Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District Workers' Compensation Self - Insurance Program Actuarial Review as of June 30, 2013
Firm:
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc. 1336 SW 146th Ct. Miami, Florida 33184 (305) 273-1589
Contact:
Aguedo (Bob) M. Ingco, FCAS, MAAA, CPCU, ARM
Date:
November 27, 2013
November 27, 2013 Mr. Lewis Clinton, CFO Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District 1600 Franklin Street Oakland, CA 94612
VIA E-MAIL
[email protected] [email protected]
Dear Mr. Clinton: We are pleased to submit to you the electronic copy of our report on the actuarial review for AC Transit’s Workers Compensation Self-Insurance Program as of June 30, 2013. We greatly appreciate the patience, cooperation and courtesies extended to us during the course of this engagement. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions on the study. Thank you very much for the opportunity to work with you. Sincerely,
Bob Ingco, FCAS, MAAA, CPCU, ARM President
cc: Charlie Chittenden-(electronic)
TABLE OF CONTENTS I.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PAGE
Purpose ................................................................................................................................. 1 Terminology ......................................................................................................................... 1 Conclusion............................................................................................................................ 2 Distribution and Use............................................................................................................. 3 Reliance and Limitations ...................................................................................................... 3 GASB 10 Affirmation .......................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgment of Qualifications ...................................................................................... 3
II. ACTUARIAL REPORT
PAGE
Background .......................................................................................................................... 4 Actuarial Approach .............................................................................................................. 5-7 Results of Calculations ......................................................................................................... 8-10 Attached Exhibits ................................................................................................................. 11-12 Attached Appendices............................................................................................................ 12
III. ACTUARIAL EXHIBITS
EXHIBIT
Estimated Reserves .......................................................................................................... Summary Calculation of Total Reserves Excluding Paratransit ................................................................................... I Calculation of Total Reserves Paratransit ..................................................................................................... II Calculation of Loss Development Factors ........................................................................ Appendix A-B Calculation of Discount Factors ....................................................................................... Appendix C Analysis of Net Undiscounted Reserve Change Excluding Paratransit ................................................................................. Appendix D Analysis of Net Undiscounted Reserve Change Paratransit................................................................................................... Appendix E
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Comparison of Estimated Ultimate Losses Excluding Paratransit ................................................................................... Appendix F Comparison of Estimated Ultimate Losses Paratransit..................................................................................................... Appendix G Comparison of Paid Losses Excluding Paratransit ................................................................................... Appendix H Comparison of Paid Losses Paratransit..................................................................................................... Appendix I
IV. GLOSSARY OF TERMS
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Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District Workers’ Compensation Self-Insurance Program Actuarial Review June 30, 2013 Purpose
Terminology
The Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District (“AC Transit”) has engaged the services of AMI Risk Consultants, Inc. (“AMI”) to perform the following for its self-insurance program: •
Estimate the funding requirements for outstanding claim liabilities at June 30, 2013, for Workers’ Compensation claims.
•
Estimate the funding requirements for new Workers’ Compensation claims occurring during prospective fiscal year 2013/2014.
The funding requirements are liabilities retained for losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses (“ALAE”). Included in the funding requirements for outstanding claim liabilities are case reserves for reported losses, reserves for incurred but not reported losses (“IBNR”), credit for future investment income, and margins to protect against adverse results. Excluded from the funding requirement estimates is any provision to meet other general and administrative expenses of the self-insurance program such as excess insurance premiums, claims administration fees or internal risk management costs. For this report the term “losses” means losses and ALAE unless otherwise indicated. The term “reserves” or “loss reserves” may be used to mean outstanding claim liabilities as of a given date. Estimates are shown in thousands of dollars ($000’s) unless otherwise indicated.
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Conclusion
Funding for Outstanding Claim Liabilities (Loss Reserves) at June 30, 2013 We estimated the following funding requirement for AC Transit’s Self Insurance Program for Workers’ Compensation claims at June 30, 2013 (see page 8 for details). This is the estimated amount needed to settle unpaid loss and ALAE liabilities incurred on or before June 30, 2013.
Discount Rate 3.0% Discount Rate
Estimated Funding at June 30, 2013 Workers’ Compensation 75% Confidence Level ($ amts in thousands) Undiscounted $50,767
Discounted $44,550
3.5% Discount Rate
$50,767
$43,669
4.5% Discount Rate
$50,767
$42,022
Funding for New Claims Occurring During Fiscal Year 2013/2014 Our estimated funding requirement for new claims occurring during prospective fiscal year 2013/2014 is as follows (see page 9 for details).
Estimated Funding for Fiscal/Accident Year 2013/2014 New Claims Workers’ Compensation 75% Confidence Level ($ amts in thousands) Discount Rate Undiscounted Discounted 3.0% Discount Rate 3.5% Discount Rate 4.5% Discount Rate
$11,686 $11,686 $11,686
$10,275 $10,076 $9,701
These are estimates of the ultimate cost of new claims that will occur during the upcoming fiscal year. These amounts can be expected to pay out over a number of years as these new claims are eventually settled and closed. Please note that these estimates do not represent projected cash flow from claim payments for the upcoming year. Cash flow will be generated by a combination of both new and old claims for which payments must be made during the year. These amounts shown in both tables above are for claims only, and do not include a provision for administrative and overhead expenses. In the above estimates, we used margins relating to a 75% confidence level. Estimates at the expected confidence level are shown in the Summary Exhibit following this report.
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Distribution and Use
This report is for the internal use of the management of AC Transit. We suggest that the user of this report review a complete copy as parts considered out of context might be misleading. Please request our written consent prior to distributing this report to other third parties.
Reliance and Limitations
In performing the analysis, we relied, without audit or verification, on the following information furnished by AC Transit: •
Historical loss development information for workers’ compensation liability claims through June 30, 2013. Cumulative losses were separated between Paratransit and All Other Excluding Paratransit.
•
Exposure estimates by fiscal year through the end of fiscal year 2013. For exposure data, AC Transit provided total payroll.
Calculations of net reserves are subject to potential errors of estimation because the ultimate liability for claims is subject to the outcome of events yet to occur, e.g., jury decisions and attitudes of claimants with respect to settlements. In projecting loss emergence, we assumed that historical loss development patterns are predictive of future patterns. We have not anticipated any extraordinary changes in the legal, social or economic environment that might affect the ultimate cost of claims. We cannot reasonably estimate the uncertainties that ultimate liabilities are subject to. Therefore, while we believe our assumptions and methods are reasonable, we cannot guarantee that actual results will not differ, perhaps substantially, from our estimates.
GASB 10 Affirmation
We affirm the estimates contained in this report are consistent with GASB Statement No. 10.
Acknowledgment of Qualifications
Aguedo M. (Bob) Ingco is a consulting actuary and President of AMI Risk Consultants, Inc. He is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. Mr. Ingco meets the qualification standards of the American Academy of Actuaries to provide the estimates in this report.
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Background
AC Transit’s self-insured program has historically maintained specific excess insurance through various carriers. Below is a history of the Workers’ Compensation retentions: Policy Period 8/1/71 ‐ 7/31/72 8/1/72 ‐ 7/31/73 8/1/73 ‐ 7/31/74 8/1/74 ‐ 7/31/75 8/1/75 ‐ 7/31/76 8/1/76 ‐ 7/31/77 8/1/77 ‐ 7/31/78 8/1/78 ‐ 7/31/79 8/1/79 ‐ 7/31/80 8/1/80 ‐ 7/31/81 8/1/81 ‐ 12/31/81 1/1/82 ‐ 12/31/82 1/1/83 ‐ 12/31/83 1/1/84 ‐ 12/31/84 1/1/85 ‐ 12/31/85 1/1/86 ‐ 12/31/86 1/1/87 ‐ 12/31/87 1/1/88 ‐ 12/31/88 1/1/89 ‐ 3/31/92 4/1/92 ‐ 3/31/93 4/1/93 ‐ 3/31/94 4/1/94 ‐ 3/31/95 4/1/95 ‐ 3/31/96 4/1/96 ‐ 3/31/97 4/1/97 ‐ 3/31/01 4/1/01 ‐ 3/31/02 4/1/02 ‐ 3/31/03 4/1/03 ‐ 3/31/04 4/1/04 ‐ 5/31/04 6/1/04 ‐ 6/30/05 7/1/05 ‐ 6/30/06 7/1/06 ‐ 6/30/07 7/1/07 ‐ 6/30/08 7/1/08 ‐ 6/30/09 7/1/09 ‐ 6/30/10 7/1/10 ‐ 6/30/11 7/1/11 ‐ 6/30/12 7/1/12‐ 6/30/13 7/1/13 ‐ 6/30/14
Retention Level $23,000 $25,000 $29,000 $50,000 $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000
Reinsurer Policy # State Fund None State Fund None State Fund None State Fund None State Fund None Employers Re C‐20714 (XLX‐120‐15‐13) Employers Re C‐20714 (XLX‐120‐15‐13) Employers Re C‐20714 (XLX‐120‐15‐13) Employers Re C‐20714R Employers Re C‐22121 Employers Re C‐22207 Employers Re XLX‐1203026 Employers Re C‐22207‐R Employers Re C‐22207‐R Employers Re C‐22207‐R Employers Re C‐22207‐R2 Employers Re C‐22207‐R3 Employers Re C‐22207‐R2 General Re X‐7231 General Re X‐7231 General Re X‐7231 National Union Fire 4154314 Employers Re 560925 Employers Re 560925 Employers Re 560925 Employers Re 560925 Employers Re 560925 Midwest Employers Cas 5018‐SO‐CA CSAC 040104‐D CSAC 040104‐D CSAC 040104‐D CSAC CPEIAOGEWC‐75 CSAC CPEIAOGEWC‐75 Arch EWC175 Arch WCX0034193‐00 Safety National SP A52D CA Safety National SP 4044591 Safety National SP4046554 Safety National SP4049166
Paratransit Operations were closed and outsourced effective June 28, 2011
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Actuarial Approach
Funding for Outstanding Claim Liabilities (Loss Reserves) at June 30, 2013 To estimate the total reserves as of June 30, 2013, we used the following four actuarial approaches. They were applied separately by accident year and by type of coverage: • • • •
Description of the methods we used to estimate the reserves as of June 30, 2013.
Incurred Loss Development Approach (ILDA) Paid Loss Development Approach (PLDA) Bornhuetter-Ferguson Incurred Loss Approach (BFILA) Bornhuetter-Ferguson Paid Loss Approach (BFPLA).
Incurred Loss Development Approach (ILDA) Under the ILDA, we multiplied incurred losses to date by the appropriate loss development factors to estimate ultimate losses. Paid Loss Development Approach (PLDA) The PLDA is similar to the ILDA. Instead of multiplying incurred losses by loss development factors, we multiplied paid losses by the appropriate loss development factors to estimate ultimate losses. Bornhuetter-Ferguson Incurred Loss Approach (BFILA) Under the BFILA, we summed actual incurred losses and expected unreported losses to estimate projected ultimate losses. Bornhuetter-Ferguson Paid Loss Approach (BFPLA) Under the BFPLA, we summed actual paid losses and expected unpaid losses to estimate projected ultimate losses. Ultimate loss estimates were selected for each accident year based on the results of the four methods. Paid losses were then subtracted from selected ultimate losses to estimate total loss reserves. In applying the four approaches, we used loss development factors that are based on AC Transit’s historical loss development experience. We assumed that losses will be reserved and paid consistently with the past. Initial ultimate loss estimates for the Bornhuetter-Ferguson approaches were selected from results of the ILDA and PLDA.
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Actuarial Approach (continued)
Calculation of Ultimate Losses for Accident Year 2012/2013 To react to the immaturity of the paid and incurred losses for accident year 2012/2013, we used the Loss Rate Approach (“LRA”) in lieu of the ILDA and PLDA. Under the LRA, the loss rate, the ratio of net ultimate loss to exposure, is estimated for 2012/2013 based on the loss rates of prior years. This loss rate is multiplied by the 2012/2013 exposure to estimate the 2012/2013 ultimate loss. Future Investment Income and Risk Margins Because claims are not settled immediately, reserves used to fund future payments earn investment income before they are used to pay claims. In estimating the reserves at June 30, 2013 and the required funding level for fiscal year 2013/2014, we reduced estimated liabilities by future investment income. Furthermore, our estimates using the various methods and procedures we have described are based on an expected value. Conceptually, an expected value is an average value. The actual losses of an entity like AC Transit will vary and could be higher or lower than this average value. The more risk margin that is added to this average value in determining the funding level, the higher the likelihood that AC Transit’s funding level will be sufficient to pay for actual losses. In our calculations, we used a margin for various confidence levels including the 75% confidence level. With the 75% confidence level, we are estimating the margin that is necessary so that there is a 75% likelihood that the funding level will be sufficient to cover the actual liabilities.
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Actuarial Approach (continued)
The steps we used to estimate recommended funding level for Fiscal Year 2013/2014
Funding for New Claims Occurring During Fiscal Year 2013/2014 To estimate the funding level for prospective fiscal year 2013/2014, we followed these steps: •
Estimated the historical loss rates by accident year. Loss rates are selected ultimate losses divided by the appropriate exposure. For exposure, we used payroll.
•
Extrapolated the historical loss rates to fiscal year 2013/2014.
•
Multiplied the extrapolated loss rates by the projected exposures.
As we did when estimating the loss reserves as of June 30, 2013, we estimated future investment income and a risk margin.
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Results of Calculations
Funding for Outstanding Claim Liabilities (Loss Reserves) at June 30, 2013
Our estimated funding requirements (including IBNR reserves, credit for investment income, and margin for adverse deviation), separately for Paratransit and All Other Excluding Paratransit, at June 30, 2013, are as follows: Workers’ Compensation - Excluding Paratransit Funding Level at the 75% Confidence Level Estimated Reserves as of June 30, 2013 ($amts in thousands)
Discount Rate Rate of 3.0% Rate of 3.5% Rate of 4.5%
Net Undiscounted Reserves (1) $43,756 $43,756 $43,756
Margin Amount (2) $6,003 $6,003 $6,003
Net Undisc Reserves at 75% Conf Level (3) = (1) + (2) $49,759 $49,759 $49,759
Credit for Investment Income (4) $6,085 $6,945 $8,558
Net Discounted Reserves (5) = (3) - (4) $43,674 $42,814 $41,201
Workers’ Compensation - Paratransit Funding Level at the 75% Confidence Level Estimated Reserves as of June 30, 2013 ($amts in thousands)
Discount Rate Rate of 3.0% Rate of 3.5% Rate of 4.5%
Net Undiscounted Reserves (1) $886 $886 $886
Margin Amount (2) $122 $122 $122
Net Undisc Reserves at 75% Conf Level (3) = (1) + (2) $1,008 $1,008 $1,008
Credit for Investment Income (4) $132 $153 $187
Net Discounted Reserves (5) = (3) - (4) $876 $855 $821
In the above estimates, we used the margins relating to the 75% confidence level.
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Results of Calculations (continued)
Funding for New Claims Occurring During Fiscal Year 2013/2014 Our estimated funding for new claims occurring during fiscal year 2013/2014 is as follows: Workers’ Compensation - Excluding Paratransit Estimated Funding for Fiscal Year 2013/2014 New Claims 75% Confidence Level ($amts in thousands)
Discount Rate Rate of 3.0% Rate of 3.5% Rate of 4.5%
Net Undiscounted Ultimate Losses (1) $10,276 $10,276 $10,276
Margin Amount for Undisc. Reserves (2) $1,410 $1,410 $1,410
Net Undiscounted Ultimate Losses @75% Confidence Level (3) = (1) + (2) $11,686 $11,686 $11,686
Credit for Invest. Income (4) $1,411 $1,610 $1,985
Net Discounted Ultimate Losses (5) = (3) – (4) $10,275 $10,076 $9,701
As with the funding requirements as of June 30, 2013, in the above estimates, we used margins relating to the 75% confidence level. No new claims associated with 2013/2014 accidents are expected to arise from the terminated Paratransit operations.
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Results of Calculations (continued)
Graphs of Results To give perspective on the prospective funding level relative to the historical trend in ultimate losses and loss rates, we prepared the following graphs. The bar graph shows the history of ultimate losses by year. Values are read from the left-hand vertical axis. The line graph shows the history of loss rates (i.e. losses as percent of payroll). Values are read from the right-hand vertical axis. WORKERS' COMPENSATION CLAIMS EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ULTIMATE LOSSES AND LOSS RATES 9.0%
$10,000
LOSSES AS A % OF PAYROLL (line graph)
ULTIMATE LOSSES ($000'S) (bar graph)
$12,000
8.5%
$8,000 8.0% $6,000 7.5% $4,000 7.0%
$2,000 $0
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
6.5%
ACCIDENT YEAR ULTIMATE LOSSES
LOSS RATES
AUTO AND GENERAL LIABILITY CLAIMS PARATRANSIT ULTIMATE LOSSES
$1,400
$1,200
ULTIMATE LOSSES ($000'S)
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
$0
ACCIDENT YEAR ULTIMATE LOSSES
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Attached Exhibits
We prepared the attached Summary Exhibit to summarize the results of our calculations as follows: • • •
Page 1 shows the estimated funding level at June 30, 2013 at the expected confidence level, under an assumed discount rate of 3.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively. Page 2 shows the estimated funding level at June 30, 2013 at the 75% confidence level, under an assumed discount rate of 3.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively. Page 3 shows the expected and recommended funding levels for fiscal year 2013/2014, at an assumed discount rate of 3.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively.
We prepared the attached Exhibits I-II to estimate the total reserves at June 30, 2013 and the funding for prospective fiscal accident year 2013/2014. • •
Exhibit I – Excluding Paratransit Exhibit II – Paratransit.
There are 5 pages to Exhibit I. Each page relates to the following: •
Page 1 shows how we estimated the loss reserves at June 30, 2013 before considering future investment income and the margins necessary to raise the confidence levels higher than the expected level. To estimate the loss reserves, we used ultimate losses that are based on the average of the ultimate losses suggested by multiple approaches.
•
Page 2 shows the calculation of ultimate losses using the ILDA and the PLDA.
•
Page 3 shows the calculation of the ultimate losses using the BFILA and the BFPLA.
•
Pages 4A, 4B, and 4C show the calculation of discounted loss reserves at various confidence levels (25%, 40%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90% and 95%). Pages 4A, 4B, and 4C show the calculations using discount rates of 3.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively.
•
Pages 5A, 5B and 5C show how we estimated the prospective funding level for fiscal year 2013/2014. Pages 5A, 5B, and 5C apply discount rates of 3.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively.
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Attached Exhibits (continued)
Appendices
There are 4 pages to Exhibit II. Each page relates to the following: •
Page 1 shows how we estimated the loss reserves at June 30, 2013 before considering future investment income and the margins necessary to raise the confidence levels higher than the expected level. To estimate the loss reserves, we used ultimate losses that are based on the average of the ultimate losses suggested by multiple approaches.
•
Page 2 shows the calculation of ultimate losses using the ILDA and the PLDA.
•
Page 3 shows the calculation of the ultimate losses using the BFILA and the BFPLA.
•
Pages 4A, 4B, and 4C show the calculation of discounted loss reserves at various confidence levels (25%, 40%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90% and 95%). Pages 4A, 4B, and 4C show the calculations using discount rates of 3.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively.
Calculation of Loss Development Factors We prepared Appendices A and B to show the calculation of the historical incurred and paid loss development factors. • •
Appendix A – Incurred Loss Development Factors Appendix B – Paid Loss Development Factors.
Calculation of Discount Factors We prepared Appendix C to show the calculation of the discount factors using the average “risk free” rate of return for investments maturing during the expected claim payout period. There are three pages to Appendix C relating to calculations using discount rates of 3.0%, 3.5% and 4.5%. Reserve Reconciliation Appendices C – I reconcile undiscounted reserves between June 30, 2012 and June 30, 2013.
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SUMMARY EXHIBIT PAGE 1 OF 3
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 ESTIMATED RESERVES WORKERS' COMPENSATION ($AMOUNTS IN THOUSANDS)
Coverage
Expected Level (50% Confidence Level) Net Undiscounted Reserves (1)
---
3.0% Discount Rate Margin Amount on Undiscounted Reserves (2)
Credit for Investment Income @ 3.0% (3)
Estimated Funding @ 3.0% (4)=(1)+(2)-(3)
Workers' Compensation Claims - Excluding Paratransit
$43,756
$0
$5,351
$38,405
Workers' Compensation Claims - Paratransit
886
0
116
770
Total
$44,642
$0
Coverage
Expected Level (50% Confidence Level) Net Undiscounted Reserves (1)
---
3.5% Discount Rate Margin Amount on Undiscounted Reserves (2)
$39,175
Credit for Investment Income @ 3.5% (3)
Estimated Funding @ 3.5% (4)=(1)+(2)-(3)
Workers' Compensation Claims - Excluding Paratransit
$43,756
$0
$6,107
$37,649
Workers' Compensation Claims - Paratransit
886
0
134
752
Total
$44,642
$0
Coverage
Expected Level (50% Confidence Level) Net Undiscounted Reserves (1)
---
4.5% Discount Rate Margin Amount on Undiscounted Reserves (2)
$38,401
Credit for Investment Income @ 4.5% (3)
Estimated Funding @ 4.5% (4)=(1)+(2)-(3)
Workers' Compensation Claims - Excluding Paratransit
$43,756
$0
$7,526
$36,230
Workers' Compensation Claims - Paratransit
886
0
164
722
Total
$44,642
$0
Notes: (1) - From Exhibits I and II, Page 1, total of column (7). (2) - Per AMI calculations, based on Monte Carlo simulation. (3) - Per AMI calculation, based on similar factors used in Exhibits I and II, Page 4A, total of column (4). (4) =(1)+(2)-(3).
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$36,952
SUMMARY EXHIBIT PAGE 2 OF 3
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 ESTIMATED RESERVES WORKERS' COMPENSATION ($AMOUNTS IN THOUSANDS)
Coverage
75% Confidence Level ---3.0% Discount Rate Net Undiscounted Margin Amount Net Undiscounted Reserves at on Undiscounted Reserves at Expected Level Reserves 75% Conf. Level (1) (2) (3)=(1)+(2)
Credit for Investment Income @ 3.0% (4)
Estimated Funding @ 3.0% (5)=(3)-(4)
Workers' Compensation Claims - Excluding Paratransit
$43,756
$6,003
$49,759
$6,085
$43,674
Workers' Compensation Claims - Paratransit
886
122
1,008
132
876
Sub Total
$44,642
$6,125
$50,767
$6,217
$44,550
Credit for Investment Income @ 3.5% (4)
Estimated Funding @ 3.5% (5)=(3)-(4)
Coverage
75% Confidence Level ---3.5% Discount Rate Net Undiscounted Margin Amount Net Undiscounted Reserves at on Undiscounted Reserves at Expected Level Reserves 75% Conf. Level (1) (2) (3)=(1)+(2)
Workers' Compensation Claims - Excluding Paratransit
$43,756
$6,003
$49,759
$6,945
$42,814
Workers' Compensation Claims - Paratransit
886
122
1,008
153
855
Sub Total
$44,642
$6,125
$50,767
$7,098
$43,669
Credit for Investment Income @ 4.5% (4)
Estimated Funding @4.5% (5)=(3)-(4)
$8,558
$41,201
Coverage
Workers' Compensation Claims - Excluding Paratransit
75% Confidence Level ---4.5% Discount Rate Net Undiscounted Margin Amount Net Undiscounted Reserves at on Undiscounted Reserves at Expected Level Reserves 75% Conf. Level (1) (2) (3)=(1)+(2) $43,756
$6,003
$49,759
Workers' Compensation Claims - Paratransit
886
122
1,008
187
821
Sub Total
$44,642
$6,125
$50,767
$8,745
$42,022
Notes: (1) - From Exhibits I and II, Page 1, total of column (7). (2) - Per AMI calculations, based on Monte Carlo simulation. (3) = (1) + (2). (4) - Per AMI calculation, based on similar factors used in Exhibits I and II, Page 4A, column (4). (5) - From Exhibits I and II, Page 4A, column (5) at 75% confidence level.
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SUMMARY EXHIBIT PAGE 3 OF 3
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 EXPECTED AND RECOMMENDED FUNDING LEVELS FOR FISCAL YEAR 2013/2014 WORKERS' COMPENSATION ($AMOUNTS IN THOUSANDS)
Coverage
Projected Net Undiscounted Ultimate Losses (1)
75% Confidence Level --Margin Amount on Undiscounted Ultimate Losses (2)
3.0% Discount Rate Proj. Net Undiscounted Ultimate Losses @75% Conf. Level (3)=(1)+(2)
Credit for Investment Income @ 3.0% (4)
Recommended Funding @ 3.0% (5)=(3)-(4)
Workers' Compensation Claims - Excluding Paratrans
$10,276
$1,410
$11,686
$1,411
$10,275
Workers' Compensation Claims - Paratransit
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total
$10,276
$1,410
$11,686
$1,411
$10,275
Credit for Investment Income @ 3.5% (4)
Recommended Funding @ 3.5% (5)=(3)-(4)
Coverage
Projected Net Undiscounted Ultimate Losses (1)
75% Confidence Level --Margin Amount on Undiscounted Ultimate Losses (2)
3.5% Discount Rate Proj. Net Undiscounted Ultimate Losses @75% Conf. Level (3)=(1)+(2)
Workers' Compensation Claims - Excluding Paratrans
$10,276
$1,410
$11,686
$1,610
$10,076
Workers' Compensation Claims - Paratransit
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total
$10,276
$1,410
$11,686
$1,610
$10,076
Credit for Investment Income @ 4.5% (4)
Recommended Funding @ 4.5% (5)=(3)-(4)
Coverage
Projected Net Undiscounted Ultimate Losses (1)
75% Confidence Level --Margin Amount on Undiscounted Ultimate Losses (2)
4.5% Discount Rate Proj. Net Undiscounted Ultimate Losses @75% Conf. Level (3)=(1)+(2)
Workers' Compensation Claims - Excluding Paratrans
$10,276
$1,410
$11,686
$1,985
$9,701
Workers' Compensation Claims - Paratransit
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total
$10,276
$1,410
$11,686
$1,985
$9,701
Notes: (1) - From Exhibits I, Page 5A, column (4). (2) - Per AMI calculation, based on Monte Carlo simulations. (3) = (1) + (2). (4) - Per AMI calculation. (5) - From Exhibits I, Page 5A, column (15).
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AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT I PAGE 1 OF 5
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF TOTAL RESERVES WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ALL APPROACHES COMBINED ILDA ACCIDENT ULTIMATE YEARS* LOSSES (1)
PLDA ULTIMATE LOSSES (2)
BFILA ULTIMATE LOSSES (3)
BFPLA ULTIMATE LOSSES (4)
SELECTED ULTIMATE LOSSES (5)
PAID LOSSES @6/30/2013 (6)
LOSS RESERVES @6/30/2013 (7)
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,356 4,515 5,508 4,638 5,981 7,943 8,862 9,849 14,830 15,928 12,615 11,906 8,947 5,893 6,787 8,428 7,195 11,579 11,472 11,449 9,988 9,895
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,369 4,547 5,548 4,685 5,948 7,945 8,835 9,962 14,492 15,726 12,748 11,380 8,417 5,487 6,204 7,739 6,766 9,860 9,475 9,935 8,817 8,468
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,356 4,515 5,506 4,639 5,975 7,921 8,828 9,785 14,631 15,669 12,462 11,774 8,968 6,109 6,966 8,471 7,387 11,497 11,357 11,076 9,775 9,607
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,370 4,547 5,540 4,691 5,934 7,864 8,748 9,794 14,412 15,360 12,427 11,296 8,445 5,910 6,527 7,924 7,193 10,235 10,026 9,928 9,208 8,923
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,363 4,531 5,526 4,663 5,960 7,918 8,818 9,848 14,591 15,671 12,563 11,589 8,694 5,850 6,621 8,141 7,135 10,793 10,583 10,597 9,447 9,895
$1,699 2,079 2,825 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,190 5,016 4,533 4,343 4,506 5,461 4,580 5,775 7,654 8,438 9,434 13,582 14,575 11,642 10,225 7,317 4,617 5,063 6,162 5,126 6,744 5,739 4,990 3,099 1,004
$0 0 4 0 0 0 11 2 18 20 25 65 83 185 264 380 414 1,009 1,096 921 1,364 1,377 1,233 1,558 1,979 2,009 4,049 4,844 5,607 6,348 8,891
TOTAL
$230,513
$219,302
$229,223
$221,251
$225,746
$181,990
$43,756
Notes: (1), (2), (3) & (4) - Ultimate incurred losses calculated from Exhibit I, Pages 2 and 3. (5) - Selection based on the avergae of (1), (2), (3) & (4). (6) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (7) = (5) - (6). *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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EXHIBIT I PAGE 2 OF 5
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF LOSS RESERVES - LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
INCURRED LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH INCURRED LARGE LOSSES ACCIDENT LOSSES EXCLUDED YEARS* @6/30/2013 FROM DEVLMT (1) (1a) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,352 4,506 5,486 4,610 5,934 7,864 8,748 9,646 14,412 15,360 12,072 11,296 8,417 5,487 6,204 7,552 6,300 9,788 9,274 8,660 6,235 4,163
TOTAL
$208,315
$1,699 2,079 2,825 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,190 5,016 4,533 4,343 4,506 5,461 4,580 5,775 7,654 8,438 9,434 13,582 14,575 11,642 10,225 7,317 4,617 5,063 6,162 5,126 6,744 5,739 4,990 3,099 1,004
TOTAL
$181,990
ULTIMATE INCURRED LOSSES (3)
PAYROLL ($ IN '000) (4)
ESTIMATED LOSS RATE (5)
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.004 1.006 1.008 1.010 1.013 1.021 1.029 1.037 1.045 1.054 1.063 1.074 1.094 1.116 1.142 1.183 1.237 1.322 1.602
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,356 4,515 5,508 4,638 5,981 7,943 8,862 9,849 14,830 15,928 12,615 11,906 8,947 5,893 6,787 8,428 7,195 11,579 11,472 11,449 9,988 9,895
$149,284 146,907 134,053 127,294 124,073
0.078 0.078 0.085 0.078 0.080
$230,513
681,612
LOSS DEVLPMT FACTORS (7)
ULTIMATE INCURRED LOSSES (8)
PAYROLL ($ IN '000) (9)
ESTIMATED LOSS RATE (10)
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.006 1.009 1.016 1.023 1.030 1.038 1.047 1.056 1.067 1.079 1.095 1.113 1.140 1.170 1.202 1.256 1.320 1.462 1.651 1.991 2.845
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,369 4,547 5,548 4,685 5,948 7,945 8,835 9,962 14,492 15,726 12,748 11,380 8,417 5,487 6,204 7,739 6,766 9,860 9,475 9,935 8,817 8,468
$149,284 146,907 134,053 127,294 124,073
0.066 0.064 0.074 0.069 0.068
$219,302
$681,612
$0
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH PAID LARGE LOSSES ACCIDENT LOSSES EXCLUDED YEARS* @6/30/2013 FROM DEVLMT (6) (6a) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LOSS DEVLPMT FACTORS (2)
$0
Notes: (1), (4), (6), & (9) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (2) & (7) - Per County's historical loss patterns. (3) = (1) x (2) ; (8) = (6) x (7). If ultimate incurred losses in (9) are less than the incurred losses in (1), we used the incurred losses in (1). For the most recent year, we used the Loss Rate Approach. (5) = (3) / (4), (10) = (8) / (9). For the most recent year, it based on the trended average of prior years. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT I PAGE 3 OF 5
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE LOSSES - BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON APPROACH WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON INCURRED LOSS APPROACH ESTIMATED ACCIDENT LOSS PAYROLL YEARS* RATE ($ IN '000) (1) (2) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0.074 0.074 0.074 0.074 0.074
TOTAL
EXPECTED ULTIMATE LOSSES (3)
EXPECTED % OF LOSSES UNREPORTED (4)
IBNR RESERVES (5)
INCURRED LOSSES @6/30/2013 (6)
ULTIMATE INCURRED LOSSES (7)
149,284 146,907 134,053 127,294 124,073
$3,711 3,912 4,116 4,277 4,438 4,553 4,528 4,610 4,474 4,436 4,515 5,012 4,887 5,161 5,717 6,241 6,757 7,766 8,673 9,067 9,325 9,294 9,032 8,872 8,842 8,739 11,047 10,871 9,920 9,420 9,181
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 2.1% 2.8% 3.6% 4.3% 5.1% 5.9% 6.9% 8.6% 10.4% 12.4% 15.5% 19.2% 24.4% 37.6% 59.3%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 20 29 41 57 80 139 219 309 390 478 551 622 762 919 1,087 1,709 2,083 2,416 3,540 5,444
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,352 4,506 5,486 4,610 5,934 7,864 8,748 9,646 14,412 15,360 12,072 11,296 8,417 5,487 6,204 7,552 6,300 9,788 9,274 8,660 6,235 4,163
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,356 4,515 5,506 4,639 5,975 7,921 8,828 9,785 14,631 15,669 12,462 11,774 8,968 6,109 6,966 8,471 7,387 11,497 11,357 11,076 9,775 9,607
681,612
$211,390
$20,908
$208,315
$229,223
BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON PAID LOSS APPROACH ESTIMATED ACCIDENT LOSS PAYROLL YEARS* RATE ($ IN '000) (8) (9) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0.074 0.074 0.074 0.074 0.074
TOTAL
EXPECTED ULTIMATE LOSSES (10)
EXPECTED % OF LOSSES UNPAID (11)
LOSS RESERVES (12)
PAID LOSSES @6/30/2013 (13)
ULTIMATE INCURRED LOSSES (14)
149,284 146,907 134,053 127,294 124,073
$3,715 3,917 4,121 4,282 4,444 4,561 4,537 4,621 4,489 4,458 4,547 5,048 4,927 5,182 5,735 6,251 6,781 7,745 8,632 9,044 9,256 9,186 8,902 8,709 8,644 8,527 11,047 10,871 9,920 9,420 9,181
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 3.7% 4.5% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.7% 10.2% 12.3% 14.5% 16.8% 20.4% 24.2% 31.6% 39.4% 49.8% 64.9% 86.3%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 27 41 79 111 151 210 281 360 486 632 785 940 1,128 1,293 1,464 1,762 2,067 3,491 4,287 4,938 6,109 7,919
$1,699 2,079 2,825 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,190 5,016 4,533 4,343 4,506 5,461 4,580 5,775 7,654 8,438 9,434 13,582 14,575 11,642 10,225 7,317 4,617 5,063 6,162 5,126 6,744 5,739 4,990 3,099 1,004
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,370 4,547 5,540 4,691 5,934 7,864 8,748 9,794 14,412 15,360 12,427 11,296 8,445 5,910 6,527 7,924 7,193 10,235 10,026 9,928 9,208 8,923
681,612
$210,699
$38,579
$181,990
$221,251
Notes: (1) & (8) - Per AMI's selections. (2), (6), (9) & (13) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (3) = (1) x (2); (10) = (8) x (9). (4) = (1 - (1/ILDF)); (11) = (1 - (1/PLDF)). (5) = (3) x (4); (12) = (10) x (11). (7) = (5) + (6); (14) = (12) + (13). If ultimate incurred losses in (14) are less than the incurred losses in (6), we used the incurred losses in (6). *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT I PAGE 4A OF 5
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF DISCOUNTED RESERVES @ 3.0% WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ACCIDENT YEARS*
NET TOTAL RESERVES (1)
DISCOUNT FACTORS (2)
NET TOTAL DISCOUNTED RESERVES (3)
FUTURE INVESTMENT INCOME (4)
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$0 0 4 0 0 0 11 2 18 20 25 65 83 185 264 380 414 1,009 1,096 921 1,364 1,377 1,233 1,558 1,979 2,009 4,049 4,844 5,607 6,348 8,891
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.985 0.966 0.954 0.952 0.942 0.931 0.921 0.911 0.900 0.891 0.882 0.876 0.870 0.869 0.866 0.860 0.862 0.860 0.870 0.873 0.876 0.882 0.888
$0 0 4 0 0 0 11 2 18 19 24 62 78 172 243 346 372 899 967 807 1,187 1,197 1,068 1,340 1,705 1,728 3,523 4,227 4,911 5,598 7,897
$0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 13 21 34 42 110 129 114 177 180 165 218 274 281 526 617 696 750 994
TOTAL
$43,756
$38,405
$5,351
ESTIMATING DISCOUNTED RESERVES AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONFIDENCE LEVELS NET DISCOUNTED RESERVES (5) 25% 40% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
$27,652 $34,565 $38,405 $39,058 $39,749 $40,440 $42,246 $43,674 $46,426 $49,352 $52,462 $55,768
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit I, Page 1, Column (7). (2) - Per AMI calculations, see Appendix C, Page 1. (3) = (1) x (2). (4) = (1) - (3). Excludes investment income on the margin. (5) - Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Includes the effect of investment income on the margin. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT I PAGE 4B OF 5
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF DISCOUNTED RESERVES @ 3.5% WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ACCIDENT YEARS*
NET TOTAL RESERVES (1)
DISCOUNT FACTORS (2)
NET TOTAL DISCOUNTED RESERVES (3)
FUTURE INVESTMENT INCOME (4)
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$0 0 4 0 0 0 11 2 18 20 25 65 83 185 264 380 414 1,009 1,096 921 1,364 1,377 1,233 1,558 1,979 2,009 4,049 4,844 5,607 6,348 8,891
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.983 0.961 0.946 0.944 0.933 0.920 0.908 0.897 0.885 0.875 0.865 0.858 0.852 0.851 0.847 0.841 0.842 0.841 0.852 0.855 0.859 0.865 0.872
$0 0 4 0 0 0 11 2 18 19 24 61 77 170 240 341 366 882 948 791 1,162 1,171 1,044 1,310 1,666 1,689 3,449 4,141 4,814 5,492 7,757
$0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 6 15 24 39 48 127 148 130 202 206 189 248 313 320 600 703 793 856 1,134
TOTAL
$43,756
$37,649
$6,107
ESTIMATING DISCOUNTED RESERVES AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONFIDENCE LEVELS NET DISCOUNTED RESERVES (5) 25% 40% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
$27,107 $33,884 $37,649 $38,289 $38,967 $39,644 $41,414 $42,814 $45,512 $48,380 $51,429 $54,670
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit I, Page 1, Column (7). (2) - Per AMI calculations, see Appendix C, Page 1. (3) = (1) x (2). (4) = (1) - (3). Excludes investment income on the margin. (5) - Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Includes the effect of investment income on the margin. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT I PAGE 4C OF 5
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF DISCOUNTED RESERVES @ 4.5% WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ACCIDENT YEARS*
NET TOTAL RESERVES (1)
DISCOUNT FACTORS (2)
NET TOTAL DISCOUNTED RESERVES (3)
FUTURE INVESTMENT INCOME (4)
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$0 0 4 0 0 0 11 2 18 20 25 65 83 185 264 380 414 1,009 1,096 921 1,364 1,377 1,233 1,558 1,979 2,009 4,049 4,844 5,607 6,348 8,891
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.978 0.950 0.932 0.929 0.916 0.900 0.885 0.871 0.856 0.844 0.832 0.824 0.816 0.815 0.811 0.803 0.806 0.804 0.818 0.822 0.826 0.834 0.843
$0 0 4 0 0 0 11 2 18 19 23 60 76 166 234 331 354 851 912 759 1,114 1,123 1,000 1,252 1,594 1,615 3,312 3,979 4,632 5,295 7,494
$0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 19 30 49 60 158 184 162 250 254 233 306 385 394 737 865 975 1,053 1,397
TOTAL
$43,756
$36,230
$7,526
ESTIMATING DISCOUNTED RESERVES AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONFIDENCE LEVELS NET DISCOUNTED RESERVES (5) 25% 40% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
$26,086 $32,607 $36,230 $36,846 $37,498 $38,150 $39,853 $41,201 $43,797 $46,557 $49,491 $52,610
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit I, Page 1, Column (7). (2) - Per AMI calculations, see Appendix C, Page 2. (3) = (1) x (2). (4) = (1) - (3). Excludes investment income on the margin. (5) - Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Includes the effect of investment income on the margin. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
EXHIBIT I PAGE 5A OF 5
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF PROJECTED LOSSES @ 3.0% WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
SECTION 1 - PROJECTED ULTIMATE LOSSES SELECTED ACCIDENT ULTIMATE YEAR* LOSSES (1)
PAYROLL ($ IN '000) (2)
LOSS RATE (3)
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,531 5,526 4,663 5,960 7,918 8,818 9,848 14,591 15,671 12,563 11,589 8,694 5,850 6,621 8,141 7,135 10,793 10,583 10,597 9,447 9,895
149,284 146,907 134,053 127,294 124,073
0.0720 0.0720 0.0790 0.0740 0.0800
(PROJ.) 2013/2014
$10,276
127,175
0.0808
SECTION 2 - DISCOUNTED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS FOR PROSPECTIVE YEAR DISCOUNTED ACCIDENT PROJECTED DISCOUNT PROJECTED YEAR* LOSSES FACTORS LOSSES (4) (5) (6) 2014
$10,276
0.879
FUTURE INVESTMENT INCOME (7)
$9,035
$1,241
SECTION 3A - DISCOUNTED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS ACCIDENT YEAR*
25% LEVEL (8)
40% LEVEL (9)
50% LEVEL (10)
55% LEVEL (11)
60% LEVEL (12)
65% LEVEL (13)
2014
$6,505
$8,132
$9,035
$9,189
$9,351
$9,514
SECTION 3B - DISCOUNTED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS ACCIDENT YEAR*
70% LEVEL (14)
75% LEVEL (15)
80% LEVEL (16)
85% LEVEL (17)
90% LEVEL (18)
95% LEVEL (19)
2014
$9,939
$10,275
$10,922
$11,610
$12,342
$13,120
Notes: (1) - Per AMI calculations, see Exhibit I, Page 1, Column (5). (2) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (3) = (1) / (2). For projected years, it is based on the trended average of prior years. (4) = (1); (5) - Per Appendix C, Page 1, Column (7). (6) = (4) x (5); (7)= (4) - (6). (10) = (6). (8), (9), (11) - (19) - Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
N:\Alameda County Transit\2013\WC\WC2013_EXCL_PARATRANSIT\
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EXHIBIT I PAGE 5B OF 5
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF PROJECTED LOSSES @ 3.5% WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
SECTION 1 - PROJECTED ULTIMATE LOSSES SELECTED ACCIDENT ULTIMATE YEAR* LOSSES (1)
PAYROLL ($ IN '000) (2)
LOSS RATE (3)
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,531 5,526 4,663 5,960 7,918 8,818 9,848 14,591 15,671 12,563 11,589 8,694 5,850 6,621 8,141 7,135 10,793 10,583 10,597 9,447 9,895
149,284 146,907 134,053 127,294 124,073
0.0720 0.0720 0.0790 0.0740 0.0800
(PROJ.) 2013/2014
$10,276
127,175
0.0808
SECTION 2 - DISCOUNTED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS FOR PROSPECTIVE YEAR DISCOUNTED ACCIDENT PROJECTED DISCOUNT PROJECTED YEAR* LOSSES FACTORS LOSSES (4) (5) (6) 2014
$10,276
0.862
FUTURE INVESTMENT INCOME (7)
$8,860
$1,416
SECTION 3A - DISCOUNTED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS ACCIDENT YEAR*
25% LEVEL (8)
40% LEVEL (9)
50% LEVEL (10)
55% LEVEL (11)
60% LEVEL (12)
65% LEVEL (13)
2014
$6,379
$7,974
$8,860
$9,011
$9,170
$9,330
SECTION 3B - DISCOUNTED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS ACCIDENT YEAR*
70% LEVEL (14)
75% LEVEL (15)
80% LEVEL (16)
85% LEVEL (17)
90% LEVEL (18)
95% LEVEL (19)
2014
$9,746
$10,076
$10,710
$11,385
$12,103
$12,866
Notes: (1) - Per AMI calculations, see Exhibit I, Page 1, Column (5). (2) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (3) = (1) / (2). For projected years, it is based on the trended average of prior years. (4) = (1); (5) - Per Appendix C, Page 1, Column (7). (6) = (4) x (5); (7)= (4) - (6). (10) = (6). (8), (9), (11) - (19) - Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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EXHIBIT I PAGE 5C OF 5
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF PROJECTED LOSSES @ 4.5% WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
SECTION 1 - PROJECTED ULTIMATE LOSSES SELECTED ACCIDENT ULTIMATE YEAR* LOSSES (1)
PAYROLL ($ IN '000) (2)
LOSS RATE (3)
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,531 5,526 4,663 5,960 7,918 8,818 9,848 14,591 15,671 12,563 11,589 8,694 5,850 6,621 8,141 7,135 10,793 10,583 10,597 9,447 9,895
149,284 146,907 134,053 127,294 124,073
0.0720 0.0720 0.0790 0.0740 0.0800
(PROJ.) 2013/2014
$10,276
127,175
0.0808
SECTION 2 - DISCOUNTED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS FOR PROSPECTIVE YEAR DISCOUNTED ACCIDENT PROJECTED DISCOUNT PROJECTED YEAR* LOSSES FACTORS LOSSES (4) (5) (6) 2014
$10,276
0.830
$8,531
FUTURE INVESTMENT INCOME (7) $1,745
SECTION 3A - DISCOUNTED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVEL ACCIDENT YEAR*
25% LEVEL (8)
40% LEVEL (9)
50% LEVEL (10)
55% LEVEL (11)
60% LEVEL (12)
65% LEVEL (13)
2014
$6,142
$7,678
$8,531
$8,676
$8,830
$8,983
SECTION 3B - DISCOUNTED FUNDING REQUIREMENTS AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS ACCIDENT YEAR*
70% LEVEL (14)
75% LEVEL (15)
80% LEVEL (16)
85% LEVEL (17)
90% LEVEL (18)
95% LEVEL (19)
2014
$9,384
$9,701
$10,313
$10,963
$11,654
$12,388
Notes: (1) - Per AMI calculations, see Exhibit I, Page 1, Column (5). (2) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (3) = (1) / (2). For projected years, it is based on the average of five prior years. (4) = (1); (5) - Per Appendix C, Page 2, Column (7). (6) = (4) x (5); (7)= (4) - (6). (10) = (6). (8), (9), (11) - (19) - Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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EXHIBIT II PAGE 1 OF 4
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF TOTAL RESERVES WORKERS' COMPENSATION - PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ALL APPROACHES COMBINED ILDA ULTIMATE ACCIDENT YEARS* LOSSES (1)
PLDA ULTIMATE LOSSES (2)
BFILA ULTIMATE LOSSES (3)
BFPLA ULTIMATE LOSSES (4)
SELECTED ULTIMATE LOSSES (5)
PAID LOSSES @6/30/2013 (6)
LOSS RESERVES @6/30/2013 (7)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$32 674 83 121 122 287 66 0 1 228 1,429 135 106 448
$34 697 86 126 128 272 71 0 1 204 1,254 121 86 498
$32 667 88 125 126 283 74 12 14 221 1,285 134 104 454
$34 679 98 134 136 272 87 26 27 204 1,251 124 86 485
$33 679 89 127 128 279 75 10 11 214 1,305 129 96 471
$32 660 81 117 117 204 62 0 1 161 950 83 42 250
$1 19 8 10 11 75 13 10 10 53 355 46 54 221
TOTAL
$3,732
$3,578
$3,619
$3,643
$3,646
$2,760
$886
Notes: (1), (2), (3) & (4) - Ultimate incurred losses calculated from Exhibit II, Pages 2 and 3. (5) - Selection based on the avergae of (1), (2), (3) & (4). (6) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT (7) = (5) - (6). *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
N:\Alameda County Transit\2013\WC\WC2013_PARATRANSIT\SELECTED 8/5/2013 1:33 PM
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EXHIBIT II PAGE 2 OF 4
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF LOSS RESERVES - LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH WORKERS' COMPENSATION - PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
INCURRED LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH INCURRED LOSS ACCIDENT LOSSES DEVLPMT YEARS* @6/30/2013 FACTORS (1) (2) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$32 660 81 117 117 272 62 0 1 204 1,251 114 86 339
TOTAL
$3,336
1.013 1.021 1.029 1.037 1.045 1.054 1.063 1.074 1.094 1.116 1.142 1.183 1.237 1.322
PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT APPROACH PAID LOSS ACCIDENT LOSSES DEVLPMT YEARS* @6/30/2013 FACTORS (6) (7) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$32 660 81 117 117 204 62 0 1 161 950 83 42 250
TOTAL
$2,760
1.047 1.056 1.067 1.079 1.095 1.113 1.140 1.170 1.202 1.256 1.320 1.462 1.651 1.991
ULTIMATE INCURRED LOSSES (3)
PAYROLL ($ IN '000) (4)
ESTIMATED LOSS RATE (5)
$32 674 83 121 122 287 66 0 1 228 1,429 135 106 448
2,295 2,247 2,030
0.059 0.047 0.221
$3,732
6,573
ULTIMATE INCURRED LOSSES (8)
PAYROLL ($ IN '000) (9)
ESTIMATED LOSS RATE (10)
$34 697 86 126 128 272 71 0 1 204 1,254 121 86 498
2,295 2,247 2,030
0.053 0.038 0.245
$3,578
$6,573
Notes: (1), (4), (6) & (9) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (2) & (7) - Per County's historical loss patterns. (3) = (1) x (2); (8) = (6) x (7). If ultimate incurred losses in (9) are less than the incurred losses in (1), we used the incurred losses in (1). (5) = (3) / (4), (10) = (8) / (9). For the most recent year, it based on the average of prior years. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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EXHIBIT II PAGE 3 OF 4
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF ULTIMATE LOSSES - BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON APPROACH WORKERS' COMPENSATION - PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON INCURRED LOSS APPROACH ESTIMATED EXPECTED ACCIDENT LOSS PAYROLL ULTIMATE YEARS* RATE ($ IN '000) LOSSES (1) (2) (3) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.056 0.043 0.233
TOTAL
2,295 2,247 2,030
$32 353 263 228 206 220 198 173 154 161 277 129 96 473
6,573
$2,963
BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON PAID LOSS APPROACH ESTIMATED ACCIDENT LOSS PAYROLL YEARS* RATE ($ IN '000) (8) (9) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TOTAL
0.056 0.043 0.233
EXPECTED % OF LOSSES UNREPORTED (4)
IBNR RESERVES (5)
INCURRED LOSSES @6/30/2013 (6)
ULTIMATE INCURRED LOSSES (7)
1.3% 2.1% 2.8% 3.6% 4.3% 5.1% 5.9% 6.9% 8.6% 10.4% 12.4% 15.5% 19.2% 24.4%
$0 7 7 8 9 11 12 12 13 17 34 20 18 115
$32 660 81 117 117 272 62 0 1 204 1,251 114 86 339
$32 667 88 125 126 283 74 12 14 221 1,285 134 104 454
$283
$3,336
$3,619
EXPECTED ULTIMATE LOSSES (10)
EXPECTED % OF LOSSES UNPAID (11)
LOSS RESERVES (12)
PAID LOSSES @6/30/2013 (13)
ULTIMATE INCURRED LOSSES (14)
2,295 2,247 2,030
$34 366 272 236 214 224 202 177 157 162 261 129 96 473
4.5% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.7% 10.2% 12.3% 14.5% 16.8% 20.4% 24.2% 31.6% 39.4% 49.8%
$2 19 17 17 19 23 25 26 26 33 63 41 38 235
$32 660 81 117 117 204 62 0 1 161 950 83 42 250
$34 679 98 134 136 272 87 26 27 204 1,251 124 86 485
6,573
$3,003
$584
$2,760
$3,643
Notes: (1) & (8) - Per AMI's selections. (2), (6), (9) & (13) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (3) = (1) x (2); (10) = (8) x (9). (4) = (1 - (1/ILDF)); (11) = (1 - (1/PLDF)). (5) = (3) x (4); (12) = (10) x (11). (7) = (5) + (6); (14) = (12) + (13). If ultimate incurred losses in (14) are less than the incurred losses in (6), we used the incurred losses in (6). *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
N:\Alameda County Transit\2013\WC\WC2013_PARATRANSIT\BFA 8/5/2013 1:33 PM
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ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF DISCOUNTED RESERVES @ 3.0% WORKERS' COMPENSATION - PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ACCIDENT YEARS*
NET TOTAL RESERVES (1)
DISCOUNT FACTORS (2)
NET TOTAL DISCOUNTED RESERVES (3)
FUTURE INVESTMENT INCOME (4)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$1 19 8 10 11 75 13 10 10 53 355 46 54 221
0.911 0.900 0.891 0.882 0.876 0.870 0.869 0.866 0.860 0.862 0.860 0.870 0.873 0.876
$1 17 7 9 10 65 11 9 9 46 305 40 47 194
$0 2 1 1 1 10 2 1 1 7 50 6 7 27
TOTAL
$886
$770
$116
ESTIMATING DISCOUNTED RESERVES AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONFIDENCE LEVELS NET DISCOUNTED RESERVES (5) 25% 40% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
$554 $693 $770 $783 $797 $811 $847 $876 $931 $989 $1,052 $1,118
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit II, Page 1, Column (7). (2) - Per AMI calculations, see Appendix H, Page 1. (3) = (1) x (2). (4) = (1) - (3). Excludes investment income on the margin. (5) - Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Includes the effect of investment income on the margin. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year. N:\Alameda County Transit\2013\WC\WC2013_PARATRANSIT\
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EXHIBIT II PAGE 4A OF 4
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF DISCOUNTED RESERVES @ 3.5% WORKERS' COMPENSATION - PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ACCIDENT YEARS*
NET TOTAL RESERVES (1)
DISCOUNT FACTORS (2)
NET TOTAL DISCOUNTED RESERVES (3)
FUTURE INVESTMENT INCOME (4)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$1 19 8 10 11 75 13 10 10 53 355 46 54 221
0.897 0.885 0.875 0.865 0.858 0.852 0.851 0.847 0.841 0.842 0.841 0.852 0.855 0.859
$1 17 7 9 9 64 11 8 8 45 298 39 46 190
$0 2 1 1 2 11 2 2 2 8 57 7 8 31
TOTAL
$886
$752
$134
ESTIMATING DISCOUNTED RESERVES AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONFIDENCE LEVELS NET DISCOUNTED RESERVES (5) 25% 40% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
$541 $677 $752 $765 $778 $792 $827 $855 $909 $966 $1,027 $1,092
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit II, Page 1, Column (7). (2) - Per AMI calculations, see Appendix H, Page 1. (3) = (1) x (2). (4) = (1) - (3). Excludes investment income on the margin. (5) - Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Includes the effect of investment income on the margin. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
N:\Alameda County Transit\2013\WC\WC2013_PARATRANSIT\
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EXHIBIT II PAGE 4B OF 4
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF DISCOUNTED RESERVES @ 4.5% WORKERS' COMPENSATION - PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ACCIDENT YEARS*
NET TOTAL RESERVES (1)
DISCOUNT FACTORS (2)
NET TOTAL DISCOUNTED RESERVES (3)
FUTURE INVESTMENT INCOME (4)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$1 19 8 10 11 75 13 10 10 53 355 46 54 221
0.871 0.856 0.844 0.832 0.824 0.816 0.815 0.811 0.803 0.806 0.804 0.818 0.822 0.826
$1 16 7 8 9 61 11 8 8 43 285 38 44 183
$0 3 1 2 2 14 2 2 2 10 70 8 10 38
TOTAL
$886
$722
$164
ESTIMATING DISCOUNTED RESERVES AT VARIOUS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONFIDENCE LEVELS NET DISCOUNTED RESERVES (5) 25% 40% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
$520 $650 $722 $734 $747 $760 $794 $821 $873 $928 $986 $1,048
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit II, Page 1, Column (7). (2) - Per AMI calculations, see Appendix H, Page 2. (3) = (1) x (2). (4) = (1) - (3). Excludes investment income on the margin. (5) - Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Includes the effect of investment income on the margin. *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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EXHIBIT II PAGE 4C OF 4
APPENDIX A
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW CALCULATION OF THE LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS WORKERS' COMPENSATION AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) UNLIMITED LOSSES AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSE INCURRED LOSS DEVELOPMENT ACCIDENT YEARS*
12
24
3,507 3,728 3,195 2,803 2,665 2,895 3,333 3,362 3,165 4,150 6,226 3,693 3,931 2,959 2,843 2,952 4,403 3,740 5,195 3,610 3,865 4,703 4,163
3,789 4,443 2,890 3,540 3,166 4,140 5,055 5,632 6,000 8,226 8,482 6,820 6,993 6,165 4,272 4,945 6,202 4,956 6,850 6,173 7,345 6,235
4,262 4,221 3,060 4,273 3,482 4,820 5,308 6,582 7,763 9,905 10,847 9,172 9,328 7,372 4,951 5,497 7,086 6,383 7,970 8,295 8,999
4,242 4,289 3,207 4,342 3,686 4,964 6,114 7,403 8,428 11,286 13,237 10,719 10,085 8,014 5,044 5,644 7,192 6,467 8,740 9,359
4,193 4,226 3,527 4,465 3,718 4,979 6,373 7,687 9,344 12,479 14,034 11,302 10,588 8,040 5,182 5,673 7,400 6,359 9,902
4,238 4,359 3,847 4,333 3,886 5,239 6,723 8,091 10,078 13,783 14,842 12,032 10,479 7,994 5,033 5,767 7,707 7,550
4,166 4,395 3,922 4,560 4,101 5,387 7,101 8,510 10,443 13,906 15,813 11,981 10,364 8,192 5,050 6,028 7,756
ACCIDENT YEAR*
12 TO 24
24 TO 36
36 TO 48
48 TO 60
60 TO 72
72 TO 84
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1.080 1.192 0.905 1.263 1.188 1.430 1.517 1.675 1.896 1.982 1.362 1.847 1.779 2.083 1.503 1.675 1.409 1.325 1.319 1.710 1.900 1.326
1.125 0.950 1.059 1.207 1.100 1.164 1.050 1.169 1.294 1.204 1.279 1.345 1.334 1.196 1.159 1.112 1.143 1.288 1.164 1.344 1.225
0.995 1.016 1.048 1.016 1.059 1.030 1.152 1.125 1.086 1.139 1.220 1.169 1.081 1.087 1.019 1.027 1.015 1.013 1.097 1.128
0.988 0.985 1.100 1.028 1.009 1.003 1.042 1.038 1.109 1.106 1.060 1.054 1.050 1.003 1.027 1.005 1.029 0.983 1.133
1.011 1.031 1.091 0.970 1.045 1.052 1.055 1.053 1.079 1.104 1.058 1.065 0.990 0.994 0.971 1.017 1.041 1.187
1.040 1.037 1.048 1.020 1.010 1.046 1.237
1.045 1.041 1.082 1.017 1.003 1.036 1.183
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
36
48
60
72
84
96
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS 132 144 156
108
120
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
252
264
276
4,297 4,372 4,092 4,672 4,312 5,486 7,429 8,646 10,248 14,145 15,902 12,518 10,667 7,960 4,994 6,206
4,236 4,343 4,322 4,897 4,427 5,653 7,463 8,422 10,354 14,404 15,512 12,682 10,579 8,042 5,487
4,280 4,333 4,450 5,126 4,505 5,623 8,506 8,713 10,252 14,279 15,914 12,767 10,805 8,479
4,444 4,330 4,769 5,453 4,505 5,623 8,506 8,720 9,654 14,380 16,206 12,841 11,568
4,479 4,358 4,840 5,453 4,505 5,623 8,506 8,721 9,511 14,564 16,482 13,012
4,498 4,347 4,840 5,453 4,505 5,623 8,820 8,654 9,587 14,272 17,940
4,535 4,347 4,840 5,453 4,505 5,794 8,656 8,563 9,816 14,552
4,535 4,347 4,840 5,453 4,754 5,802 8,670 8,567 10,723
4,535 4,347 4,840 5,974 4,817 5,850 8,743 8,779
4,535 4,347 4,840 6,428 4,854 5,870 8,501
4,535 4,376 4,631 6,508 4,843 5,934
4,545 4,292 4,631 6,119 4,832
4,595 4,308 4,630 7,137
4,560 4,262 4,669
4,560 4,352
4,623
84 TO 96
96 TO 108
108 TO 120
120 TO 132
132 TO 144
144 TO 156
156 TO 168
168 TO 180
180 TO 192
192 TO 204
204 TO 216
216 TO 228
228 TO 240
240 TO 252
252 TO 264
264 TO 276
0.983 1.008 1.019 1.052 1.055 1.028 1.056 1.052 1.036 1.009 1.065 0.996 0.989 1.025 1.003 1.045 1.006
1.031 0.995 1.043 1.025 1.051 1.018 1.046 1.016 0.981 1.017 1.006 1.045 1.029 0.972 0.989 1.029
0.986 0.993 1.056 1.048 1.027 1.030 1.005 0.974 1.010 1.018 0.975 1.013 0.992 1.010 1.099
1.010 0.998 1.030 1.047 1.018 0.995 1.140 1.035 0.990 0.991 1.026 1.007 1.021 1.054
1.038 0.999 1.072 1.064 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.942 1.007 1.018 1.006 1.071
1.008 1.006 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.985 1.013 1.017 1.013
1.004 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.037 0.992 1.008 0.980 1.088
1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.030 0.981 0.989 1.024 1.020
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.055 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.092
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.096 1.013 1.008 1.008 1.025
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.076 1.008 1.003 0.972
1.000 1.007 0.957 1.012 0.998 1.011
1.002 0.981 1.000 0.940 0.998
1.011 1.004 1.000 1.166
0.992 0.989 1.008
1.000 1.021
1.014
1.025 1.025 1.018 1.011 1.012 1.023 1.142
1.018 1.019 0.997 1.016 1.008 1.020 1.116
1.016 1.013 1.034 1.005 1.002 1.019 1.094
1.026 1.019 1.027 1.018 1.007 1.010 1.074
1.017 1.019 1.032 1.010 1.000 1.009 1.063
1.005 1.006 1.014 1.009 1.003 1.008 1.054
1.010 1.004 1.025 1.012 1.003 1.008 1.045
1.005 1.005 1.011 1.011 1.005 1.008 1.037
1.017 1.008 1.031 1.019 1.012 1.008 1.029
1.019 1.009 1.014 1.015 1.025 1.008 1.021
1.008 1.002 0.994 1.004 1.017 1.003 1.013
0.998 1.004 1.007 1.005 1.000 1.002 1.010
0.984 0.993 0.979 0.993 1.000 1.002 1.008
1.045 1.008 1.057
0.996 0.992 0.996
1.011
1.014
1.004 1.002 1.006
1.000 1.002 1.004
1.000 1.001 1.002
1.005 1.001 1.001
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS
AVERAGE 1.517 1.186 1.076 AVERAGE EXCL HI/LO 1.519 1.190 1.073 3 YR AVG. 1.645 1.244 1.079 5 YR AVG EXCL HI/LO 1.454 1.226 1.046 LAST YR SELECTED 1.533 1.210 1.034 SELECTED 1.534 1.212 1.069 CUMULATIVE 2.457 1.602 1.322 *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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276 TO ULT.
1.000
APPENDIX B
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW CALCULATION OF THE LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS WORKERS' COMPENSATION AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) UNLIMITED LOSSES AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSE PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT ACCIDENT YEARS*
12
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1,227 1,326 1,050 893 1,082 1,512 1,710 1,656 1,994 2,087 2,528 1,780 1,603 1,563 949 861 1,016 993 1,337 1,048 1,188 1,121 1,004
DEVELOPMENT MONTHS 132 144 156
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
168
180
2,368 2,436 1,646 1,934 2,040 2,874 3,494 4,222 4,207 5,384 5,795 4,861 4,276 3,379 2,163 2,209 2,810 2,276 3,454 2,938 3,481 3,099
3,021 2,912 2,221 2,841 2,688 3,747 4,407 5,208 5,808 7,355 7,874 6,908 6,046 4,747 2,946 2,905 3,982 3,413 4,758 4,737 5,240
3,322 3,466 2,500 3,445 3,105 4,228 5,022 6,278 6,952 9,005 9,856 8,250 7,385 5,525 3,525 3,496 4,636 4,180 5,923 5,782
3,741 3,738 2,900 3,767 3,374 4,606 5,429 6,853 7,894 10,294 10,818 9,160 8,162 6,094 3,893 4,102 5,302 4,733 6,827
3,874 3,980 3,416 4,003 3,568 4,839 5,957 7,319 8,636 11,315 11,802 9,670 8,625 6,638 4,197 4,476 5,851 6,076
3,982 4,134 3,669 4,225 3,755 5,051 6,257 7,713 9,069 11,816 12,562 10,345 8,816 6,757 4,325 4,802 6,323
4,029 4,249 3,885 4,331 4,002 5,240 6,543 7,951 9,382 12,098 13,215 11,090 9,518 6,993 4,457 5,064
4,160 4,280 3,963 4,663 4,145 5,327 6,845 8,064 9,434 12,506 13,387 11,576 9,701 7,190 4,617
4,220 4,242 4,162 4,928 4,244 5,379 7,085 8,040 9,578 12,620 14,066 11,970 9,950 7,379
4,381 4,261 4,357 5,110 4,244 5,379 7,085 8,182 9,098 13,058 14,455 12,223 10,429
4,434 4,275 4,505 5,110 4,244 5,379 7,085 8,178 9,284 13,236 14,759 12,525
4,453 4,287 4,505 5,110 4,244 5,379 7,473 8,332 9,374 13,427 15,241
4,486 4,287 4,505 5,110 4,244 5,582 7,616 8,357 9,486 13,664
4,486 4,287 4,505 5,110 4,648 5,644 7,699 8,394 10,245
192 4,486 4,287 4,505 5,554 4,557 5,687 7,778 8,470
204 4,486 4,287 4,634 5,909 4,586 5,739 7,937
216 4,486 4,345 4,670 5,974 4,611 5,775
228 4,486 4,339 4,671 6,027 4,675
240 4,604 4,341 4,669 6,644
252 4,604 4,342 4,669
264 4,605 4,343
276 4,606
LOSS DEVELOPMENT FACTORS ACCIDENT YEAR*
12 TO 24
24 TO 36
36 TO 48
48 TO 60
60 TO 72
72 TO 84
84 TO 96
96 TO 108
108 TO 120
120 TO 132
132 TO 144
144 TO 156
156 TO 168
168 TO 180
180 TO 192
192 TO 204
204 TO 216
216 TO 228
228 TO 240
240 TO 252
252 TO 264
264 TO 276
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1.930 1.837 1.568 2.166 1.885 1.901 2.043 2.550 2.110 2.580 2.292 2.731 2.667 2.162 2.279 2.566 2.766 2.292 2.583 2.803 2.930 2.764
1.276 1.195 1.349 1.469 1.318 1.304 1.261 1.234 1.381 1.366 1.359 1.421 1.414 1.405 1.362 1.315 1.417 1.500 1.378 1.612 1.505
1.100 1.190 1.126 1.213 1.155 1.128 1.140 1.205 1.197 1.224 1.252 1.194 1.221 1.164 1.197 1.203 1.164 1.225 1.245 1.221
1.126 1.078 1.160 1.093 1.087 1.089 1.081 1.092 1.136 1.143 1.098 1.110 1.105 1.103 1.104 1.173 1.144 1.132 1.153
1.036 1.065 1.178 1.063 1.057 1.051 1.097 1.068 1.094 1.099 1.091 1.056 1.057 1.089 1.078 1.091 1.104 1.284
1.028 1.039 1.074 1.055 1.052 1.044 1.050 1.054 1.050 1.044 1.064 1.070 1.022 1.018 1.030 1.073 1.081
1.012 1.028 1.059 1.025 1.066 1.037 1.046 1.031 1.035 1.024 1.052 1.072 1.080 1.035 1.031 1.055
1.033 1.007 1.020 1.077 1.036 1.017 1.046 1.014 1.006 1.034 1.013 1.044 1.019 1.028 1.036
1.014 0.991 1.050 1.057 1.024 1.010 1.035 0.997 1.015 1.009 1.051 1.034 1.026 1.026
1.038 1.004 1.047 1.037 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.018 0.950 1.035 1.028 1.021 1.048
1.012 1.003 1.034 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.020 1.014 1.021 1.025
1.004 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.055 1.019 1.010 1.014 1.033
1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.038 1.019 1.003 1.012 1.018
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.095 1.011 1.011 1.004 1.080
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.087 0.980 1.008 1.010 1.009
1.000 1.000 1.029 1.064 1.006 1.009 1.020
1.000 1.014 1.008 1.011 1.005 1.006
1.000 0.999 1.000 1.009 1.014
1.026 1.000 1.000 1.102
1.000 1.000 1.000
1.000 1.000
1.000
1.116 1.115 1.143 1.143 1.131 1.129 1.651
1.092 1.084 1.160 1.095 1.084 1.108 1.462
1.050 1.050 1.061 1.042 1.043 1.051 1.320
1.043 1.043 1.040 1.054 1.054 1.045 1.256
1.029 1.027 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.202
1.024 1.024 1.029 1.029 1.027 1.026 1.170
1.017 1.021 1.032 1.028 1.010 1.025 1.140
1.011 1.010 1.020 1.018 1.011 1.016 1.113
1.013 1.009 1.019 1.022 1.020 1.015 1.095
1.010 1.007 1.011 1.016 1.014 1.011 1.079
1.022 1.015 1.032 1.034 1.024 1.010 1.067
1.012 1.005 1.009 1.009 1.017 1.009 1.056
1.018 1.013 1.012 1.019 1.022 1.009 1.047
1.007 1.008 1.007 1.008 1.008 1.008 1.038
1.004 1.003 1.008 1.003 1.002 1.007 1.030
1.032 1.013 1.034
1.000 1.000 1.000
1.000
1.000
1.007 1.007 1.023
1.008 1.007 1.016
1.001 1.003 1.009
1.015 1.002 1.006
AVERAGE AVERAGE EXCL HI/LO 3 YR AVG. 5 YR AVG EXCL HI/LO
2.337 1.373 1.188 2.345 1.370 1.190 2.832 1.498 1.230 2.717 1.474 1.216 LAST YR SELECTED 2.675 1.444 1.207 SELECTED 2.558 1.429 1.206 CUMULATIVE 7.277 2.845 1.991 *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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276 TO ULT.
1.004
APPENDIX C PAGE 1 OF 3
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF DISCOUNT FACTORS WORKERS' COMPENSATION
(1)
(2)
(3)
Incremental payments
(4) Remaining Payments at Beginning of Period
Payment Year
Cumulative Payment Pattern
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
13.7% 35.1% 50.2% 60.6% 68.4% 75.8% 79.6% 83.2% 85.5% 87.7% 89.8% 91.3% 92.7% 93.7% 94.7% 95.5% 96.3% 97.1% 97.8% 98.4% 99.1% 99.4% 99.6% 100.0% 100.0%
13.7% 21.4% 15.1% 10.3% 7.8% 7.4% 3.9% 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
100.0% 86.3% 64.9% 49.8% 39.4% 31.6% 24.2% 20.4% 16.8% 14.5% 12.3% 10.2% 8.7% 7.3% 6.3% 5.3% 4.5% 3.7% 2.9% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
(5)
Discount Factor
(6) Present Value of Remaining Payments
(7) Present Value Discount Factor
0.985 0.957 0.929 0.902 0.875 0.850 0.825 0.801 0.778 0.755 0.733 0.712 0.691 0.671 0.651 0.632 0.614 0.596 0.579 0.562 0.546 0.530 0.514 0.499 0.485
87.9% 76.6% 57.2% 43.6% 34.4% 27.5% 20.9% 17.6% 14.5% 12.6% 10.7% 8.8% 7.6% 6.5% 5.6% 4.8% 4.1% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
0.879 0.888 0.882 0.876 0.873 0.870 0.860 0.862 0.860 0.866 0.869 0.870 0.876 0.882 0.891 0.900 0.911 0.921 0.931 0.942 0.952 0.954 0.966 0.985 1.000
Notes: (2) - Per County's historical payment patterns. (3) - Cumulative Payment Pattern for current year less Cumulative Payment Pattern for prior year. (4) = 1 - Cumulative Payment Pattern for prior year. (5) & (6) - Per AMI calculations. (7) = (6) / (4). Assumptions: Rate of Return: Starting Year: Ending Year:
3.0% 0 25
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ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW
APPENDIX C PAGE 2 OF 3
AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF DISCOUNT FACTORS WORKERS' COMPENSATION
(1)
(2)
(3)
Incremental payments
(4) Remaining Payments at Beginning of Period
Payment Year
Cumulative Payment Pattern
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
13.7% 35.1% 50.2% 60.6% 68.4% 75.8% 79.6% 83.2% 85.5% 87.7% 89.8% 91.3% 92.7% 93.7% 94.7% 95.5% 96.3% 97.1% 97.8% 98.4% 99.1% 99.4% 99.6% 100.0% 100.0%
13.7% 21.4% 15.1% 10.3% 7.8% 7.4% 3.9% 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
100.0% 86.3% 64.9% 49.8% 39.4% 31.6% 24.2% 20.4% 16.8% 14.5% 12.3% 10.2% 8.7% 7.3% 6.3% 5.3% 4.5% 3.7% 2.9% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
(5)
Discount Factor
(6) Present Value of Remaining Payments
(7) Present Value Discount Factor
0.983 0.950 0.918 0.887 0.857 0.828 0.800 0.773 0.746 0.721 0.697 0.673 0.650 0.628 0.607 0.587 0.567 0.548 0.529 0.511 0.494 0.477 0.461 0.446 0.430
86.2% 75.3% 56.1% 42.7% 33.7% 26.9% 20.4% 17.2% 14.1% 12.3% 10.4% 8.6% 7.4% 6.3% 5.5% 4.7% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
0.862 0.872 0.865 0.859 0.855 0.852 0.841 0.842 0.841 0.847 0.851 0.852 0.858 0.865 0.875 0.885 0.897 0.908 0.920 0.933 0.944 0.946 0.961 0.983 1.000
Notes: (2) - Per County's historical payment patterns. (3) - Cumulative Payment Pattern for current year less Cumulative Payment Pattern for prior year. (4) = 1 - Cumulative Payment Pattern for prior year. (5) & (6) - Per AMI calculations. (7) = (6) / (4). Assumptions: Rate of Return: Starting Year: Ending Year:
3.5% 0 25
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ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW
APPENDIX C PAGE 3 OF 3
AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 CALCULATION OF DISCOUNT FACTORS WORKERS' COMPENSATION
(1)
(2)
(3)
Incremental payments
(4) Remaining Payments at Beginning of Period
Payment Year
Cumulative Payment Pattern
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
13.7% 35.1% 50.2% 60.6% 68.4% 75.8% 79.6% 83.2% 85.5% 87.7% 89.8% 91.3% 92.7% 93.7% 94.7% 95.5% 96.3% 97.1% 97.8% 98.4% 99.1% 99.4% 99.6% 100.0% 100.0%
13.7% 21.4% 15.1% 10.3% 7.8% 7.4% 3.9% 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
100.0% 86.3% 64.9% 49.8% 39.4% 31.6% 24.2% 20.4% 16.8% 14.5% 12.3% 10.2% 8.7% 7.3% 6.3% 5.3% 4.5% 3.7% 2.9% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
(5)
Discount Factor
(6) Present Value of Remaining Payments
(7) Present Value Discount Factor
0.978 0.936 0.896 0.857 0.820 0.785 0.751 0.719 0.688 0.658 0.630 0.603 0.577 0.552 0.528 0.505 0.484 0.463 0.443 0.424 0.406 0.388 0.371 0.355 0.340
83.0% 72.7% 54.1% 41.1% 32.4% 25.8% 19.5% 16.4% 13.5% 11.8% 10.0% 8.3% 7.2% 6.1% 5.3% 4.5% 3.9% 3.2% 2.6% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
0.830 0.843 0.834 0.826 0.822 0.818 0.804 0.806 0.803 0.811 0.815 0.816 0.824 0.832 0.844 0.856 0.871 0.885 0.900 0.916 0.929 0.932 0.950 0.978 1.000
Notes: (2) - Per County's historical payment patterns. (3) - Cumulative Payment Pattern for current year less Cumulative Payment Pattern for prior year. (4) = 1 - Cumulative Payment Pattern for prior year. (5) & (6) - Per AMI calculations. (7) = (6) / (4). Assumptions: Rate of Return: Starting Year: Ending Year:
4.5% 0 25
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APPENDIX D
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 ANALYSIS OF NET UNDISCOUNTED RESERVE CHANGE WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
1. Estimated net undiscounted reserves at 6/30/2012
$50,076
2. Loss payments during 2013 for accident years 2012 and prior
($8,464)
3. Change in estimated ultimate losses for accident years 2012 and prior due to re-evaluation at 6/30/2013
($6,747)
4. Estimated ultimate losses for accident year 2013 5. Loss payments during 2013 for accident year 2013 6. Estimated net undiscounted reserves at 6/30/2013
Notes: (1) - Total from Table 1 of Buck Consultants Actuarial Report as of 6/30/2012 (2) - Total from Appendix H, Column (3). (3) - Total from Appendix C, Column (3). (4) - See Exhibit I, Page 1, Column (5), for accident year 2013. (5) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (6) = Sum of (1) through (5).
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$9,895 ($1,004)
$43,756
APPENDIX E
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 ANALYSIS OF NET UNDISCOUNTED RESERVE CHANGE WORKERS' COMPENSATION - PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
1. Estimated net undiscounted reserves at 6/30/2012 2. Loss payments during 2013 for accident years 2012 and prior 3. Change in estimated ultimate losses for accident years 2012 and prior due to re-evaluation at 6/30/2013
$1,223 ($884) $547
4. Estimated ultimate losses for accident year 2013
$0
5. Loss payments during 2013 for accident year 2013
$0
6. Estimated net undiscounted reserves at 6/30/2013
Notes: (1) - Total from Table I of Buck Consultants Report as of 6/30/2012 (2) - Total from Appendix I, Column (3). (3) - Total from Appendix H, Column (3). (4) - See Exhibit II, Page 1, Column (5), for accident year 2013. (5) - Per ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT. (6) = Sum of (1) through (5).
N:\Alameda County Transit\2013\WC\WC2013_PARATRANSIT\RECON 8/5/2013 1:34 PM
AMI Risk Consultants, Inc.
$886
APPENDIX F
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSSES WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSSES @6/30/2012 (1)
@6/30/2013 (2)
INCREASE OR DECREASE (3)
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6,647 3,805 4,761 4,251 5,089 4,678 4,416 4,789 6,235 4,899 5,985 9,038 9,125 10,560 15,391 17,838 14,242 11,717 8,796 5,576 6,690 8,671 7,311 10,389 9,879 11,262 10,560
$1,699 2,079 2,829 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,201 5,018 4,551 4,363 4,531 5,526 4,663 5,960 7,918 8,818 9,848 14,591 15,671 12,563 11,589 8,694 5,850 6,621 8,141 7,135 10,793 10,583 10,597 9,447
$1,699 2,079 2,829 (3,500) (58) (83) (50) (71) (127) (53) (258) (709) (236) (25) (1,120) (307) (712) (800) (2,167) (1,679) (128) (102) 274 (69) (530) (176) 404 704 (665) (1,113)
TOTAL
$222,598
$215,851
($6,747)
ACCIDENT YEARS*
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit I of Buck Consultants Actuarial Report as of 6/30/2012 (2) - Exhibit I, Page 1, Column (5). (3) = (2) - (1). *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year. N:\Alameda County Transit\2013\WC\WC2013_EXCL_PARATRANSIT\ULT_COMPARE 8/5/2013 1:32 PM
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APPENDIX G
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSSES WORKERS' COMPENSATION - PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSSES @6/30/2012 (1)
@6/30/2013 (2)
INCREASE OR DECREASE (3)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 135 137 234 76 0 2 233 1,340 141 120 561 28
$33 679 89 127 128 279 75 10 11 214 1,305 129 96 471 0
$33 679 (3) (8) (9) 45 (1) 10 9 (19) (35) (12) (24) (90) (28)
TOTAL
$3,099
$3,646
$547
ACCIDENT YEARS*
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit I of Buck Consultants Report as of 6/30/2012 (2) - Exhibit II, Page 1, Column (5). (3) = (2) - (1). *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
N:\Alameda County Transit\2013\WC\WC2013_PARATRANSIT\ULT_COMPARE 8/5/2013 1:34 PM
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APPENDIX H
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 COMPARISON OF PAID LOSSES WORKERS' COMPENSATION - EXCLUDING PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
PAID LOSSES @6/30/2012 (1)
@6/30/2013 (2)
INCREASE OR DECREASE (3)
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$6,567 3,754 4,692 4,189 5,015 4,605 4,342 4,669 6,027 4,611 5,739 7,778 8,394 9,486 13,427 14,759 12,223 9,950 7,190 4,457 4,802 5,851 4,733 5,923 4,737 3,481 1,121
$1,699 2,079 2,825 3,147 3,747 4,678 4,190 5,016 4,533 4,343 4,506 5,461 4,580 5,775 7,654 8,438 9,434 13,582 14,575 11,642 10,225 7,317 4,617 5,063 6,162 5,126 6,744 5,739 4,990 3,099
$1,699 2,079 2,825 (3,420) (7) (14) 1 1 (72) 1 (163) (566) (31) 36 (124) 44 (52) 155 (184) (581) 275 127 160 261 311 393 821 1,002 1,509 1,978
TOTAL
$172,522
$180,986
$8,464
ACCIDENT YEARS*
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit I of Buck Consultants Actuarial Report as of 6/30/2012 (2) - Exhibit I, Page 1, Column (6). (3) = (2) - (1). *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year. N:\Alameda County Transit\2013\WC\WC2013_EXCL_PARATRANSIT\PAID_COMPARE 8/5/2013 6:00 PM
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APPENDIX I
ALAMEDA-CONTRA COSTA TRANSIT DISTRICT SELF-INSURANCE PROGRAM ACTUARIAL REVIEW AS OF JUNE 30, 2013 COMPARISON OF PAID LOSSES WORKERS' COMPENSATION - PARATRANSIT ($AMTS IN THOUSANDS) - LIMITED TO RETENTION
PAID LOSSES @6/30/2012 (1)
@6/30/2013 (2)
INCREASE OR DECREASE (3)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
81 117 117 161 62 0 1 151 881 80 37 187 0
$32 660 81 117 117 204 62 0 1 161 950 83 42 250 0
$32 660 (0) (0) (0) 43 (0) 0 (0) 10 69 3 5 63 0
TOTAL
$1,876
$2,760
$884
ACCIDENT YEARS*
Notes: (1) - Per Exhibit I of Buck Consultants Report as of 6/30/2012 (2) - Exhibit II, Page 1, Column (6). (3) = (2) - (1). *All Accident Years are 12-month periods ending 6/30 of the stated year.
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Glossary of Terms Accident Year
Attributing to a given year the total cost of losses which occur in that year.
BornhuetterFerguson Approach (BFA)
Approach which combines reported and paid losses with the expected unreported and unpaid losses to estimate ultimate losses.
Case Reserve
Estimate of unpaid loss on reported claims.
Discount Reserve Expected Loss
The present value, calculated at selected interest rates and payout patterns, of the payment of outstanding losses.
Exposures multiplied by the loss rate.
Exposure Extent of risk and/or possibility of loss (for workers' compensation the exposure is payroll).
IBNR Reserve Incurred Loss Loss Adjustment Expenses (LAE)
Reserve for claims incurred but not reported and for future changes to the case reserves.
Paid loss plus the case reserve.
Loss adjustment expenses may be broken down into: Allocated and Unallocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE and ULAE). ALAE expenses are expenses (other than in-house administrative) for claims handling which can be identified as pertaining to a specific claim (such as outside legal expense). ULAE expenses are general administrative expenses such as salaries of employees.
Glossary of Terms (continued) Loss Development
Refer to the increase in number of claims, paid and incurred losses from a given accident year. The number of claims “develop” because in some cases, significant delay in the reporting losses occurs. Paid losses “develop” because claims are paid over several years. Incurred losses “develop” because of the increase in reported claims and because initial reserves tend to be inadequate at settlement.
Loss Development Approach (LDA)
Methods under which historical claim data are recorded and used to estimate the future development of existing claims.
Loss Rate
The value of losses per unit of exposure.
Paid Loss Amount paid on open and closed claims.
Ultimate Loss
The incurred loss plus the IBNR reserve. The ultimate loss is the estimate of the total cost to settle all claims in the accident year.
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