EMERGING EVIDENCE ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND OF AFRICA Adedoyin Soyibo University of Ibadan NIgeria
OUTLINE Population Age Structure LCD Estimates and Components Demographic Dividend Estimates Implications Recommendations Acknowledgements
Africa’s Population Structure, 19502100
In 1950 Africa was 183 million with dependency ratio of 82% ; Working Age Population (WAP) ratio of just 18% In 2010 Africa’s population became to 863 million with WAP ratio about 1.5 times 1950 value. By 2050, Africa’s population is projected to increase to 1,753 million. Over the thre periods, population structure alters in favour of less Young Age Dependency; with greater Old Age Dependency observed with increasing years
African population Growth by Regions, 1950‐2100 4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
‐
1950‐1955 1970‐1975 1990‐1995 2010‐2015 2030‐2035 2050‐2055 2070‐2075 2090‐2095 (0.50)
Sub Sahara Africa
Eastern Africa
Western
Southern
Northern
Central
Population Age structure, Mozambique 4.5 4 3.5
Percent
3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0
10
20
30
1950
40
2000
50
2050
60
70
80
90
Population age structure, Kenya 5
percent
4 3 2 1 0 0
10
20
30
40 1950
50 2000
60
70 2050
80
90
100
Population age structure, Nigeria
5
percent
4
3
2
1
0 0
10
20
30
40
1950
50
2000
60
70
2050
80
90
100
Population age structure, Senegal 5
percent
4
3
2
1
0 0
10
20
30
40 1950
50 2000
60
70 2050
80
90
100
Population age structure, South Africa
5
percent
4
3
2
1
0 0
10
20
30
40 1950
50 2000
60
70 2050
80
90
100
LCD Estimates and Components normalized by mean YL ages 30-49
Per Capita Consumption 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0
Kenya, 2005
10
20
Nigeria, 2004
30
40
Senegal, 2005
50
60
South Africa, 2005
70
80
Mozambique, 2005
90+
normalized by mean YL ages 30-49
Per Capita Public Consumption 0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0 0
Kenya, 2005
10
20
Nigeria, 2004
30
Senegal, 2005
40
50
South Africa, 2005
60
70
Mozambique, 2005
80
90+
normalized by mean YL ages 30-49
Per Capita Private Consumption 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0
Kenya, 2005
10
20
Nigeria, 2004
30
Senegal, 2005
40
50
South Africa, 2005
60
70
Mozambique, 2005
80
90+
normalized by mean YL ages 30-49
Per Capita Education Consumption 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0
Kenya, 2005
10
Nigeria, 2004
20
30
Senegal, 2005
40
50
South Africa, 2005
60
70
Mozambique, 2005
80
90+
normalized by mean YL ages 30-49
Per Capita Health Consumption (Public) 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 0
Kenya, 2005
10
Nigeria, 2004
20
30
Senegal, 2005
40
50
South Africa, 2005
60
70
Mozambique, 2005
80
90+
normalized by mean YL ages 30-49
Per Capita Private Education Consumption 0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0 0
Kenya, 2005
10
Nigeria, 2004
20
30
Senegal, 2005
40
50
South Africa, 2005
60
70
Mozambique, 2005
80
90+
normalized by mean YL ages 30-49
Per Capita Private Health Consumption 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0
Kenya, 2005
10
20
Nigeria, 2004
30
40
Senegal, 2005
50
60
South Africa, 2005
70
80
Mozambique, 2005
90+
normalized by mean YL ages 30-49
Per Capita Labour Income 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0
Kenya, 2005
10
20
Nigeria, 2004
30
40
Senegal, 2005
50
60
South Africa, 2005
70
80
Mozambique, 2005
90+
Per Capita Lifecycle Deficit Lifecycle Deficit
1 South Africa (2005) 0.5 Kenya (2005) Nigeria (2004) Senegal (2005)
-0.5
-1 Age
90+
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 0
Per average labor income ages 30-49
1.5
Economic Support Ratio
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
KE
2000
NG
2010
SN
2020
ZA
2030
MZ
2040
2050
The First Demographic Dividend
1.5
Percent
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5 1950
1960
1970
1980
KE
1990
NG
2000
SN
2010
ZA
2020
MZ
2030
2040
2050
Currently, all countries are enjoying the demographic dividend (with small pause in South Africa) However, the dividend is expected to reach the peak by 2030 and end soon after 2050
Implications •In Africa, the best opportunities can turn out to be the biggest challenges • Jobs creation • Education • Health – infant/child mortality, maternal health, unmet need for family planning • That, of course, raises the more difficult question of “How”. What are some of the main opportunities Africa can capitalize on to realize its demographic dividend?
Recommendations
Improve access to labor markets for the youth domestically and regionally Working hard to promote fertility decline Strengthening and enhancing the financial sector to promote the conditions of promoting investments that will ensure the realization of the second DD
Acknowledgements Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation provided the grants for the research Global NTA Network, led by Ronal Lee and Andrew Mason The Country Africa NTA teams for the data and analysis
THANKS
