7 1.2 13.1 3323 2787 536
975.5 1.0 453.2 0.8 11.9 4434 3708 727
986.5 1.1 457.2 0.9 11.0 4326 3517 808
998.6 1.0 461.8 1.0 10.3 3963 3013 950.3
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (2005$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (2005$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago
30
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
873.9 1.3 407.7 0.5 9.0 7092 5759 1334
885.4 1.3 411.6 1.0 8.0 5291 4219 1072
897.7 1.4 419.5 1.9 8.5 4491 3649 842
911.0 1.5 430.1 2.5 10.5 2697 2285 412
Merced MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Non-farm employment in the Merced MSA will increase by 2.6 percent in 2013. The first quarter of this year will bring a 2.9 percent increase in employment. Unemployment will increase each quarter and spike in the third quarter at a rate of 3.5 percent. Employment growth will then drop to 1.9 percent in the final quarter of 2013. The leading sector for employment growth is construction & mining which will have a 16.8 percent growth. Professional & business services also have substantial job growth of 7.4 percent this year. All other sectors will have employment growth with the exception of other services and the federal government which will suffer losses. After a 2.7 percent increase in 2012, real personal income growth will slightly decline to 1.3 percent this year. However,
2014 will bring a jump in real personal income of 3.9 percent, followed by a 3.4 percent increase in 2015, a 3.3 percent increase in 2016, and a 3.6 percent increase in 2017. Population in Merced will increase 1.0 percent in 2013. There will continue to be a gradual increase in population every year for the next four years. Labor force transitioned from a 0.8 percent decrease in 2012 to a 0.8 percent increase in 2013. Labor force will also continue to increase steadily throughout the forecast. Even with the increase in population and labor force, unemployment sill continues its decline to 15.6 percent in 2013. This rate will continue to fall every year until it reaches 11.7 percent in 2017.
Merced Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)
Merced Payroll Employment (Thousands)
20%
70
15%
65
10%
60
55
5%
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
50
45 -5%
40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-10%
Merced and California Unemployment Rates (percent) 20%
Merced Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100) 200
Unemployment Rate (%) 18%
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
180
16%
160
14%
140
12%
120 100
10%
80 8%
60
6%
40
4%
20
2%
0 Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
31
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED
Quarterly Outlook for Merced May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.7 4.2 6.2 2.3 2.7 2.7 1.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.3 Wages and Salaries 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 Nonwage Income 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 Real Personal Income (2005$) 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 2.0 2.7 4.5 1.1 1.7 1.7 0.9 4.0 3.8 4.1 3.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 29.1 29.2 29.5 30.1 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.7 31.0 31.3 31.6 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.8 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 45.3 44.7 45.2 45.0 44.9 45.0 45.2 45.5 45.8 46.0 46.2 46.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -1.1 1.2 2.4 -0.8 0.7 0.0 1.1 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 57.0 57.1 57.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.2 1.1 Manufacturing 8.4 8.4 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 3.1 0.8 Nonmanufacturing 48.6 48.7 49.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.9 1.2 Construction & Mining 1.6 1.7 1.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.3 9.2 4.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 11.9 12.0 12.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 2.5 2.6 Wholesale Trade 2.1 2.2 2.4 Retail Trade 7.3 7.4 7.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.4 2.5 Information 0.4 0.4 0.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -29.7 0.9 0.0 Financial Activities 1.5 1.6 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 0.2 6.8 Prof & Business Services 4.3 4.3 4.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 0.5 -3.6 Educ & Health Services 6.4 6.3 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 1.0 -0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 4.6 4.7 4.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 1.8 2.3 Other Services 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 0.4 0.1 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.2 -8.1 -0.2 State & Local Government 15.7 15.6 15.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 -0.6 1.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
32
261.7 1.0 110.3 0.3 17.4 121 37 83
California & Metro Forecast - April 2011
262.3 0.9 109.8 0.1 17.7 61 61 0
262.9 0.9 108.2 -1.9 17.5 146 92 54
58.5 2.7 8.6 3.5 49.9 2.5 1.7 9.1 12.4 4.8 2.5 7.4 2.5 0.4 0.6 1.6 7.6 4.5 -1.0 6.4 0.2 4.8 2.1 1.3 -4.3 0.7 -3.7 16.1 2.8
58.6 2.9 8.8 4.4 49.8 2.6 1.9 16.1 12.4 4.0 2.7 7.4 2.3 0.4 4.8 1.7 9.3 4.6 5.3 6.4 -0.3 4.8 3.1 1.3 -6.4 0.7 -5.5 15.9 0.9
58.9 3.2 8.8 4.6 50.1 2.9 1.9 16.1 12.4 3.1 2.7 7.3 2.3 0.4 -1.7 1.7 3.5 4.7 8.1 6.4 0.7 4.8 2.9 1.3 -6.5 0.7 -5.7 15.9 2.2
59.4 3.5 8.9 5.6 50.5 3.1 2.0 18.4 12.4 0.1 2.7 7.4 2.3 0.4 -1.9 1.7 3.5 4.7 9.5 6.4 0.7 4.8 2.4 1.3 -6.7 0.7 -13.2 16.1 5.0
59.6 1.9 8.9 3.4 50.7 1.6 2.0 16.5 12.5 0.3 2.8 7.4 2.3 0.4 2.3 1.7 4.0 4.8 6.8 6.4 1.0 4.9 1.7 1.3 -3.5 0.7 -4.7 16.2 0.3
60.0 2.2 9.0 2.4 50.9 2.2 2.0 7.4 12.5 1.0 2.8 7.3 2.4 0.4 2.9 1.7 1.8 4.8 6.4 6.4 1.6 4.9 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.7 -1.8 16.2 2.1
60.2 2.2 9.0 2.4 51.2 2.2 2.1 8.3 12.5 1.1 2.8 7.3 2.4 0.4 1.5 1.7 2.4 4.9 4.3 6.5 1.5 4.9 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 16.3 2.2
60.9 2.5 9.1 2.6 51.7 2.5 2.2 9.7 12.6 1.2 2.8 7.4 2.4 0.4 0.7 1.7 2.4 5.0 5.3 6.5 1.6 4.9 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.7 1.2 16.5 2.6
61.2 2.7 9.2 2.5 52.1 2.7 2.2 11.1 12.6 1.4 2.8 7.4 2.4 0.4 0.3 1.7 2.4 5.1 5.9 6.5 1.8 4.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.5 16.6 2.8
263.5 0.9 108.8 -1.8 16.9 401 97 304
264.1 0.9 111.2 0.8 16.1 182 107 75
264.8 0.9 110.6 0.8 15.8 143 139 4
265.5 1.0 109.1 0.8 15.5 237 189 47
266.2 1.0 109.7 0.8 15.3 373 280 93
266.9 1.0 112.1 0.9 15.0 535 406 128
267.6 1.1 111.6 0.9 14.7 689 552 137
268.4 1.1 110.0 0.9 14.4 788 659 129
269.2 1.1 110.7 0.9 13.9 896 779 117
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED
Quarterly Outlook for Merced May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 Wages and Salaries 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 Nonwage Income 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 Real Personal Income (2005$) 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 31.9 32.1 32.4 32.6 33.0 33.3 33.5 33.8 34.2 34.5 34.8 35.1 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 46.8 47.0 47.2 47.5 47.7 48.0 48.2 48.4 48.7 49.0 49.3 49.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 61.6 61.9 62.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.8 2.3 Manufacturing 9.2 9.2 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.1 1.4 Nonmanufacturing 52.4 52.7 53.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.9 2.4 Construction & Mining 2.3 2.4 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.8 13.0 13.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.7 12.7 12.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.8 1.9 Wholesale Trade 2.9 2.9 2.9 Retail Trade 7.4 7.4 7.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.5 2.5 Information 0.4 0.4 0.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 0.2 1.5 Financial Activities 1.7 1.7 1.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.8 0.6 Prof & Business Services 5.1 5.2 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 6.1 5.8 Educ & Health Services 6.6 6.6 6.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2.1 2.3 Leisure & Hospitality 4.9 4.9 4.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.0 1.0 Other Services 1.3 1.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.3 0.9 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 -1.0 -0.8 State & Local Government 16.7 16.7 16.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.8 1.3 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
270.1 1.2 113.2 1.0 13.5 1024 922 102
270.9 1.2 112.7 1.0 13.1 1133 1028 105
271.8 1.3 111.1 1.0 12.9 1203 1093 110
62.6 2.3 9.3 1.4 53.4 2.4 2.5 14.5 12.9 1.9 2.9 7.5 2.5 0.4 2.2 1.7 0.6 5.3 5.5 6.7 2.2 5.0 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 -0.8 16.8 1.3
63.0 2.3 9.3 1.3 53.6 2.5 2.6 15.0 12.9 1.9 2.9 7.5 2.5 0.4 2.9 1.7 0.6 5.4 5.1 6.7 2.5 5.0 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 -1.7 16.9 1.4
63.3 2.3 9.4 1.4 53.9 2.4 2.7 14.0 13.0 1.8 3.0 7.5 2.5 0.4 3.0 1.7 -0.6 5.5 5.0 6.8 2.8 5.0 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.7 -1.6 16.9 1.4
63.7 2.4 9.4 1.4 54.4 2.5 2.9 16.8 13.0 1.8 3.0 7.5 2.6 0.4 3.1 1.7 0.0 5.5 4.6 6.8 2.9 5.0 0.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 -1.6 17.0 1.5
64.1 2.4 9.4 1.3 54.7 2.6 3.0 19.0 13.1 1.6 3.0 7.5 2.6 0.4 2.9 1.7 -0.6 5.6 4.5 6.9 3.0 5.0 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.7 -1.5 17.1 1.5
64.6 2.5 9.4 1.0 55.1 2.8 3.2 21.1 13.1 1.6 3.0 7.5 2.6 0.4 2.8 1.7 -0.6 5.6 4.6 6.9 3.1 5.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.7 -0.9 17.2 1.6
64.9 2.5 9.4 0.9 55.4 2.7 3.2 19.4 13.2 1.5 3.0 7.6 2.6 0.4 2.1 1.7 -0.6 5.7 4.4 7.0 3.0 5.0 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 -0.9 17.2 1.7
65.2 2.2 9.5 0.8 55.7 2.5 3.2 13.3 13.2 1.4 3.0 7.6 2.6 0.4 1.8 1.7 -1.2 5.8 4.5 7.0 3.1 5.0 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.7 -0.8 17.3 1.8
65.4 2.0 9.5 0.7 56.0 2.2 3.3 8.3 13.2 1.2 3.0 7.6 2.6 0.4 1.6 1.7 -1.8 5.8 4.1 7.1 3.4 5.0 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.7 -0.8 17.4 1.9
272.7 1.3 111.8 1.0 12.7 1238 1124 114
273.6 1.3 114.4 1.1 12.5 1242 1125 118
274.6 1.4 113.9 1.1 12.4 1254 1132 122
275.6 1.4 112.4 1.1 12.3 1260 1135 124
276.6 1.4 113.1 1.1 12.3 1260 1132 128
277.6 1.5 115.7 1.2 12.0 1253 1120 133
278.7 1.5 115.2 1.2 11.8 1219 1082 137
279.8 1.5 113.7 1.2 11.6 1194.7 1055.2 139.6
280.9 1.6 114.5 1.2 11.4 1188.4 1044.2 144.1
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
33
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED
Annual Outlook for Merced May 2013 Forecast 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
5.8 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.8 -1.9 23.9 23.9 37.7 2.2
6.1 4.5 2.4 3.7 5.9 1.7 24.7 24.0 40.5 7.4
6.9 13.2 2.5 4.4 6.5 10.3 27.6 26.1 42.0 3.8
6.8 -1.5 2.6 4.2 6.2 -4.6 26.9 24.7 44.3 5.6
6.6 -2.5 2.6 4.0 6.0 -2.6 26.0 23.9 45.7 3.1
7.0 5.7 2.6 4.4 6.3 3.7 27.0 24.3 45.2 -1.1
7.4 6.5 2.6 4.8 6.5 4.0 28.5 25.0 44.9 -0.8
7.7 4.5 2.6 5.1 6.7 2.7 29.5 25.4 45.0 0.4
7.9 2.4 2.7 5.2 6.8 1.3 29.9 25.5 45.2 0.3
8.3 5.3 2.8 5.5 7.0 3.9 31.1 26.3 46.1 2.2
8.8 4.9 2.9 5.8 7.3 3.4 32.3 26.8 47.1 2.1
9.2 5.0 3.1 6.1 7.5 3.3 33.4 27.3 48.1 2.1
9.7 5.3 3.2 6.5 7.8 3.6 34.6 27.9 49.2 2.2
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 58.2 58.1 58.9 57.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 -0.2 1.4 -1.8 Manufacturing 11.1 9.7 9.3 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -11.8 -4.5 0.3 Nonmanufacturing 47.2 48.4 49.6 48.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.6 2.6 -2.2 Construction & Mining 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.2 1.4 -12.1 -24.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 10.9 11.3 12.0 11.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 4.2 5.4 -2.3 Wholesale Trade 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.8 Retail Trade 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 Information 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 -18.4 -7.1 -11.9 Financial Activities 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.9 5.0 -2.9 -4.7 Prof & Business Services 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 11.4 5.4 -4.4 Educ & Health Services 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -1.4 4.7 0.7 Leisure & Hospitality 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 1.2 4.2 0.7 Other Services 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 -10.4 2.2 -6.3 Federal Government 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 -7.0 9.5 1.2 State & Local Government 13.3 14.0 14.4 14.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 4.9 3.0 2.6
55.4 -4.2 8.6 -8.0 46.9 -3.5 1.6 -32.0 11.5 -1.5 2.0 7.3 2.2 0.6 -5.9 1.6 -12.6 4.1 -7.7 5.6 0.1 4.7 -6.3 1.4 -6.9 0.8 -0.1 15.0 1.9
56.2 1.3 8.3 -3.0 47.9 2.1 1.6 -2.6 11.4 -1.0 2.0 7.2 2.2 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 4.2 3.7 5.9 5.5 4.5 -3.5 1.4 -0.1 0.8 5.2 15.8 5.3
56.7 0.9 8.2 -0.9 48.4 1.2 1.5 -2.1 11.8 3.5 2.0 7.4 2.4 0.4 -29.5 1.5 -3.6 4.4 4.7 6.3 6.0 4.6 2.7 1.4 1.3 0.8 -5.8 15.6 -1.2
57.5 1.5 8.5 3.0 49.0 1.3 1.7 7.9 12.2 3.4 2.3 7.4 2.5 0.4 -7.1 1.6 2.5 4.4 -1.2 6.3 1.4 4.7 1.5 1.4 -0.3 0.7 -5.1 15.7 0.3
59.1 2.9 8.9 4.5 50.3 2.6 1.9 16.8 12.4 1.9 2.7 7.3 2.3 0.4 0.9 1.7 5.1 4.7 7.4 6.4 0.5 4.8 2.5 1.3 -5.8 0.7 -7.3 16.0 2.1
60.6 2.4 9.1 2.5 51.5 2.4 2.1 9.1 12.5 1.2 2.8 7.4 2.4 0.4 1.4 1.7 2.3 4.9 5.4 6.5 1.6 4.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 16.4 2.4
62.1 2.5 9.2 1.8 52.8 2.6 2.4 13.2 12.8 1.8 2.9 7.4 2.5 0.4 0.8 1.7 1.2 5.2 5.9 6.6 2.1 4.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.7 -0.6 16.7 2.1
63.5 2.3 9.4 1.4 54.2 2.5 2.8 16.2 13.0 1.8 3.0 7.5 2.5 0.4 3.0 1.7 -0.1 5.5 4.8 6.8 2.8 5.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.7 -1.6 17.0 1.5
65.0 2.3 9.4 0.8 55.6 2.6 3.2 15.5 13.2 1.4 3.0 7.6 2.6 0.4 2.1 1.7 -1.0 5.7 4.4 7.0 3.1 5.0 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.7 -0.9 17.3 1.7
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
253.2 1.0 105.6 3.3 16.9 120 119 2
257.4 1.7 109.3 3.4 18.8 119 116 3
260.2 1.1 110.2 0.9 18.3 127 99 28
262.6 0.9 109.3 -0.8 17.4 182 72 110
265.1 1.0 110.1 0.8 15.6 234 179 55
268.0 1.1 111.1 0.9 14.5 727 599 128
271.4 275.1 1.2 1.4 112.2 113.4 1.0 1.1 13.0 12.4 1150 1254.1 1042 1131.2 108 122.9
279.3 1.5 114.8 1.2 11.7 1214 1075 138.5
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (2005$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (2005$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago
34
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
242.7 2.1 99.0 1.0 10.0 3367 3279 88
245.8 1.2 98.3 -0.7 9.5 2451 2380 71
248.7 1.2 100.0 1.8 10.1 856 837 19
250.7 0.8 102.2 2.2 12.6 363 283 80
Modesto MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Though increasing, employment in the Modesto MSA is experiencing a slight lull in 2013. After an employment increase of 1.8 percent last year, 2013 only brings 1.1 percent growth in employment. This will increase again to 1.7 percent job growth in 2014. When looking at the quarterly break down of 2013, the decline in employment growth begins in the first quarter with a 0.8 percent increase. Towards the end of the year, employment increases again with a 1.5 percent increase in the third quarter and a 1.1 percent increase in the fourth quarter. The leading sectors in job growth are the construction & mining sector with a 4.5 percent increase and trade, trans, & utilities with a 3.3 percent growth in employment. Most other sectors will experience slight to moderate growth with the exceptions of manufacturing, information, and the federal, state & local governments.
Real personal income will increase to $15.0 billion in 2013 which is a 1.1 percent increase from last year’s $14.9 billion. This will continue to grow each year with a 3.9 percent increase in 2014, 3.3 percent increase in 2015, and a 3.5 percent consecutive increase in 2016 and 2017. Population in Modesto continues to increase at an increasing rate as it reaches a 0.8 percent growth in 2013. The population is expected to continue its slight increase each year until 2017. After two consecutive years of decline in labor force, 2013 brings an increase of 0.2 percent. Labor force will continue to grow on average 0.9 percent through the remainder of the forecast. Unemployment rate continues to drop to 14.2 percent in 2013. This rate continues to decline at a decreasing rate each year until it reaches 10.1 percent in 2017. Modesto Payroll Employment (Thousands)
Modesto Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 170
10%
8%
160
6%
150 4%
140 2%
130 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
120 -2%
110 -4%
100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-6%
Modesto and California Unemployment Rates (percent)
Modesto Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100)
19% Unemployment Rate (%) 17%
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
15%
200 180 160 140
13%
120 11%
9%
100 80 60
7%
5%
40 20 0
3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
35
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO
Quarterly Outlook for Modesto May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.8 3.6 5.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.1 Wages and Salaries 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 Nonwage Income 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.2 Real Personal Income (2005$) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 1.1 2.1 3.9 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.2 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 32.6 32.8 33.0 33.5 32.9 33.2 33.6 33.9 34.4 34.7 35.0 35.3 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 47.4 47.4 47.9 47.7 47.5 47.7 48.0 48.3 48.6 49.0 49.3 49.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -0.5 1.9 3.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 1.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.6 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 148.1 148.6 148.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 2.8 1.4 Manufacturing 20.9 20.9 20.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 3.2 -0.8 Nonmanufacturing 127.2 127.7 127.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.8 1.7 Construction & Mining 6.0 6.1 6.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 6.5 11.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 32.9 33.1 33.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 3.6 3.2 Wholesale Trade 5.7 5.8 5.9 Retail Trade 20.5 20.5 20.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 6.7 6.8 6.9 Information 1.0 1.1 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.8 -2.9 -6.2 Financial Activities 5.4 5.3 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -1.7 0.5 Prof & Business Services 12.7 12.9 12.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 7.3 3.4 Educ & Health Services 24.0 24.0 23.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.4 0.7 Leisure & Hospitality 14.8 14.9 14.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 4.8 1.3 Other Services 4.9 4.9 4.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 3.7 1.3 Federal Government 0.9 0.9 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.1 -11.1 State & Local Government 24.6 24.5 24.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 -0.9 -1.0 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
36
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
520.8 0.7 235.7 -1.2 15.8 147 92 56
521.7 0.7 235.4 -0.6 15.8 423 131 292
522.7 0.7 234.1 -0.7 15.5 262 196 66
149.6 1.6 20.7 -1.9 128.8 2.2 6.5 11.8 33.9 3.5 5.8 21.1 7.0 1.0 -9.4 5.4 1.0 12.8 2.5 24.0 0.9 15.0 2.5 4.9 0.4 0.8 -11.4 24.6 0.9
149.3 0.8 20.5 -2.0 128.9 1.3 6.4 6.6 34.1 3.6 5.9 21.1 7.1 1.0 -4.0 5.5 2.1 12.7 -0.1 24.1 0.4 15.1 1.8 4.9 1.7 0.8 -11.9 24.3 -1.3
149.9 0.9 20.4 -2.6 129.5 1.4 6.5 6.4 34.4 3.8 5.9 21.1 7.3 1.0 -3.9 5.5 3.3 12.8 -0.5 24.2 0.7 15.1 1.5 4.9 0.4 0.8 -12.6 24.3 -0.8
150.6 1.5 20.4 -0.8 130.2 1.9 6.6 2.1 34.6 3.4 6.0 21.1 7.5 1.0 -2.1 5.5 2.2 13.0 1.6 24.2 1.7 15.2 2.6 4.9 0.7 0.8 -3.1 24.3 0.1
151.2 1.1 20.4 -1.9 130.9 1.6 6.7 3.0 34.8 2.6 6.0 21.1 7.7 1.0 2.8 5.6 1.9 13.1 2.9 24.4 1.4 15.2 1.8 4.9 1.8 0.8 -3.2 24.4 -0.8
151.7 1.6 20.4 0.0 131.3 1.9 6.8 7.1 34.8 1.9 6.0 21.0 7.8 1.0 2.4 5.6 0.9 13.3 4.7 24.4 1.4 15.2 1.0 4.9 0.2 0.8 -2.3 24.4 0.6
152.3 1.6 20.5 0.5 131.8 1.8 7.0 8.2 34.8 1.3 6.0 21.0 7.8 1.0 1.3 5.6 1.2 13.5 4.8 24.5 1.4 15.2 0.7 5.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 24.5 0.7
153.2 1.7 20.7 1.5 132.5 1.8 7.2 9.5 34.9 0.7 6.0 21.0 7.8 1.0 0.6 5.6 1.3 13.6 5.1 24.6 1.4 15.2 0.3 5.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 24.6 1.0
153.9 1.8 20.8 2.0 133.1 1.7 7.4 10.7 35.0 0.6 6.1 21.1 7.9 1.0 0.0 5.6 1.2 13.8 5.2 24.7 1.4 15.2 -0.1 5.0 0.3 0.8 -0.1 24.6 1.0
523.6 0.7 233.8 -0.8 15.0 214 206 8
524.6 0.7 234.2 -0.6 14.3 197 179 18
525.7 0.8 234.9 -0.2 14.2 289 275 15
526.9 0.8 235.6 0.6 14.1 425 364 61
528.1 0.9 236.2 1.0 14.0 572 478 94
529.5 0.9 236.7 1.1 13.7 810 672 138
530.9 1.0 237.3 1.0 13.5 1126 937 189
532.4 1.1 237.7 0.9 13.2 1422 1192 231
533.9 1.1 238.2 0.8 12.8 1712 1444 267
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO
Quarterly Outlook for Modesto May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.6 21.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 Wages and Salaries 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 Nonwage Income 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 Real Personal Income (2005$) 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 35.6 36.0 36.3 36.6 37.0 37.3 37.6 37.9 38.3 38.7 39.0 39.4 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.4 31.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 49.9 50.2 50.5 50.7 51.1 51.4 51.7 52.1 52.5 52.9 53.3 53.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.1 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 154.5 155.2 156.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.9 1.8 Manufacturing 20.8 20.8 20.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.6 0.8 Nonmanufacturing 133.7 134.3 135.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.9 2.0 Construction & Mining 7.6 7.9 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.9 13.3 14.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 35.1 35.1 35.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.0 1.2 Wholesale Trade 6.1 6.1 6.2 Retail Trade 21.0 21.0 21.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 8.0 8.0 8.1 Information 1.0 1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -0.5 0.7 Financial Activities 5.6 5.7 5.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.5 1.1 Prof & Business Services 14.0 14.1 14.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 5.0 4.9 Educ & Health Services 24.8 24.8 24.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.4 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 15.2 15.2 15.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 Other Services 5.0 4.9 4.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -1.6 -1.4 State & Local Government 24.7 24.7 24.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 0.8 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
535.3 1.1 238.5 0.8 12.6 2028 1701 327
536.6 1.1 238.9 0.7 12.2 2321 1960 361
538.3 1.1 239.4 0.7 11.8 2548 2154 394
156.9 1.9 21.0 1.0 135.9 2.1 8.5 15.1 35.5 1.3 6.2 21.1 8.1 1.0 1.8 5.7 0.7 14.5 4.8 25.1 1.5 15.2 -0.3 4.9 -0.7 0.8 -1.4 24.8 0.8
157.7 2.1 21.0 1.1 136.7 2.2 8.8 15.1 35.6 1.5 6.2 21.2 8.2 1.0 2.5 5.6 0.1 14.6 4.7 25.2 1.9 15.2 -0.2 4.9 -0.6 0.8 -2.3 24.9 0.9
158.4 2.1 21.1 1.1 137.4 2.2 9.0 14.0 35.7 1.5 6.3 21.2 8.3 1.1 2.7 5.6 -0.6 14.8 4.4 25.4 2.2 15.2 0.0 4.9 -0.4 0.8 -2.2 25.0 1.0
159.2 2.1 21.1 1.1 138.1 2.2 9.2 12.2 35.8 1.6 6.3 21.2 8.4 1.1 3.2 5.6 -0.8 14.9 4.0 25.6 2.4 15.2 0.1 4.9 -0.1 0.8 -2.1 25.0 1.1
159.9 2.0 21.2 1.1 138.7 2.1 9.4 9.9 36.0 1.4 6.3 21.2 8.4 1.1 2.8 5.6 -1.1 15.0 3.7 25.7 2.6 15.2 0.1 4.9 0.2 0.7 -2.1 25.1 1.3
160.6 1.9 21.2 0.9 139.4 2.0 9.5 8.4 36.1 1.5 6.4 21.3 8.5 1.1 2.6 5.6 -1.1 15.1 3.6 25.9 2.5 15.2 0.3 4.9 0.2 0.7 -1.4 25.2 1.3
161.2 1.8 21.2 0.7 140.0 1.9 9.6 7.0 36.2 1.5 6.4 21.3 8.5 1.1 1.9 5.6 -0.9 15.3 3.5 26.0 2.4 15.2 0.4 4.9 0.4 0.7 -1.4 25.3 1.4
161.9 1.7 21.2 0.5 140.7 1.9 9.7 5.7 36.4 1.5 6.4 21.3 8.6 1.1 1.5 5.6 -0.9 15.4 3.4 26.2 2.5 15.3 0.5 5.0 0.4 0.7 -1.3 25.4 1.4
162.5 1.6 21.2 0.3 141.3 1.8 9.8 4.8 36.5 1.4 6.5 21.3 8.7 1.1 1.3 5.5 -0.9 15.5 3.2 26.4 2.5 15.3 0.4 5.0 0.4 0.7 -1.3 25.5 1.5
539.9 1.1 240.0 0.8 11.5 2617 2203 414
541.8 1.2 240.5 0.8 11.3 2668 2235 433
543.7 1.3 241.1 0.9 11.0 2728 2274 454
545.6 1.4 241.7 1.0 10.8 2786 2318 468
547.5 1.4 242.3 1.0 10.7 2851 2365 486
549.4 1.4 242.8 0.9 10.5 2912 2401 511
551.4 1.4 243.3 0.9 10.2 2922 2391 531
553.3 1.4 243.7 0.8 10.1 2909 2366 543
555.2 1.4 244.1 0.7 9.8 2913.4 2347.7 565.7
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
37
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO
Annual Outlook for Modesto May 2013 Forecast 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
14.2 4.4 6.4 7.8 14.2 1.4 28.4 28.4 40.2 3.6
14.9 4.8 6.6 8.3 14.5 2.0 29.5 28.8 41.4 2.9
15.7 5.4 6.9 8.8 14.9 2.7 31.0 29.4 42.9 3.7
15.8 0.6 7.0 8.8 14.5 -2.5 31.1 28.5 44.7 4.2
15.4 -2.6 6.8 8.6 14.1 -2.6 30.1 27.6 45.9 2.7
16.0 3.6 6.8 9.2 14.4 1.7 31.0 27.9 46.2 0.7
16.7 4.2 6.9 9.7 14.6 1.7 32.1 28.2 47.1 1.8
17.2 3.5 7.1 10.1 14.9 1.7 33.0 28.5 47.6 1.1
17.6 2.1 7.2 10.4 15.0 1.1 33.4 28.6 47.9 0.6
18.5 5.3 7.5 11.0 15.6 3.9 34.8 29.4 49.1 2.6
19.4 4.8 7.9 11.5 16.1 3.3 36.1 30.0 50.3 2.4
20.4 5.1 8.2 12.2 16.7 3.5 37.5 30.7 51.6 2.6
21.5 5.2 8.6 12.8 17.3 3.5 38.8 31.3 53.1 2.9
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 159.0 159.9 160.2 156.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 0.5 0.2 -2.3 Manufacturing 22.6 22.2 22.9 22.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 -1.8 3.3 -1.3 Nonmanufacturing 136.4 137.7 137.3 133.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 0.9 -0.3 -2.5 Construction & Mining 13.4 13.3 11.2 9.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.8 -0.5 -15.2 -18.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.7 33.6 33.7 32.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 -0.2 0.5 -2.6 Wholesale Trade 6.2 5.9 6.1 6.0 Retail Trade 22.3 22.5 22.1 21.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.7 Information 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 -3.9 -5.5 -19.2 Financial Activities 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.6 -1.2 -2.3 Prof & Business Services 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 -0.4 -0.1 -3.3 Educ & Health Services 19.3 19.8 21.1 21.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 2.6 6.4 2.8 Leisure & Hospitality 14.7 15.3 15.4 15.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.9 Other Services 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 -3.4 1.5 -3.8 Federal Government 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -1.9 -6.9 -18.8 State & Local Government 24.4 25.1 25.4 25.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.8 1.2 1.5
146.7 -6.2 20.9 -7.7 125.9 -6.0 6.6 -27.3 31.4 -4.5 6.1 19.5 5.7 1.3 -30.1 5.6 -7.6 13.2 -7.8 22.2 2.3 14.7 -5.6 5.2 -10.2 0.9 -1.0 24.9 -3.3
146.3 -0.3 20.7 -0.9 125.7 -0.2 5.9 -10.7 31.6 0.7 5.9 19.5 6.2 1.2 -4.5 5.4 -2.6 12.5 -5.1 23.2 4.5 14.6 -0.6 5.0 -2.6 1.0 12.8 25.2 1.3
146.0 -0.2 20.7 0.0 125.3 -0.3 5.8 -1.6 32.2 1.8 5.8 20.0 6.4 1.1 -8.3 5.4 -0.9 12.2 -1.9 23.7 2.0 14.5 -0.6 4.9 -3.9 0.9 -9.0 24.8 -1.8
148.7 1.8 20.8 0.6 127.9 2.0 6.2 7.8 33.4 3.7 5.8 20.7 6.8 1.0 -6.1 5.4 0.0 12.8 4.5 24.0 1.3 14.9 2.8 4.9 0.7 0.8 -5.6 24.5 -1.1
150.3 1.1 20.4 -1.8 129.9 1.5 6.5 4.5 34.5 3.3 5.9 21.1 7.4 1.0 -1.8 5.5 2.4 12.9 1.0 24.2 1.0 15.2 1.9 4.9 1.2 0.8 -7.7 24.3 -0.7
152.8 1.7 20.6 1.0 132.2 1.8 7.1 8.9 34.9 1.1 6.0 21.0 7.8 1.0 1.1 5.6 1.1 13.5 4.9 24.6 1.4 15.2 0.5 5.0 0.4 0.8 -0.3 24.5 0.8
155.6 1.9 20.9 1.3 134.8 2.0 8.1 13.6 35.2 1.1 6.1 21.1 8.0 1.0 0.2 5.7 1.2 14.2 5.0 24.9 1.4 15.2 -0.3 4.9 -0.3 0.8 -1.2 24.8 0.9
158.8 2.0 21.1 1.1 137.7 2.2 9.1 12.8 35.8 1.5 6.3 21.2 8.3 1.1 2.8 5.6 -0.6 14.8 4.2 25.5 2.3 15.2 0.0 4.9 -0.2 0.8 -2.2 25.0 1.0
161.6 1.7 21.2 0.6 140.3 1.9 9.7 6.5 36.3 1.5 6.4 21.3 8.6 1.1 1.8 5.6 -0.9 15.3 3.4 26.1 2.5 15.2 0.4 4.9 0.4 0.7 -1.4 25.4 1.4
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
512.0 0.5 234.9 1.3 15.8 375 289 86
515.3 0.6 239.4 1.9 17.3 270 169 101
518.5 0.6 236.6 -1.2 16.8 212 132 80
522.2 0.7 234.7 -0.8 15.5 262 156 105
526.3 0.8 235.2 0.2 14.2 371 324 47
531.7 1.0 237.5 1.0 13.3 1267 1061 206
537.5 1.1 239.2 0.7 12.0 2379 2005 374
544.6 1.3 241.4 0.9 10.9 2758 2298 460
552.3 1.4 243.5 0.8 10.1 2914 2377 538
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (2005$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (2005$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago
38
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
500.4 1.4 227.1 1.1 8.4 4525 4200 326
505.0 0.9 225.1 -0.9 8.0 2661 2368 293
507.9 0.6 227.3 1.0 8.7 1720 1396 324
509.4 0.3 232.0 2.1 11.0 636 534 102
Oakland MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total non-farm employment for the Oakland MSA will increase at a rate of 1.8 percent for 2013. After an initial increase of 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2013, the increase in employment falls to 1.8 percent in the second quarter, 1.7 in the third and finally 1.5 in the fifth. The leading sectors in job growth for 2013 are Construction & Mining, with an 8.5 percent increase, Professional & Business Services, with a 5.1 percent increase, and Leisure & Hospitality with a 3.5% increase. The other sectors have either a minute increase in job growth or have a slight to moderate decreases in job growth. Real personal income for 2013 increases 1.9 percent from 2012’s $122.8 Billion to %125.2 Billion. In 2014 real personal income is expected to shoot up 4.1 percent, which is the largest increase
since 2006. Following 2014, real personal income will continue to increase at a decreasing rate until 2017. Population increased 1.4 percent in 2013. An increase in population is expected every year for the remainder of the forecast. With the increase in population also comes an increase in labor force. Labor force will increase 1.3 percent from 2012. 2014 will see the same increase in labor force of 1.3 percent and it will continue to increase at a steady rate until 2017. Unemployment rate continues to fall in 2013. After an unemployment rate of 9.1 percent in 2012, it will decrease to 7.9 percent this year. Unemployment will continue to decline a solid amount each year until it reaches 4.4 percent in 2017.
Oakland Real Personal Income (Percent change from one year ago)
Oakland Payroll Employment (Thousands)
20%
1100
1075 15%
1050 10%
1025
1000
5%
975 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
950
-5%
925
900 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-10%
Oakland and California Unemployment Rates (percent) 14%
200 Unemployment Rate (%)
12%
Oakland Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100)
180
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
160 10%
140 120
8%
6%
100 80 60
4%
40 20
2%
0 Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
39
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND
Quarterly Outlook for Oakland May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 139.9 141.1 142.6 145.1 143.9 145.5 147.2 149.2 151.5 153.5 155.5 157.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.4 4.1 5.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.8 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.4 Wages and Salaries 64.9 65.2 66.1 66.7 66.9 67.5 68.2 69.1 70.0 70.9 71.8 72.6 Nonwage Income 75.0 75.9 76.5 78.4 77.0 78.0 78.9 80.1 81.5 82.6 83.7 84.7 Real Personal Income (2005$) 121.4 122.2 123.0 124.7 123.3 124.7 125.7 127.1 128.5 129.7 130.9 132.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.7 2.6 4.0 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.9 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 53.3 53.6 54.0 54.7 54.1 54.5 54.9 55.5 56.2 56.7 57.3 57.8 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 46.2 46.4 46.5 47.0 46.3 46.7 46.9 47.3 47.7 48.0 48.3 48.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 66.6 66.3 66.9 67.0 67.2 67.5 67.9 68.4 69.0 69.5 70.0 70.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.6 1.8 2.9 0.9 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.0 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 969.6 977.0 982.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.3 2.3 Manufacturing 80.1 80.8 80.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -0.1 -1.0 Nonmanufacturing 889.5 896.2 902.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.6 2.6 Construction & Mining 51.6 52.3 53.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.0 9.9 7.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 178.0 178.9 179.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.4 1.7 Wholesale Trade 42.7 43.1 43.6 Retail Trade 102.4 102.8 102.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 32.9 33.0 32.8 Information 22.0 22.2 21.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.7 -1.8 -2.8 Financial Activities 48.5 48.5 48.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.4 0.7 Prof & Business Services 161.7 164.1 165.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 4.6 4.8 Educ & Health Services 139.3 140.2 141.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.4 2.9 Leisure & Hospitality 90.3 91.5 92.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 4.2 4.2 Other Services 36.1 36.1 36.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.7 1.6 Federal Government 14.3 14.2 14.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 -2.9 -2.7 State & Local Government 147.7 148.1 149.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -1.2 0.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
40
2625.3 1.3 1292.5 0.8 9.5 2958 2093 865
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
2634.3 1.4 1297.5 1.1 9.3 3789 2597 1192
2643.5 1.4 1299.4 1.0 9.0 6693 2882 3811
989.4 2.7 80.1 -0.1 909.3 2.9 54.5 7.7 179.6 1.2 43.4 103.4 32.8 21.9 -1.7 48.2 0.2 168.5 5.8 143.2 3.9 93.9 5.3 36.1 0.2 14.1 -2.2 149.2 0.7
990.5 2.2 79.0 -1.4 911.5 2.5 56.2 9.0 180.6 1.4 44.0 103.3 33.3 21.4 -3.0 48.3 -0.3 170.7 5.6 142.0 2.0 94.6 4.7 35.6 -1.2 13.9 -2.6 148.2 0.3
994.9 1.8 79.1 -2.1 915.8 2.2 56.8 8.6 181.4 1.4 44.2 103.7 33.5 21.6 -2.9 48.3 -0.5 172.6 5.2 142.7 1.8 95.0 3.7 35.7 -1.3 13.6 -3.9 148.2 0.0
999.6 1.7 79.6 -0.7 920.1 2.0 57.8 8.9 182.0 1.5 44.5 103.7 33.8 21.5 -1.7 48.5 0.3 174.2 5.0 143.4 1.3 95.3 3.4 35.7 -1.7 13.5 -4.8 148.1 -1.0
1004.7 1.5 79.7 -0.5 925.0 1.7 58.7 7.6 182.4 1.5 44.7 103.6 34.0 21.6 -1.4 48.6 1.0 176.2 4.6 144.2 0.7 95.9 2.1 35.8 -0.9 13.5 -4.4 148.2 -0.7
1009.6 1.9 80.1 1.4 929.5 2.0 59.8 6.3 182.3 0.9 44.9 103.1 34.3 21.7 1.7 48.8 0.9 178.3 4.5 144.9 2.0 96.0 1.5 35.8 0.6 13.6 -2.5 148.3 0.1
1014.7 2.0 80.3 1.5 934.4 2.0 61.2 7.7 182.6 0.7 45.0 103.1 34.5 21.7 0.5 48.9 1.2 180.6 4.6 145.3 1.8 96.1 1.2 35.9 0.7 13.6 0.1 148.5 0.2
1020.7 2.1 81.1 1.9 939.7 2.1 62.9 8.8 183.0 0.6 45.1 103.2 34.7 21.6 0.1 49.1 1.2 182.9 5.0 145.7 1.6 96.1 0.8 36.0 0.8 13.5 0.2 149.0 0.5
1026.4 2.2 81.2 1.9 945.1 2.2 64.6 10.1 183.7 0.7 45.4 103.4 35.0 21.5 -0.2 49.2 1.2 185.2 5.1 146.2 1.4 96.2 0.3 36.0 0.6 13.4 -0.6 149.2 0.7
2652.7 1.4 1303.5 1.1 8.6 5029 3301 1729
2661.7 1.4 1306.0 1.1 8.1 5276 2876 2400
2670.4 1.4 1312.2 1.1 8.0 6288 3329 2959
2679.1 1.3 1317.5 1.4 7.8 6864 3429 3434
2687.9 1.3 1322.5 1.5 7.7 7557 3556 4000
2696.6 1.3 1326.6 1.6 7.4 8363 3943 4420
2704.9 1.3 1330.0 1.4 7.2 9213 4556 4657
2713.2 1.3 1333.7 1.2 6.9 9742 5024 4718
2721.5 1.3 1336.8 1.1 6.6 10257 5479 4778
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND
Quarterly Outlook for Oakland May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 159.4 161.3 163.1 164.9 167.2 169.0 170.9 172.9 175.2 177.3 179.4 181.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 Wages and Salaries 73.6 74.5 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.3 79.2 80.0 81.0 81.9 82.8 83.7 Nonwage Income 85.8 86.8 87.7 88.4 89.7 90.7 91.7 92.9 94.2 95.4 96.7 97.9 Real Personal Income (2005$) 133.3 134.4 135.5 136.3 137.8 138.7 139.6 140.6 142.0 143.1 144.2 145.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 58.4 58.9 59.4 59.9 60.5 61.1 61.6 62.1 62.8 63.4 64.0 64.6 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 48.8 49.1 49.3 49.5 49.9 50.1 50.3 50.5 50.9 51.2 51.4 51.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 71.0 71.5 72.0 72.6 73.1 73.6 74.1 74.5 75.1 75.7 76.2 76.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1031.4 1037.1 1043.2 1049.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Manufacturing 81.3 81.5 81.7 81.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.9 Nonmanufacturing 950.1 955.7 961.5 967.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Construction & Mining 66.4 68.7 71.0 73.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.1 12.2 12.9 13.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 184.0 184.5 185.0 185.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 Wholesale Trade 45.6 45.8 46.0 46.3 Retail Trade 103.1 103.2 103.2 103.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 35.3 35.5 35.7 36.0 Information 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -0.1 1.1 1.9 Financial Activities 49.3 49.4 49.4 49.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 Prof & Business Services 187.2 189.3 191.5 193.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.4 Educ & Health Services 146.7 147.3 147.9 148.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 96.3 96.2 96.2 96.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Services 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 Federal Government 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 State & Local Government 149.3 149.4 149.7 149.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
2729.8 1.2 1340.4 1.0 6.3 10833 5971 4862
2737.6 1.2 1344.1 1.1 6.1 11359 6501 4858
2745.5 1.2 1347.7 1.1 5.8 11844 6864 4980
2753.4 1.2 1351.3 1.1 5.6 11846 6779 5067
1054.6 2.2 82.2 1.0 972.4 2.3 75.6 13.8 185.9 1.0 46.5 103.2 36.2 22.1 2.7 49.2 -0.3 195.0 4.2 149.6 1.9 96.2 -0.1 35.8 -0.6 13.1 -2.7 150.1 0.6
1059.5 2.2 82.4 1.1 977.1 2.2 77.3 12.6 186.3 1.0 46.7 103.1 36.4 22.3 2.7 49.0 -0.7 196.6 3.8 150.5 2.2 96.0 -0.2 35.7 -0.4 13.0 -2.7 150.4 0.6
1063.9 2.0 82.6 1.1 981.4 2.1 78.8 10.9 186.8 1.0 46.9 103.2 36.7 22.4 2.9 48.9 -1.0 198.0 3.4 151.3 2.3 96.0 -0.3 35.7 -0.3 12.9 -2.6 150.7 0.7
1068.8 1.9 82.8 1.0 986.0 1.9 80.0 8.9 187.2 0.9 47.1 103.3 36.9 22.5 2.5 48.7 -1.1 199.7 3.3 152.2 2.4 96.0 -0.3 35.8 0.0 12.9 -2.5 151.1 0.8
1072.6 1.7 82.8 0.8 989.8 1.8 81.1 7.4 187.6 0.9 47.3 103.2 37.1 22.6 2.1 48.6 -1.2 201.0 3.1 152.8 2.2 96.0 -0.2 35.8 0.1 12.8 -1.9 151.4 0.8
1076.4 1.6 82.9 0.7 993.5 1.7 82.0 6.0 188.0 0.9 47.4 103.2 37.3 22.7 1.9 48.4 -1.2 202.4 3.0 153.8 2.2 95.9 -0.1 35.8 0.2 12.8 -1.8 151.8 0.9
1079.8 1.5 83.0 0.6 996.8 1.6 82.5 4.7 188.4 0.9 47.6 103.2 37.6 22.8 1.5 48.3 -1.1 203.6 2.9 154.6 2.2 95.9 -0.1 35.8 0.3 12.7 -1.8 152.2 1.0
1083.2 1.4 83.1 0.4 1000.1 1.4 82.9 3.6 188.7 0.8 47.7 103.2 37.8 22.8 1.3 48.2 -1.1 204.9 2.6 155.6 2.3 95.9 -0.2 35.9 0.3 12.6 -1.7 152.7 1.1
2760.9 1.1 1355.0 1.1 5.3 11657 6482 5175
2768.3 1.1 1358.4 1.1 5.1 11542 6252 5290
2775.7 1.1 1361.9 1.1 5.0 11417 6080 5337
2783.1 1.1 1365.2 1.0 4.8 11345 5902 5443
2790.2 1.1 1367.9 1.0 4.6 11267 5621 5646
2797.0 1.0 1370.4 0.9 4.4 11199 5402 5797
2804.0 2811.0 1.0 1.0 1372.9 1375.3 0.8 0.7 4.3 4.2 11093 11105.5 5213 5071.2 5880 6034.4
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
41
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND
Annual Outlook for Oakland May 2013 Forecast 2005 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 115.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 Wages and Salaries 57.5 Nonwage Income 57.8 Real Personal Income (2005$) 115.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 47.2 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 47.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 55.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
124.0 7.6 60.8 63.2 120.7 4.7 50.7 49.3 57.9 4.4
129.9 4.8 63.6 66.3 123.2 2.0 52.6 49.9 60.4 4.4
134.2 3.3 64.0 70.2 123.2 0.0 53.6 49.2 61.7 2.2
125.2 -6.7 60.5 64.7 114.9 -6.8 49.3 45.2 62.1 0.6
129.7 3.6 61.4 68.3 116.8 1.7 50.4 45.4 64.3 3.6
136.7 5.4 63.4 73.3 120.1 2.9 52.5 46.1 65.8 2.3
142.2 4.0 65.7 76.5 122.8 2.2 53.9 46.5 66.7 1.4
146.4 3.0 67.9 78.5 125.2 1.9 54.7 46.8 67.7 1.5
154.4 5.5 71.3 83.1 130.3 4.1 57.0 48.1 69.7 2.9
162.2 5.0 75.0 87.2 134.9 3.5 59.2 49.2 71.7 2.9
170.0 4.8 78.8 91.2 139.2 3.2 61.3 50.2 73.8 2.9
178.4 4.9 82.3 96.0 143.6 3.2 63.7 51.3 76.0 2.9
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1032.0 1045.3 1048.1 1030.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.3 0.3 -1.6 Manufacturing 95.6 95.8 94.3 93.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 0.2 -1.5 -1.4 Nonmanufacturing 936.4 949.5 953.8 937.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.4 0.4 -1.7 Construction & Mining 73.9 74.5 72.9 66.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 0.8 -2.1 -9.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 195.7 197.9 199.3 192.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.1 0.7 -3.2 Wholesale Trade 48.6 48.8 48.7 47.6 Retail Trade 112.1 113.3 113.3 109.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 35.1 35.8 37.3 35.9 Information 30.6 30.1 29.0 27.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 -1.8 -3.6 -4.1 Financial Activities 65.7 63.7 58.1 52.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 -3.2 -8.7 -9.3 Prof & Business Services 150.7 155.1 158.1 163.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.9 2.0 3.3 Educ & Health Services 121.2 124.8 128.2 132.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 3.0 2.7 3.5 Leisure & Hospitality 83.0 85.6 88.0 89.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 3.1 2.8 1.2 Other Services 35.6 35.9 36.2 36.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 1.0 0.8 -0.3 Federal Government 17.3 17.3 17.1 17.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -0.2 -1.2 0.2 State & Local Government 162.6 164.7 166.8 160.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 1.3 1.3 -4.0
968.7 -6.0 82.8 -11.0 885.9 -5.5 54.8 -17.2 179.0 -7.2 43.6 102.1 33.2 25.3 -9.2 48.0 -8.8 151.1 -7.4 135.6 2.1 85.0 -4.5 34.6 -4.0 16.7 -2.3 155.8 -2.7
948.6 -2.1 79.8 -3.6 868.8 -1.9 48.7 -11.0 173.6 -3.0 41.8 100.3 31.5 23.6 -6.6 48.2 0.4 152.2 0.8 136.5 0.7 85.8 0.9 34.9 0.9 15.7 -5.7 149.6 -4.0
957.4 0.9 80.5 0.9 876.9 0.9 48.8 0.2 175.4 1.0 42.1 101.1 32.2 22.6 -4.3 47.7 -0.9 157.3 3.4 137.3 0.6 88.2 2.9 35.7 2.1 14.6 -7.1 149.3 -0.1
979.6 2.3 80.3 -0.2 899.3 2.6 52.9 8.4 179.0 2.0 43.2 102.9 32.9 22.0 -2.5 48.4 1.4 165.0 4.9 141.0 2.8 92.0 4.2 36.2 1.3 14.2 -2.7 148.7 -0.4
997.4 1017.9 1040.2 1061.7 1078.0 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 79.3 80.7 81.6 82.5 83.0 -1.2 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.6 918.1 937.2 958.6 979.2 995.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.6 57.4 62.1 69.9 77.9 82.1 8.5 8.2 12.5 11.5 5.4 181.6 182.9 184.7 186.5 188.2 1.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 44.3 45.1 45.9 46.8 47.5 103.6 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 33.7 34.6 35.6 36.6 37.5 21.5 21.6 21.7 22.3 22.7 -2.2 0.5 0.5 2.7 1.7 48.4 49.0 49.3 49.0 48.4 0.1 1.1 0.7 -0.8 -1.2 173.4 181.7 190.3 197.3 203.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 3.7 2.9 143.1 145.5 147.6 150.9 154.2 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.2 2.2 95.2 96.1 96.2 96.0 95.9 3.5 1.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 35.7 35.9 35.9 35.7 35.8 -1.3 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.7 -3.9 -0.7 -1.6 -2.6 -1.8 148.2 148.7 149.6 150.6 152.0 -0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
42
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
2441.3 2448.7 2470.3 2505.0 2540.3 2571.9 2603.0 2638.9 2674.8 2709.0 2741.6 2772.0 2800.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1246.5 1247.6 1261.6 1282.3 1286.2 1284.4 1285.1 1298.2 1314.6 1331.8 1345.9 1360.1 1371.6 -0.6 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.3 -0.1 0.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 5.0 4.4 4.7 6.2 10.3 11.2 10.4 9.1 7.9 7.0 5.9 5.0 4.4 10101 9485 6244 4252 2830 3163 3059 4617 6496 9394 11471 11490 11166 6934 5267 4134 2114 1907 1921 1616 2718 3298 4751 6529 6179 5327 3166 4219 2109 2137 923 1242 1443 1899 3198 4643 4942 5311 5839
Sacramento MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK After the decrease in employment from 2007 to 2011, the Sacramento MSA is continuing to build its employment rate with a 1.6 percent increase in jobs in 2013. This growth in employment is expected to continue every year for the next four years. Starting in the first quarter of 2013, there is a 1.8 percent growth in jobs, followed by 1.3, 1.4, and 1.9 percent growths in the second, third, and fourth quarters. Professional & business services followed by manufacturing are the two leading sectors in Sacramento with employment increases of 4.4 and 4.0 percent. Most other sectors in the region are experiencing slight to moderate growth with the exceptions of information, federal government, and other services which are experiencing declines in jobs. Real personal income is experiencing a lull in 2013 in which there is only a total increase of 0.6 percent. After a 3.0 percent
increase in the fourth quarter of 2012, the first quarter of 2013 brought a 0.1 percent decline in income. This steadily increases each quarter until there is a 1.2 percent increase by the fourth quarter. 2014 will bring a jump in real personal income of 4.0 percent. Population in Sacramento begins its gradual incline with a rate of 1.0 percent in 2013. The following four years have year-on-year increases of 1.2 percent, 1.3 percent, 1.5 percent, and 1.6 percent. After a previous three year decline in labor force, 2013 brings an increase of 0.3 percent. This will continue to increase throughout the forecast horizon. Unemployment continues to decline to 9.4 percent in 2013. This will continue to decrease throughout the next four years until it reaches 7.0 percent in 2017.
Sacramento Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)
Sacramento Payroll Employment (Thousands)
10%
950
8%
900 6%
850
4%
2%
800 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
750
-2%
-4%
700 -6%
650 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-8%
Sacramento and California Unemployment Rate (percent) 14%
Sacramento Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100) 200
Unemployment Rate (%) CA Unemployment Rate (%) 12%
180 160 140
10%
120 100 8%
80 60 6%
40 4%
20 0 Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
43
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO
Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 90.3 91.0 91.7 92.7 91.3 92.3 93.3 94.6 96.1 97.2 98.5 99.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.1 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.4 Wages and Salaries 47.5 47.6 48.0 47.7 47.6 48.0 48.4 49.0 49.6 50.3 51.0 51.6 Nonwage Income 42.8 43.4 43.7 45.0 43.7 44.3 44.8 45.6 46.4 47.0 47.6 48.1 Real Personal Income (05$) 78.3 78.8 79.1 79.6 78.3 79.1 79.7 80.6 81.5 82.2 83.0 83.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 0.9 1.8 3.0 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 4.1 3.9 4.2 3.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.2 41.4 41.7 42.0 41.3 41.6 41.9 42.4 42.9 43.3 43.8 44.2 Real Per Capita Income (05$) 35.7 35.9 35.9 36.1 35.4 35.6 35.8 36.1 36.4 36.6 36.9 37.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 57.9 57.5 57.8 57.5 57.0 57.3 57.6 58.0 58.5 59.0 59.4 59.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.2 1.0 1.5 -1.6 -0.4 -0.5 0.9 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.1 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 816.3 823.2 825.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 2.3 2.1 Manufacturing 33.7 33.7 34.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.7 3.0 Nonmanufacturing 782.6 789.5 791.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 2.3 2.1 Construction & Mining 37.5 38.0 39.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 3.1 3.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 136.6 138.2 138.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 3.9 3.6 Wholesale Trade 25.0 25.3 25.3 Retail Trade 90.6 91.0 91.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 21.0 22.0 22.1 Information 15.6 15.6 15.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.4 -5.8 -6.2 Financial Activities 47.3 47.4 47.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.0 2.0 Prof & Business Services 106.9 111.1 112.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 7.8 7.8 Educ & Health Services 105.1 104.7 105.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 2.6 1.8 Leisure & Hospitality 82.4 84.1 84.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 3.6 2.9 Other Services 28.6 28.5 28.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.2 0.4 Federal Government 13.9 13.8 13.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -1.9 -2.6 State & Local Government 208.8 208.0 206.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -1.2 -1.0 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts
Single-Family Multifamily
44
2191.5 0.9 1032.8 -0.9 10.9 2454 1979 474
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
2196.5 0.9 1038.0 -0.2 10.9 3057 2492 565
2201.6 0.9 1042.8 0.4 10.4 3675 3298 377
825.7 1.5 34.3 2.3 791.3 1.5 36.3 -3.8 141.4 4.2 25.5 93.2 22.7 15.0 -5.0 48.2 2.7 111.9 5.3 107.0 3.3 82.8 0.5 27.8 -1.0 13.7 -1.6 207.2 -1.0
831.0 1.8 35.3 4.9 795.7 1.7 38.1 1.6 142.1 4.0 25.6 93.8 22.7 14.7 -5.7 48.2 2.0 113.9 6.6 107.1 1.9 83.7 1.5 26.9 -5.8 13.9 -0.2 207.1 -0.8
833.8 1.3 35.3 4.6 798.6 1.2 38.6 1.6 142.7 3.2 25.7 94.2 22.8 14.8 -5.3 48.0 1.2 115.0 3.6 107.7 2.8 83.9 -0.2 27.0 -5.5 13.6 -1.4 207.5 -0.3
837.3 1.4 35.3 3.6 802.0 1.3 39.3 0.9 143.1 3.0 25.9 94.3 22.9 14.7 -3.0 48.2 0.9 115.9 2.8 108.2 2.9 84.1 0.1 27.0 -4.0 13.5 -0.6 207.9 0.5
841.3 1.9 35.3 2.8 806.0 1.9 40.0 10.2 143.4 1.4 26.0 94.3 23.1 14.7 -1.6 48.4 0.4 117.2 4.7 108.9 1.8 84.5 2.0 27.1 -2.4 13.5 -1.6 208.3 0.5
845.0 1.7 35.5 0.5 809.5 1.7 40.8 7.2 143.4 0.9 26.1 94.0 23.3 14.9 1.3 48.5 0.7 118.4 3.9 109.5 2.3 84.4 0.9 27.2 1.0 13.6 -1.9 208.8 0.8
849.1 1.8 35.7 1.1 813.4 1.9 41.8 8.3 143.7 0.7 26.2 94.1 23.4 14.9 0.7 48.7 1.6 119.6 4.0 109.9 2.1 84.5 0.7 27.3 1.2 13.7 0.7 209.4 0.9
854.0 2.0 36.1 2.2 818.0 2.0 43.0 9.3 144.2 0.8 26.3 94.3 23.5 14.8 0.5 49.0 1.6 120.9 4.3 110.3 1.9 84.5 0.4 27.4 1.3 13.6 0.8 210.4 1.2
858.8 2.1 36.2 2.5 822.6 2.1 44.1 10.3 144.8 1.0 26.5 94.6 23.8 14.8 0.3 49.1 1.5 122.4 4.4 110.8 1.7 84.5 0.1 27.4 1.0 13.5 0.0 211.1 1.4
2206.7 0.9 1039.8 0.2 10.0 4590 4002 587
2212.3 1.0 1036.6 0.4 9.5 4136 3685 451
2218.2 1.0 1039.8 0.2 9.4 5212 4486 726
2224.2 1.0 1043.3 0.1 9.4 5830 4788 1042
2230.3 1.1 1046.5 0.6 9.3 6601 5148 1453
2236.6 1.1 1050.6 1.3 9.2 7616 5739 1877
2243.5 1.1 1054.4 1.4 9.0 8907 6667 2240
2250.5 1.2 1058.5 1.5 8.9 9907 7412 2496
2257.5 1.2 1062.3 1.5 8.7 10868 8163 2705
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO
Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 101.1 102.3 103.6 104.9 106.6 107.9 109.3 110.8 112.4 114.0 115.6 117.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 Wages and Salaries 52.2 52.9 53.6 54.4 55.1 55.8 56.5 57.2 57.9 58.6 59.4 60.1 Nonwage Income 48.8 49.4 50.0 50.5 51.5 52.1 52.8 53.6 54.5 55.4 56.2 57.0 Real Personal Income (05$) 84.5 85.3 86.0 86.8 87.8 88.6 89.3 90.1 91.1 92.0 92.9 93.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 44.6 45.0 45.4 45.9 46.4 46.8 47.2 47.7 48.2 48.7 49.1 49.6 Real Per Capita Income (05$) 37.3 37.5 37.7 37.9 38.2 38.4 38.6 38.8 39.0 39.3 39.5 39.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 60.2 60.7 61.1 61.6 62.0 62.5 62.9 63.4 63.9 64.4 64.9 65.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 863.1 868.1 873.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.2 2.3 Manufacturing 36.3 36.4 36.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.1 1.4 Nonmanufacturing 826.8 831.7 837.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.2 2.3 Construction & Mining 45.4 47.0 48.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.3 12.4 13.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 145.2 145.8 146.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.5 1.6 Wholesale Trade 26.6 26.8 27.0 Retail Trade 94.6 94.8 95.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 24.0 24.2 24.4 Information 14.8 14.9 15.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 0.5 1.8 Financial Activities 49.3 49.4 49.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.3 0.9 Prof & Business Services 123.7 125.0 126.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 4.5 4.7 Educ & Health Services 111.4 112.1 112.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 2.0 2.3 Leisure & Hospitality 84.5 84.5 84.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.0 0.1 Other Services 27.4 27.4 27.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.3 -0.1 Federal Government 13.5 13.5 13.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -1.4 -1.3 State & Local Government 211.6 212.2 212.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts
Single-Family Multifamily
2264.8 1.3 1066.4 1.5 8.5 11902 9022 2880
2272.7 1.3 1070.6 1.5 8.3 12985 10022 2964
2280.6 1.3 1074.8 1.5 8.0 13968 10889 3079
879.4 2.4 36.7 1.5 842.6 2.4 50.3 14.0 147.1 1.6 27.1 95.4 24.6 15.2 3.0 49.4 0.6 128.1 4.7 113.4 2.3 84.6 0.1 27.3 -0.2 13.4 -1.2 213.8 1.3
884.5 2.5 36.9 1.6 847.6 2.5 51.8 14.0 147.7 1.7 27.3 95.5 24.8 15.4 3.8 49.3 0.1 129.5 4.7 114.3 2.6 84.7 0.2 27.3 -0.1 13.3 -2.2 214.4 1.3
2288.4 1.4 1079.0 1.6 7.8 14378 11243 3135
2298.6 1.5 1083.4 1.6 7.6 14617 11454 3163
889.0 2.4 37.0 1.6 852.0 2.4 53.0 12.8 148.3 1.7 27.5 95.7 25.0 15.5 3.7 49.2 -0.3 130.7 4.6 115.1 2.7 84.6 0.1 27.4 0.0 13.2 -2.1 215.0 1.3
893.4 2.3 37.2 1.6 856.2 2.3 54.0 11.0 148.9 1.7 27.7 96.0 25.2 15.6 3.9 49.1 -0.6 131.9 4.2 115.9 2.7 84.6 0.0 27.4 0.2 13.2 -2.0 215.7 1.3
898.1 2.1 37.3 1.5 860.8 2.2 54.8 8.8 149.7 1.8 27.9 96.4 25.4 15.7 3.0 49.1 -0.7 133.2 4.0 116.7 2.9 84.6 0.0 27.4 0.4 13.1 -1.9 216.5 1.3
902.5 2.0 37.4 1.3 865.1 2.1 55.6 7.4 150.3 1.8 28.1 96.6 25.7 15.8 2.5 49.0 -0.7 134.4 3.8 117.4 2.8 84.8 0.2 27.5 0.5 13.1 -1.3 217.3 1.3
906.7 2.0 37.5 1.2 869.3 2.0 56.2 6.1 150.8 1.7 28.2 96.8 25.9 15.9 2.5 48.9 -0.7 135.6 3.7 118.4 2.8 84.9 0.3 27.5 0.6 13.0 -1.2 218.1 1.4
910.8 1.9 37.5 1.0 873.2 2.0 56.6 4.9 151.4 1.7 28.4 97.0 26.1 16.0 2.1 48.9 -0.6 136.7 3.6 119.2 2.9 84.9 0.4 27.6 0.8 13.0 -1.2 219.0 1.5
914.9 1.9 37.6 0.9 877.3 1.9 57.0 4.1 151.9 1.4 28.5 97.1 26.3 16.0 2.0 48.8 -0.6 137.8 3.4 120.2 3.0 85.0 0.5 27.7 0.9 13.0 -1.2 220.0 1.6
2306.8 2315.1 2323.2 2333.7 2342.5 2351.2 2359.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1087.8 1092.3 1096.9 1101.2 1105.4 1109.7 1114.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 14730 14803.7 14902.4 14877.5 14861.3 14855.8 15076.9 11536 11613.9 11689.5 11578.3 11504.6 11478.0 11639.8 3195 3189.8 3212.9 3299.2 3356.7 3377.8 3437.2
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
45
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO
Annual Outlook for Sacramento May 2013 Forecast 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
75.0 5.8 41.7 33.3 75.0 2.7 36.8 36.8 47.1 3.7
80.0 6.6 44.3 35.6 77.8 3.7 38.8 37.8 49.1 4.3
84.1 5.2 46.5 37.6 79.7 2.4 40.3 38.2 51.3 4.5
87.1 3.6 47.3 39.8 80.0 0.4 41.3 37.9 53.4 4.0
83.5 -4.2 45.4 38.1 76.6 -4.2 39.1 35.9 54.3 1.7
85.1 1.9 45.1 40.0 76.6 0.0 39.4 35.5 55.3 1.9
88.7 4.2 46.5 42.2 77.9 1.8 40.7 35.8 57.1 3.3
91.4 3.1 47.7 43.7 78.9 1.3 41.6 35.9 57.7 0.9
92.9 1.6 48.3 44.6 79.4 0.6 41.8 35.7 57.5 -0.4
97.9 5.4 50.6 47.3 82.6 4.0 43.6 36.8 59.1 2.9
103.0 5.2 53.3 49.7 85.7 3.7 45.2 37.6 60.9 3.0
108.7 5.5 56.1 52.5 89.0 3.9 47.0 38.5 62.7 3.0
114.8 5.6 59.0 55.8 92.4 3.9 48.9 39.4 64.6 3.1
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 880.9 899.0 902.8 882.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.1 0.4 -2.3 Manufacturing 43.1 42.8 40.8 38.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 -0.6 -4.6 -5.2 Nonmanufacturing 837.8 856.2 862.0 843.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.2 0.7 -2.2 Construction & Mining 74.1 71.4 67.6 56.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 -3.7 -5.3 -15.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 148.9 153.6 153.1 146.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 3.1 -0.3 -4.2 Wholesale Trade 26.9 28.4 27.9 26.5 Retail Trade 98.6 100.7 99.8 95.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 23.4 24.5 25.4 25.1 Information 19.9 20.0 20.1 19.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 0.5 0.3 -4.1 Financial Activities 63.2 64.3 61.5 57.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 1.9 -4.4 -7.1 Prof & Business Services 108.6 112.5 112.0 110.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 3.7 -0.4 -1.8 Educ & Health Services 88.5 92.4 97.1 99.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.4 5.1 2.7 Leisure & Hospitality 82.1 85.3 86.6 85.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.9 1.5 -0.9 Other Services 28.5 28.3 28.9 29.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -0.6 2.3 2.3 Federal Government 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 -1.3 -1.9 1.0 State & Local Government 211.3 215.8 222.7 225.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 2.1 3.2 1.4
831.4 -5.8 34.4 -11.1 797.0 -5.5 44.0 -22.6 134.9 -8.0 24.1 87.6 23.2 18.3 -4.8 52.9 -7.5 101.1 -8.1 99.8 0.1 81.9 -4.6 28.8 -2.6 13.3 6.2 222.0 -1.7
809.9 -2.6 32.8 -4.7 777.1 -2.5 38.8 -11.5 132.5 -1.7 22.8 88.0 21.7 17.2 -6.0 48.3 -8.7 102.2 1.1 99.4 -0.3 80.2 -2.0 28.1 -2.4 14.6 10.6 215.6 -2.9
808.7 -0.1 33.2 1.3 775.5 -0.2 37.3 -3.8 134.1 1.2 23.6 89.4 21.1 16.3 -5.1 46.6 -3.4 104.2 2.0 102.6 3.2 81.7 1.8 28.0 -0.5 14.0 -4.1 210.6 -2.3
822.7 1.7 34.0 2.2 788.7 1.7 37.7 1.0 138.8 3.5 25.3 91.6 21.9 15.3 -6.1 47.7 2.2 110.7 6.2 105.5 2.8 83.4 2.0 28.3 0.9 13.7 -1.9 207.8 -1.4
835.9 1.6 35.3 4.0 800.6 1.5 39.0 3.6 142.8 2.9 25.8 94.1 22.9 14.7 -3.9 48.2 1.1 115.5 4.4 108.0 2.4 84.0 0.8 27.0 -4.5 13.6 -0.9 207.7 0.0
851.7 1.9 35.9 1.6 815.9 1.9 42.4 8.8 144.0 0.8 26.3 94.3 23.5 14.8 0.7 48.8 1.3 120.3 4.1 110.1 2.0 84.5 0.5 27.3 1.1 13.6 -0.1 209.9 1.1
871.1 2.3 36.5 1.8 834.6 2.3 47.8 12.7 146.2 1.5 26.9 95.0 24.3 15.0 1.3 49.4 1.1 125.8 4.6 112.4 2.1 84.6 0.1 27.3 0.2 13.5 -1.0 212.6 1.3
891.3 2.3 37.1 1.6 854.2 2.4 53.4 11.7 148.6 1.7 27.6 95.9 25.1 15.6 3.6 49.2 -0.4 131.3 4.4 115.5 2.8 84.6 0.1 27.4 0.1 13.2 -2.0 215.4 1.3
908.7 2.0 37.5 1.1 871.2 2.0 56.4 5.6 151.1 1.6 28.3 96.8 26.0 15.9 2.3 48.9 -0.6 136.1 3.6 118.8 2.9 84.9 0.3 27.6 0.7 13.0 -1.2 218.6 1.5
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
46
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
2037.5 2061.0 2085.6 2111.2 2135.5 2157.8 2178.9 2199.0 2221.3 2247.0 2276.6 2310.9 2346.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1013.9 1025.5 1037.8 1047.1 1051.7 1049.0 1039.7 1038.4 1041.5 1056.4 1072.7 1090.1 1107.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.1 0.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 4.9 4.7 5.3 7.1 11.1 12.5 11.9 10.5 9.4 8.9 8.1 7.4 7.0 20024 11773 8122 5534 2930 2563 2815 3444 5445 9325 13308 14763 14918 16647 9453 7054 4299 2728 2248 2068 2943 4527 6995 10294 11573 11550 3377 2321 1067 1235 202 315 747 501 918 2329 3015 3190 3368
San Francisco MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK After a 4.0 percent increase in employment in 2012 for the San Francisco MSA, employment will only increase 2.6 percent in 2013. The first quarter of 2013 brought a 3.4 percent increase in employment; each quarter thereafter for 2013 will increase by 2.7 percent, 2.4 percent, and 1.9 percent. Construction & Mining will be the leading sector for job growth this year with a 6.3 percent increase from 2012. All other sectors will increase as well with the exception of the Federal Government which will be losing jobs. Real personal income will increase to $124.1 Billion in 2013, a 2.9 percent increase from last year’s $120.7 Billion. There will be
a 4.2 percent jump in real personal income in 2014. This increase will continue throughout the forecast. The population in San Francisco will increase 1.1 percent from 2012. Each year the increase population rate will decline slightly and by 2017 the rate will increase by only 0.3 percent. After a 2.2 percent increase in labor force in 2012, the labor force will only increase by 1.5 percent in 2013. As employment continues to grow in San Francisco, the unemployment continues to decline. In 2013 there will be a drop in unemployment to 5.8 percent. Unemployment will continue to gradually decrease throughout the forecast until it eventually reaches 3.7 percent in 2017.
San Francisco Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)
San Francisco Payroll Employment (Thousands)
20%
1150
15%
1100
10%
1050
5%
1000
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
950
900
-5%
850 -10%
800 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-15%
San Francisco and California Unemployment Rates (percent) 13%
200 Unemployment Rate (%)
11%
San Francisco Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100)
180
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
160 140 9%
120 100 7%
80 5%
60 40
3%
20 0 Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
1% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
47
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO
Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 137.1 138.2 140.2 143.6 142.4 144.1 146.0 148.3 150.7 152.4 154.3 156.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.2 5.1 7.4 3.9 4.3 4.2 3.3 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.3 Wages and Salaries 85.7 86.0 87.6 89.2 90.1 91.1 92.2 93.5 94.9 96.1 97.2 98.3 Nonwage Income 51.4 52.2 52.6 54.4 52.3 53.0 53.8 54.8 55.8 56.4 57.1 57.8 Real Personal Income (2005$) 118.9 119.7 120.9 123.4 122.1 123.5 124.7 126.3 127.8 128.8 129.9 131.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.5 3.6 5.7 2.7 3.2 3.2 2.4 4.7 4.3 4.2 3.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 75.5 75.9 76.7 78.4 77.5 78.3 79.1 80.1 81.2 82.0 82.8 83.6 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 65.5 65.7 66.2 67.3 66.4 67.0 67.6 68.2 68.9 69.3 69.7 70.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 86.8 86.2 87.0 87.8 88.3 88.8 89.5 90.3 91.1 91.9 92.5 93.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 1.5 2.0 3.4 1.7 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 983.2 994.3 1003.1 1012.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 Manufacturing 35.4 35.7 35.9 36.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -2.3 -0.5 1.2 Nonmanufacturing 947.8 958.7 967.2 976.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.4 Construction & Mining 34.3 35.1 36.1 36.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 6.2 6.5 8.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 150.2 151.5 153.0 154.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2.8 3.6 4.0 Wholesale Trade 25.5 26.2 26.2 26.6 Retail Trade 88.2 88.4 89.2 89.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.1 Information 44.8 45.6 46.2 46.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.9 9.7 8.8 7.7 Financial Activities 77.8 78.3 78.6 79.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.9 Prof & Business Services 221.7 228.1 230.4 233.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.4 10.0 8.4 7.8 Educ & Health Services 111.9 113.0 114.6 114.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 3.0 4.0 2.5 Leisure & Hospitality 131.5 132.3 133.6 136.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.0 4.3 5.0 Other Services 39.8 40.3 40.6 40.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.6 4.0 3.4 Federal Government 18.9 18.8 18.5 18.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 -2.1 -3.3 -2.0 State & Local Government 117.0 115.7 115.5 116.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -1.7 -0.9 -0.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
48
1815.6 1.2 989.3 2.1 7.5 1648 287 1361
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
1821.2 1.2 997.6 2.4 7.3 1530 420 1110
1826.9 1.2 1004.0 2.4 6.9 6038 566 5472
1832.6 1.3 1007.6 2.0 6.6 5960 666 5294
1016.7 3.4 35.8 1.1 980.9 3.5 37.0 7.8 154.9 3.2 26.6 90.1 38.2 47.4 5.8 79.5 2.2 233.9 5.5 114.3 2.1 138.4 5.2 40.0 0.5 18.4 -2.3 117.1 0.1
1021.6 2.7 35.8 0.3 985.8 2.8 37.4 6.6 155.5 2.6 26.7 90.5 38.3 47.8 4.8 79.7 1.8 236.6 3.7 114.7 1.5 138.9 5.0 40.0 -0.6 18.0 -3.9 117.2 1.3
1026.7 2.4 35.8 -0.1 990.9 2.4 38.0 5.2 156.1 2.0 26.9 90.7 38.5 47.7 3.2 80.1 1.9 239.1 3.8 115.2 0.5 139.5 4.4 40.1 -1.4 17.9 -3.4 117.3 1.5
1032.5 1.9 35.8 -1.1 996.7 2.1 38.5 5.4 156.6 1.5 27.1 90.8 38.8 47.9 2.1 80.5 1.5 241.9 3.6 115.7 0.9 140.3 3.1 40.1 -1.6 17.9 -3.2 117.4 1.1
1037.7 2.1 35.9 0.3 1001.8 2.1 39.1 5.7 156.6 1.1 27.1 90.5 39.0 48.2 1.7 80.8 1.7 244.6 4.6 116.2 1.7 140.4 1.5 40.2 0.4 18.0 -2.6 117.6 0.4
1042.2 2.0 36.0 0.5 1006.3 2.1 39.8 6.6 157.0 1.0 27.2 90.7 39.1 48.0 0.4 81.1 1.8 247.4 4.6 116.3 1.4 140.5 1.2 40.2 0.4 18.0 0.0 117.8 0.5
1046.8 2.0 36.2 1.1 1010.6 2.0 40.8 7.3 157.5 0.9 27.4 91.0 39.2 47.6 -0.2 81.5 1.7 249.9 4.6 116.4 1.1 140.5 0.7 40.2 0.4 17.9 0.0 118.2 0.8
1051.5 1.8 36.2 1.2 1015.3 1.9 41.7 8.3 158.2 1.0 27.5 91.3 39.4 47.6 -0.5 81.7 1.5 252.5 4.4 116.7 0.8 140.6 0.2 40.1 0.0 17.8 -0.8 118.4 0.9
1836.9 1.2 1010.4 2.1 6.0 3993 503 3491
1841.6 1.1 1013.1 1.6 5.9 4496 589 3908
1846.7 1.1 1015.9 1.2 5.7 4802 610 4192
1851.5 1.0 1018.3 1.1 5.5 5118 644 4474
1855.0 1.0 1020.2 1.0 5.3 5262 695 4566
1859.0 0.9 1021.7 0.9 5.1 5255 771 4485
1863.3 0.9 1023.3 0.7 5.0 5003 820 4183
1867.3 0.9 1024.5 0.6 4.8 4817 869 3948
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO
Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 158.1 159.9 161.7 163.5 165.8 167.6 169.4 171.0 173.3 175.6 177.7 179.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 Wages and Salaries 99.6 100.8 102.1 103.4 104.6 105.8 106.9 108.0 109.2 110.4 111.5 112.7 Nonwage Income 58.6 59.1 59.6 60.2 61.2 61.8 62.5 63.1 64.2 65.2 66.2 67.2 Real Personal Income (2005$) 132.2 133.3 134.3 135.2 136.7 137.5 138.4 139.1 140.5 141.7 142.8 144.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 84.6 85.4 86.2 87.0 88.1 89.0 89.8 90.5 91.8 92.9 93.9 94.9 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 70.7 71.1 71.6 71.9 72.6 73.0 73.4 73.7 74.4 75.0 75.4 76.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 94.0 94.7 95.4 96.1 96.9 97.7 98.4 99.1 100.0 100.8 101.7 102.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1056.0 1061.1 1066.4 1071.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 Manufacturing 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.2 Nonmanufacturing 1019.8 1024.9 1030.2 1035.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 Construction & Mining 42.7 44.0 45.4 46.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.2 10.5 11.4 12.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 158.5 158.9 159.5 160.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 Wholesale Trade 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 Retail Trade 91.2 91.4 91.6 91.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 Information 47.6 47.9 48.1 48.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -0.2 0.9 1.4 Financial Activities 81.9 82.0 81.9 81.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 Prof & Business Services 255.2 258.1 261.0 263.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 Educ & Health Services 116.9 117.1 117.4 117.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 140.6 140.6 140.6 140.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 Other Services 40.1 39.9 39.8 39.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 Federal Government 17.8 17.6 17.5 17.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 State & Local Government 118.6 118.8 119.0 119.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
1870.1 0.8 1025.9 0.6 4.7 4731 929 3802
1873.1 0.8 1027.4 0.6 4.5 4684 1000 3684
1876.5 0.7 1028.9 0.6 4.4 4782 1053 3729
1879.8 0.7 1030.4 0.6 4.3 4839 1042 3797
1075.6 1.9 36.3 0.4 1039.3 1.9 48.1 12.6 160.2 1.1 28.2 91.7 40.3 48.7 2.2 81.5 -0.5 265.8 4.1 118.2 1.1 140.4 -0.1 39.6 -1.1 17.2 -3.1 119.6 0.8
1079.1 1.7 36.4 0.4 1042.7 1.7 49.1 11.6 160.5 1.0 28.3 91.8 40.4 49.0 2.3 81.1 -1.0 267.7 3.7 118.6 1.3 140.2 -0.2 39.6 -1.0 17.1 -3.0 119.8 0.9
1082.0 1.5 36.4 0.4 1045.7 1.5 50.0 10.1 160.9 0.9 28.5 91.9 40.6 49.2 2.4 80.8 -1.4 269.1 3.1 119.0 1.4 140.1 -0.3 39.5 -0.9 17.0 -2.9 120.1 0.9
1085.2 1.3 36.4 0.3 1048.9 1.3 50.8 8.5 161.3 0.8 28.6 92.0 40.7 49.3 2.1 80.5 -1.5 270.6 2.7 119.4 1.5 140.2 -0.3 39.4 -0.7 16.9 -2.8 120.4 0.9
1087.7 1.1 36.4 0.1 1051.3 1.2 51.4 6.9 161.2 0.7 28.6 91.8 40.9 49.5 1.5 80.2 -1.6 272.3 2.4 119.7 1.3 140.2 -0.2 39.4 -0.7 16.8 -2.2 120.6 0.9
1090.8 1.1 36.4 0.0 1054.4 1.1 51.9 5.6 161.5 0.7 28.7 91.8 41.0 49.6 1.2 79.8 -1.6 273.9 2.3 120.1 1.3 140.2 -0.1 39.3 -0.6 16.7 -2.1 121.4 1.3
1093.0 1.0 36.3 -0.1 1056.7 1.1 52.1 4.3 161.9 0.6 28.8 91.9 41.2 49.7 0.9 79.6 -1.5 275.4 2.3 120.5 1.3 140.2 0.0 39.3 -0.5 16.7 -2.1 121.4 1.1
1095.4 0.9 36.3 -0.3 1059.1 1.0 52.3 3.0 162.1 0.5 28.9 91.9 41.3 49.7 0.7 79.2 -1.6 277.1 2.4 121.0 1.4 140.2 0.0 39.2 -0.5 16.6 -2.0 121.6 1.0
1881.7 0.6 1031.8 0.6 4.1 4833 993 3839
1883.9 0.6 1033.2 0.6 4.1 4868 977 3890
1886.5 0.5 1034.4 0.5 4.0 4870 973 3896
1889.0 0.5 1035.6 0.5 3.9 4880 942 3938
1888.2 0.4 1036.7 0.5 3.8 4933 895 4038
1890.5 0.3 1037.8 0.4 3.8 4964 858 4107
1893.1 0.3 1038.8 0.4 3.7 4956 828 4128
1895.6 0.3 1039.8 0.4 3.7 5006.1 805.4 4200.7
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
49
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO
Annual Outlook for San Francisco May 2013 Forecast 2005 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 112.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.6 Wages and Salaries 66.7 Nonwage Income 45.9 Real Personal Income (2005$) 112.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 66.3 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 66.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 70.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
123.4 9.6 71.3 52.1 120.1 6.7 72.3 70.4 73.4 4.8
129.5 4.9 77.5 52.0 122.7 2.2 75.2 71.3 78.1 6.4
130.9 1.1 78.8 52.1 120.2 -2.1 75.0 68.8 78.8 0.9
120.2 -8.2 75.7 44.5 110.3 -8.2 68.0 62.4 79.8 1.3
124.7 3.7 76.3 48.4 112.2 1.8 70.0 63.0 81.2 1.7
132.9 6.6 81.9 51.0 116.8 4.1 73.8 64.8 85.0 4.7
139.8 5.2 87.1 52.6 120.7 3.3 76.6 66.2 87.0 2.3
145.2 3.9 91.7 53.5 124.1 2.9 78.7 67.3 89.2 2.6
153.4 5.6 96.6 56.8 129.4 4.2 82.4 69.5 92.2 3.3
160.8 4.9 101.5 59.4 133.8 3.4 85.8 71.3 95.1 3.1
168.5 4.7 106.3 62.2 137.9 3.1 89.4 73.2 98.0 3.1
176.6 4.8 110.9 65.7 142.2 3.1 93.4 75.2 101.3 3.3
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 947.9 967.5 988.8 996.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 2.1 2.2 0.8 Manufacturing 42.6 43.5 43.5 42.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 2.2 0.0 -3.1 Nonmanufacturing 905.3 924.0 945.3 954.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 2.1 2.3 1.0 Construction & Mining 41.5 43.4 45.6 44.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 4.4 5.3 -2.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 163.3 162.4 162.6 160.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -0.6 0.1 -1.2 Wholesale Trade 26.1 26.7 27.1 26.7 Retail Trade 93.7 93.5 94.9 94.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 43.5 42.1 40.6 39.8 Information 40.8 39.0 39.4 40.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.1 -4.5 1.2 3.4 Financial Activities 87.8 88.7 88.8 86.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 1.1 0.2 -2.3 Prof & Business Services 185.1 194.9 203.8 210.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 5.3 4.5 3.1 Educ & Health Services 100.8 103.1 105.2 107.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 2.3 2.0 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 116.1 119.9 124.2 126.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 3.3 3.6 2.0 Other Services 36.9 37.3 38.6 39.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 1.1 3.5 2.0 Federal Government 20.4 19.9 19.3 19.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 -2.6 -2.7 -0.5 State & Local Government 112.6 115.5 117.6 119.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 2.6 1.9 1.2
945.1 -5.2 38.1 -9.6 907.0 -5.0 35.3 -20.7 149.9 -6.6 24.5 87.7 37.8 39.6 -2.8 79.6 -8.3 198.3 -5.6 108.6 1.2 122.1 -3.6 38.0 -3.5 18.9 -1.8 116.7 -2.0
935.9 -0.9 37.0 -2.9 899.0 -0.9 32.6 -7.4 147.0 -1.9 23.9 86.8 36.4 39.0 -1.4 77.1 -3.1 197.5 -0.4 109.0 0.3 122.7 0.5 37.8 -0.5 20.2 6.8 116.1 -0.5
960.0 2.6 36.3 -1.7 923.6 2.7 33.4 2.4 147.7 0.5 24.6 87.2 36.0 42.1 7.8 76.9 -0.3 210.2 6.5 110.6 1.5 127.6 4.0 38.8 2.8 19.1 -5.2 117.2 1.0
998.4 1024.4 1044.6 1063.7 1080.5 1091.7 4.0 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.0 35.8 35.8 36.1 36.2 36.4 36.3 -1.5 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 -0.1 962.6 988.6 1008.5 1027.5 1044.1 1055.4 4.2 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.1 35.5 37.7 40.3 44.7 49.5 51.9 6.4 6.3 7.0 10.9 10.7 4.9 152.2 155.8 157.4 159.2 160.7 161.7 3.1 2.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.6 26.1 26.8 27.3 27.9 28.4 28.8 88.9 90.5 90.9 91.5 91.8 91.8 37.3 38.4 39.2 39.9 40.5 41.1 45.9 47.7 47.9 48.0 49.1 49.6 9.0 4.0 0.4 0.2 2.3 1.1 78.5 79.9 81.3 81.9 81.0 79.7 2.2 1.8 1.7 0.7 -1.1 -1.6 228.4 237.9 248.6 259.5 268.3 274.7 8.7 4.1 4.5 4.4 3.4 2.4 113.6 115.0 116.4 117.3 118.8 120.3 2.7 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.3 133.4 139.3 140.5 140.6 140.2 140.2 4.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.0 40.4 40.1 40.2 39.9 39.5 39.3 4.0 -0.8 0.3 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 18.7 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.1 16.7 -2.2 -3.2 -0.8 -1.9 -2.9 -2.1 116.1 117.2 118.0 118.9 120.0 121.3 -1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
50
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
1698.3 1705.9 1722.4 1746.1 1767.1 1781.9 1801.8 1824.1 1844.2 1861.1 1874.9 1885.3 1891.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 904.6 912.6 935.5 963.0 965.5 964.7 978.0 999.6 1014.4 1022.4 1028.1 1033.8 1038.2 -0.8 0.9 2.5 2.9 0.3 -0.1 1.4 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 4.6 3.9 4.0 5.0 8.5 9.0 8.2 7.1 5.8 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.7 3411 3641 3156 2802 927 981 2779 3794 4602 5084 4759 4863 4965 1023 946 981 634 404 378 401 485 586 789 1006 972 846 2388 2695 2175 2167 523 603 2378 3309 4016 4295 3753 3891 4118
San Jose MS A SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Employment in the San Jose MSA continues to increase in 2013 with a 2.5 percent change from 2012. This increase is not as substantial as 2012’s 3.4 percent increase but it is higher than the projected increase of 2.1 in 2014. The leading sector in employment for 2013 is Construction & Mining, followed by Professional & Business Services and the Information sector with employment growths of 9.6 percent, 5.2 percent, and 5.0 percent. The remaining sectors all increase in employment with the exception of the Federal Government and the State & Local Government. Real personal income is expected to increase 4.2 percent in 2013 to $109.9 Billion from $105.5 Billion in 2012. There will be
a continued increase that averages 3.7 percent for the remainder of the forecast. The increase in population for 2013 remains the same as last year’s 1.4 percent. This continues to increase through 2017 with rates of 1.3 percent, 1.2 percent, 1.1 percent, and 0.6 percent. Labor force also continues to increase at 1.5 percent for 2013. This increase remains steady through 2016 and then drops to a 0.6 percent increase in 2017. Although there is a decrease in unemployment rate, it still remains a high rate of 7.3 percent for 2013. However unemployment will gradually decline each year with rates of 6.6 percent, 5.6 percent, 4.9 percent, and 4.5 percent.
San Jose Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)
San Jose Payroll Employment (Thousands)
35%
1100
25%
1050
15%
1000
950
5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
900
-5%
850 -15%
800 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-25%
San Jose and California Unemployment Rates (percent) 13%
200 Unemployment Rate (%)
11%
San Jose Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100)
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
180 160 140
9%
120 100 7%
80 60 5%
40 3%
20 0 Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
1% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
51
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE
Quarterly Outlook for San Jose May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 119.0 120.5 122.9 126.3 126.3 127.7 129.1 131.0 132.8 134.4 136.1 137.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.1 6.4 7.2 9.4 6.1 6.0 5.1 3.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.1 Wages and Salaries 93.0 94.1 96.3 98.6 100.3 101.3 102.5 103.8 105.1 106.5 107.9 109.1 Nonwage Income 26.0 26.3 26.5 27.6 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.5 Real Personal Income (2005$) 103.2 104.3 106.0 108.5 108.3 109.4 110.3 111.5 112.7 113.5 114.6 115.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 4.7 5.7 7.7 4.9 4.9 4.1 2.9 4.1 3.8 3.9 3.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 63.1 63.6 64.6 66.2 66.0 66.5 67.0 67.7 68.5 69.1 69.8 70.3 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 54.7 55.1 55.7 56.8 56.6 57.0 57.2 57.7 58.1 58.4 58.7 59.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 103.7 104.0 105.5 107.0 108.5 109.1 109.8 110.6 111.4 112.3 113.1 113.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.2 4.4 5.7 4.6 4.9 4.0 3.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 893.3 901.8 909.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 3.3 3.6 Manufacturing 157.3 157.5 157.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -0.4 0.1 Nonmanufacturing 736.0 744.3 751.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 4.1 4.4 Construction & Mining 33.6 34.9 35.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 12.0 9.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 130.0 131.1 132.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.0 3.5 Wholesale Trade 34.1 34.5 35.3 Retail Trade 83.4 83.9 83.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.5 12.6 13.1 Information 49.7 50.2 49.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 4.3 1.4 Financial Activities 33.4 33.7 34.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 5.0 4.5 Prof & Business Services 175.1 179.7 182.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 7.4 7.4 Educ & Health Services 117.4 117.1 119.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2.0 3.8 Leisure & Hospitality 80.5 81.4 82.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.1 6.6 5.8 Other Services 24.4 24.7 25.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 1.3 1.4 Federal Government 9.8 9.8 9.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 -3.9 -3.0 State & Local Government 82.1 81.8 80.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -2.1 0.8 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
52
1887.8 1.4 934.6 2.3 8.9 4127 1023 3104
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
1894.4 1.4 942.7 2.6 8.7 5181 1691 3490
1901.1 1.4 943.8 1.9 8.4 5612 1851 3762
918.5 3.8 157.9 0.8 760.6 4.5 36.6 12.6 132.9 2.6 35.7 83.9 13.4 51.4 4.6 33.8 2.0 185.7 8.8 120.6 3.4 83.5 5.3 24.2 -2.1 9.8 -1.4 82.1 -0.2
921.1 3.1 157.3 0.0 763.8 3.8 37.6 11.7 133.9 3.0 35.4 85.3 13.2 52.2 5.0 33.8 1.3 187.2 6.9 118.9 1.3 84.8 5.4 23.9 -1.8 9.7 -1.0 81.6 -0.5
925.6 2.6 157.4 -0.1 768.2 3.2 38.0 9.0 134.6 2.7 35.7 85.7 13.3 52.9 5.2 33.9 0.4 189.3 5.4 119.4 2.0 85.1 4.5 24.0 -3.0 9.5 -2.5 81.5 -0.3
930.2 2.3 158.3 0.2 771.9 2.7 38.7 10.1 135.2 2.1 35.9 85.9 13.4 52.9 6.4 34.0 -0.1 191.0 4.6 119.8 0.3 85.4 3.4 24.0 -4.7 9.4 -3.6 81.5 0.7
935.3 1.8 158.6 0.4 776.8 2.1 39.3 7.5 135.6 2.0 36.2 85.9 13.5 53.1 3.4 34.1 1.1 193.3 4.1 120.4 -0.2 85.9 3.0 24.0 -0.5 9.5 -3.8 81.4 -0.9
940.4 2.1 159.3 1.3 781.1 2.3 40.1 6.6 135.6 1.3 36.5 85.6 13.6 53.6 2.6 34.2 1.2 195.6 4.5 120.9 1.6 86.1 1.5 24.1 0.8 9.5 -2.4 81.5 -0.2
944.9 2.1 159.8 1.5 785.2 2.2 40.9 7.7 136.0 1.0 36.7 85.7 13.6 53.6 1.3 34.3 1.3 198.0 4.6 121.0 1.4 86.2 1.3 24.2 0.9 9.5 0.2 81.5 -0.1
950.7 2.2 161.2 1.9 789.5 2.3 42.0 8.6 136.5 1.0 36.9 85.9 13.7 53.3 0.9 34.4 1.3 200.3 4.8 121.2 1.2 86.3 1.0 24.2 1.0 9.5 0.3 81.7 0.3
955.9 2.2 161.5 1.9 794.4 2.3 43.1 9.5 137.2 1.2 37.2 86.2 13.8 53.4 0.6 34.5 1.2 202.7 4.8 121.7 1.0 86.4 0.5 24.2 0.7 9.4 -0.5 81.8 0.4
1907.8 1.4 948.9 1.9 8.0 5440 1565 3875
1914.2 1.4 950.6 1.7 7.5 5658 1741 3917
1920.5 1.4 954.9 1.3 7.4 6085 2108 3976
1926.9 1.4 959.0 1.6 7.3 6151 2237 3914
1933.3 1.3 962.4 1.4 7.1 6395 2387 4007
1939.5 1.3 966.1 1.6 6.9 6641 2634 4007
1945.5 1.3 969.4 1.5 6.8 6938 2991 3947
1951.4 1.3 973.3 1.5 6.5 7039 3238 3802
1957.5 1.3 976.7 1.5 6.2 7197 3468 3729
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE
Quarterly Outlook for San Jose May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 139.5 141.3 143.1 144.8 147.0 148.8 150.6 152.5 154.7 156.7 158.7 160.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 Wages and Salaries 110.5 112.0 113.5 114.9 116.5 117.9 119.4 120.9 122.5 123.9 125.3 126.8 Nonwage Income 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.5 30.8 31.2 31.6 32.2 32.8 33.4 33.9 Real Personal Income (2005$) 116.6 117.7 118.8 119.7 121.1 122.1 123.0 124.0 125.4 126.5 127.6 128.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 71.0 71.8 72.5 73.1 74.0 74.7 75.4 76.2 77.1 77.9 78.7 79.5 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 59.4 59.8 60.2 60.4 61.0 61.3 61.6 62.0 62.5 62.9 63.2 63.6 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 114.6 115.5 116.3 117.1 118.0 118.8 119.7 120.6 121.6 122.5 123.5 124.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 960.8 966.5 972.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.3 2.3 Manufacturing 161.8 162.1 162.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.5 0.8 Nonmanufacturing 799.0 804.4 810.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.5 2.6 Construction & Mining 44.2 45.7 47.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.4 11.6 12.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 137.5 138.1 138.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.6 1.6 Wholesale Trade 37.5 37.8 38.1 Retail Trade 86.1 86.3 86.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.9 14.0 14.2 Information 53.5 53.9 54.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 0.7 1.8 Financial Activities 34.6 34.6 34.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.8 0.4 Prof & Business Services 205.2 207.8 210.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 5.0 5.1 Educ & Health Services 122.0 122.5 123.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.3 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 86.5 86.5 86.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.3 0.3 Other Services 24.2 24.2 24.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.0 -0.4 Federal Government 9.4 9.4 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -1.9 -1.8 State & Local Government 81.8 81.8 81.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.4 0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
1963.3 1.2 980.1 1.5 6.0 7459 3724 3736
1969.0 1.2 983.5 1.5 5.8 7730 4010 3721
1974.6 1.2 986.7 1.4 5.5 8058 4209 3849
978.3 2.3 163.1 0.9 815.2 2.6 48.9 13.4 139.2 1.5 38.4 86.6 14.2 54.8 2.6 34.5 0.0 212.4 4.8 123.5 1.5 86.6 0.2 24.1 -0.5 9.2 -1.7 81.9 0.2
984.1 2.4 163.6 1.1 820.5 2.7 50.3 13.6 139.7 1.5 38.7 86.6 14.4 55.2 3.2 34.4 -0.5 214.8 4.7 124.3 1.9 86.5 0.0 24.1 -0.5 9.2 -2.7 82.1 0.4
989.3 2.4 164.0 1.2 825.3 2.6 51.4 12.5 140.1 1.5 38.9 86.8 14.4 55.7 3.2 34.3 -0.8 216.9 4.4 125.1 2.1 86.4 -0.1 24.1 -0.4 9.1 -2.6 82.2 0.5
994.1 2.2 164.4 1.2 829.7 2.4 52.4 10.9 140.7 1.5 39.2 87.0 14.6 56.1 3.4 34.2 -1.1 218.8 3.9 125.7 2.2 86.3 -0.2 24.1 -0.2 9.1 -2.5 82.4 0.6
999.3 2.2 164.8 1.1 834.5 2.4 53.4 9.2 141.2 1.4 39.5 87.1 14.6 56.5 3.1 34.1 -1.2 221.0 4.0 126.4 2.3 86.3 -0.3 24.1 -0.1 9.0 -2.4 82.6 0.7
1003.6 2.0 165.0 0.9 838.6 2.2 54.1 7.7 141.6 1.4 39.7 87.2 14.7 56.8 2.8 34.0 -1.3 223.1 3.9 127.0 2.1 86.3 -0.2 24.1 0.0 9.0 -1.8 82.7 0.7
1007.8 1.9 165.2 0.7 842.6 2.1 54.6 6.2 141.9 1.3 39.9 87.2 14.8 57.1 2.6 33.9 -1.3 225.1 3.8 127.7 2.1 86.2 -0.1 24.1 0.1 9.0 -1.7 82.9 0.8
1011.7 1.8 165.4 0.6 846.3 2.0 54.9 4.9 142.3 1.2 40.1 87.3 14.9 57.4 2.3 33.8 -1.2 227.1 3.8 128.4 2.2 86.2 -0.1 24.1 0.2 8.9 -1.7 83.1 0.8
1015.8 1.6 165.6 0.4 850.2 1.9 55.2 3.4 142.7 1.0 40.3 87.3 15.0 57.7 2.1 33.7 -1.3 229.2 3.7 129.3 2.3 86.3 0.0 24.1 0.3 8.9 -1.7 83.3 0.9
1980.4 1.2 989.8 1.3 5.3 8103 4170 3933
1985.9 1.2 992.3 1.2 5.0 8010.8 4072.4 3938.4
1991.3 1.1 994.9 1.2 4.9 8010.4 4034.2 3976.2
1996.5 1.1 997.2 1.1 4.8 7932.4 3995.5 3937.0
2002.0 1.1 999.0 0.9 4.7 7871.1 3942.0 3929.2
2007.2 1.1 1000.0 0.8 4.6 7826.4 3830.3 3996.1
2012.0 1.0 1001.2 0.6 4.6 7830.7 3751.8 4078.9
2016.9 1.0 1002.3 0.5 4.5 7761.3 3677.1 4084.2
2022.0 1.0 1003.4 0.4 4.4 7801.4 3643.1 4158.3
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
53
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE
Annual Outlook for San Jose May 2013 Forecast 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
89.6 6.5 66.4 23.2 89.6 3.4 51.7 51.7 76.1 3.4
98.0 9.3 72.5 25.5 95.4 6.4 56.0 54.5 81.0 6.5
105.5 7.7 79.4 26.1 100.0 4.9 59.6 56.5 86.9 7.3
106.3 0.8 78.3 28.0 97.6 -2.4 59.1 54.3 85.2 -1.9
97.3 -8.4 73.1 24.2 89.3 -8.5 53.4 49.0 85.0 -0.2
104.5 7.4 80.8 23.7 94.1 5.4 56.6 50.9 94.1 10.7
113.8 9.0 88.2 25.6 100.0 6.4 60.8 53.5 100.3 6.7
122.2 7.3 95.5 26.6 105.5 5.4 64.4 55.6 105.1 4.7
128.5 5.2 102.0 26.6 109.9 4.2 66.8 57.1 109.5 4.2
135.2 5.2 107.2 28.1 114.1 3.8 69.4 58.6 112.6 2.9
142.2 5.1 112.7 29.4 118.2 3.6 72.1 60.0 115.9 2.9
149.7 5.3 118.7 31.0 122.6 3.7 75.1 61.5 119.3 2.9
157.7 5.4 124.6 33.1 127.0 3.6 78.3 63.1 123.0 3.1
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 869.8 891.1 911.0 915.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 2.4 2.2 0.4 Manufacturing 164.9 163.7 166.6 168.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -0.7 1.8 0.8 Nonmanufacturing 704.9 727.4 744.4 747.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 3.2 2.3 0.4 Construction & Mining 44.7 47.1 47.5 44.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 5.3 1.0 -6.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 132.8 137.0 139.7 137.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 3.2 2.0 -1.4 Wholesale Trade 35.8 38.3 39.8 39.8 Retail Trade 83.9 85.8 86.4 84.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.0 12.9 13.5 13.5 Information 35.2 37.4 39.6 42.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.0 6.3 5.7 6.7 Financial Activities 36.1 36.9 36.9 34.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.2 -0.1 -7.1 Prof & Business Services 165.8 171.9 178.2 178.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 3.7 3.7 0.4 Educ & Health Services 97.1 100.6 103.5 108.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 3.7 2.8 4.6 Leisure & Hospitality 72.8 75.1 76.8 78.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.3 2.2 1.7 Other Services 24.6 24.8 25.1 25.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 Federal Government 11.3 11.1 11.0 11.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -2.3 -0.5 -0.6 State & Local Government 84.6 85.4 86.2 86.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 1.0 0.9 0.8
856.6 -6.4 155.8 -7.2 700.8 -6.2 34.7 -22.1 126.5 -8.1 35.6 78.8 12.1 41.6 -1.4 31.5 -8.0 161.4 -9.8 109.3 1.0 74.9 -4.1 24.5 -3.5 10.8 -1.5 85.6 -1.4
855.1 -0.1 153.6 -1.4 701.6 0.1 32.4 -6.2 125.8 -0.5 34.9 78.8 12.0 43.9 5.5 31.0 -1.4 162.1 0.5 112.8 3.2 74.9 0.0 24.3 -0.8 10.7 -0.6 83.7 -2.3
876.3 2.5 157.4 2.5 718.9 2.5 31.8 -1.8 127.7 1.6 33.9 81.8 12.1 48.4 10.2 32.4 4.4 168.6 4.0 115.5 2.4 77.4 3.3 24.6 1.2 10.1 -5.4 82.5 -1.4
905.8 3.4 157.7 0.2 748.2 4.1 35.1 10.3 131.6 3.0 34.9 83.8 12.9 50.3 3.9 33.7 4.1 180.8 7.2 118.6 2.7 82.0 5.9 24.6 0.1 9.8 -3.1 81.7 -0.9
928.0 2.5 157.9 0.1 770.2 2.9 38.4 9.6 134.8 2.5 35.8 85.7 13.3 52.8 5.0 33.9 0.7 190.2 5.2 119.6 0.9 85.3 4.1 24.0 -2.5 9.5 -2.7 81.5 -0.2
948.0 2.1 160.4 1.6 787.5 2.3 41.5 8.1 136.3 1.1 36.8 85.8 13.7 53.5 1.3 34.4 1.3 199.1 4.7 121.2 1.3 86.2 1.1 24.2 0.8 9.5 -0.6 81.6 0.1
969.5 2.3 162.4 1.2 807.2 2.5 46.5 12.0 138.4 1.5 37.9 86.4 14.1 54.1 1.2 34.6 0.6 209.0 4.9 122.8 1.3 86.5 0.3 24.1 -0.1 9.3 -1.6 81.9 0.3
991.7 1009.7 2.3 1.8 164.2 165.3 1.1 0.7 827.5 844.4 2.5 2.0 51.9 54.7 11.6 5.5 140.4 142.1 1.5 1.2 39.1 40.0 86.9 87.2 14.5 14.9 55.9 57.2 3.2 2.4 34.3 33.8 -0.9 -1.3 217.9 226.1 4.3 3.8 125.4 128.1 2.1 2.2 86.3 86.3 -0.2 -0.1 24.1 24.1 -0.3 0.2 9.1 8.9 -2.5 -1.7 82.3 83.0 0.6 0.8
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (2005$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (2005$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
54
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
1732.1 1748.2 1770.2 1798.0 1822.7 1846.9 1871.4 1897.7 1923.7 1948.5 1971.8 1993.9 2014.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 841.5 848.1 868.8 895.0 900.4 906.7 922.6 942.5 956.7 971.4 985.0 995.8 1001.7 -1.0 0.8 2.4 3.0 0.6 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.6 5.4 4.6 4.7 6.1 10.9 11.1 9.9 8.5 7.3 6.6 5.6 4.9 4.5 5518 5164 3976 2691 1353 2318 3163 5090 6072 6954 7838 7956 7805 2580 2211 1970 1105 708 886 1074 1532 2118 3083 4028 4011 3726 2938 2954 2006 1586 645 1431 2089 3558 3954 3871 3810 3945 4079
Santa Cruz MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK After a 1.9 increase in total non-farm employment in 2012, employment in the Santa Cruz MSA will jump 3.9 percent in the year 2013. This increase in employment began in the fourth quarter of 2012, where employment increased 5.3 percent and continued through the first quarter of 2013 at a 5.0 percent increase. Growth in employment will fall slightly in the second quarter of this year to 4.4 percent and then to 3.8 percent and 2.2 percent in the third and fourth quarters. The leading sectors in job growth for the year 2013 are professional & business services, which will increase 6.3 percent, followed by construction & mining and leisure & hospitality, which will rise 5.6 percent this year. All other sectors will also grow in employment with the exception of the federal government which will suffer a job loss of 1.7 percent.
Real personal income in Santa Cruz will only increase by 0.3 percent in 2013, a moderate decline from last year’s 2.1 percent increase. However, in 2014 real personal income will jump back up to a 2.8 percent growth and the years to follow will average a 2.0 percent increase until 2017. Population will continue to rise 0.7 percent for the third consecutive year. This increase will gradually decline every year until eventually the population growth becomes 0.4 percent in 2017. Labor force will grow 1.8 percent in 2013 and will increase at decreasing rates of 0.4 percent in 2014, 0.3 percent in 2015, 0.2 percent in 2016, and 0.2 percent in 2017. Although there is a decrease in unemployment, it still remains high rate of 9.6 percent in Santa Cruz. Unemployment will gradually decrease every year until it reaches 6.2 percent in 2017.
Santa Cruz Real Personal Income (Percent change from one year ago)
Santa Cruz Payroll Employment (Thousands)
25%
105
20%
100
15%
95
10%
90 5%
85 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
80 -5%
75 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-10%
Santa Cruz and California Unemployment Rates (Percent) 14%
200 Unemployment Rate (%)
12%
Santa Cruz Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100)
180
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
160 10%
140 120
8%
6%
100 80 60
4%
40 20
2%
0 Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
55
METRO SUMMARY - SANTA CRUZ
Quarterly Outlook for Santa Cruz May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.5 3.8 5.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.1 Wages and Salaries 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 Nonwage Income 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.1 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 Real Personal Income (2005$) 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.8 2.3 3.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 49.7 50.0 50.3 51.0 50.1 50.4 50.6 51.2 51.8 52.1 52.5 53.0 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 43.1 43.3 43.4 43.8 42.9 43.1 43.2 43.6 43.9 44.0 44.2 44.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 50.8 49.9 50.3 49.6 49.3 49.4 49.6 49.9 50.3 50.6 50.8 51.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 1.8 1.9 0.1 -3.0 -1.0 -1.3 0.7 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 86.7 87.6 88.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 0.8 2.1 Manufacturing 5.5 5.7 5.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 5.1 3.7 Nonmanufacturing 81.2 81.9 82.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 0.5 2.0 Construction & Mining 2.9 2.9 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 1.1 -1.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 16.0 16.2 16.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5 -0.2 4.0 Wholesale Trade 3.3 3.4 3.5 Retail Trade 11.2 11.4 11.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.5 1.4 1.5 Information 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.6 -11.0 -10.9 Financial Activities 3.0 3.2 3.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 2.2 2.3 Prof & Business Services 9.4 9.6 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -1.8 5.1 Educ & Health Services 13.9 13.8 13.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 -0.7 0.5 Leisure & Hospitality 11.2 11.5 11.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 4.4 3.8 Other Services 3.7 3.7 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 5.8 3.2 Federal Government 0.5 0.5 0.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.0 -0.2 State & Local Government 19.7 19.8 19.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5 0.2 -0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
56
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
266.3 0.7 152.2 1.8 11.4 235 112 123
266.8 0.7 153.8 3.6 11.3 219 208 11
267.2 0.7 154.6 1.3 10.7 130 129 1
90.4 5.3 5.5 1.9 84.9 5.5 3.0 3.2 16.8 5.6 3.5 11.8 1.5 0.8 -11.5 3.3 8.4 10.0 7.5 14.0 1.5 12.1 9.0 3.8 2.1 0.5 -0.2 20.5 6.8
91.1 5.0 5.8 6.2 85.2 5.0 3.0 3.3 16.9 5.8 3.6 11.8 1.6 0.8 -5.4 3.3 8.6 10.2 8.6 14.0 0.5 12.1 7.9 3.8 3.2 0.5 1.3 20.6 4.6
91.4 4.4 5.8 3.0 85.6 4.5 3.1 6.9 17.0 5.3 3.6 11.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 3.3 4.9 10.3 7.2 14.0 1.5 12.2 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.5 -2.0 20.7 4.2
91.8 3.8 5.8 3.1 86.0 3.9 3.2 7.5 17.1 3.0 3.6 11.9 1.6 0.8 2.0 3.3 3.2 10.4 4.9 14.0 0.9 12.3 6.7 3.8 2.1 0.5 -4.5 20.7 4.8
92.4 2.2 5.8 6.2 86.6 2.0 3.2 4.9 17.1 1.8 3.6 11.9 1.6 0.8 3.5 3.3 1.5 10.5 4.3 14.1 0.4 12.4 2.3 3.8 1.1 0.5 -1.8 20.9 1.8
92.8 1.9 5.9 0.6 87.0 2.0 3.3 7.3 17.1 0.9 3.7 11.8 1.6 0.8 2.7 3.3 1.1 10.6 3.6 14.1 1.2 12.5 3.1 3.8 1.2 0.5 -2.1 21.0 1.7
93.2 1.9 5.9 0.6 87.3 2.0 3.3 8.1 17.1 0.6 3.7 11.8 1.6 0.8 1.5 3.3 1.3 10.7 3.9 14.1 1.1 12.5 2.8 3.9 1.4 0.5 0.6 21.0 1.6
93.6 1.9 5.9 1.0 87.7 1.9 3.4 8.9 17.1 0.5 3.7 11.8 1.6 0.8 0.7 3.4 1.2 10.8 4.4 14.2 1.0 12.6 2.4 3.9 1.3 0.5 0.7 21.0 1.5
94.1 1.9 5.9 0.9 88.2 1.9 3.5 10.3 17.2 0.5 3.7 11.8 1.6 0.8 0.5 3.4 1.1 11.0 4.7 14.2 1.1 12.6 1.9 3.9 0.9 0.5 -0.2 21.2 1.5
267.7 0.7 156.6 2.7 10.2 267 86 181
268.2 0.7 156.8 3.0 9.8 201 100 101
268.7 0.7 156.9 2.1 9.7 293 128 166
269.1 0.7 157.1 1.6 9.6 350 148 202
269.5 0.7 157.3 0.4 9.4 416 176 240
269.9 0.7 157.4 0.4 9.2 472 212 259
270.3 0.6 157.5 0.4 8.9 527 260 267
270.7 0.6 157.7 0.3 8.6 581 336 246
271.1 0.6 157.7 0.3 8.3 635 417 219
METRO SUMMARY - SANTA CRUZ
Quarterly Outlook for Santa Cruz May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 Wages and Salaries 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 Nonwage Income 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 Real Personal Income (2005$) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 53.4 53.8 54.1 54.5 55.0 55.4 55.7 56.2 56.7 57.1 57.6 58.0 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 44.7 44.8 44.9 45.0 45.3 45.5 45.5 45.7 45.9 46.1 46.3 46.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 51.5 51.7 52.0 52.3 52.6 52.9 53.2 53.4 53.8 54.2 54.5 54.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 94.5 94.8 95.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.8 1.7 Manufacturing 5.9 5.9 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.8 0.1 Nonmanufacturing 88.6 88.9 89.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.8 1.9 Construction & Mining 3.6 3.7 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.1 12.0 12.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 17.2 17.2 17.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.5 0.6 Wholesale Trade 3.7 3.8 3.8 Retail Trade 11.8 11.8 11.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.6 1.7 1.7 Information 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 0.6 1.8 Financial Activities 3.4 3.4 3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 0.9 0.3 Prof & Business Services 11.1 11.2 11.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 4.8 4.8 Educ & Health Services 14.2 14.3 14.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.1 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 12.7 12.7 12.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.2 1.1 Other Services 3.9 3.8 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 Federal Government 0.5 0.5 0.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -1.8 -1.7 State & Local Government 21.3 21.3 21.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
271.4 0.6 157.9 0.3 8.0 690 502 188
271.7 0.5 158.1 0.4 7.7 762 572 190
272.1 0.5 158.2 0.3 7.4 823 628 195
95.7 1.7 5.9 0.2 89.8 1.8 4.0 13.9 17.3 0.5 3.8 11.8 1.7 0.8 2.6 3.4 -0.2 11.5 4.5 14.3 1.0 12.8 1.1 3.8 -0.5 0.5 -1.6 21.5 1.1
96.1 1.7 5.9 0.1 90.2 1.8 4.1 14.4 17.3 0.5 3.8 11.8 1.7 0.8 3.3 3.3 -0.7 11.6 4.3 14.4 1.2 12.8 1.0 3.8 -0.5 0.5 -2.5 21.5 1.1
96.4 1.6 5.9 0.2 90.4 1.7 4.3 13.9 17.3 0.5 3.8 11.8 1.7 0.9 3.4 3.3 -1.2 11.7 4.0 14.5 1.5 12.8 0.9 3.8 -0.4 0.5 -2.4 21.5 1.0
96.6 1.5 5.9 0.1 90.7 1.6 4.4 12.4 17.3 0.4 3.8 11.8 1.7 0.9 3.6 3.3 -1.5 11.7 3.5 14.5 1.6 12.8 0.9 3.8 -0.3 0.5 -2.4 21.5 0.9
97.1 1.4 5.9 0.0 91.2 1.5 4.4 10.7 17.3 0.3 3.9 11.8 1.7 0.9 3.3 3.3 -1.7 11.9 3.5 14.6 1.8 12.9 0.9 3.8 -0.1 0.5 -2.3 21.6 0.8
97.4 1.3 5.9 -0.3 91.5 1.5 4.5 9.2 17.3 0.4 3.9 11.8 1.7 0.9 3.2 3.3 -1.6 12.0 3.5 14.7 1.9 12.9 0.8 3.8 -0.1 0.5 -1.7 21.7 0.6
97.5 1.2 5.9 -0.4 91.7 1.3 4.6 7.3 17.4 0.4 3.9 11.7 1.7 0.9 2.5 3.3 -1.9 12.1 3.4 14.8 1.9 12.9 0.7 3.8 0.1 0.5 -1.7 21.6 0.5
97.8 1.2 5.9 -0.5 91.9 1.3 4.6 5.7 17.4 0.4 3.9 11.7 1.7 0.9 2.2 3.3 -1.8 12.1 3.4 14.8 2.0 12.9 0.7 3.8 0.1 0.5 -1.6 21.6 0.7
98.2 1.1 5.9 -0.6 92.3 1.2 4.6 4.5 17.4 0.3 3.9 11.7 1.7 0.9 2.0 3.2 -2.0 12.2 3.0 14.9 2.3 12.9 0.5 3.8 0.2 0.5 -1.6 21.8 0.7
272.5 0.5 158.3 0.3 7.2 837 639 198
272.8 0.5 158.3 0.3 7.0 849 647 202
273.1 0.5 158.4 0.2 6.9 842 637 205
273.4 0.5 158.5 0.2 6.7 842 636 206
273.7 0.5 158.6 0.2 6.6 841 632 209
274.0 0.5 158.7 0.2 6.4 842 629 214
274.3 0.5 158.8 0.2 6.3 827 611 217
274.6 0.4 158.9 0.2 6.1 816 599 217
274.9 0.4 159.0 0.3 6.0 815.5 595.0 220.5
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
57
METRO SUMMARY - SANTA CRUZ
Annual Outlook for Santa Cruz May 2013 Forecast 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
11.0 2.1 3.9 7.1 11.0 -0.9 43.6 43.6 41.7 2.5
12.0 9.4 4.2 7.8 11.7 6.5 47.6 46.3 44.4 6.6
12.8 7.1 4.4 8.4 12.2 4.3 50.6 48.0 45.7 2.9
12.8 0.0 4.3 8.5 11.8 -3.1 50.0 45.9 46.5 1.6
11.9 -7.6 4.1 7.7 10.9 -7.6 45.6 41.8 47.1 1.3
12.2 3.2 4.1 8.1 11.0 1.3 46.5 41.8 47.8 1.5
12.9 5.5 4.3 8.6 11.4 3.0 48.7 42.8 49.2 3.0
13.4 3.9 4.4 9.0 11.6 2.1 50.3 43.4 50.1 1.8
13.6 1.3 4.6 9.0 11.6 0.3 50.6 43.2 49.6 -1.1
14.2 4.1 4.8 9.4 11.9 2.8 52.3 44.2 50.7 2.3
14.7 3.6 5.0 9.7 12.2 2.1 53.9 44.9 51.9 2.3
15.2 3.5 5.1 10.0 12.4 1.9 55.6 45.5 53.0 2.3
15.7 3.6 5.3 10.4 12.7 2.0 57.3 46.2 54.3 2.4
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 93.5 95.1 95.8 93.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.7 0.7 -2.9 Manufacturing 6.9 6.5 6.3 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -5.6 -2.6 -7.2 Nonmanufacturing 86.6 88.6 89.4 87.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 2.3 1.0 -2.6 Construction & Mining 5.7 5.9 5.4 4.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 2.1 -8.6 -14.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.3 18.7 19.1 17.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 2.3 1.7 -6.0 Wholesale Trade 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.1 Retail Trade 13.1 13.3 13.1 12.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 Information 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.8 -12.7 -14.1 -9.8 Financial Activities 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.1 -2.4 -4.8 Prof & Business Services 9.3 10.0 10.0 10.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 8.0 -0.1 -0.2 Educ & Health Services 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 2.0 2.3 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 0.6 3.9 -1.9 Other Services 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 2.2 3.0 0.7 Federal Government 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.9 0.0 3.3 16.4 State & Local Government 20.8 21.3 21.8 21.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.4 2.5 -0.5
87.5 -5.9 5.3 -9.6 82.2 -5.6 3.3 -29.4 16.7 -6.8 3.8 11.5 1.4 1.0 -9.1 3.4 -2.8 9.4 -6.0 13.0 4.2 11.1 -2.1 3.7 -6.2 0.5 -9.7 20.2 -6.9
86.4 -1.2 5.5 2.8 80.9 -1.5 3.0 -8.5 16.4 -1.8 3.5 11.4 1.5 0.9 -7.7 3.3 -4.2 9.1 -2.8 13.4 3.4 10.9 -1.7 3.7 -1.4 0.5 0.0 19.8 -1.6
86.6 0.3 5.4 -1.1 81.2 0.4 2.9 -2.0 16.1 -1.6 3.4 11.3 1.5 0.9 0.0 3.1 -5.1 9.5 4.5 13.8 2.8 11.0 1.6 3.6 -1.3 0.5 -6.8 19.8 -0.1
88.3 1.9 5.6 3.6 82.7 1.8 2.9 1.7 16.4 1.7 3.4 11.5 1.5 0.8 -10.3 3.2 2.6 9.7 2.5 13.9 0.5 11.6 4.8 3.7 3.4 0.5 -0.1 20.0 1.1
91.7 3.9 5.8 4.6 85.9 3.8 3.1 5.6 17.0 4.0 3.6 11.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.3 4.5 10.3 6.3 14.0 0.8 12.2 5.6 3.8 2.1 0.5 -1.7 20.7 3.9
93.4 1.9 5.9 0.8 87.5 2.0 3.4 8.7 17.1 0.6 3.7 11.8 1.6 0.8 1.3 3.4 1.2 10.8 4.2 14.1 1.1 12.5 2.5 3.9 1.2 0.5 -0.2 21.1 1.6
95.1 1.8 5.9 0.4 89.2 1.8 3.8 12.5 17.2 0.6 3.8 11.8 1.7 0.8 1.2 3.4 0.6 11.3 4.7 14.3 1.0 12.7 1.3 3.8 -0.1 0.5 -1.4 21.3 1.3
96.6 1.6 5.9 0.1 90.6 1.7 4.3 12.9 17.3 0.4 3.8 11.8 1.7 0.9 3.4 3.3 -1.3 11.7 3.8 14.5 1.5 12.8 0.9 3.8 -0.3 0.5 -2.4 21.5 1.0
97.7 1.2 5.9 -0.5 91.9 1.3 4.6 6.7 17.4 0.4 3.9 11.7 1.7 0.9 2.5 3.3 -1.8 12.1 3.3 14.8 2.0 12.9 0.7 3.8 0.1 0.5 -1.7 21.7 0.6
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
260.5 1.4 147.7 1.0 11.3 158 141 17
263.5 1.1 149.9 1.5 12.6 159 125 34
265.2 0.7 150.7 0.6 12.1 131 111 20
267.0 0.7 154.3 2.4 10.9 213 134 79
268.9 0.7 157.0 1.8 9.6 315 138 177
270.5 0.6 157.6 0.4 8.8 554 306 248
271.9 0.5 158.1 0.3 7.6 778 585 193
273.3 0.5 158.5 0.2 6.8 843.5 638.2 205.4
274.5 0.4 158.8 0.2 6.2 825 608 217.0
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (2005$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (2005$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago
58
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
251.5 -0.3 143.3 -0.5 6.3 825 690 135
251.9 0.2 143.5 0.1 5.7 672 566 107
253.8 0.7 145.0 1.0 5.9 727 354 373
257.0 1.2 146.3 0.9 7.4 365 245 121
Stockton MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK The Stockton MSA will have an increase in employment of 2.6 percent in the year 2013. Each quarter in 2013 brings a slight increase in employment starting with a 1.7 percent increase in the first quarter, 2.6 in the second quarter, and 3.2 in the third quarter. The fourth quarter sees a slight decline in the percent increase of 3.0 percent. Construction & mining is the leading sector in job growth with a 7.7 percent increase, followed by professional & business services and leisure & hospitality which will experience growths of 6.5 percent and 5.3 percent. Most other sectors will also experience growth in jobs with the exception of manufacturing, financial activities, and the federal government which all suffer job losses. Real personal income increased from $19.2 billion in 2012 to
$19.6 billion in 2013, a 1.6 percent increase. In 2014 it is also expected to jump 4.2 percent to $20.4 billion. Starting 2015, real personal income will continue to grow steadily throughout the remainder of the forecast. Population in Stockton continues its steady increase of 1.1 percent in 2013. Starting 2014 population will increase by 1.4 percent each year until 2017. After a 1.5 percent increase in labor force last year, labor force will decrease by 0.4 percent in 2013. Next year and for the remainder of the forecast, labor force will increase again steadily each year. Unemployment rate continues to decrease to 13.5 percent in 2013. The following years bring decreases to 12.4 percent in 2014, 10.9 percent in 2015, 10.0 percent in 2016, and 9.6 percent in 2017.
Stockton Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)
Stockton Payroll Employment (Thousands)
10%
220
8%
210
6%
200 4%
190 2%
180 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
170 -2%
160 -4%
150 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-6%
Stockton and California Unemployment Rates (percent) 18%
200 Unemployment Rate (%)
16%
Stockton Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100)
180
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
160 14%
140 120
12%
10%
100 80 60
8%
40 20
6%
0 Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
59
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON
Quarterly Outlook for Stockton May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.7 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2.3 3.3 5.5 2.0 2.7 3.1 2.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.3 Wages and Salaries 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 Nonwage Income 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.5 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 Real Personal Income (2005$) 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.2 19.5 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 0.6 1.8 3.9 0.8 1.7 2.1 1.8 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 31.4 31.5 31.7 32.2 31.7 32.0 32.3 32.7 33.1 33.4 33.7 33.9 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 47.8 47.7 48.0 47.9 47.8 47.9 48.2 48.5 48.8 49.2 49.5 49.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 0.2 1.6 2.9 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 189.8 189.3 189.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 1.2 1.0 Manufacturing 18.0 18.0 17.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 0.4 -4.2 Nonmanufacturing 171.8 171.3 172.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.3 1.6 Construction & Mining 7.8 7.6 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 1.4 2.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 49.8 50.4 50.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.9 3.2 Wholesale Trade 10.6 10.7 10.4 Retail Trade 24.5 24.8 25.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 14.7 14.9 15.0 Information 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.9 -10.0 -8.8 Financial Activities 7.5 7.5 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.8 -0.6 Prof & Business Services 15.7 16.5 16.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 10.0 7.9 Educ & Health Services 29.4 28.5 28.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 -3.5 -2.3 Leisure & Hospitality 16.9 16.8 16.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 3.4 3.1 Other Services 6.5 6.4 6.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 1.7 2.5 Federal Government 4.0 4.0 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 -0.7 -2.7 State & Local Government 32.3 31.8 32.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -2.4 0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
60
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
700.9 1.0 299.9 0.7 15.5 771 716 56
702.6 1.0 303.3 2.0 15.4 1087 1087 0
704.4 1.0 303.2 1.9 14.8 1021 1021 0
191.7 1.5 17.4 -3.9 174.3 2.1 7.8 3.1 51.5 4.2 10.8 25.0 15.7 1.8 -6.6 7.4 -0.4 16.5 7.6 29.1 -1.6 17.1 2.6 6.6 3.5 3.7 -6.3 32.6 0.7
193.0 1.7 17.5 -3.0 175.6 2.2 8.1 4.5 51.8 3.9 10.8 25.0 15.9 1.8 -1.8 7.4 -0.6 17.0 7.9 29.0 -1.3 17.7 4.7 6.5 1.0 3.7 -7.1 32.5 0.4
194.2 2.6 17.5 -2.4 176.7 3.1 8.2 8.4 52.1 3.5 10.8 25.1 16.2 1.9 2.0 7.4 -1.3 17.3 4.5 29.1 2.1 17.8 5.6 6.5 2.2 3.7 -7.6 32.7 2.8
195.8 3.2 17.6 0.9 178.1 3.4 8.4 9.4 52.5 4.1 10.9 25.1 16.5 1.9 5.0 7.4 0.6 17.5 6.2 29.2 1.6 17.8 5.9 6.6 0.1 3.6 -6.5 33.2 2.2
197.4 3.0 17.7 1.3 179.7 3.1 8.5 8.4 52.9 2.6 10.9 25.1 16.8 1.9 5.9 7.5 0.4 17.7 7.3 29.4 1.0 18.0 4.9 6.6 -0.7 3.6 -2.8 33.8 3.5
198.4 2.8 17.8 1.6 180.7 2.9 8.7 7.0 52.9 2.3 11.0 25.0 17.0 1.9 3.3 7.5 1.0 17.9 5.4 29.5 1.4 18.0 1.7 6.6 1.0 3.7 -2.1 34.1 4.9
199.6 2.8 17.8 1.7 181.8 2.9 8.9 8.4 53.1 1.9 11.0 25.0 17.1 1.9 1.1 7.5 1.3 18.2 5.1 29.6 1.4 18.0 1.5 6.6 1.4 3.7 0.6 34.3 5.1
201.0 2.7 18.0 2.1 183.0 2.7 9.2 9.6 53.3 1.4 11.1 25.1 17.2 1.9 0.0 7.5 1.3 18.4 5.5 29.7 1.4 18.0 1.1 6.7 1.6 3.7 0.8 34.7 4.4
202.2 2.4 18.1 2.1 184.2 2.5 9.4 10.6 53.5 1.2 11.1 25.1 17.3 1.9 -0.5 7.6 1.2 18.7 5.6 29.8 1.4 18.1 0.7 6.7 1.3 3.6 0.0 35.0 3.6
706.2 1.0 302.3 1.4 14.2 1354 1354 0
708.0 1.0 298.8 -0.3 13.8 1689 1406 283
710.0 1.0 300.3 -1.0 13.6 1757 1697 60
712.4 1.1 301.5 -0.5 13.4 1848 1759 89
714.8 1.2 302.8 0.1 13.2 1954 1827 127
717.3 1.3 303.9 1.7 12.9 2138 1959 179
719.8 1.4 304.7 1.5 12.6 2409 2171 238
722.3 1.4 305.5 1.3 12.2 2602 2309 293
724.7 1.4 306.0 1.1 11.8 2789 2444 345
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON
Quarterly Outlook for Stockton May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 Wages and Salaries 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 Nonwage Income 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.0 Real Personal Income (2005$) 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.6 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 34.3 34.5 34.8 35.1 35.5 35.7 36.0 36.4 36.8 37.1 37.4 37.8 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 50.0 50.3 50.6 50.9 51.3 51.6 51.9 52.1 52.5 52.9 53.3 53.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 203.2 204.4 205.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.4 2.3 Manufacturing 18.1 18.1 18.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.7 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 185.1 186.2 187.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.5 2.4 Construction & Mining 9.7 10.0 10.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.6 12.7 13.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 53.7 54.0 54.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.7 1.8 Wholesale Trade 11.2 11.3 11.3 Retail Trade 25.1 25.1 25.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 17.5 17.6 17.7 Information 1.9 1.9 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 0.0 1.1 Financial Activities 7.6 7.6 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.8 0.4 Prof & Business Services 18.9 19.2 19.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 5.4 5.3 Educ & Health Services 29.9 30.1 30.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.7 1.9 Leisure & Hospitality 18.1 18.1 18.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.5 0.5 Other Services 6.7 6.7 6.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 0.6 0.1 Federal Government 3.7 3.6 3.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -1.2 -1.1 State & Local Government 35.1 35.2 35.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.4 1.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
727.2 1.4 306.8 1.0 11.4 3003 2614 389
729.9 1.4 307.6 0.9 11.1 3270 2832 438
732.5 1.4 308.3 0.9 10.7 3507 3027 480
206.8 2.2 18.3 1.1 188.5 2.4 10.8 14.2 54.5 1.9 11.4 25.2 17.9 1.9 2.2 7.6 0.0 19.7 5.2 30.4 1.9 18.2 0.5 6.7 0.1 3.6 -0.9 35.3 1.0
207.9 2.3 18.3 1.3 189.5 2.4 11.1 14.1 54.7 1.9 11.5 25.2 18.0 1.9 2.7 7.5 -0.4 19.9 5.0 30.6 2.3 18.2 0.3 6.7 0.1 3.6 -1.9 35.4 1.1
208.9 2.2 18.4 1.3 190.5 2.3 11.3 13.1 54.9 1.7 11.6 25.2 18.2 1.9 2.7 7.5 -0.9 20.1 4.6 30.8 2.5 18.1 0.2 6.7 0.1 3.6 -1.8 35.5 1.1
209.8 2.1 18.4 1.3 191.4 2.2 11.6 11.3 55.1 1.7 11.6 25.2 18.3 1.9 3.7 7.5 -1.2 20.2 4.2 31.0 2.6 18.1 0.0 6.7 0.1 3.6 -1.7 35.7 1.2
210.8 1.9 18.5 1.2 192.3 2.0 11.7 9.1 55.3 1.5 11.7 25.2 18.4 2.0 3.2 7.5 -1.3 20.4 4.0 31.2 2.8 18.2 -0.1 6.7 0.3 3.6 -1.6 35.8 1.3
211.6 1.8 18.5 1.0 193.1 1.9 11.9 7.7 55.5 1.5 11.7 25.2 18.6 2.0 2.6 7.4 -1.3 20.6 3.7 31.4 2.6 18.2 0.1 6.7 0.3 3.5 -1.0 35.9 1.2
212.4 1.7 18.5 0.9 193.9 1.8 12.1 6.4 55.7 1.4 11.8 25.2 18.7 2.0 2.1 7.4 -1.3 20.8 3.6 31.6 2.6 18.2 0.2 6.7 0.4 3.5 -0.9 36.0 1.2
213.2 1.6 18.6 0.7 194.6 1.7 12.2 5.3 55.9 1.3 11.8 25.2 18.8 2.0 1.5 7.4 -1.3 20.9 3.5 31.8 2.6 18.2 0.3 6.7 0.6 3.5 -0.9 36.1 1.2
214.0 1.5 18.6 0.6 195.4 1.6 12.3 4.4 56.0 1.2 11.9 25.2 18.9 2.0 1.5 7.4 -1.4 21.1 3.2 32.1 2.7 18.2 0.3 6.7 0.6 3.5 -0.9 36.2 1.2
735.0 1.4 309.2 1.0 10.4 3586 3091 495
737.6 1.4 310.1 1.1 10.2 3627 3116 510
740.3 1.4 311.0 1.1 10.0 3670 3155 515
742.9 1.4 312.0 1.2 9.9 3733 3216 517
745.4 1.4 312.8 1.2 9.9 3798 3277 521
748.0 1.4 313.7 1.2 9.8 3829 3285 544
750.9 1.4 314.7 1.2 9.7 3853 3302 551
753.5 1.4 315.6 1.2 9.6 3887 3332 554
756.1 1.4 316.5 1.2 9.5 3930.0 3366.9 563.1
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
61
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON
Annual Outlook for Stockton May 2013 Forecast 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
18.3 3.8 8.3 10.0 18.3 0.8 27.8 27.8 39.9 1.5
19.5 6.4 8.7 10.8 19.0 3.6 29.4 28.6 41.5 3.9
20.7 6.4 9.2 11.5 19.6 3.6 31.0 29.4 43.2 4.3
21.0 1.3 9.3 11.7 19.3 -1.9 31.2 28.6 45.1 4.4
20.3 -3.1 8.9 11.4 18.7 -3.2 29.9 27.5 45.8 1.6
20.8 2.3 8.8 12.0 18.7 0.4 30.2 27.2 46.6 1.7
21.6 3.8 8.9 12.7 19.0 1.3 31.0 27.2 47.4 1.7
22.3 3.2 9.2 13.1 19.2 1.4 31.7 27.4 47.8 1.0
22.9 2.6 9.4 13.4 19.6 1.6 32.2 27.5 48.1 0.6
24.2 5.6 9.9 14.2 20.4 4.2 33.5 28.3 49.3 2.5
25.4 5.0 10.4 14.9 21.1 3.5 34.7 28.8 50.5 2.4
26.6 5.0 10.9 15.7 21.8 3.4 35.9 29.4 51.7 2.4
28.0 5.2 11.4 16.7 22.6 3.5 37.3 30.0 53.1 2.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 205.8 209.0 211.5 205.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.5 1.2 -2.7 Manufacturing 20.9 21.7 21.9 21.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 3.7 1.2 -3.2 Nonmanufacturing 184.9 187.3 189.5 184.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 1.3 1.2 -2.7 Construction & Mining 16.9 16.1 14.0 11.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.4 -4.8 -12.7 -17.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 49.0 50.5 51.4 50.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.1 1.8 -2.6 Wholesale Trade 9.1 9.8 10.5 10.4 Retail Trade 26.9 27.2 26.9 25.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.1 Information 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.6 -1.6 -2.0 -3.3 Financial Activities 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.9 -0.1 -5.3 Prof & Business Services 18.1 18.5 18.3 17.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.1 -1.0 -4.2 Educ & Health Services 25.6 26.1 27.7 28.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 2.1 5.9 2.5 Leisure & Hospitality 17.1 17.3 17.7 17.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.1 2.7 -1.7 Other Services 6.4 6.8 7.7 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 6.7 13.5 -4.1 Federal Government 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -1.2 0.3 -0.7 State & Local Government 35.6 35.7 36.4 36.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.3 1.9 0.2
193.7 -5.8 18.9 -11.1 174.8 -5.2 8.5 -26.1 47.5 -5.1 9.9 23.7 13.9 2.2 -7.2 8.8 -5.9 15.9 -9.4 28.3 -0.1 16.7 -4.5 7.0 -5.2 4.1 4.7 35.8 -1.6
187.7 -3.1 17.6 -6.6 170.0 -2.7 7.7 -9.5 47.5 0.0 10.0 23.7 13.8 2.1 -4.0 7.7 -12.8 15.4 -3.1 28.8 1.7 16.1 -3.2 6.5 -6.1 4.3 5.7 33.8 -5.5
187.5 -0.1 17.9 1.9 169.5 -0.3 7.5 -2.8 48.8 2.7 10.2 24.2 14.5 2.0 -7.0 7.4 -3.3 15.1 -1.6 29.4 2.3 16.4 1.5 6.3 -2.9 4.0 -7.1 32.5 -3.8
190.2 1.4 17.7 -1.1 172.4 1.7 7.7 3.0 50.6 3.6 10.6 24.8 15.1 1.8 -8.8 7.5 0.1 16.3 7.7 28.9 -1.7 16.9 3.4 6.5 2.8 3.9 -2.7 32.3 -0.7
195.1 2.6 17.6 -0.8 177.5 3.0 8.3 7.7 52.3 3.5 10.9 25.1 16.4 1.8 2.8 7.4 -0.2 17.4 6.5 29.2 0.9 17.8 5.3 6.6 0.6 3.7 -6.0 33.0 2.2
200.3 2.7 17.9 1.9 182.4 2.7 9.0 8.9 53.2 1.7 11.0 25.1 17.1 1.9 1.0 7.5 1.2 18.3 5.4 29.6 1.4 18.0 1.2 6.6 1.3 3.7 -0.2 34.5 4.5
205.0 2.3 18.2 1.4 186.8 2.4 10.2 13.0 54.1 1.7 11.3 25.1 17.7 1.9 0.7 7.6 0.6 19.3 5.4 30.1 1.8 18.1 0.5 6.7 0.4 3.6 -0.8 35.2 2.0
209.3 2.1 18.4 1.3 190.9 2.2 11.4 11.9 55.0 1.7 11.6 25.2 18.2 1.9 3.1 7.5 -1.0 20.1 4.5 30.9 2.6 18.1 0.1 6.7 0.2 3.6 -1.8 35.6 1.2
212.8 1.7 18.5 0.8 194.3 1.7 12.1 6.0 55.8 1.3 11.8 25.2 18.7 2.0 1.9 7.4 -1.3 20.8 3.5 31.7 2.6 18.2 0.2 6.7 0.5 3.5 -0.9 36.0 1.2
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
679.4 1.0 298.4 1.8 15.2 828 828 0
688.9 1.4 300.7 0.8 17.2 854 847 7
696.4 1.1 297.7 -1.0 16.9 951 824 127
703.5 1.0 302.2 1.5 15.0 1058 1044 14
711.3 1.1 300.8 -0.4 13.5 1812 1672 140
721.0 1.4 305.0 1.4 12.4 2485 2221 264
731.2 1.4 307.9 1.0 10.9 3341 2891 450
741.5 1.4 311.4 1.1 10.0 3707 3191 516
752.1 1.4 315.1 1.2 9.6 3875 3322 553
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (2005$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (2005$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago
62
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
657.2 2.0 283.9 0.5 7.9 6012 5832 180
663.4 0.9 284.5 0.2 7.4 3831 3692 139
668.4 0.8 289.0 1.6 8.1 2432 2318 114
672.6 0.6 293.2 1.5 10.4 1023 900 123
Va l l e jo - Fa i r f i e l d M S A SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Employment in the Vallejo MSA will increase 2.3 percent in 2013. Each quarter employment increases at a rate of 2.2 percent the first quarter, 2.4 percent the second quarter, 2.6 percent the third quarter, and 1.9 percent the fourth quarter. 2014 continues the gradual increase in employment with a rate of 2.1 percent. This steady increase will continue throughout the remainder of the forecast. Three sectors show promising job growth for 2013. The first being construction & mining, the leading sector, with employment growth of 7.9 percent, followed by manufacturing and other services with employment growths of 6.1 percent and 6.9 percent. Moderate growth is expected throughout most other sectors with the exception of information, federal, and state & local governments, which will suffer job losses.
After steady increases in real personal income for the past two years, 2013 will bring a decrease in real personal income of 0.2 percent. Luckily for 2014 and the remainder of the forecast, real personal income will spike at a 2.9 percent increase and continue to steadily increase at 2.4 percent each year thereafter. Population in the Vallejo MSA continues to grow at a 0.9 percent rate and will continue this pattern until 2016 where it will increase 1.0 percent for the remaining forecast. Labor force will grow 0.6 percent for the year 2013. Growth in labor force will remain under 1.0 percent until 2017. Unemployment will drop from 10.1 percent in 2012 to 8.9 percent in 2013. It will continue its gradual decline until 2017 where the unemployment rate will be 5.7 percent.
Vallejo Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago)
Vallejo Payroll Employment (Thousands)
12%
140
10%
135
8%
130
6%
125
4%
120
115
2%
0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
110
105
-2%
100
-4%
95 -6%
90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-8%
Vallejo and California Unemployment Rates (percent) 14%
12%
Vallejo-Fairfield Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011 (California = 100) 200
Unemployment Rate (%)
180
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
160 140
10%
120 100 8%
80 60 6%
40 4%
20 0 Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
63
METRO SUMMARY - VALLEJO/FAIRFIELD
Quarterly Outlook for Vallejo May 2013 Forecast 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.5 3.2 4.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.3 Wages and Salaries 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 Nonwage Income 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.9 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 Real Personal Income (2005$) 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 0.9 1.8 3.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 38.6 38.7 38.9 39.3 38.5 38.6 38.9 39.2 39.6 39.9 40.2 40.5 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.8 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.9 34.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 53.3 52.5 52.9 52.8 52.8 52.9 53.2 53.6 54.0 54.3 54.6 54.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -1.4 0.0 1.6 -1.0 0.7 0.5 1.5 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.5 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 118.5 118.8 119.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.8 2.0 Manufacturing 9.9 10.0 10.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 4.3 4.3 Nonmanufacturing 108.5 108.9 109.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.6 1.8 Construction & Mining 7.9 7.9 8.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 -2.4 2.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 25.3 25.8 25.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 3.7 4.7 Wholesale Trade 4.1 4.2 4.3 Retail Trade 16.7 16.9 16.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.5 4.7 4.7 Information 1.1 1.1 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 0.1 -0.1 Financial Activities 5.0 5.0 5.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -1.7 -1.5 Prof & Business Services 8.8 8.7 8.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 1.1 -5.1 Educ & Health Services 19.1 19.1 19.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.7 2.9 Leisure & Hospitality 13.3 13.3 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.5 1.5 Other Services 3.8 3.8 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 5.8 9.0 Federal Government 3.9 3.9 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.4 -11.2 -5.0 State & Local Government 20.3 20.3 20.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 2.0 1.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
64
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
419.8 0.9 218.0 1.5 10.4 372 372 0
420.8 0.9 218.8 1.8 10.4 472 472 0
421.7 0.9 217.0 0.7 10.0 557 557 0
120.8 2.2 10.1 4.2 110.8 2.1 8.6 6.4 26.1 4.2 4.5 16.7 4.9 1.1 0.5 5.0 0.3 8.6 -1.9 19.6 3.6 13.7 0.5 4.0 8.5 3.9 -2.2 20.1 -0.9
121.1 2.2 10.3 3.6 110.8 2.1 8.6 8.5 25.9 2.5 4.4 16.6 4.9 1.1 -2.7 5.1 0.8 8.7 -1.0 19.8 3.9 13.6 2.8 4.2 8.7 3.8 -3.5 20.0 -1.5
121.7 2.4 10.5 5.6 111.2 2.2 8.7 11.2 26.0 0.9 4.4 16.7 4.9 1.1 -1.4 5.1 0.9 8.8 0.8 19.9 4.2 13.7 3.0 4.2 9.4 3.7 -4.0 20.0 -1.3
122.5 2.6 10.8 7.5 111.7 2.1 8.9 7.4 26.1 1.3 4.5 16.7 5.0 1.1 0.2 5.1 1.3 8.9 4.6 19.9 3.1 13.7 3.0 4.2 5.9 3.7 -5.3 20.1 -0.6
123.1 1.9 10.8 7.5 112.3 1.4 9.0 4.4 26.2 0.4 4.5 16.7 5.0 1.1 1.1 5.1 1.6 9.0 4.6 20.0 2.3 13.8 1.2 4.2 3.7 3.7 -4.6 20.1 -0.2
123.7 2.2 10.9 6.0 112.8 1.8 9.2 6.5 26.2 1.1 4.5 16.6 5.0 1.1 2.4 5.1 1.4 9.1 4.6 20.1 1.7 13.8 1.5 4.2 1.4 3.7 -1.8 20.1 0.6
124.3 2.1 11.0 4.3 113.3 1.9 9.4 7.2 26.3 0.8 4.6 16.6 5.1 1.1 1.3 5.1 1.6 9.2 4.8 20.2 1.6 13.9 1.3 4.2 1.4 3.8 0.8 20.2 0.7
125.0 2.0 11.1 2.8 113.9 2.0 9.6 8.1 26.3 0.7 4.6 16.6 5.1 1.1 0.9 5.2 1.4 9.4 5.2 20.3 1.6 13.9 0.9 4.2 1.4 3.7 0.9 20.3 1.0
125.7 2.1 11.1 2.7 114.6 2.0 9.9 9.3 26.4 0.9 4.6 16.7 5.1 1.1 0.6 5.2 1.4 9.5 5.4 20.4 1.6 13.9 0.5 4.2 1.2 3.7 0.0 20.3 1.0
422.7 0.9 219.5 1.4 9.6 540 540 0
423.6 0.9 219.4 0.6 9.2 529 529 0
424.5 0.9 219.5 0.3 9.0 605 605 0
425.6 0.9 219.8 1.3 8.9 656 632 24
426.6 0.9 220.0 0.2 8.7 751 679 71
427.5 0.9 220.3 0.4 8.5 917 790 127
428.5 0.9 220.5 0.5 8.1 1135 944 190
429.5 0.9 220.8 0.5 7.8 1360 1116 244
430.5 0.9 221.1 0.5 7.5 1580 1281 298
METRO SUMMARY - VALLEJO/FAIRFIELD
Quarterly Outlook for Vallejo May 2013 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.3 Wages and Salaries 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 Nonwage Income 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 Real Personal Income (2005$) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 40.8 41.1 41.4 41.7 42.0 42.4 42.6 42.9 43.3 43.7 44.0 44.3 Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 34.1 34.3 34.4 34.4 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.9 35.1 35.3 35.4 35.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 55.3 55.6 55.9 56.2 56.5 56.9 57.2 57.4 57.8 58.2 58.6 58.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 126.3 127.0 127.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.2 2.2 Manufacturing 11.2 11.2 11.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.3 1.6 Nonmanufacturing 115.2 115.8 116.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.2 2.3 Construction & Mining 10.1 10.4 10.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.5 11.4 12.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 26.5 26.6 26.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.2 1.3 Wholesale Trade 4.6 4.7 4.7 Retail Trade 16.6 16.7 16.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 5.2 5.2 5.3 Information 1.1 1.1 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 0.3 1.6 Financial Activities 5.2 5.2 5.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.0 0.6 Prof & Business Services 9.6 9.8 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 5.9 6.1 Educ & Health Services 20.4 20.5 20.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.7 1.8 Leisure & Hospitality 13.9 13.9 13.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.4 0.3 Other Services 4.2 4.2 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.2 0.0 Federal Government 3.7 3.7 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -1.5 -1.4 State & Local Government 20.3 20.4 20.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 0.9 0.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family Multifamily
431.5 0.9 221.4 0.5 7.2 1803 1449 354
432.5 0.9 221.7 0.5 6.8 2047 1683 364
433.6 0.9 221.9 0.5 6.6 2211 1831 380
128.6 2.3 11.3 1.7 117.3 2.3 11.2 13.1 26.7 1.2 4.7 16.7 5.3 1.1 2.3 5.2 0.0 10.1 6.0 20.7 1.7 13.9 0.2 4.2 -0.2 3.7 -1.3 20.5 0.7
129.3 2.3 11.4 1.7 117.9 2.4 11.5 13.6 26.8 1.3 4.8 16.7 5.3 1.2 3.2 5.2 -0.4 10.2 5.7 20.8 1.9 13.9 0.0 4.2 -0.2 3.6 -2.2 20.5 0.8
130.0 2.3 11.4 1.7 118.5 2.4 11.8 13.0 26.9 1.3 4.8 16.7 5.4 1.2 3.4 5.1 -0.8 10.3 5.2 21.0 2.1 13.9 -0.1 4.2 -0.2 3.6 -2.2 20.6 0.9
130.6 2.2 11.5 1.7 119.2 2.2 12.1 11.8 27.0 1.2 4.8 16.7 5.4 1.2 3.3 5.1 -1.2 10.4 4.6 21.1 2.3 13.9 -0.2 4.2 -0.2 3.6 -2.1 20.6 0.9
131.2 2.1 11.5 1.6 119.7 2.1 12.3 10.1 27.1 1.2 4.9 16.8 5.4 1.2 2.8 5.1 -1.4 10.5 4.6 21.2 2.5 13.9 -0.4 4.2 0.0 3.6 -2.0 20.7 1.1
131.8 2.0 11.5 1.3 120.3 2.0 12.5 8.5 27.1 1.1 4.9 16.8 5.5 1.2 2.6 5.1 -1.6 10.6 4.5 21.4 2.6 13.9 -0.2 4.2 0.2 3.6 -1.4 20.7 1.1
132.4 1.8 11.6 1.2 120.8 1.9 12.6 6.9 27.2 1.1 4.9 16.8 5.5 1.2 2.2 5.1 -1.8 10.7 4.4 21.5 2.6 13.9 -0.1 4.2 0.2 3.6 -1.3 20.8 1.2
132.9 1.7 11.6 1.0 121.3 1.8 12.7 5.4 27.3 1.1 4.9 16.8 5.5 1.2 1.8 5.0 -1.8 10.9 4.5 21.7 2.7 13.9 0.0 4.3 0.5 3.6 -1.3 20.9 1.3
133.4 1.7 11.6 0.9 121.8 1.7 12.8 4.2 27.3 1.0 5.0 16.8 5.6 1.2 1.5 5.0 -1.8 11.0 4.1 21.9 3.0 13.9 0.1 4.3 0.5 3.5 -1.2 21.0 1.4
434.6 1.0 222.2 0.5 6.5 2264 1871 393
435.6 1.0 222.4 0.5 6.3 2271.7 1863.2 408.5
436.6 1.0 222.7 0.5 6.1 2285.4 1861.2 424.2
437.8 1.0 223.0 0.5 6.1 2287.6 1852.1 435.5
438.8 1.0 223.4 0.5 6.0 2285.7 1836.0 449.7
439.8 1.0 223.8 0.6 5.9 2280.0 1811.6 468.4
440.9 1.0 224.2 0.6 5.8 2241.2 1760.0 481.2
442.1 1.0 224.6 0.7 5.7 2206.5 1717.8 488.7
443.2 1.0 225.0 0.7 5.6 2195.7 1692.7 503.0
University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center
65
METRO SUMMARY - VALLEJO/FAIRFIELD
Annual Outlook for Vallejo May 2013 Forecast 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
14.1 4.2 5.7 8.4 14.1 1.2 34.5 34.5 41.6 2.6
14.9 5.5 6.0 8.9 14.5 2.7 36.4 35.5 43.5 4.7
15.6 5.1 6.3 9.3 14.8 2.3 38.3 36.3 46.3 6.4
16.0 2.5 6.6 9.5 14.7 -0.7 39.2 35.9 49.3 6.5
15.4 -4.0 6.6 8.8 14.1 -4.1 37.4 34.3 51.6 4.6
15.3 -0.5 6.5 8.8 13.8 -2.4 36.9 33.2 52.2 1.2
15.9 3.7 6.6 9.3 13.9 1.3 38.0 33.4 52.9 1.4
16.4 3.2 6.7 9.7 14.1 1.4 38.9 33.6 52.9 0.0
16.5 0.8 6.9 9.6 14.1 -0.2 38.8 33.2 53.1 0.4
17.2 4.2 7.2 10.0 14.5 2.9 40.1 33.8 54.4 2.5
17.9 3.9 7.5 10.4 14.9 2.4 41.3 34.3 55.7 2.4
18.6 4.0 7.8 10.7 15.2 2.4 42.5 34.8 57.0 2.3
19.4 4.1 8.2 11.2 15.6 2.4 43.8 35.3 58.4 2.5
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 128.8 129.9 128.4 125.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 0.9 -1.2 -2.2 Manufacturing 10.0 10.6 10.6 10.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 5.3 0.3 -2.6 Nonmanufacturing 118.7 119.3 117.8 115.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 0.5 -1.3 -2.1 Construction & Mining 13.8 13.0 11.0 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.0 -5.6 -14.8 -13.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 0.1 -1.4 -1.4 Wholesale Trade 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 Retail Trade 18.6 18.8 18.3 17.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.1 Information 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6 -0.8 -5.7 -3.6 Financial Activities 6.3 6.2 5.6 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 -0.9 -9.8 -9.1 Prof & Business Services 11.3 11.5 11.5 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 1.3 0.2 -7.4 Educ & Health Services 15.8 16.2 17.0 17.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 3.0 4.3 2.6 Leisure & Hospitality 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 2.8 2.4 1.0 Other Services 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -1.9 -3.7 -2.5 Federal Government 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 -1.2 0.3 -3.2 State & Local Government 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.8 2.7 1.9
121.0 -3.7 9.8 -4.7 111.2 -3.6 7.7 -19.7 25.6 -4.7 4.1 16.3 5.3 1.3 -10.7 5.1 -0.1 10.8 1.4 17.8 2.4 13.2 -1.5 3.7 -5.9 4.0 4.3 22.0 -4.6
117.5 -2.9 9.7 -1.3 107.8 -3.0 7.4 -3.2 25.3 -1.1 4.1 16.4 4.8 1.3 -2.8 5.2 2.4 8.8 -18.1 18.3 2.9 13.0 -1.4 3.6 -1.9 4.6 15.1 20.3 -7.8
117.4 -0.2 9.6 -0.9 107.7 -0.1 8.0 8.7 24.9 -1.7 4.0 16.5 4.4 1.1 -12.2 5.1 -2.0 8.8 0.1 18.7 2.0 13.1 1.0 3.6 1.7 4.2 -7.7 20.1 -1.1
119.4 1.7 10.0 4.0 109.4 1.5 8.2 2.0 25.7 3.3 4.3 16.8 4.7 1.1 -0.6 5.0 -1.8 8.7 -1.6 19.3 3.0 13.4 1.9 3.9 7.2 3.9 -7.5 20.2 0.8
122.1 2.3 10.6 6.1 111.5 1.9 8.8 7.9 26.1 1.3 4.5 16.7 4.9 1.1 -0.7 5.1 1.1 8.9 2.3 19.9 3.4 13.7 2.5 4.2 6.9 3.7 -4.4 20.1 -0.9
124.7 2.1 11.0 3.9 113.7 1.9 9.5 7.8 26.3 0.9 4.6 16.6 5.1 1.1 1.3 5.1 1.4 9.3 5.0 20.2 1.6 13.9 1.1 4.2 1.4 3.7 0.0 20.2 0.9
127.4 2.2 11.2 2.0 116.2 2.2 10.6 11.7 26.6 1.2 4.7 16.7 5.2 1.1 0.9 5.2 0.7 9.8 5.9 20.6 1.7 13.9 0.3 4.2 0.2 3.7 -1.1 20.4 0.9
130.3 2.2 11.4 1.7 118.8 2.3 11.9 12.1 26.9 1.3 4.8 16.7 5.4 1.2 3.2 5.1 -0.9 10.3 5.0 21.0 2.2 13.9 -0.2 4.2 -0.2 3.6 -2.1 20.6 0.9
132.6 1.8 11.6 1.1 121.1 1.9 12.7 6.3 27.2 1.1 4.9 16.8 5.5 1.2 2.0 5.0 -1.7 10.8 4.4 21.6 2.7 13.9 0.0 4.2 0.4 3.6 -1.3 20.9 1.3
Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
410.9 0.4 214.6 1.5 10.6 602 589 13
414.3 0.8 214.6 0.0 12.0 532 532 0
417.5 0.8 215.5 0.4 11.5 413 413 0
421.2 0.9 218.3 1.3 10.1 485 485 0
425.1 0.9 219.7 0.6 8.9 635 611 24
429.0 0.9 220.7 0.5 8.0 1248 1033 215
433.0 0.9 221.8 0.5 6.8 2081 1708 373
437.2 1.0 222.9 0.5 6.1 2283 1853 429
441.5 1.0 224.4 0.7 5.7 2231 1746 485
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (2005$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (2005$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago
66
California & Metro Forecast - May 2013
408.3 -0.2 208.9 0.9 5.4 2512 1976 535
408.4 0.0 208.4 -0.2 4.9 1241 1129 112
408.4 0.0 208.5 0.0 5.3 1024 874 150
409.2 0.2 211.3 1.3 6.9 472 353 119
B U S I N E S S
F O R E C A S T I N G
C E N T E R
University of the Pacific A national doctoral university, University of the Pacific is recognized for an education combining exceptional professional preparation in a student-centered tradition of close interactions between students and professors. With a core liberal arts college and eight professional schools, more than any university enrolling fewer than 10,000 students, Pacific offers professional opportunities associated with far larger institutions in the environment of a small learning community. Pacific is California’s first chartered institution of higher learning, having received its articles of incorporation from the California Supreme Court on July 10, 1851. The University enrolls more than 5,600 students on three campuses situated in the Northern California cities of San Francisco, Stockton and Sacramento. President Pamela A. Eibeck www.pacific.edu Eberhardt School of Business The Eberhardt School of Business offers a Masters in Business Administration, a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, and a Minor in Management to approximately 600 students. With an emphasis on small classes and close student-faculty relationships, the program is committed to developing successful future business leaders. In addition to developing well-rounded and highly skilled graduates, the Eberhardt School of Business has demonstrated its commitment to community service and regional economic development through a variety of outreach programs and activities including the Business Forecasting Center, Career Management Center, Center for Entrepreneurship, Institute for Family Business, Invention Evaluation Service, and Westgate Center for Management Development. Dean Lewis R. Gale www.business.pacific.edu Business Forecasting Center The Business Forecasting Center, founded in 2004 and housed in the Eberhardt School of Business, produces quarterly economic forecasts of the United States, California and 10 metropolitan areas from Sacramento to Fresno to the San Francisco Bay Area. In addition to its forecasting program, the Center offers consulting services to businesses and government including economic impact studies, survey analysis, econometric studies, market sizing and forecasting.
Jeffrey A. Michael, Ph.D. Director, Business Forecasting Center Ph.D., North Carolina State University; M.S., University of Maine; B.A., Hamilton College (NY)
Dr. Jeffrey Michael is Director of the Business Forecasting Center and Associate Professor in the Eberhardt School of Business at the University of the Pacific. Jeff’s areas of expertise include regional economic forecasting and environmental economics including work on the economic impacts of the Endangered Species Act, climate change, and regulation on land use, property values and employment growth. His research has received numerous grants, been published in scholarly journals and received local and national press coverage including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times Magazine, San Francisco Chronicle, Washington Post, NPR, and PBS. Prior to joining Pacific in 2008, Jeff was faculty at Towson University in Maryland where he served as Director of the Center for Applied Business and Economic Research, Associate Dean, and faculty. Jeff received his Ph.D. from North Carolina State University, M.S. from the University of Maine, and B.A. from Hamilton College (NY).
U N I V E R S I T Y O F T H E PA C I F I C E B E R H A R D T S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S
EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
BusinessForecasting Center
