AC TRANSIT DISTRICT Board of Directors
GM Memo No. 10-064 Meeting Date: February 24, 2010
Committees: Operations Committee External Affairs Committee Board of Directors
Planning Committee Finance and Audit Committee Financing Corporation
SUBJECT: Proposed 2010 Fleet Composition Plan RECOMMENDED ACTION: Information Only
Briefing Item
Recommended Motion
Consider Approval of Proposed 2010 Fleet Composition Plan Fiscal Impact: To be determined. Background/Discussion: In October 2007, the AC Transit Board of Directors approved a revision to the 2007 Fleet Composition Plan originally adopted by the District in 2002. The 2007 revision centered on the relative merits of commuter coach fleet planning, and reduced the overall fleet size from the original estimates in the 2002 Plan. The fleet planning progression from 2002 to 2007 is illustrated below: 2002 Fleet Composition Plan – Forecast to 2013 Vehicle Size Requirement 30 152 40 603 60 97 MCI 73 Total 925 2007 Revised Fleet Composition Plan – Forecast to 2011 Vehicle Size Requirement 30 100 40 278 60 101 Transbay 193 *MCI 78 *Artic 10 *Dumbarton 12 *High Capacity (TBD) 33 *40-45 ft Suburban 60 Total 672
Rev. 1/10
GM Memo No. 10-064 Meeting Date: February 24, 2010 Page 2 of 4 The 2007 revision included a detailed breakdown of the proposed Transbay/Commuter coach fleet as shown in the table above. The current fleet of MCI commuter coaches is to be augmented by the purchase of thirty 45 foot Van Hool commuter coaches. It is anticipated that these vehicles will be placed in service throughout 2010 as they arrive from the manufacturer. Additionally, the fleet size for local services was adjusted accordingly. 2010 Fleet Composition Plan It is important to note that both the 2002 and 2007 Fleet Composition Plans were forecasts of required vehicles to the horizon years of 2013 and 2011 respectively. The 2010 Plan does not forecast to an outer year due to the inability to project service increases in ten year financial forecasting. The 2010 proposed fleet plan revises the 2007 plan by further reducing the overall fleet needs of the District for both Local and Transbay/Commuter services. Additionally, the 2010 revision specifically identifies fleet needs for the Rapid services. With the implementation of the March 2010 signup, the District will have an AM Peak fleet requirement of 493 vehicles, and a PM Peak fleet requirement of 486. The table below shows the sub-fleet breakdown based on the March 2010 service, showing the maximum peak requirement for each vehicle size category. 2010 Revised Fleet Composition Plan Actual Vehicle Size Vehicle Availability 30 91 30 (Broadway Shuttle) 4 40 320 60 92 Rapid 40 16 Rapid 60 19 Transbay 100 *MCI 78 *Dumbarton 12 Total 632
March 2010 Pull Requirements (Combination AM/PM) 75 3 251 80 14 16 74 65 9 513
Resulting Spare Ratio 21% 33% 27% 15% 14% 19% 35% 20% 33% 23%
Prior fleet planning exercises estimated that 193 vehicles would be required for a dedicated Transbay/Commuter fleet. The 2010 proposed plan reduces that number to 149, which includes a 20% spare ratio (30 coaches). The reasons for the differences include reassignment of articulated buses to Local service and reductions in service. As shown in the table above, the District will be operating in excess of the Federal Transit Administrations’ 20% spare ratio guideline. However, the District can comfortably dispose of 40 foot vehicles without having negative impacts on the fleet in general. Staff will coordinate vehicle disposal with the Maintenance Department.
GM Memo No. 10-064 Meeting Date: February 24, 2010 Page 3 of 4 Commuter Coach Criteria Plan The March 2010 service plan reduced Transbay services by approximately 18.7% as compared to Local service, which was reduced by 6.5%. While the Transbay reduction percentage is significantly higher than the rest of the District, it was accomplished by consolidating under-utilized trips, and reducing service spans on a line-by-line basis. As a result of these reductions, the Commuter Coach Allocation Plan has changed, and more lines are expected to receive MCI coaches on a regular basis. As a reminder, allocation of Commuter Coach buses (MCI’s) is based on an analysis of scheduled freeway running time. For the purposes of the March 2010 signup, staff used the last bus stop, not the last timepoint, and extrapolated the time difference and applied it accordingly. A comparison of the original plan as compared to the current plan is presented below: 2008 Commuter Coach Plan Transbay Line M U SB S CB SA LA NX1 NX2 2010 Revised Commuter Coach Plan Transbay Line S SB NX3 LA NX4 OX LC H CB L FS G Z U NX2 B
GM Memo No. 10-064 Meeting Date: February 24, 2010 Page 4 of 4 As shown above, there was a major re-organization of eligible lines based on the March 2010 service adjustments plan. Lines that will retain Commuter Coach deployment have been highlighted in the 2010 plan. The remaining non-highlighted lines are new additions to the list, based on a variety of reasons: • Schedule Changes – staff reviewed operating times for all Transbay lines, and adjustments were made based on on-time performance data from the Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) system. Specifically, the Line NX1 schedule was reduced based on APC data, which resulted in its elimination from the plan. • Line Splitting/Elimination – Line M was split into two segments based on the bridge it was crossing, which had an effect on the overall freeway running time; Line SA was eliminated. Title VI/Social Equity Analysis An equity analysis is scheduled to be completed after Board consideration of the 2010 Revised Fleet Plan. This analysis will include a review of each “sub-region” of the District, to ensure that no particular sub-region suffers disparate impacts due to fleet age issues. Service Development will work with the Maintenance Department to ensure that there is a uniform mix of vehicle deployment throughout the District. Preparation of the District Fleet Allocation Plan In prior fleet planning exercises, a 4 to 5 year fleet plan forecast was presented based on upcoming vehicle replacements and anticipated new service deployments. Given the uncertain nature of the District’s revenues at this point, and the mandate to utilize “expansion” service revenues to maintain existing service levels, Service Development staff is not forecasting service growth over the short term horizon of 2 to 3 years. Staff will coordinate with both the Capital Projects and Maintenance Departments to develop a Fleet Allocation Plan that will detail the vehicle replacement schedule over a 10 year horizon. A presentation to the Board will be provided upon completion of this analysis. Prior Relevant Board Actions/Policies: GC Memo 02-1117: Adoption of the Fleet Composition Plan GM Memo 07-140a: 2007 Revision to the Fleet Composition Plan GM Memo 08-087a: Revision to Suburban Bus Provisions of Fleet Deployment Plan GM Memo 08-125a: Commuter Coach Deployment Plan Attachments: None. Approved by: Prepared by: Contributors: Date Prepared:
Mary V. King, Interim General Manager Nancy Skowbo, DGM Service Development Cory LaVigne, Service and Operations Planning Manager Bill Coffel, Schedules Manager Linda Morris, Transportation Planner February 18, 2010
AC TRANSIT DISTRICT Board of Directors
GM Memo No. 10-064 (revised) Meeting Date: March 10, 2010
Committees: Operations Committee External Affairs Committee Board of Directors
Planning Committee Finance and Audit Committee Financing Corporation
SUBJECT: Proposed 2010 Fleet Allocation Plan RECOMMENDED ACTION: Information Only
Briefing Item
Recommended Motion
Consider Approval of Proposed 2010 Fleet Allocation Plan Fiscal Impact: To be determined. Background/Discussion: In October 2007, the AC Transit Board of Directors approved a revision to the 2007 Fleet Composition Plan originally adopted by the District in 2002. The 2007 revision centered on the relative merits of commuter coach fleet planning, and reduced the overall fleet size from the original estimates in the 2002 Plan. The fleet planning progression from 2002 to 2007 is illustrated below: 2002 Fleet Composition Plan – Forecast to 2013 Vehicle Size Requirement 30 152 40 603 60 97 MCI 73 Total 925 2007 Revised Fleet Composition Plan – Forecast to 2011 Vehicle Size Requirement 30 100 40 278 60 101 Transbay 193 *MCI 78 *Artic 10 *Dumbarton 12 *High Capacity (TBD) 33 *40-45 ft Suburban 60 Total 672 *These coaches are considered sub-fleets of the overall Transbay fleet
Rev. 1/10
GM Memo No. 10-064 (revised) Meeting Date: March 10, 2010 Page 2 of 5 The 2007 revision included a detailed breakdown of the proposed Transbay/Commuter coach fleet as shown in the table above. The current fleet of MCI commuter coaches is to be augmented by the purchase of thirty 45 foot Van Hool commuter coaches. It is anticipated that these vehicles will be placed in service throughout 2010 as they arrive from the manufacturer. Additionally, the fleet size for local services was adjusted accordingly. 2010 Fleet Allocation Plan It is important to note that both the 2002 and 2007 Fleet Composition Plans were forecasts of required vehicles to the horizon years of 2013 and 2011 respectively. The 2010 Plan does not forecast to an outer year due to the inability to project service increases in ten year financial forecasting. The 2010 proposed fleet plan revises the 2007 plan by further reducing the overall fleet needs of the District for both Local and Transbay/Commuter services. Additionally, the 2010 revision specifically identifies fleet needs for the Rapid services. With the implementation of the March 2010 signup, the District will have an AM Peak fleet requirement of 493 vehicles, and a PM Peak fleet requirement of 486. The table below shows the sub-fleet breakdown based on the March 2010 service, showing the maximum peak requirement for each vehicle size category. 2010 Revised Fleet Allocation Plan Actual Vehicle Size Count 86 30 4 30 (Broadway Shuttle) 312 40 90 60 16 Rapid 40 19 Rapid 60 93 Transbay 77 *45' Commuter (MCI) 16 *Dumbarton Total 620
March 2010 Pull Requirements 75 3 251 80 14 16 74 65 9 513
Resulting Spare Ratio 15% 33% 24% 13% 14% 19% 20% 18% 78% 21%
*These coaches are considered sub-fleets of the overall Transbay fleet
Prior fleet planning exercises estimated that 193 vehicles would be required for a dedicated Transbay/Commuter fleet. The 2010 proposed plan reduces that number to 149, which includes a 20% spare ratio (30 coaches). The reasons for the differences include reassignment of articulated buses to Local service and reductions in service. As shown in the table above, the District will be operating in excess of the Federal Transit Administrations’ 20% spare ratio guideline. However, the District can comfortably dispose of 40 foot vehicles without having negative impacts on the fleet in general. Staff will coordinate vehicle disposal with the Maintenance Department.
GM Memo No. 10-064 (revised) Meeting Date: March 10, 2010 Page 3 of 5 Commuter Coach Criteria Plan The March 2010 service plan reduced Transbay services by approximately 18.7% as compared to Local service, which was reduced by 6.5%. While the Transbay reduction percentage is significantly higher than the rest of the District, it was accomplished by consolidating under-utilized trips, and reducing service spans on a line-by-line basis. As a result of these reductions, the Commuter Coach Allocation Plan has changed, and more lines are expected to receive MCI coaches on a regular basis. As a reminder, allocation of Commuter Coach buses (MCI’s) is based on an analysis of scheduled freeway running time. For the purposes of the March 2010 signup, staff used the last bus stop, not the last timepoint, and extrapolated the time difference and applied it accordingly. A comparison of the original plan as compared to the current plan is presented below: 2008 Commuter Coach Plan Transbay Line M U SB S CB SA LA NX1 NX2 2010 Revised Commuter Coach Plan Transbay Line S SB NX3 LA NX4 OX LC H CB L FS G Z U V** W** NX2** DA**
GM Memo No. 10-064 (revised) Meeting Date: March 10, 2010 Page 4 of 5 2010 Revised Commuter Coach Plan, Continued Transbay Line P** C** NX** E** As shown above, there was a major re-organization of eligible lines based on the March 2010 service adjustments plan. Most lines that previously had these assignments will retain Commuter Coach after March 2010. The lines below are those whose changes have resulted in re-classification and as such are no longer eligible for Commuter Coach assignment. The rationale and lines are: •
•
Schedule Changes – staff reviewed operating times for all Transbay lines, and adjustments were made based on on-time performance data from the Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) system. Specifically, the Line NX1 schedule was reduced based on APC data, which resulted in its elimination from the plan. Line Splitting/Elimination – Line M was split into two segments based on the bridge it was crossing, which had an effect on the overall freeway running time; Line SA was eliminated.
**The lines that are highlighted will be brought on-line with the staggered delivery of the 30 new 45 foot Van Hool coaches as they are delivered. Upon delivery of these coaches, there are only 5 lines (NX1, B, BA, J, M) remaining for deployment of commuter coaches. Title VI/Social Equity Analysis An equity analysis is scheduled to be completed after Board consideration of the 2010 Revised Fleet Plan. This analysis will include a review of each “sub-region” of the District, to ensure that no particular sub-region suffers disparate impacts due to fleet age issues. Service Development will work with the Maintenance Department to ensure that there is a uniform mix of vehicle deployment throughout the District. Preparation of the District Fleet Composition Plan In prior fleet planning exercises, a 4 to 5 year fleet plan forecast was presented based on upcoming vehicle replacements and anticipated new service deployments. Given the uncertain nature of the District’s revenues at this point, and the mandate to utilize “expansion” service revenues to maintain existing service levels, Service Development staff is not forecasting service growth over the short term horizon of 2 to 3 years. Staff will coordinate with both the Capital Projects and Maintenance Departments to develop a Fleet Allocation Plan that will detail the vehicle replacement schedule over a 10 year horizon. A presentation to the Board will be provided upon completion of this analysis.
GM Memo No. 10-064 (revised) Meeting Date: March 10, 2010 Page 5 of 5 Prior Relevant Board Actions/Policies: GC Memo 02-1117: Adoption of the Fleet Composition Plan GM Memo 07-140a: 2007 Revision to the Fleet Composition Plan GM Memo 08-087a: Revision to Suburban Bus Provisions of Fleet Deployment Plan GM Memo 08-125a: Commuter Coach Deployment Plan Attachments: None. Approved by:
Mary V. King, Interim General Manager Nancy Skowbo, DGM Service Development
Prepared by:
Cory LaVigne, Service and Operations Planning Manager
Contributors:
Bill Coffel, Schedules Manager Linda Morris, Transportation Planner
Date Prepared:
March 2, 2010
